Stanford foresight tools

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Foresight Tools Perspective, Opportunity, Solution

June 29, 2010 Prepared for Professor Stephen Kwan, San José State University

By Tamara Carleton and William Cockayne

Benefits of The Foresight Approach

o  Puts long-term strategies into action today, overcoming the gap between big idea and execution

o  Supports a collaborative, team-based approach that fosters internal alignment and buy-in from the beginning

o  Helps build internal competencies by teaching multiple tools that can be integrated into your business strategy and daily work immediately after the workshop

o  Enables more effective decision-making processes to meet your strategy challenges in the future

© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 2

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Foresight Tools Focused on Action

3 For Teaching Purposes Only © 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton

Three Phases to Build Foresight

4 For Workshop Participants Only © 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton

Perspective Opportunity Solution

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Future Planning Must Embrace Ambiguity

© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 5

High Ambiguity

Phase I: Perspective

The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward.

o  What is the bigger context for the topic you are interested in? o  What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements can be

identified as drivers of today's reality? o  When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what similarities in

timing and adoption exist today?



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Phase II: Opportunity

This phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrow’s innovations.

o  What themes are emerging that might shape or influence possible opportunities in the future?

o  Which major changes about people over time, such as population movements and generational shifts, can we identify and understand that affect future changes?

o  What might you expect from future users and customers?



Phase III: Solution

The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills.

o  How can you determine the multiple paths possible to get from today to tomorrow's future innovation?

o  Looking at what you've learned, how long does each step take along the various paths? o  What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in your control?



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Nine Tools to Integrate


Illustrative

Phase I: Perspective

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Context Maps Progression Curves Janus Cones


Context Mapping is a mapping technique for capturing emergent conversation themes in complex problems to show integrated context.

Progression Curves are a graphical representation that explains the progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related filters.

Janus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events.

The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward.

© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton 11 For Teaching Purposes Only

Context Map Context Mapping is a mapping technique for capturing emergent conversation themes in complex problems to show integrated context.


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Progression Curves Progression Curves are a graphical representation to explain the progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related filters.


Janus Cones Janus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how these timings affect potential future events.


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Phase II: Opportunity

Demographics Future Users Futuretelling


Demographics is a research method to identify and track population changes within a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.

Future Users explores the potential future of a chosen demographic through the comparative analysis between similar groups over time.

Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best.

The second phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrow’s innovations.


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Demographics Demographics is a research method to identify and track population growth within a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.


Future Users Future Users is an analytical method that explores the potential future of a chosen demographic through the comparison of changes between and over time to similar groups.


Past Today Tomorrow

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Futuretelling Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular population need or possible scene from the future.


Phase III: Solution

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White Spots Change Paths Paper Mockups


White Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in the ‘white spots’, or empty areas.

Change Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.

Paper mockups in three-dimensions (3D) are an advanced design method to prototype and communicate a new concept using paper and inexpensive materials. A specific iteration is the Dark Horse Prototype.

The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills.


White Spots White Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in the ‘white spots’, or empty areas.


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Change Paths Change Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.


Paper Mockups


Paper mockups in three-dimensional (3D) are a design method to prototype and communicate a new concept using paper and inexpensive materials.

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The Dark Horse


A Dark Horse is a design method to prototype and communicate a concept that is considered high risk and/or least likely to succeed.

Center for Foresight and Innovation Stanford University

http://foresight.stanford.edu

Stanford foresight tools

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