Starwood Investment Proposition and 3-Year Outlook
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Transcript of Starwood Investment Proposition and 3-Year Outlook
©2013 STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, INC. | Proprietary & Confidential
THE STARWOOD INVESTMENT PROPOSITION
VASANT PRABHU // VICE CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
142
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS These presentations contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities regulations. These forward-looking statements generally can be identified by phrases such as Starwood or its management “believes,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “foresees,” “forecasts,” “estimates” or other words or phrases of similar import. Similarly, statements in this release that describe the Company’s business strategy, outlook, objectives, plans, intentions or goals also are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated at the time the forward-looking statements are made. Future results, performance and achievements may be affected by general economic conditions including the severity and duration of any downturn in the US or global economy, the impact of war and terrorist activity, business and financing conditions, including the availability of mortgage financing, foreign exchange fluctuations, cyclicality of the real estate, including the sale of residential units, and the hotel and vacation ownership businesses, operating risks associated with the sale of residential units, hotel and vacation ownership businesses, relationships with associates, customers and property owners, the impact of the internet reservation channels, our reliance on technology, domestic and international political and geopolitical conditions, competition, governmental and regulatory actions (including the impact of changes in U.S. and foreign tax laws and their interpretation), travelers’ fears of exposure to contagious diseases, risk associated with the level of our indebtedness, risk associated with potential acquisitions and dispositions, and other circumstances and uncertainties. There can also be no assurance that agreements will be entered into for the hotels in the Company’s pipeline and, if entered into, the timing of any agreement and the opening of the related hotel. These risks and uncertainties are presented in detail in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Although we believe the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance that our expectations will be attained or that results will not materially differ. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Please note that these presentations include non-GAAP financial measures. For definitions of certain terms used herein and a presentation of the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP and a reconciliation of the differences between the non-GAAP financial measure disclosed and the most comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, please refer to the Company’s web site at www.starwoodhotels.com.corporate/investor_relations.html.
The Starwood Transformation
17%
Owning Hotels Owning Relationships
STARWOOD 2000
Fees
62% 80% Fees Fees
Owned/ SVO/Other
TRANSFORMING EVENTS » Sold 122 Owned hotels since 2000 for $8.3 billion » Transforming transaction: Sale of 33 hotels (16k rooms) to Host in 2006 for $4.1 billion; distribution of $2.8 billion
to shareholders
STARWOOD 2012 2016 TARGET
Note: Percentages represent Earnings before selling, general and administrative expenses and exclude earnings from Bal Harbour Fee earnings represents Management fees, Franchise fee and Other Income
Owned/ SVO/Other
Owned/ SVO/Other
143
The Starwood Transformation
37% 63%
U.S Centric Global Enterprise
STARWOOD 2000
Non U.S. 56% 44% 80%
20%
TRANSFORMING EVENTS » Added 492 net Managed and Franchised hotels (139k rooms) since 2000, 63% (88k rooms) outside the U.S. » Transforming transaction: Acquisition of Le Méridien, 122 hotels (32k rooms), 95% non-U.S., ~$50M fees for $250M
STARWOOD 2012 TARGET
Note: Percentages represent hotel fee business; pro forma for implied fee on owned hotel gross operating revenue
U.S. Non U.S. U.S. Non U.S.
U.S.
144
The Starwood Transformation Price Point Segmentation Lifestyle Segmentation
» Uncompromising » Address » Bespoke
» Flirty » Insider » Escape
» Culture » Indigenous » Experience
» Warm » Comforting » Connections
» Personal » Instinctive » Renewal
» Chic » Cultured » Discovery
» Honest » Uncomplicated » Comfort
» Sassy » Refreshing » Oasis
» Smart » Renewing » Haven
Starwood Preferred Guest Transformation
2012
Launch of W 1998
Westin “Heavenly” Launch 1999
Sheraton Revitalization 2007
Launch of Aloft and Element 2008
Global Expansion of W 2009
Crossover Rewards 2013
TRACK RECORD OF INNOVATION
145
Results
The Starwood Transformation
»Higher Growth Trajectory »Lower Cyclicality »Higher Margins »Higher Capital Efficiency »Significant Cash Generation
Superior Shareholder Value Creation
146
The Starwood Transformation
S&P 98%
MAR 164%
HOT 256%
10-Year Total Shareholder Return
Superior Shareholder Value Creation
Source: Bloomberg. Represents 10-year total shareholder returns from 31-Dec-02 through 31-Dec-12 with monthly returns and reinvestment in security 147
