STANDARD BANK GROUP SA GDP decline expected to be a multiple of GFC GDP-57% QoQ-6% QoQ 0 5 10 15 20...

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 1 STANDARD BANK GROUP OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD STANDARD BANK - AFRICA INVESTORS CONFERENCE 23 June 2020

Transcript of STANDARD BANK GROUP SA GDP decline expected to be a multiple of GFC GDP-57% QoQ-6% QoQ 0 5 10 15 20...

Page 1: STANDARD BANK GROUP SA GDP decline expected to be a multiple of GFC GDP-57% QoQ-6% QoQ 0 5 10 15 20 25 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 % SARB responded quickly with sizeable

OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 1

STANDARD BANK GROUP OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD

STANDARD BANK - AFRICA INVESTORS CONFERENCE

23 June 2020

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 2

THE GROUP AT A GLANCE

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 3

AN AFRICAN-FOCUSSED FINANCIAL SERVICES PROVIDER

STANDARD BANK GROUP

31%of banking headline

earnings from Africa

Regions1

1 Operations in Africa outside of South Africa

WITH COMPELLING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES

• Unrivalled African-focused

capabilities

• Established franchise with a large

growing client base

• Diversified revenue streams

• Robust capital and liquidity position

• Strong growth prospects

• Resources and appetite to expand

• Attractive medium-term financial

targets

• Purpose-driven organisation

AND A SIGNIFICANT, PROVEN REACH

2 Beijing, Dubai, Isle of Man, Jersey, London, New York, Sao Paulo

3 PBB client transactions

13.4mactive

customers

8 970

ATMs

1 114

Branches

50 691

Group permanent

employees

20Sub-Saharan

African countries

7Key international

markets2

>95%

Digital transactions3

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 4

OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 5

SPEED, DEPTH AND BREADTH OF THE IMPACT IS UNPRECEDENTED

A COVID-19 WORLD

• COVID-19 is having a profound human and economic

impact globally, including in all the countries in which

we operate

• Previously unimaginable, wide-spread lockdowns

disrupted global supply chains, businesses and in turn,

markets

• The economic fallout is expected to be deeper and

broader than the GFC

• The policymaker response is unprecedented in terms

of speed and quantum, and includes a broad range of

fiscal and monetary policy actions

• The situation remains fluid with an uncertain outlook

• The final economic impact is unknown, as is the

timing and shape of the recovery

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Brent Crude

Disruption of transport and travel drove a

decline in oil demand*

-68% in

3 months

-75% over

6 months

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

%

SA GDP decline expected to be a multiple of GFC

GDP

-57%

QoQ

-6%

QoQ

0

5

10

15

20

25

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

%

SARB responded quickly with sizeable interest rate cuts

SA repo rate

-250bps in

3 months

-650bps over

several years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Th

ousands

ALSI

Asset prices fell much faster than in

the Global Financial Crisis*

-35% in

1 month

-42% over

7 months

*Data from 5 Jan 2000 to 15 April 2020

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 6

STANDARD BANK OPERATIONS - LOCKDOWN STATUS

Zimbabwe

Kenya

Nigeria

Uganda

Namibia

South Africa

Tanzania

Democratic

Republic of the

Congo

Angola

MauritiusBotswana

Zambia

Eswatini

Lesotho

Malawi

GhanaIvory

CoastSouth

Sudan

Full lockdown with essential

services (1)

Partial lockdown (14)

No Lockdown (4)

Lockdown status at 31 May 2020

LOCKDOWN RESTRICTIONS ARE BEING EASED IN MOST COUNTRIES

Zimbabwe

Kenya

Nigeria

Uganda

Namibia

South Africa

Tanzania

Democratic

Republic of the

Congo

Angola

MauritiusBotswana

Zambia

Eswatini

Lesotho

Malawi

Ghana

Ivory

CoastSouth

Sudan

Full lockdown with essential

services (7)

Partial lockdown (8)

No Lockdown (4)

