STANDARD BANK GROUP SA GDP decline expected to be a multiple of GFC GDP-57% QoQ-6% QoQ 0 5 10 15 20...
Transcript of STANDARD BANK GROUP SA GDP decline expected to be a multiple of GFC GDP-57% QoQ-6% QoQ 0 5 10 15 20...
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 1
STANDARD BANK GROUP OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD
STANDARD BANK - AFRICA INVESTORS CONFERENCE
23 June 2020
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 2
THE GROUP AT A GLANCE
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 3
AN AFRICAN-FOCUSSED FINANCIAL SERVICES PROVIDER
STANDARD BANK GROUP
31%of banking headline
earnings from Africa
Regions1
1 Operations in Africa outside of South Africa
WITH COMPELLING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
• Unrivalled African-focused
capabilities
• Established franchise with a large
growing client base
• Diversified revenue streams
• Robust capital and liquidity position
• Strong growth prospects
• Resources and appetite to expand
• Attractive medium-term financial
targets
• Purpose-driven organisation
AND A SIGNIFICANT, PROVEN REACH
2 Beijing, Dubai, Isle of Man, Jersey, London, New York, Sao Paulo
3 PBB client transactions
13.4mactive
customers
8 970
ATMs
1 114
Branches
50 691
Group permanent
employees
20Sub-Saharan
African countries
7Key international
markets2
>95%
Digital transactions3
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 4
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 5
SPEED, DEPTH AND BREADTH OF THE IMPACT IS UNPRECEDENTED
A COVID-19 WORLD
• COVID-19 is having a profound human and economic
impact globally, including in all the countries in which
we operate
• Previously unimaginable, wide-spread lockdowns
disrupted global supply chains, businesses and in turn,
markets
• The economic fallout is expected to be deeper and
broader than the GFC
• The policymaker response is unprecedented in terms
of speed and quantum, and includes a broad range of
fiscal and monetary policy actions
• The situation remains fluid with an uncertain outlook
• The final economic impact is unknown, as is the
timing and shape of the recovery
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Brent Crude
Disruption of transport and travel drove a
decline in oil demand*
-68% in
3 months
-75% over
6 months
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
%
SA GDP decline expected to be a multiple of GFC
GDP
-57%
QoQ
-6%
QoQ
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
%
SARB responded quickly with sizeable interest rate cuts
SA repo rate
-250bps in
3 months
-650bps over
several years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Th
ousands
ALSI
Asset prices fell much faster than in
the Global Financial Crisis*
-35% in
1 month
-42% over
7 months
*Data from 5 Jan 2000 to 15 April 2020
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 6
STANDARD BANK OPERATIONS - LOCKDOWN STATUS
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Nigeria
Uganda
Namibia
South Africa
Tanzania
Democratic
Republic of the
Congo
Angola
MauritiusBotswana
Zambia
Eswatini
Lesotho
Malawi
GhanaIvory
CoastSouth
Sudan
Full lockdown with essential
services (1)
Partial lockdown (14)
No Lockdown (4)
Lockdown status at 31 May 2020
LOCKDOWN RESTRICTIONS ARE BEING EASED IN MOST COUNTRIES
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Nigeria
Uganda
Namibia
South Africa
Tanzania
Democratic
Republic of the
Congo
Angola
MauritiusBotswana
Zambia
Eswatini
Lesotho
Malawi
Ghana
Ivory
CoastSouth
Sudan
Full lockdown with essential
services (7)
Partial lockdown (8)
No Lockdown (4)
Lockdown status at 30 April 2020
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 7
PURPOSEFUL IN OUR RESPONSE
PURPOSEFUL IN OUR RESPONSE
RESPOND
To immediate Covid-19 threatRapid response strategies with positive societal
impact
RECOVER
Facilitate return to growthComing out of the crisis
RE-IMAGINE
To adapt to the ‘new normal’Remain human-centric & digital
• Business resilience
• Employee safety & wellbeing
• Client relief plans
• Risk, capital & liquidity management
• Regulator & industry body engagement
• Shareholder engagement
• Community support
• Manage/mitigate economic fallout
• Allocate capital to support clients and
communities
• Assess behaviours/demand – new