The Starwood Investment Proposition » Leading Global Hotel Company in High Growth Markets
» Best Global High End Lodging Brands
» High Quality Global Pipeline
» High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfolio
» Unmatched Global Platform
» Extraordinary Cash Generation Potential
LE ROYAL MERIDIEN ABU DHABI
SHERATON ABU DHABI HOTEL & RESORT
148
The Most Global Hotel Company
As of 31-Dec-12
1,134 Properties and 335,415 Rooms in Nearly 100 Countries
LEADING HOTEL COMPANY IN HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
U.S. 47%
Starwood
U.S. 78%
Hilton
U.S. 69%
Hyatt
U.S. 78%
Marriott
(Rooms)
Greater China Asia Europe Africa / Middle East Latin America / Canada 149
Upper-Upscale,
75%
Geographical ly Wel l Balanced High End Hotel Platform
As of 31-Dec-12
U.S. 44%
Fees by Brand Fees by Region
LEADING HOTEL COMPANY IN HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
Upper Upscale: Westin, Sheraton, Le Méridien
Luxury: W Hotels, St. Regis, Luxury Collection
Select Serve: Aloft, Element, Four Points
Greater China Asia Europe
Africa / Middle East Latin America / Canada
150
Leadership in High Growth Markets
36 20 9 9
HOT MAR HLT H31 18 18 15
HOT MAR HLT H
GREATER CHINA
21 11 16 5
HOT MAR HLT H
MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA ASIA (EX GREATER CHINA)
13 9 6 3
HOT MAR HLT H
LATIN AMERICA
Room
s (00
0s)
Sources: Smith Travel Research as of December 2012, company data
41
102
104
155
H
MAR
HLT
HOT
Non-U.S. Operating Luxury / Upper Upscale Rooms (in 000s)
LEADING HOTEL COMPANY IN HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
151
The World is Changing in our Favor
2011–2030 CAGR
5%
3%
5%
3% Europe
Asia Pacific
Americas
Africa Middle East
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f To
urist
Arri
vals
(in
milli
ons)
TOURIST ARRIVALS BY ORIGIN » Our global footprint positions
us to take advantage of changing global travel patterns
» 3 billion people entering the global economy
» Regional travel patterns are evolving
» Enormous outbound travel opportunity from Growth Markets
» Rise of the “Mega Traveler”
Source: World Tourism Organization UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2012 Edition; UNWTO “Tourism towards 2030”
LEADING HOTEL COMPANY IN HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
152
Americas Division
» Joined Starwood through Vistana Resorts in 1989
» Co-President of Americas
Sergio Rivera Osvaldo Librizzi
» Joined Starwood in 1975 at the Sheraton Buenos Aires
» Co-President of Americas
LEADING HOTEL COMPANY IN HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
Current Pipeline implies growth of +10%
St. Regis Luxury Collection W Le Méridien Westin Sheraton Four Points
by Sheraton Aloft Element Other Total Operating
United States Hotels 10 13 26 8 102 186 87 45 10 3 490 Rooms 2,294 3,912 8,245 2,113 44,538 69,113 13,814 6,607 1,641 561 152,838 Latin America & Canada Hotels 4 10 4 5 29 51 37 4 - - 144 Rooms 558 719 742 628 10,087 17,621 5,682 559 - - 36,596
As of 31-Dec-12 153
Asia Pacific Division
Stephen Ho
» Joined Starwood at Sheraton Brunei in 1981
» President of Asia Pacific
LEADING HOTEL COMPANY IN HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
Current Pipeline implies growth of +78%
Qian Jin
St. Regis Luxury Collection W Le Méridien Westin Sheraton Four Points
by Sheraton Aloft Element Other Total Operating
China Hotels 5 4 1 7 15 55 17 5 - - 109 Rooms 1,380 811 392 2,535 5,341 22,715 5,293 1,023 - - 39,490 Asia Hotels 4 17 7 22 25 42 12 5 - - 134 Rooms 812 4,270 1,520 5,487 7,788 14,634 2,958 860 - - 38,329
» Joined Starwood at Sheraton Shanghai in 1986
» President of Greater China
As of 31-Dec-12 154
Europe, Africa and the Middle East (EAME)
» Joined Starwood at Sheraton Brussels in 1982
» President of EAME since
Guido de Wilde Hassan Ahdab
» Joined Le Méridien in 1977
» Vice-President, Regional Director of Operations, Africa & Indian Ocean
» Joined Sheraton in 1983 in Belgium and relocated to Bahrain in 1984
» SVP, Regional Director – Middle East
LEADING HOTEL COMPANY IN HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
Current Pipeline implies growth of +36%
Roeland Vos
St. Regis Luxury Collection W Le Méridien Westin Sheraton Four Points
by Sheraton Aloft Element Other Total Operating
Europe Hotels 4 36 5 26 18 61 11 2 - 1 164 Rooms 484 5,270 1,029 7,630 5,923 16,913 1,848 402 - 165 39,664 Africa & Middle East Hotels 3 5 1 28 3 32 7 1 - - 80 Rooms 885 1,384 441 6,954 949 8,788 1,329 408 - - 21,138
As of 31-Dec-12 155
AL MAHA DESERT RESORT & SPA, DUBAI
ALOFT ABU DHABI
The Starwood Investment Proposition » Leading Global Hotel Company in High Growth Markets
» Best Global High End Lodging Brands
» High Quality Global Pipeline
» High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfolio
» Unmatched Global Platform
» Extraordinary Cash Generation Potential
156
Best Global High End Lodging Brands
Source: Smith Travel Research, Company reports. Third party logos displayed are the trademarks of their respective third party owners. Such logos are referenced for informational purposes only and not intended to indicate any affiliation, association, or endorsement.