Lockdown status at 30 April 2020

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 7

PURPOSEFUL IN OUR RESPONSE

PURPOSEFUL IN OUR RESPONSE

RESPOND

To immediate Covid-19 threatRapid response strategies with positive societal

impact

RECOVER

Facilitate return to growthComing out of the crisis

RE-IMAGINE

To adapt to the ‘new normal’Remain human-centric & digital

• Business resilience

• Employee safety & wellbeing

• Client relief plans

• Risk, capital & liquidity management

• Regulator & industry body engagement

• Shareholder engagement

• Community support

• Manage/mitigate economic fallout

• Allocate capital to support clients and

communities

• Assess behaviours/demand – new

opportunities

• Accelerate digital

• Deliver future-ready SBG

3 PHASE APPROACH

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 8

RESTRUCTURES TOTALING R133 BILLION AS AT END MAY 2020

SUPPORTING OUR CLIENTS, EMPLOYEES & COMMUNITIES

EMPLOYEES

• Safe environment and PPE for essential workers

• >75% staff working from home – leveraging

digital tools & online skills development

• Adjusted benefits e.g. Covid-19 leave & reward

COMMUNITY

• Donated >R40m aligned with our social impact

areas:❖ To charitable organisations

❖ To fund medical equipment and PPE

• Employee matching scheme raised >R2m

CORPORATE CLIENTS

• ~R30bn restructures* for

eligible clients - mostly in South

Africa

PBB SA CLIENTS

• Fee cuts/waivers, insurance

premium cash back and reward

programme benefits

• >R92bn restructured lending

balances

PBB AR CLIENTS

• Fee cuts/waivers, payment

waivers/moratoriums

• >R11bn restructured lending

balances

SME INITIATIVES IN SA

• SME Covid-19 Guarantee Fund

– accepting applications

• >R245m distributed on behalf

of Oppenheimer Future Trust

*Based on exposure at risk

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 9

CLIENT FOCUS – PBBSUPPORTING OUR CLIENTS

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 10

SUPPORTING BUSINESS & COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS

PBB CLIENT RELIEF MEASURES

We’re open for

business and we

are here for you

Business loan

instalment relief

for SMEsIf you have a small to medium-

sized business and have been

affected by COVID-19, we’ll

assist you with payment relief.

Tell me more >

COVID-19 Term

Loan Scheme for

SMEsWe have been in consultation

with Government to provide

financial relief to businesses

that have been negatively

Tell me more >

Business

insurance

excess waiverWe’re committed to

supporting you and your

business during this difficult

time. As a small business

Tell me more >

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 11

Manage your

business 24/7

with SimplyBlu

Our e-commerce solution,

SimplyBlu, enables you to manage

your business online from a single,

secure platform.

Tell me more >

HELPING OUR CUSTOMERS OPERATE IN A NEW WORLD

PBB CLIENT INITIATIVES

Solutions to help

your business

trade

Discover how our trade solutions

can help your business trading

during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tell me more >

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 12

SUPPORTING RETAIL CUSTOMERS

PBB CLIENT RELIEF MEASURES

ATM cash

withdrawal

Saswitch fee…

You can now withdraw cash

from other bank’s ATMs without

being charged the Saswitch fee.

Tell me more >

Instalment relief

for those earning

under R7 500pm

To assist our most vulnerable

customers who are being

adversely affected by the COVID-

19 crisis

Tell me more >

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 13

RISK ASSESSED AT A CLIENT SEGMENT AND PRODUCT LEVEL

PBB – RISK ASSESSMENT & CLIENT RELIEF PROVIDED

Total Restructures

PBB South Africa portfolio*, R595bn

SME &Commercial

Individual

Restructures*

R11bn

Restructures*

R92bn

+285 000# customers granted

restructures

* Gross loans and advances to customers as at 30 April. Restructures as at 28 May 2020