opportunities
• Accelerate digital
• Deliver future-ready SBG
3 PHASE APPROACH
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 8
RESTRUCTURES TOTALING R133 BILLION AS AT END MAY 2020
SUPPORTING OUR CLIENTS, EMPLOYEES & COMMUNITIES
EMPLOYEES
• Safe environment and PPE for essential workers
• >75% staff working from home – leveraging
digital tools & online skills development
• Adjusted benefits e.g. Covid-19 leave & reward
COMMUNITY
• Donated >R40m aligned with our social impact
areas:❖ To charitable organisations
❖ To fund medical equipment and PPE
• Employee matching scheme raised >R2m
CORPORATE CLIENTS
• ~R30bn restructures* for
eligible clients - mostly in South
Africa
PBB SA CLIENTS
• Fee cuts/waivers, insurance
premium cash back and reward
programme benefits
• >R92bn restructured lending
balances
PBB AR CLIENTS
• Fee cuts/waivers, payment
waivers/moratoriums
• >R11bn restructured lending
balances
SME INITIATIVES IN SA
• SME Covid-19 Guarantee Fund
– accepting applications
• >R245m distributed on behalf
of Oppenheimer Future Trust
*Based on exposure at risk
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 9
CLIENT FOCUS – PBBSUPPORTING OUR CLIENTS
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 10
SUPPORTING BUSINESS & COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS
PBB CLIENT RELIEF MEASURES
We’re open for
business and we
are here for you
Business loan
instalment relief
for SMEsIf you have a small to medium-
sized business and have been
affected by COVID-19, we’ll
assist you with payment relief.
Tell me more >
COVID-19 Term
Loan Scheme for
SMEsWe have been in consultation
with Government to provide
financial relief to businesses
that have been negatively
Tell me more >
Business
insurance
excess waiverWe’re committed to
supporting you and your
business during this difficult
time. As a small business
Tell me more >
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 11
Manage your
business 24/7
with SimplyBlu
Our e-commerce solution,
SimplyBlu, enables you to manage
your business online from a single,
secure platform.
Tell me more >
HELPING OUR CUSTOMERS OPERATE IN A NEW WORLD
PBB CLIENT INITIATIVES
Solutions to help
your business
trade
Discover how our trade solutions
can help your business trading
during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Tell me more >
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 12
SUPPORTING RETAIL CUSTOMERS
PBB CLIENT RELIEF MEASURES
ATM cash
withdrawal
Saswitch fee…
You can now withdraw cash
from other bank’s ATMs without
being charged the Saswitch fee.
Tell me more >
Instalment relief
for those earning
under R7 500pm
To assist our most vulnerable
customers who are being
adversely affected by the COVID-
19 crisis
Tell me more >
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 13
RISK ASSESSED AT A CLIENT SEGMENT AND PRODUCT LEVEL
PBB – RISK ASSESSMENT & CLIENT RELIEF PROVIDED
Total Restructures
PBB South Africa portfolio*, R595bn
SME &Commercial
Individual
Restructures*
R11bn
Restructures*
R92bn
+285 000# customers granted
restructures
* Gross loans and advances to customers as at 30 April. Restructures as at 28 May 2020
RISKS
Individuals
• Job losses or pay cuts expected
• Impact on lower income more material as
no cushion/savings
SMEs
Commercial
• Ability to resume trade in full or in part
under lockdown
• Collateral/security valuations and ability to
meet margin calls
• Balance sheet strength & ability to raise
capital if required
• Significant reduction in turnover during
lockdown
• Ability to fund running costs - <40% can
survive > 1 month
• Ability to resume trade in full, or in part,
under lockdown
• Need to fund safety equipment & stock
when re-open
• Major employer, so will impact individuals
~15% of
portfolio
<13% of
portfolio
Highest number of
restructures, by
value, in Kenya,
Nigeria & Uganda, in
line with relative size
of portfolio
Total Restructures
PBB Africa RegionsPortfolio*, R92bn
SME &Commercial
Individual
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 14
Mar Apr May
Volumes*
19%
8%
-3%
-18%
-27%
-47%
-57%
-59%
-61%
-67%
-67%
-68%
-70%
-79%
-84%
-85%
-86%
-88%
-89%
-91%
-93%
-93%
-94%
-94%
-95%
-97%
-98%
Mail Order
Professional Services
Food Stores-Warehouse
Drug Stores