BEST GLOBAL LODGING BRANDS
35K 59%
Luxu
ry
Starwood
Uppe
r Ups
cale
% Rooms Outside
U.S.
251K 54%
Marriott
50K 52%
Hilton
18K 51%
Hyatt
29K 64%
249K 31%
245K 39%
74K 30%
% Rooms Outside
U.S.
157
Fastest Growing Luxury Brand Portfol io BEST GLOBAL LODGING BRANDS
Starwood Luxury Brands » Added 17k net luxury rooms globally since 2007 » W, the most successful new brand launch in the hotel industry, now at 44 hotels globally » St. Regis has grown from 1 iconic New York hotel to 30 hotels since 1999 » Luxury Collection offers unique experiences in over 80 locations across 30 countries
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2012 -
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2012
HOT Luxury Brands
Room
s (00
0s)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2012
Room
s (00
0s)
Room
s (00
0s)
Four Seasons MAR Luxury Brands
Source: Smith Travel Research, Luxury Hotel Rooms. 2007 MAR pro forma for JW Marriott
+ 92%
+ 18%
+ 32%
158
Largest Global Portfol io of Upper-Upscale Brands
BEST GLOBAL LODGING BRANDS
Starwood Upper-Upscale Brands » 250K Upper-Upscale Rooms globally in
89 countries » Sheraton: Leading Global five-star brand,
with more rooms outside the U.S. and Europe than any other competitor
» Westin: Top North American Upper-Upscale brand expanding rapidly outside the U.S.
» Le Méridien: With deep roots in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, re-energized into a unique and compelling global brand since 2007
240
245
250
HOT UpperUpscale
Hilton UpperUpscale
MAR UpperUpscale
2012
Room
s (00
0s)
Source: Smith Travel Research, Upper Upscale Hotel Rooms 159
Different iated Select Serve Brands Growing Global ly
05
101520253035404550
2007 2012
Four Points Aloft
Room
s (00
0s)
Starwood Select Serve Brands » Rooms have almost doubled globally
since 2007
» Four Points by Sheraton has experienced dramatic non-U.S. growth and already has 55% of rooms outside the U.S.
» Aloft, a highly differentiated select serve brand, has grown to 62 hotels since its launch in 2007 with 33% of rooms outside the U.S.
BEST GLOBAL LODGING BRANDS
As of 31-Dec-12 160
LE MÉRIDIEN MINA SEYAHI BEACH RESORT & MARINA
GROSVENOR HOUSE
The Starwood Investment Proposition » Leading Global Hotel Company in High Growth Markets
» Best Global High End Lodging Brands
» High Quality Global Pipeline
» High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfolio
» Unmatched Global Platform
» Extraordinary Cash Generation Potential
161
High Quality 100K room (400 hotel) global pipeline
Sources: Smith Travel Research Pipeline reports: Total Pipeline, company data
HIGH QUALITY GLOBAL PIPELINE AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITY
87%
76%
60%
47%
Starwood
Hyatt
Hilton
Marriott
Outside of U.S. (% of Pipeline)
67%
66%
37%
36%
Starwood
Hyatt
Marriott
Hilton
Upper Upscale / Lux (% of Pipeline)
162
Well Posi t ioned to take advantage of Global Growth
Sources: IMF 5-Year Nominal GDP Growth, Starwood pipeline data (mix by rooms)
25%
44%
20% 16%
19%
13%
19%
7% 10%
6% 7%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
I I I I I I I I I I I I
Greater China Asia (excludingGreater China)
U.S. Europe Latin America &Canada
Africa / Middle East
HIGH QUALITY GLOBAL PIPELINE AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITY
% of 5-year Global GDP Growth % of Starwood Room Pipeline
163
Global Growth fueled by all Nine Brands HIGH QUALITY GLOBAL PIPELINE AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITY
05
101520253035
Sheraton Four Points bySheraton
Westin Aloft W Le Meridien St. Regis Luxury Collection Element
Pipeline by Brand
U.S. Greater China Asia ex China Europe Africa/ Middle East Latin America/ Canada
Room
s (00
0s)
As of 31-Dec-12 164
10-year track record of 5% Net Rooms Growth
100
200
300
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
5% Net Rooms Growth Operating
Rooms
HIGH QUALITY GLOBAL PIPELINE AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITY
165
FOUR POINTS BY SHERATON SHEIKH ZAYED ROAD, DUBAI
FOUR POINTS BY SHERATON DOWNTOWN DUBAI
The Starwood Investment Proposition » Leading Global Hotel Company in High Growth Markets
» Best Global High End Lodging Brands
» High Quality Global Pipeline
» High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfolio
» Unmatched Global Platform
» Extraordinary Cash Generation Potential
166
High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfol io HIGH VALUE GLOBAL OWNED PORTFOLIO
25 TOP OWNED/LEASED HOTELS (~90% OWNED/LEASED EARNINGS)
U.S. / Canada
Asia Europe Latin America
• Sheraton On The Park, Sydney
• Sheraton Fiji Resort
• Westin Denarau , Fiji
• Sheraton Rio
• Sheraton Maria Isabel, Mexico
• Sheraton Buenos Aires
• Sheraton Lima
• St. Regis Grand, Rome
• Gritti Palace, Venice
• Hotel Alfonso XIII, Seville
• W Barcelona
• W London
• Westin Excelsior, Rome
• Sheraton Park Lane, London
• St. Regis New York
• St. Regis San Francisco
• St. Regis Bal Harbour
• The Phoenician, Arizona
• W New Orleans
• W NY – Times Square
• Westin Maui
• Westin SFO
• Sheraton Centre Toronto
• Sheraton Gateway Toronto
• Le Centre Sheraton Montreal
Based on Projected 2013 Earnings 167
Well Diversified Globally
ST. REGIS BAL HARBOUR
WESTIN EXCELSIOR, ROME BY DIVISION
HIGH VALUE GLOBAL OWNED PORTFOLIO
Europe
Asia U.S.