RISKS

Individuals

• Job losses or pay cuts expected

• Impact on lower income more material as

no cushion/savings

SMEs

Commercial

• Ability to resume trade in full or in part

under lockdown

• Collateral/security valuations and ability to

meet margin calls

• Balance sheet strength & ability to raise

capital if required

• Significant reduction in turnover during

lockdown

• Ability to fund running costs - <40% can

survive > 1 month

• Ability to resume trade in full, or in part,

under lockdown

• Need to fund safety equipment & stock

when re-open

• Major employer, so will impact individuals

~15% of

portfolio

<13% of

portfolio

Highest number of

restructures, by

value, in Kenya,

Nigeria & Uganda, in

line with relative size

of portfolio

Total Restructures

PBB Africa RegionsPortfolio*, R92bn

SME &Commercial

Individual

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 14

Mar Apr May

Volumes*

19%

8%

-3%

-18%

-27%

-47%

-57%

-59%

-61%

-67%

-67%

-68%

-70%

-79%

-84%

-85%

-86%

-88%

-89%

-91%

-93%

-93%

-94%

-94%

-95%

-97%

-98%

Mail Order

Professional Services

Food Stores-Warehouse

Drug Stores

Utilities

Quasi Cash

Other Services

Education

Other Retail

Discount Stores

Gas Stations

Electric-Appliance

Health Care

Repair Shops

Department Stores

Vehicles

Hardware

Recreation

Auto Rental

Sporting-Toy Stores

Interior Furnishings

Other Transport

Hotel-Motel

Travel Agencies

Clothing Stores

Restaurants-Bars

Airline

% change in spend(April 2020 vs April 2019)

Mar Apr May

Volumes**

Mar Apr May

Values*

Debit card turnover YTD, Rbn

Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May

2020

2019

LOCKDOWNS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACTIVITY LEVELS AND REVENUES IN APRIL 2020

PBB SA ACTIVITY LEVELS

Customer spend Card issuing turnover***

-61%

Branch activity

Mar Apr May

Values**

ATM activity

-38%-44%

-37%

Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May

2020

2019

Credit card turnover YTD, Rbn

***For 5 months to end of May 2019 and 2020

-43%

* % change relative to March 2020

** % change relative to March 2020

-22%

-11%-14%

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 15

SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN DISBURSEMENTS IN APRIL, SOME RECOVERY IN MAY

PBB SA ACTIVITY LEVELS

Personal lending disbursements, Rbn

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Face-to-face Digital

Lockdown

Mortgage disbursements, Rbn

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Lockdown

VAF* disbursements, Rbn

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Lockdown

* Average for 3 months

April vs March April vs MarchMay vs March May vs March

Before

lockdown*

During

lockdown

% of digital disbursements

100% 73% 72% 61%51%29%

* Vehicle asset finance

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 16

CLIENT FOCUS – CIBSUPPORTING OUR CLIENTS

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 17

PRINCIPLES-BASED PRIORITISATION AND SECTOR AND GEOGRAPHIC REVIEWS UNDERPIN CLIENT-SPECIFIC ACTIONS

CIB – RISK ASSESSMENT

• Country-specific considerations need to

be taken into account, for example:

❖ Oil-producing countries, e.g.

Angola, Ghana & Nigeria

❖ Commodity-exporters e.g.

Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia

❖ Markets which have experienced

disruptions to demand & supply

chains, e.g. Kenya

❖ Markets with fiscal constraints, e.g.

Namibia, Nigeria and SA

• Client reviews – case-by-case taking into

account leverage & outlook

• Lending - instalment holidays/restructures

• Working capital – limits & term

extensions

• Restructurings – subject to market

access

COUNTRY REVIEWS CLIENT-SPECIFIC ACTIONS

• Negatively impacted sectors split

between those where the impact is likely

to be felt more immediately, e.g.

Hospitality, and those where it is likely to

be more delayed, e.g. Manufacturing

• Less impacted sectors, e.g. Ecommerce

• A blanket risk categorisation cannot be

applied at a sector level

• Sectors need to be assessed at a sub-

sector and major client level e.g. TMT*

sub sectors impacted differently

SECTOR REVIEWS

• Prioritise existing clients over new clients

• Prioritise local currency lending over hard currency

• Review client leverage

PRINCIPLES

• Retain strong covenant discipline

• Respond quickly to client requests

• Manage client demand/pipelines within risk appetite

* Telecom, Media and Technology

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 18

APPETITE FOR HIGHER RISK SECTORS SUBJECT TO CLIENT-SPECIFIC MITIGATING FACTORS

CIB – CASE-BY-CASE CLIENT ASSESSMENT

• Impacted by inability to trade during lockdown and

associated rental concessions/discounts

• Reduced rental collections threat to covenants

• Long-term concern around income sustainability and

implied increase in sector vacancies

• Valuations impact unquantifiable with downward pressure

expected

• Forward-looking cashflows difficult to forecast on lagging

sub-sectors office

Commercial

Real Estate

Oil & Gas

Hospitality

• Significant oil price decline – recovery timeline and “new

norm” level uncertain

• Impact on oil-producers and countries reliant on export

revenues

• New projects on hold – Mozambique and Uganda

• Occupancy significantly down/closed

• Reopening uncertain

CONCERNS

• Diversified portfolio with >50% of portfolio large REITs

• Portfolio LTV 50% providing capacity to absorb declines

in valuations

• Low interest rate environment provides cashflow relief

• Long-term assets and therefore short term relief has

marginal impact on overall loan profiles

• Internal valuations provide comfort with medium term

impact in mind

• Improved portfolio profile as pivoted towards larger Tier

1 players (including multinationals)