Utilities
Quasi Cash
Other Services
Education
Other Retail
Discount Stores
Gas Stations
Electric-Appliance
Health Care
Repair Shops
Department Stores
Vehicles
Hardware
Recreation
Auto Rental
Sporting-Toy Stores
Interior Furnishings
Other Transport
Hotel-Motel
Travel Agencies
Clothing Stores
Restaurants-Bars
Airline
% change in spend(April 2020 vs April 2019)
Mar Apr May
Volumes**
Mar Apr May
Values*
Debit card turnover YTD, Rbn
Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May
2020
2019
LOCKDOWNS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACTIVITY LEVELS AND REVENUES IN APRIL 2020
PBB SA ACTIVITY LEVELS
Customer spend Card issuing turnover***
-61%
Branch activity
Mar Apr May
Values**
ATM activity
-38%-44%
-37%
Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May
2020
2019
Credit card turnover YTD, Rbn
***For 5 months to end of May 2019 and 2020
-43%
* % change relative to March 2020
** % change relative to March 2020
-22%
-11%-14%
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 15
SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN DISBURSEMENTS IN APRIL, SOME RECOVERY IN MAY
PBB SA ACTIVITY LEVELS
Personal lending disbursements, Rbn
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Face-to-face Digital
Lockdown
Mortgage disbursements, Rbn
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Lockdown
VAF* disbursements, Rbn
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Lockdown
* Average for 3 months
April vs March April vs MarchMay vs March May vs March
Before
lockdown*
During
lockdown
% of digital disbursements
100% 73% 72% 61%51%29%
* Vehicle asset finance
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 16
CLIENT FOCUS – CIBSUPPORTING OUR CLIENTS
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 17
PRINCIPLES-BASED PRIORITISATION AND SECTOR AND GEOGRAPHIC REVIEWS UNDERPIN CLIENT-SPECIFIC ACTIONS
CIB – RISK ASSESSMENT
• Country-specific considerations need to
be taken into account, for example:
❖ Oil-producing countries, e.g.
Angola, Ghana & Nigeria
❖ Commodity-exporters e.g.
Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia
❖ Markets which have experienced
disruptions to demand & supply
chains, e.g. Kenya
❖ Markets with fiscal constraints, e.g.
Namibia, Nigeria and SA
• Client reviews – case-by-case taking into
account leverage & outlook
• Lending - instalment holidays/restructures
• Working capital – limits & term
extensions
• Restructurings – subject to market
access
COUNTRY REVIEWS CLIENT-SPECIFIC ACTIONS
• Negatively impacted sectors split
between those where the impact is likely
to be felt more immediately, e.g.
Hospitality, and those where it is likely to
be more delayed, e.g. Manufacturing
• Less impacted sectors, e.g. Ecommerce
• A blanket risk categorisation cannot be
applied at a sector level
• Sectors need to be assessed at a sub-
sector and major client level e.g. TMT*
sub sectors impacted differently
SECTOR REVIEWS
• Prioritise existing clients over new clients
• Prioritise local currency lending over hard currency
• Review client leverage
PRINCIPLES
• Retain strong covenant discipline
• Respond quickly to client requests
• Manage client demand/pipelines within risk appetite
* Telecom, Media and Technology
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 18
APPETITE FOR HIGHER RISK SECTORS SUBJECT TO CLIENT-SPECIFIC MITIGATING FACTORS
CIB – CASE-BY-CASE CLIENT ASSESSMENT
• Impacted by inability to trade during lockdown and
associated rental concessions/discounts
• Reduced rental collections threat to covenants
• Long-term concern around income sustainability and
implied increase in sector vacancies
• Valuations impact unquantifiable with downward pressure
expected
• Forward-looking cashflows difficult to forecast on lagging
sub-sectors office
Commercial
Real Estate
Oil & Gas
Hospitality
• Significant oil price decline – recovery timeline and “new
norm” level uncertain
• Impact on oil-producers and countries reliant on export
revenues
• New projects on hold – Mozambique and Uganda
• Occupancy significantly down/closed
• Reopening uncertain
CONCERNS
• Diversified portfolio with >50% of portfolio large REITs
• Portfolio LTV 50% providing capacity to absorb declines
in valuations
• Low interest rate environment provides cashflow relief