Based on 2012 owned earnings assuming Owned hotel set as of January 31st, 2013
Latin America / Canada
168
ST. REGIS NEW YORK
HOTEL GRITTI PALACE, VENICE
BY PROPERTY TYPE
HIGH VALUE GLOBAL OWNED PORTFOLIO
Based on 2012 owned earnings assuming Owned hotel set as of January 31st, 2013
Convention
Resort Urban
Airport
In High Barrier to Entry Urban and Resort Markets
169
Unlocking Value from Asset Sales STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
$275k/room = $4.8B
$300k/room = $5.2B
$325k/room = $5.6B
$/Room
14x = $4.4B
15x = $4.7B
16x = $5.0B
Adj. Earnings Multiple
To estimate cash proceeds, valuations will need to be adjusted for leases (20% of rooms), capital needs for certain hotels and any cash taxes on gains. Actual proceeds may vary depending on market conditions.
HIGH LEVEL VALUATION SCENARIOS
Owned Rooms ~14,800 Leased Rooms ~2,500
Note: Adjusted earnings represents Owned/Leased hotel operating revenue less operating expenses, pro forma for management fee on gross revenue. Value based on average EBITDA 2013-2015. 170
Unlock ing Value f rom UJVs and Non-EBITDA Producing Assets
KEY UNCONSOLIDATED JOINT VENTURES (>85% UJV EBITDA)
Asia Pacific North America
Latin America Non-EBITDA Producing Assets
UJV Rooms ~8,485 UJV EBITDA (HOT share) ~$70M
Hotel Rooms Ownership St. Regis Beijing, China 258 32% W Maldives 78 50% Sheraton Hong Kong 782 25% Sheraton Royal Orchid, Bangkok 726 44% Sheraton Imperial Kuala Lumpur 385 49% Sheraton Maldives 156 45%
Hotel Rooms Ownership
St. Regis Punta Mita 120 40% W Mexico City 237 50%
Hotel Rooms Ownership
Sheraton New Orleans Hotel 1,110 47% Sheraton Seattle Hotel 1,258 22% Westin Savannah 403 49% Westin Bellevue 337 17%
Land Holdings
Sardinia Atlanta Buckhead
Maui, HI Avon, CO
Orlando, FL Aruba, NA
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
171
LE MERIDIEN DUBAI
LE ROYAL MERIDIEN ABU DHABI
The Starwood Investment Proposition » Leading Global Hotel Company in High Growth Markets
» Best Global High End Lodging Brands
» High Quality Global Pipeline
» High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfolio
» Unmatched Global Platform
» Extraordinary Cash Generation Potential
172
Global Infrastructure – the Power of Starwood
INDIVIDUAL SPIRIT, COLLECTIVE STRENGTH
OPERATIONS REVENUE
MANAGEMENT SALES
Central Marketing Delivery
SPG & PARTNERSHIPS
BRAND / FIELD MARKETING
& PR
UNMATCHED GLOBAL PLATFORM
173
SPG & PARTNERSHIPS
BRAND / FIELD MARKETING
& PR
CENTRAL MARKETING DELIVERY
Global Infrastructure - Capabil i t ies
UNMATCHED GLOBAL PLATFORM
» Starwood centrally influences 71% of Room Nights
» Digital Channels ~25%
» Starwood influenced property direct ~23%
» Customer Contact Centers ~13%
» Global Distribution Services (GDS) ~10%
» 54% growth in SPG members globally since 2007
» 47% of SPG members come from outside the U.S.