• Diverse portfolio incl. up/mid/downstream

• Understand cost efficiency initiatives, cashflows and

break even levels and liquidity positions

• Focus on attractive business/leisure offerings

• Expect uptick from stay-cationers – pent up domestic

demand

STANDARD BANK FOCUS/MITIGANTSSECTORS

Non-

essential

retail

• Turnover impacted by lockdown

• Consumer demand once lockdown lifted – discretionary

vs non-discretionary

• Consider viability in medium-to-long term – subject to

cashflow outlook in recovery stage

Con

su

mer

~16%

~7%

<1%

<2%

% portfolio*

* Reflects % of CIB portfolio as at 30 April 2020, the Commercial Real Estate portfolio equates to c. R72bn and Oil & Gas portfolio equates to c. R28bn

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 19

EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENTSafety & well being a priority

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 20

PROVIDING RELEVANT INFORMATION WHICH IS EASILY ACCESSIBLE AND ONGOING SUPPORT IN TRYING TIMES

KEEPING OUR EMPLOYEES SAFE AND WELL

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 21

DIGITALLY-ENABLED TRAINING PLATFORMS FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING KEY FUTURE-READY SKILLS

HELPING OUR EMPLOYEES CONTINUE THEIR GROWTH JOURNEY

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 22

RISK & CONDUCTOperational resilience, governance and risk

management

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 23

155160

166

97

240

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E

Group CLR, bps

SBG PBB

CIB Analyst Min

Analyst Max

IFRS 9IAS 39

GFC COVID-19*

(analyst

forecasts)

Source: Standard Bank Group Annual Financial Statements and forecasts from broker notes

*Extracted from analyst expectations as at 31 May 2020

FY20 COST OF RISK EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE TOP OF THE GROUP’S THROUGH THE CYCLE RANGE AND GFC PEAK

RISK MANAGEMENT - CREDIT TRENDS AND OUTLOOK

• Impact of Covid-19 expected to be

much broader and macro outlook

significantly worse than GFC

• IFRS 9 has added additional

complexity

❖Forward-looking nature of

provisioning requirements

❖Risk of pro-cyclicality

❖Numerous assumptions required

• Comparability expected to be

difficult - uncertainty likely to drive

divergent assumptions

Historic Credit Loss Ratio & Analysts expectations for FY20

Through-the-cycle

range 70-100bps

bps

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 24

SARB DIRECTIVE AND GUIDANCE NOTES

LCR

CAR

IFRS 9

Overview

• Temporary reduction in regulatory minimum ratio from 100% to 80% - effective 1 April 2020

• Phase back to 100% post market normalisation to be determined by PA

Key Implications

• Results in lower minimum requirements providing temporary liquidity relief to banks during

this time, in line with the intention of the Basel II LCR framework

Overview

• Guidance notes on impairment treatment for IFRS 9 COVID -19 driven restructures

Key Implications

• No requirement to move COVID-19 restructures to Stage 2 or 3 (in the absence of other

credit risk concerns)

• Ring fencing of portfolio to distinguish between longer term credit and temporary COVID-

19 challenges

Overview

• Temporary relaxation of the Pillar 2A (P2A) capital requirements held for systemic risk

• Banks permitted to use conservation buffers subject to distribution prohibitions

Key Implications

• Current 0.5% CET1, 0.75% Tier 1 and 1% Total capital buffers all reduced to 0%

• Results in lower minimum requirements, lower requirements for AT1/T2 redemptions on call dates

and larger buffers to conservation levels

• Reduced buffers are not intended to support distributions

SARB

Directives/

Guidance

Note

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 25

FUNDING AND LIQUIDITYMONEY MARKET ACTIVITY REFLECTS MARKET PRESSURES

• SARB’s financial market support resulted in a peak market

liquidity surplus in excess of R50bn held at SAMOS. This

surplus has subsequently reduced to normal levels

• Banks’ utilisation of additional liquidity has closely followed

market pressures experienced across bond and money

markets

• Market pressure experienced in the second half of March

resulted in a significant amount of paper being sold back to

banks to generate liquidity within funds and for margin

requirements

• Liquidity conditions in the interbank market remained

unaffected during the market pressures

• Money market issuance conditions significantly improved in

the latter half of April and going into May

• By the end of May 2020, NCD pricing had returned to pre-

Covid-19 levels

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

01/2020 02/2020 03/2020 04/2020 05/2020

SBSA outstanding NCDs (Rbn)