• Long-term assets and therefore short term relief has
marginal impact on overall loan profiles
• Internal valuations provide comfort with medium term
impact in mind
• Improved portfolio profile as pivoted towards larger Tier
1 players (including multinationals)
• Diverse portfolio incl. up/mid/downstream
• Understand cost efficiency initiatives, cashflows and
break even levels and liquidity positions
• Focus on attractive business/leisure offerings
• Expect uptick from stay-cationers – pent up domestic
demand
STANDARD BANK FOCUS/MITIGANTSSECTORS
Non-
essential
retail
• Turnover impacted by lockdown
• Consumer demand once lockdown lifted – discretionary
vs non-discretionary
• Consider viability in medium-to-long term – subject to
cashflow outlook in recovery stage
Con
su
mer
~16%
~7%
<1%
<2%
% portfolio*
* Reflects % of CIB portfolio as at 30 April 2020, the Commercial Real Estate portfolio equates to c. R72bn and Oil & Gas portfolio equates to c. R28bn
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 19
EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENTSafety & well being a priority
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 20
PROVIDING RELEVANT INFORMATION WHICH IS EASILY ACCESSIBLE AND ONGOING SUPPORT IN TRYING TIMES
KEEPING OUR EMPLOYEES SAFE AND WELL
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 21
DIGITALLY-ENABLED TRAINING PLATFORMS FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING KEY FUTURE-READY SKILLS
HELPING OUR EMPLOYEES CONTINUE THEIR GROWTH JOURNEY
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 22
RISK & CONDUCTOperational resilience, governance and risk
management
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 23
155160
166
97
240
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Group CLR, bps
SBG PBB
CIB Analyst Min
Analyst Max
IFRS 9IAS 39
GFC COVID-19*
(analyst
forecasts)
Source: Standard Bank Group Annual Financial Statements and forecasts from broker notes
*Extracted from analyst expectations as at 31 May 2020
FY20 COST OF RISK EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE TOP OF THE GROUP’S THROUGH THE CYCLE RANGE AND GFC PEAK
RISK MANAGEMENT - CREDIT TRENDS AND OUTLOOK
• Impact of Covid-19 expected to be
much broader and macro outlook
significantly worse than GFC
• IFRS 9 has added additional
complexity
❖Forward-looking nature of
provisioning requirements
❖Risk of pro-cyclicality
❖Numerous assumptions required
• Comparability expected to be
difficult - uncertainty likely to drive
divergent assumptions
Historic Credit Loss Ratio & Analysts expectations for FY20
Through-the-cycle
range 70-100bps
bps
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 24
SARB DIRECTIVE AND GUIDANCE NOTES
LCR
CAR
IFRS 9
Overview
• Temporary reduction in regulatory minimum ratio from 100% to 80% - effective 1 April 2020
• Phase back to 100% post market normalisation to be determined by PA
Key Implications
• Results in lower minimum requirements providing temporary liquidity relief to banks during
this time, in line with the intention of the Basel II LCR framework
Overview
• Guidance notes on impairment treatment for IFRS 9 COVID -19 driven restructures
Key Implications
• No requirement to move COVID-19 restructures to Stage 2 or 3 (in the absence of other
credit risk concerns)
• Ring fencing of portfolio to distinguish between longer term credit and temporary COVID-
19 challenges
Overview
• Temporary relaxation of the Pillar 2A (P2A) capital requirements held for systemic risk
• Banks permitted to use conservation buffers subject to distribution prohibitions
Key Implications
• Current 0.5% CET1, 0.75% Tier 1 and 1% Total capital buffers all reduced to 0%
• Results in lower minimum requirements, lower requirements for AT1/T2 redemptions on call dates
and larger buffers to conservation levels
• Reduced buffers are not intended to support distributions
SARB
Directives/
Guidance
Note
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 25
FUNDING AND LIQUIDITYMONEY MARKET ACTIVITY REFLECTS MARKET PRESSURES
• SARB’s financial market support resulted in a peak market
liquidity surplus in excess of R50bn held at SAMOS. This
surplus has subsequently reduced to normal levels