» SPG share of occupancy is > 50% at a 25% ADR premium globally
» Key partnership across industries – Travel (Delta), Finance (Amex), F&B (Coca-Cola), Entertainment (Live Nation), Sports (U.S. Open), and Retail (Pottery Barn)
» Starwood’s internal marketing agency, Field Marketing, provides localized support to individual hotel business needs
» Currently 94% of Starwood hotels in North America opt into program
» Delivers on average $25 for every $1 spent on investment for participating hotels
174
Global Infrastructure - Capabil i t ies
SALES
REVENUE MANAGEMENT
OPERATIONS
UNMATCHED GLOBAL PLATFORM
» Starwood B2B Sales drives ~70% of Revenue
» >5,000 sellers deployed against customers’ teams and buying patterns
» Adding resources in key markets, including BRIC, Eastern Europe, and South Africa
» Multi-million dollar investment in cutting-edge revenue management technology
» Implementation of effective pricing and inventory strategies
» Corporate, divisional, regional and area-based RM experts work with hotels
» Best-in-class hotel operations teams
» 3,500 restaurants and bars Systemwide
» Sustainability strategy which targets 30% energy reduction and 20% water reduction by 2020
175
Best Global Team
Mexico City
Buenos Aires
Toronto
Honolulu
Sydney
London
Madrid Milan
Tokyo
Bangkok Singapore
New Delhi
Vienna
Brussels
Dubai
Seattle Chicago
Atlanta Shanghai
Kuala Lumpur
Miami
New York
3 Divisions 6 Regions Cross-functional teams at Divisions/Regions
Global Structure
% Born outside U.S: 39% % Working outside home country: 37% Avg. Starwood Tenure:16 years
Leadership 100 Demographics
UNMATCHED GLOBAL PLATFORM
Orlando
Scottsdale
176
THE WESTIN ABU DHABI GOLF RESORT & SPA
SHERATON DUBAI CREEK HOTEL & TOWERS
The Starwood Investment Proposition » Leading Global Hotel Company in High Growth Markets
» Best Global High End Lodging Brands
» High Quality Global Pipeline
» High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfolio
» Unmatched Global Platform
» Extraordinary Cash Generation Potential
177
Cash From Hotel Operations EXTRAORDINARY CASH GENERATION POTENTIAL
Note: Excludes cash from Timeshare and Bal Harbour
$815
$531 $596
$694 $738
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$3.4B of Cash from Hotel Operations since 2008 Invested Capital of $1.8B in Hotel Business since 2008
$428
$236 $265
$462 $417
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Hotel Earnings – Includes Owned, Fees and Other Earnings less SG&A and Gain Amortization
Capital – Includes Maintenance and Development Capital
178
Cash from Timeshare Operations & Bal Harbour EXTRAORDINARY CASH GENERATION POTENTIAL
($150)
$275 $182 $150 $177
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
($133) ($68)
($127) ($29)
$461
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Timeshare – Net Cash Bal Harbour – Net Cash
Net Cash Flow – Includes all timeshare cash receipts and expenses, securitization proceeds, capital and SPG point cost
Net Cash Flow – Includes cash from closings, construction capital (both residential and hotel), S&M expenses and developer liability costs
179
Cash from Asset Sales
$238M $148M
$312M
$548M
$1.25B
2009 2010 2011 2012 Total 2009-12 # of Transactions Price / Room AEBITDA Multiple Multiple w/ CAPEX
7 $162K
14x 24x
2 $298K
28x 28x
3 $177K
13x 14x
5 $317K*
17x 19x
17 $228K
16x 19x
»$1.25B of Cash Proceeds (gross) generated since 2009 (Avg. Multiple over 16X) »Buyers have invested heavily in hotels (St. Regis Aspen, Westin Gaslamp, W Lakeshore, Le Méridien Perimeter)
EXTRAORDINARY CASH GENERATION POTENTIAL
* Excludes Poconos 180
$913
$771
Extraordinary Cash Generation
Net Debt Reduction of $2.4B since 2008 Returned $1.7B to Shareholders since 2008
Share Buybacks
Dividends
EXTRAORDINARY CASH GENERATION POTENTIAL
$3,248 $3,523
$2,826
$2,051
$1,511
$811
1/12008
1/12009
1/12010
1/12011
1/12012
1/12013
Note: Net debt consists of Long-term debt and short term debt, net of cash equivalents and restricted cash 181
LE MÉRIDIEN MINA SEYAHI BEACH RESORT & MARINA
THE WESTIN DUBAI MINA SEYAHI BEACH RESORT & MARINA
The Starwood Investment Proposition » Leading Global Hotel Company in High Growth Markets
» Best Global High End Lodging Brands
» High Quality Global Pipeline
» High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfolio
» Unmatched Global Platform
» Extraordinary Cash Generation Potential
182
STARWOOD 3 YEAR OUTLOOK
GROSVENOR HOUSE, DUBAI
183
Source: International Monetary Fund, UNWTO World Tourism Organization
Secular Demand Gains in Growth Markets
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
GLOBAL GDP 2012 2020
GLOBAL TRAVEL 2000 2012 2020
2000 Growth Markets
Mature Markets
Growth Markets
Mature Markets
Growth Markets
Mature Markets
Growth Markets
Mature Markets
Growth Markets
Mature Markets
Growth Markets
Mature Markets
184
Best Growth Markets Platform in Lodging STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
FEES PIPELINE ROOMS
Mature
Growth (32%)