SBSA outstanding NCDs

Source: STRATE

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

20-Feb 05-Mar 19-Mar 02-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 14-May 28-May

5 year NCD

Source: Bloomberg

5 year NCD spread pricing over Jibar

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 26

FUNDING AND LIQUIDITYLIQUIDITY REGULATORY POSITION

• SBG LCR in excess of minimum LCR

requirements

• SARB temporarily reduced the minimum LCR

requirements from 100% to 80% (effective 1

April 2020) – action was:

❖ In response to the COVID-19 impact on the

South African market

❖ In line with the intention of the Basel III

LCR framework

❖ To promote the continued provision of

credit by banks

• SBG NSFR in excess of minimum NSFR

requirements

123%119% 119% 119% 117%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

SBG Net Stable Funding Ratio (%)

NSFR Minimum

121.3%116.8%

123.7%

138.4% 141.9%

90% 90%

100% 100% 100%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

150%

Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

SBG Liquidity Coverage Ratio (%)

LCR*

Minimum

*LCR requirement reduced to 80% from April 2020

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 27

• SBG entered the crisis with robust capital ratios

• Key 1Q20 CET1 ratio adjustments driven by:

❖ 1Q20 earnings and FCTR (ZAR depreciation)

❖ Accrual of the FY19 final ordinary dividend

❖ Increase in RWA from:

▪ Client demand for extensions and drawdowns of facilities

stemming from COVID-19 market conditions

▪ Foreign exchange movements including ZAR depreciation

• Capital forecasting/scenario planning:

❖ No FY20 interim ordinary dividend

❖ Sufficient capital to pay preference dividends and AT1 and

Tier II coupons

❖ Array of mitigating actions available to manage CET1

• Capital expected to remain above regulatory minimums under

the scenarios as currently contemplated

ROBUST CAPITAL RATIOS – REMAIN ABOVE REGULATORY MINIMA IN ALL MARKETS

CAPITAL

1 274

12.9%

SARB regulatory minimum, 7.5%*

* SARB regulatory minimum changed to 7.0% from 6 April 2020

**Common equity tier 1 ratio adjusted for the SARB IFRS 9 transitional impact

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 28

FINANCIAL OUTCOMEAdapting in an uncertain environment

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 29

Local currency vs USD, % change YTD** Inflation rate change 1Q20 vs 4Q19, %

Local real GDP, % change YOYPolicy interest rate change YTD, %

0.21.9

6.03.6

-8.5

-4.2

2.0

-0.7

SA S&C East West

2019 2020F**

24%

17%

3%

10%

SA S&C East West

0.1

0.9

-0.4

1.7

SA S&C East West

MACRO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS AGGREGATED ACCORDING TO KEY AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC SEGMENTS*

KEY MACRO INDICATORS LIKELY TO IMPACT STANDARD BANK’S PERFORMANCE

• Large currency movements relative to the

USD year to date

• Inflation relatively subdued despite

currency weakness

• Interest rate cuts in all but 3 markets

• Expect real GDP to decline in 12 of our

20 Africa countries

❖SA, Botswana and Namibia expected to be

worst impacted

❖All East Africa countries expected to remain

positive

* South & Central (S&C) includes Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi,

Mozambique, Namibia, Eswatini, Zambia, Zimbabwe; East includes

Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda; West includes

Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, DRC, Ghana, Nigeria. Statistics excl. Zimbabwe,

