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STATE BUDGET UPDATE Fiscal Analysts SeminarSTATE BUDGET UPDATE Presentation at the Fiscal Analysts...
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STATE BUDGET UPDATESTATE BUDGET UPDATEPresentation at the Presentation at the
Fiscal Analysts SeminarFiscal Analysts SeminarSalt Lake City, UtahSalt Lake City, Utah
Arturo PérezProgram Director
NCSL Fiscal Affairs Program
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OverviewBetter state fiscal conditions
Few budget gapsg g pStronger revenue performanceRising year-end balances
State budgets remain vulnerableFederal deficit reduction actionsSpending pressuresSluggish economic recovery
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Cumulative State Budget Gaps: FY 2002-FY 2014
$28.2$160
$180
$200
s
Amount Before Budget Adoption Amount After Budget Adoption Projected
$100
$120
$140
of D
olla
rs
$145.9
$ $91 0
$29.9
$5.3 $77.0$12.3 $6.8
$60
$80
$100
Bill
ions
o
$49.1$78.4
$36.3 $26.9$40.3
$83.9 $91.0
$37.2
$0.7
$12.8$32.2
$12.2$0
$20
$40
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
B
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years.
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Revenue and Spending Growthp g
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, summer 2012
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State Year-End Balances FY 2007 to FY 2013 (projected)(p j )
12.0%12%
14%
ture
s
All Jurisdictions
4 8%
8.0%
%
8%
10%
%
GF
Expe
ndit
4.8%
2%
4%
6%
EB a
s a
% o
f
0%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YE
Fiscal Year
All Jurisdictions
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years.
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State Year-End Balances FY 2007 to FY 2013 (projected)(p j )
11 0%10%
12%
ture
s
W/O: AK and TX
11.0%
6%
8%
10%
GF
Expe
ndit
1 8%
4.4%
2%
4%
EB a
s a
% o
f
1.8%0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YE
Fiscal Year
W/O: AK and TX
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years.
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State Year-End Balances FY 2007 to FY 2013 (projected)(p j )
11.4%
10%
12%
ture
s
W/O: AK, CA, IL and TX
5.1%6%
8%
10%
GF
Expe
ndit
4.1%
5.1%
2%
4%
EB a
s a
% o
f
0%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YE
Fiscal Year
W/O: AK, CA, IL and TX
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years.
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State Year-End Balances FY 2007 to FY 2013 (projected)(p j )
12.0%
11 0%
11.4%
10%
12%
14%
ture
s
4.8%
8.0%11.0%
5.1%6%
8%
10%
GF
Expe
ndit
1 8%
4.4%4.1%
5.1%
2%
4%
EB a
s a
% o
f
1.8%0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YE
Fiscal Year
All Jurisdictions W/O: AK and TX W/O: AK, CA, IL and TX
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years.
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FY 2012 Year-End Balances(as a percentage of general fund spending)
AK
WA ME
O
(as a percentage of general fund spending)
MT ND
MN
IL NH
WI
PA
OR
OH
NY
WY
NEIA
MI
INWV
VT
SD
MN
NV
ID
CA
NJAR
KYMA
AZ
NC
WV
SC
RIHICO
UT
NM
KS
OK
MO
TN
VA
CT
GAMS
FL
DC10 percent or more 115% to 9.9% 19
DE
MDTX LA
AL
0.1% to 4.9% 17Zero balance 3Negative balance 2
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, summer 2012
PR
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State Economic Outlook for FY 2013
30
35 33
ctio
ns
20
25
30
s/Ju
risdi
c
10
15 117r o
f Sta
te
0
5 07
Num
be
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, summer 2012
Pessimistic Concerned Stable Optimistic
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AK State Economic Outlook for FY 2013WA ME
O
MT ND
MN
IL NH
WI
PA
OR
OH
NY
WY
NEIA
MI
INWV
VT
SD
MN
NV
ID
CA
CT
NJAR
KYMA
AZ
NC
WV
SC
RIHICO
UT
NM
KS
OK
MO
TN
VA
AL GAMS
FL
DC
DE
MDTX LA
Optimistic 7
Concerned 11
PR
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, summer 2012
Stable 33
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Top FY 2013 ChallengesTop FY 2013 Challenges
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Recovery(recessionary impact on general fund revenue collections)(recessionary impact on general fund revenue collections)
$350
Recession of 1991
$250
$300
llars
$
$150
$200
illio
ns o
f Do
$0
$50
$100Bi
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years.
$01 2 3 4 5
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Recovery(recessionary impact on general fund revenue collections)(recessionary impact on general fund revenue collections)
$560
Recession of 2001‐02
$520
$540
olla
rs
$
$480
$500
lions
of D
o
$420
$440
$460Bil
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years.
$4201 2 3 4 5
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Weakovery(recessionary impact on general fund revenue collections)(recessionary impact on general fund revenue collections)
$670
The Great Recession
$640
$650
$660
lars
$610
$620
$630
llion
s of
Dol
$
$580
$590
$600Bi
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years.
$5701 2 3 4 5
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ConclusionState budgets are better positioned than in previous years
More Revenue FlexibilityMore Revenue Flexibility
Reserves are Rising
The Economic Outlook is Stable
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ConclusionState budgets still face considerable challenges:State budgets still face considerable challenges:
L kl tFederal Actions Unemplo mentLackluster
Revenue Growth
Actions Unemployment
PensionsMedicaid
Pensions
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For More Information NCSL Homepage:
www ncsl orgwww.ncsl.org
NCSL Budget & Tax Homepage:www ncsl org/fiscalwww.ncsl.org/fiscal
State Budget Update: Summer 2012 (available online)
State Tax Update: August 2012 (available online)
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Th k YThank You