Mature
Growth (35%)
Mature
Growth (80%)
Greater China India / Emerging Asia Emerging Europe / AME Latin America
As of 31-Dec-12 185
Secular Growth with Cycles in Mature Markets
Sources: US data; PWC (lodging 1967-1986); STR (lodging 1987-2012; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Price Inflation (CPI-U, Annual Average)
8 Years 8 Years 10 Years 10 Years
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70
'71
'72
'73
'74
'75
'76
'77
'78
'79 80 '81
'82
'83
'84
'85
'86
'87
'88
'89
'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11 12
Nominal RevPAR
Real RevPAR (2012 dollars)
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
186
2.7% 3.2%
2.0%
0.6% 0.5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 E
U.S. SUPPLY GROWTH (%) BY YEAR
Low Supply Growth Supports Recovery
Source: Smith Travel Research, PWC
Europe Supply Growth over next 3 Years = <1%
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
21% 25%
21%
13%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
U.S. SUPPLY GROWTH (%) BY DECADE
<1%
187
65% 67% 67% 67%
64%
58%
62%
64% 66%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$133
$141
$152
$162 $165
$147 $147
$154
$159
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$176 (11%) 2008 Peak ADR in “Real” terms
Rates wil l dr ive Next Leg of RevPAR Growth
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
Source: STR. U.S. Luxury, Upper-Upscale and Upper Tier Independents
Occupancy % ADR ($)
U.S. Luxury / Upper Upscale
188
Growth
Well Balanced Mature Markets Business
FEES INCENTIVE FEES OWNED/LEASED EARNINGS
BASE FEES
Franchise
Incentive
Base Mgmt
Growth
Mature (75%)
Growth
Mature (85%)
Note: Earnings represents Owned/Leased hotel operating revenue less operating expenses
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
U.S. 37%
Asia Europe Canada
2012
($M’s) % of Hotels Paying Fees
$50M 31%
$128M 81%
Mature
Growth
MATURE
Mature
189
5-7% Growth Achievable wi th Cont inuing Recovery Cycle
U.S. REVPAR
’75-’79 CAGR 15% n/a
’93-’97 CAGR
7% 8%
’03-’07 CAGR
7% 9%
’10-’15 CAGR ~6% Total U.S.
U.S. Luxury/UU
Source: PWC (lodging 1967-2015E)
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
'68
'69
'70 '71
'72
'73
'74'75
'76'77
'78
'79
'80'81
'82
'83
'84
'85
'86
'87
'88
'89
'90 '91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09'10 '11
'12'13 14 15
190
Indicative Management Contract Structures
U.S. Non-U.S.
Base Fee (% GOR) ~3-4% ~2-3%
Incentive Fee ~10-12% of “Incentive Income,” Often NOI after an Owner priority return that is typically 8-10% of
invested capital
~8-10% of (typically) GOP after Base Fee; No Owner priority return
Term ~20-40 years
Limited Owner rights to terminate (e.g. on sale of property) or convert
to franchise
~20-40 years Early Owner termination right is
rare
Expanding Margins Driving Incentive Fee Growth STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
» GOP Margins have expanded 270 bps since 2009 with incentive fee growth of 46%
» ~60% of same store managed properties worldwide pay incentive fees
» ~76% of same store managed properties in international markets pay incentive fees
191
$280
$540
2012 2017 Target
19%
26%
2012 2017 Target
EARNINGS ($M)
» RevPAR CAGR 6% » ADR CAGR 5% » Margin gains of ~130 bps / year
» Global Revenue Management » Lean Operations » Food and Beverage
Key Assumptions
CAGR: +14%
MARGIN
+7 pts
RevPAR
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
Note: Earnings represents Owned/Leased hotel operating revenue less operating expenses for Owned hotel set as of January 31st, 2013.. Excludes $27M in sold and other earnings.
“Path to Peak” at Owned / Leased Hotels STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
Key Initiatives
Current Owned / Leased Hotel Set
192
$340
$350
$360
$370
$380
$390
$400
$410
$420
2007 2012
Worldwide SG&A*
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2007 2012
Systemwide Rooms
-11%
* 2007 SG&A excludes expenses associated with Bliss spa subsidiary, sold in 2009.
Holding the Line on SG&A STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
» In the last 5 years, SG&A per room is down over 25%
» We are adding costs strategically to support the growth of our business in key markets
» Controlling the growth of corporate costs
+21%
193
Key Assumptions
Global Outlook
» Normal cyclical recovery in Mature Markets
» Continued rapid growth in Growth Markets
» Modest increase in interest rates
» Constant foreign exchange rates at current levels
Macro » No additional hotel sales
included (adjustments in the future if/when hotels sold)
» No share repurchases assumed
» Bal Harbour included in cash flow (excluded from EBITDA)
» Focus on share gain and cost control in the hotel business
» Manage Timeshare business for cash generation
» Sell-out Bal Harbour by the end of 2013
» Continue tight SG&A control
Operational Financial
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
194
What Could Disrupt a Normal Cyclical Recovery?