South Sudan & Ethiopia. Detail as at 1 June 2020

** 2020F is median outlook except SA which reflects SBG Research

view

** Positive reflects weakness vs USD SA CPI expected to decline in

2Q20 and FY20 YOY

-2.75

-1.53

-0.83-1.25

SA S&C East West

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 30

COMMENTARY ON FACTORS INFLUENCING FY20 OUTLOOK

FINANCIAL OUTCOME

• ZAR is likely to be weaker on average relative to the USD and the Africa

Regions’ currencies year on year - this will support the earnings contribution

from Africa Regions

ZAR weakness

Loans/Deposits

*If the pandemic-related impacts are deeper or more sustained than currently expected under SBG scenarios, or government actions are not effective, the group’s

results could vary meaningfully

Capital

Liquidity & Funding

• Loan and deposit growth expected to slow

• Low business and consumer confidence levels are expected to continue to be a

constraint on the secured portfolio growth

• Unsecured lending growth will be subject to individual affordability and

business and sector viability over the medium term

• CET1 higher than going into GFC and large buffer to CET1 regulatory minimum

• Regulatory relief – restructured loan treatment and removal of Pillar 2a

• In line with Prudential Authority guidance, no FY20 interim ordinary dividend

• CET1 ratio expected to remain strong and above required minimums with

capacity to pay preference share dividends and AT1 coupons

• LCR and NSFR expected to remain above regulatory minimums

• Translation benefit of non-SA earnings due to

relatively weaker ZAR

• Robust loan growth driven by corporate, SME

& personal unsecured demand

• Strong deposit growth

• Strong capital adequacy allows client support

and balance sheet growth

• Credit deterioration and ZAR weakness drove

higher RWA

• Capital markets opening up and pricing

improving

• LCR & NSFR above regulatory minimums

FY20 COMMENTARY*4M20 TRENDSDRIVERS

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 31

COMMENTARY ON FACTORS INFLUENCING FY20 OUTLOOK

FINANCIAL OUTCOME

• Progressive interest rate cuts resulting in margin

compression

• Higher cost of funding driven by market dislocation and

progressive rating downgrades

• Mortgages and VAF disbursements disrupted by lockdowns

• Higher volatility drove client activity and flows, and in

turn, higher trading revenue

• Lockdowns negatively impacted demand and transaction

volumes

• Fee waivers/cuts, insurance premium cuts and loss of

income claims and higher reward costs were a drag

• Higher costs due to employee and client safety

protocols/equipment, work-from-home and IT resilience

spend & CSI initiatives

• Partially offset by lower discretionary spend and lower travel

and entertainment

• Broad-based macro deterioration

• Lockdowns negatively impacted businesses and individuals

FY20 COMMENTARY*4M20 TRENDSDRIVERS

Net interest income

Non-interest

revenue

Operating expenses

Credit impairment

charges

• NII supported by balance sheet growth

• Meaningful decrease in NIM due to higher funding costs and

negative endowment

• Trading revenue 4M20 run rate to slow

• Impacted by the slowdown in activity associated with the

continued lockdowns

• Dependent on the pace and magnitude of the recovery in 2H20

• Containing operating expense growth remains a focus

• Not at the expense of the resilience of our systems or our

ongoing digital customer journeys

• The greatest potential for variability and dependent on the depth

of the recession and pace of the recovery

• Credit loss ratio will be above the group’s through-the-cycle

range of 70 -100bps and may exceed the GFC peak (160 bps)

• Will ensure appropriate provisioning for portfolios granted

payment holidays (based on alternative credit parameters)

*If the pandemic-related impacts are deeper or more sustained than currently expected under SBG scenarios, or government actions are not effective, the group’s results could

vary meaningfully

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 32

SEE IMPACTDriving positive SEE impact

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 33

SUPPORTING OUR COMMUNITIES

HEALTH

• Funding and sourcing medical

supplies & food parcels

• Working with different partners

across the continent, including

trusted NGOs, government

departments, and international

agencies like UNICEF

JOBS & ENTERPRISES

• Supporting job protection

schemes e.g. Covid-19 Loan

Guarantee Scheme and SA

Future Trust

• Connecting suppliers & clients to

Covid-19 business opportunities

EDUCATION

• Working with our early

childhood development

partners

• Assisting with the set-up of

online learning

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 34

WAY FORWARDWhat we are doing to address uncertainty

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 35

PURPOSEFUL IN OUR RESPONSE & DILIGENT IN OUR EXECUTION

WAY FORWARD

• The environment remains fluid and uncertain, and lowers the

confidence with which financial outcomes are forecast

• Latest macros reflect that the crisis will be more protracted than

originally predicted

• The capital and liquidity position is expected to remain within risk

appetite

• Our priorities remain focused on:

❖Supporting our clients;

❖Caring for our staff and maintaining business continuity;

❖Preserving balance sheet strength and prioritising resource

allocations; and

❖Positioning Standard Bank Group to emerge stronger

Positioning

SBG to emerge

stronger

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OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 36

THANK YOU