• Banks’ utilisation of additional liquidity has closely followed
market pressures experienced across bond and money
markets
• Market pressure experienced in the second half of March
resulted in a significant amount of paper being sold back to
banks to generate liquidity within funds and for margin
requirements
• Liquidity conditions in the interbank market remained
unaffected during the market pressures
• Money market issuance conditions significantly improved in
the latter half of April and going into May
• By the end of May 2020, NCD pricing had returned to pre-
Covid-19 levels
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
01/2020 02/2020 03/2020 04/2020 05/2020
SBSA outstanding NCDs (Rbn)
SBSA outstanding NCDs
Source: STRATE
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
20-Feb 05-Mar 19-Mar 02-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 14-May 28-May
5 year NCD
Source: Bloomberg
5 year NCD spread pricing over Jibar
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 26
FUNDING AND LIQUIDITYLIQUIDITY REGULATORY POSITION
• SBG LCR in excess of minimum LCR
requirements
• SARB temporarily reduced the minimum LCR
requirements from 100% to 80% (effective 1
April 2020) – action was:
❖ In response to the COVID-19 impact on the
South African market
❖ In line with the intention of the Basel III
LCR framework
❖ To promote the continued provision of
credit by banks
• SBG NSFR in excess of minimum NSFR
requirements
123%119% 119% 119% 117%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Mar-20
SBG Net Stable Funding Ratio (%)
NSFR Minimum
121.3%116.8%
123.7%
138.4% 141.9%
90% 90%
100% 100% 100%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
150%
Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Mar-20
SBG Liquidity Coverage Ratio (%)
LCR*
Minimum
*LCR requirement reduced to 80% from April 2020
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 27
• SBG entered the crisis with robust capital ratios
• Key 1Q20 CET1 ratio adjustments driven by:
❖ 1Q20 earnings and FCTR (ZAR depreciation)
❖ Accrual of the FY19 final ordinary dividend
❖ Increase in RWA from:
▪ Client demand for extensions and drawdowns of facilities
stemming from COVID-19 market conditions
▪ Foreign exchange movements including ZAR depreciation
• Capital forecasting/scenario planning:
❖ No FY20 interim ordinary dividend
❖ Sufficient capital to pay preference dividends and AT1 and
Tier II coupons
❖ Array of mitigating actions available to manage CET1
• Capital expected to remain above regulatory minimums under
the scenarios as currently contemplated
ROBUST CAPITAL RATIOS – REMAIN ABOVE REGULATORY MINIMA IN ALL MARKETS
CAPITAL
1 274
12.9%
SARB regulatory minimum, 7.5%*
* SARB regulatory minimum changed to 7.0% from 6 April 2020
**Common equity tier 1 ratio adjusted for the SARB IFRS 9 transitional impact
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 28
FINANCIAL OUTCOMEAdapting in an uncertain environment
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 29
Local currency vs USD, % change YTD** Inflation rate change 1Q20 vs 4Q19, %
Local real GDP, % change YOYPolicy interest rate change YTD, %
0.21.9
6.03.6
-8.5
-4.2
2.0
-0.7
SA S&C East West
2019 2020F**
24%
17%
3%
10%
SA S&C East West
0.1
0.9
-0.4
1.7
SA S&C East West
MACRO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS AGGREGATED ACCORDING TO KEY AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC SEGMENTS*
KEY MACRO INDICATORS LIKELY TO IMPACT STANDARD BANK’S PERFORMANCE
• Large currency movements relative to the
USD year to date
• Inflation relatively subdued despite
currency weakness
• Interest rate cuts in all but 3 markets
• Expect real GDP to decline in 12 of our
20 Africa countries
❖SA, Botswana and Namibia expected to be
worst impacted
❖All East Africa countries expected to remain
positive
* South & Central (S&C) includes Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi,
Mozambique, Namibia, Eswatini, Zambia, Zimbabwe; East includes
Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda; West includes
Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, DRC, Ghana, Nigeria. Statistics excl. Zimbabwe,
South Sudan & Ethiopia. Detail as at 1 June 2020
** 2020F is median outlook except SA which reflects SBG Research
view