Starwood Outlook
MACRO-ECONOMIC RISKS » Political backlash to austerity in Southern Europe » Deceleration in China due to global slowdown in demand » Low / no growth in North America due to deficit/debt issues
GEO-POLITICAL RISKS » Syria / Egypt / Iran » Afghanistan / Pakistan » North Korea
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
195
Starwood 3-Year Outlook CAGRs 2012 - 2015
Starwood 3-Year Outlook
RevPAR Growth = 5 to 7% EBITDA Growth = 10 to 12% EPS Growth = 16 to 20%
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
196
Owned / Leased Hotels 3-Year Outlook CAGRs 2012 - 2015
Starwood 3-Year Outlook
RevPAR Growth = 4 to 7% Margin Improvement = +200 to +400 bps Earnings Growth = 10 to 14%
+/-1% RevPAR CAGR = +/-$20-25M Owned/Leased Earnings through 2015
Note: Earnings represents Owned/Leased operating revenue less operating expenses.
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
197
Managed and Franchised Hotels 3-Year Outlook CAGRs 2012 - 2015
Starwood 3-Year Outlook
+/-1% RevPAR CAGR = +/- $20-25M Management & Franchise Fees through 2015
RevPAR Growth = 5 to 7% Net Rooms Growth = 4 to 5% Incentive Fee Growth = 15 to 20% Managed & Franchise Fee Growth= 9 to 12%
Note: All growth rates same store except Net Rooms Growth and Total Fee Growth
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
198
Vacation Ownership / Residential 3-Year Outlook (CAGRs 2012 – 2015, unless otherwise noted)
Starwood 3-Year Outlook
Note: Earnings represents VOI operating revenue less VOI operating expenses.
Originated Sales Growth = Flat Operating Income Growth = Flat Timeshare Capital Spend = $150 to $200M (Cumulative’13-15)
Timeshare Cash Flow = $450 to $500M (Cumulative ’13-’15)
Bal Harbour Net Cash Flow = $100M (2013 Cash Flow per 2/7/2013 Outlook) (sell out in 2013)
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
199
3-Year Outlook: Sources of Growth
Starwood 3-Year Outlook
Note: EBITDA and EPS before special items
2012 2015
PRO-FORMA EPS
2012 OWNED M&F SVO / NET 2015
PRO-FORMA HOTELS FEES RESIDENTIAL SG&A EBITDA
Tax Rate: ~31%
$1,043
$1,370 -
$1,450 +10%
- +14%
+9% -
+12% flat
-3% -
-5%
EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015, $M)
EPS GROWTH (2012 – 2015, $M)
$2.08
$3.25 -
$3.60
CAGR: 16% - 20%
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
200
Significant Cash Generation Potential (all figures cumulative, $ in millions)
Starwood 3-Year Outlook
~$2B
- = +
Asset Sales
Cash available to:
» Fund growth
» Return to shareholders
3 Yea
r Cas
h Fl
ows f
rom
2012 Ending “Excess” Cash ~$300M
Owned Hotels $1,050M
To $1,150M
Fee Business $3,100M
to $3,200M
SVO / Bal Harbour
$550M to
$600M
=
3 Yea
r Cas
h Fl
ows
SG&A Expense ($1,200M)
To ($1,250M)
Owned Hotel and IT Capital
($1,150M) to
($1,200M)
Tax and Interest Expense
($700M) to
($750M)
Sources Uses 3 Year Cash Flow
Balance Sheet capacity in 2015 (at target 2.5x Gross Debt/AEBITDA) + $1.0B to $1.3B
“Capacity” for Growth Investments & Return to Shareholders = $3.0B to $3.3B
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
201
Achiev ing 80/20 Asset L ight goal by 2016 = ~$3B in Cash
North America » Improving industry operating fundamentals » Low Supply increases » Foreign and PE equity capital re-emerging » REITs with access to capital Europe » Significant interest for gateway markets » Interest from Middle East and Asia Latin America » Mexican GDP accelerating » Global investor interest in Brazil Asia » Australia: hub for cross-border capital » Emergence of REITs in certain markets
Transaction Outlook Disposition Alternatives
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
Individual Asset Sales Portfolio Sale » Small (< 3 assets) » Large ($750M+)
Joint Venture » Private Equity » REIT » Institutional Investor / SWF REIT Spin-Off » HOT sponsored spin-off (public or non-traded REIT) » Contribute all / a portion of assets in exchange for share
and cash (public)
202
Use of “Capacity” – $3.0B to $3.3B + Cash from Asset Sales
Starwood 3-Year Outlook
» Support Pipeline Growth – Joint Ventures – Financing – Opportunistic Hotel Acquisitions
» Strategic Brand Acquisitions – Expand current footprint – Acquire additional regional or global
scale
Fund Growth
» Pay Dividends – 2012 Dividend: +150%; 2% yield – Increase payout as EPS grows
» Buy Back Stock – Offset Share Dilution – EPS Accretion – Below intrinsic value
Return Cash to Shareholders
STARWOOD 3-YEAR OUTLOOK
203
IN SUMMARY
FOUR POINTS BY SHERATON SHEIKH ZAYED ROAD, DUBAI
204
The Starwood Transformation
Summary
Owning Hotels Owning Relationships
U.S.-Centric Global Enterprise
Price Point Segmentation Lifestyle Segmentation
» Higher growth trajectory
» Lower cyclicality
» Higher margin
» Higher capital efficiency
» Significant cash generation
» Superior shareholder value creation
IN SUMMARY
205
The Starwood Investment Proposition
Summary
»Leading Global Hotel Company in High Growth Markets
»Best Global High End Lodging Brands
»High Quality Global Pipeline
»High Value Global Owned Hotel Portfolio
»Unmatched Global Platform
»Extraordinary Cash Generation Potential
IN SUMMARY
206
Starwood Outlook
Summary
»Secular demand gains in Growth Markets
»Below-trend supply growth in Mature Markets
»Sharp rebound in owned hotel profits
»Significant cash generation from hotel operations, asset sales and timeshare
IN SUMMARY
207
Starwood 3-Year Outlook
Summary
»5-7% annual RevPAR growth achievable 2012-2015 with continued cyclical recovery
»10-12% annual EBITDA growth & 16-20% annual EPS Growth
»$3.0B to $3.3B of operating cash flow and balance sheet capacity
»80/20 Asset Light goal by 2016 could generate ~$3B in cash
»Significant capacity to fund growth investments and return cash to shareholders over next three years
IN SUMMARY
208
Same Store Owned, Leased and Consolidated Joint Venture Hotels Worldwide 2009 2012
RevenueSame store Owned, Leased and Consolidated Joint Venture Hotels 1,386$ 1,252$ Hotels sold, closed or without comparable results 198 446
Total Owned, Leased and Consolidated Joint Venture Hotels Revenue 1,584$ 1,698$
Costs and ExpensesSame store Owned, Leased and Consolidated Joint Venture Hotels 1,136$ 993$ Hotels sold, closed or without comparable results 179 398
Total Owned, Leased and Consolidated Joint Venture Hotels Costs and Expenses 1,315$ 1,391$
December 31,Twelve Months Ended
STARWOOD HOTELS AND RESORTS WORLDWIDE, INC.Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliations - Same Store Owned, Leased and Consolidated Joint Venture Hotel Revenue and Expenses
(In millions)
$ 562 $ (153) $ 409 182 - 182 128 (128) - 234 (55) 179 256 (11) 245 28 - 28 1,390 (347) 1,043 21 (21) - (179) 179 - (12) 12 - $ 1,220 $ (177) $ 1,043
(a)
(b)(c)
(d)(e)
STARWOOD HOTELS AND RESORTS WORLDWIDE, INC.Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliations - Pro Forma Data
(In millions)
Year EndedDecember 31, 2012
Income tax (benefit) expense(c)
As ReportedPro Forma
As Adjusted
Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA
Net income (loss)(a)
Interest expenseLoss on early extinguishment of debt, net(b)
Pro Forma Adjustments
Unusual and one-time items not expected to occur in a normalized year.
Depreciation(d)
AmortizationEBITDA(Gain) loss on asset dispositions and impairments, net(e)
Discontinued operations (gain) loss on dispositions(e)
Restructuring and other special charges (credits), net(e)
Adjusted EBITDA
The reduction in net income reflects the adjustments noted below to normalize the 2012 year. This includes eliminating $157 million of earnings from Bal Harbour, the reduction of $20 million for the asset sales that occurred in 2012 and the effect of the adjustments below.
Represents a decrease in costs as the early extinguishment is an unusual item in 2012.Includes a benefit of $52 million due to reduced EBITDA from the St. Regis Bal Harbour and a $3 million tax benefit from lower operating income from hotels sold during 2012.Includes an $11 million benefit from reduced depreciation associated with hotels sold during 2012.
Twelve Months Ended Unconsolidated Joint Ventures December 31, 2012
Equity Earnings from Unconsolidated Joint Ventures 25$ Depreciation and amortization from Unconsolidated Joint Ventures 32 Interest Expense from Unconsolidated Joint Ventures 10 EBITDA of Unconsolidated Joint Ventures 67$
STARWOOD HOTELS AND RESORTS WORLDWIDE, INC.Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliations
(In millions)
STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, INC.
Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliations – Future Performance (In millions, except per share data)
Low Case
Year Ended
December 31, 2015 Net income $ 640 Interest expense 120 Income tax expense 288 Depreciation and amortization 322 EBITDA 1,370 (Gain) loss on asset dispositions and impairments, net - Discontinued operations (gain) loss on dispositions - Adjusted EBITDA $ 1,370
Year Ended
December 31, 2015 Income from continuing operations before special items $ 640 EPS before special items $ 3.25 Special Items Gain (loss) on asset dispositions and impairments, net - Total special items – pre-tax - Income tax benefit associated with special items - Total special items – after-tax - Income from continuing operations $ 640 EPS including special items $ 3.25
High Case
Year Ended
December 31, 2015 Net income $ 709 Interest expense 110 Income tax expense 319 Depreciation and amortization 312 EBITDA 1,450 (Gain) loss on asset dispositions and impairments, net - Discontinued operations (gain) loss on dispositions - Adjusted EBITDA $ 1,450
Year Ended
December 31, 2015 Income from continuing operations before special items $ 709 EPS before special items $ 3.60 Special Items Gain (loss) on asset dispositions and impairments, net - Total special items – pre-tax - Income tax benefit associated with special items - Total special items – after-tax - Income from continuing operations $ 709 EPS including special items $ 3.60