** Positive reflects weakness vs USD SA CPI expected to decline in
2Q20 and FY20 YOY
-2.75
-1.53
-0.83-1.25
SA S&C East West
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 30
COMMENTARY ON FACTORS INFLUENCING FY20 OUTLOOK
FINANCIAL OUTCOME
• ZAR is likely to be weaker on average relative to the USD and the Africa
Regions’ currencies year on year - this will support the earnings contribution
from Africa Regions
ZAR weakness
Loans/Deposits
*If the pandemic-related impacts are deeper or more sustained than currently expected under SBG scenarios, or government actions are not effective, the group’s
results could vary meaningfully
Capital
Liquidity & Funding
• Loan and deposit growth expected to slow
• Low business and consumer confidence levels are expected to continue to be a
constraint on the secured portfolio growth
• Unsecured lending growth will be subject to individual affordability and
business and sector viability over the medium term
• CET1 higher than going into GFC and large buffer to CET1 regulatory minimum
• Regulatory relief – restructured loan treatment and removal of Pillar 2a
• In line with Prudential Authority guidance, no FY20 interim ordinary dividend
• CET1 ratio expected to remain strong and above required minimums with
capacity to pay preference share dividends and AT1 coupons
• LCR and NSFR expected to remain above regulatory minimums
• Translation benefit of non-SA earnings due to
relatively weaker ZAR
• Robust loan growth driven by corporate, SME
& personal unsecured demand
• Strong deposit growth
• Strong capital adequacy allows client support
and balance sheet growth
• Credit deterioration and ZAR weakness drove
higher RWA
• Capital markets opening up and pricing
improving
• LCR & NSFR above regulatory minimums
FY20 COMMENTARY*4M20 TRENDSDRIVERS
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 31
COMMENTARY ON FACTORS INFLUENCING FY20 OUTLOOK
FINANCIAL OUTCOME
• Progressive interest rate cuts resulting in margin
compression
• Higher cost of funding driven by market dislocation and
progressive rating downgrades
• Mortgages and VAF disbursements disrupted by lockdowns
• Higher volatility drove client activity and flows, and in
turn, higher trading revenue
• Lockdowns negatively impacted demand and transaction
volumes
• Fee waivers/cuts, insurance premium cuts and loss of
income claims and higher reward costs were a drag
• Higher costs due to employee and client safety
protocols/equipment, work-from-home and IT resilience
spend & CSI initiatives
• Partially offset by lower discretionary spend and lower travel
and entertainment
• Broad-based macro deterioration
• Lockdowns negatively impacted businesses and individuals
FY20 COMMENTARY*4M20 TRENDSDRIVERS
Net interest income
Non-interest
revenue
Operating expenses
Credit impairment
charges
• NII supported by balance sheet growth
• Meaningful decrease in NIM due to higher funding costs and
negative endowment
• Trading revenue 4M20 run rate to slow
• Impacted by the slowdown in activity associated with the
continued lockdowns
• Dependent on the pace and magnitude of the recovery in 2H20
• Containing operating expense growth remains a focus
• Not at the expense of the resilience of our systems or our
ongoing digital customer journeys
• The greatest potential for variability and dependent on the depth
of the recession and pace of the recovery
• Credit loss ratio will be above the group’s through-the-cycle
range of 70 -100bps and may exceed the GFC peak (160 bps)
• Will ensure appropriate provisioning for portfolios granted
payment holidays (based on alternative credit parameters)
*If the pandemic-related impacts are deeper or more sustained than currently expected under SBG scenarios, or government actions are not effective, the group’s results could
vary meaningfully
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 32
SEE IMPACTDriving positive SEE impact
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 33
SUPPORTING OUR COMMUNITIES
HEALTH
• Funding and sourcing medical
supplies & food parcels
• Working with different partners
across the continent, including
trusted NGOs, government
departments, and international
agencies like UNICEF
JOBS & ENTERPRISES
• Supporting job protection
schemes e.g. Covid-19 Loan
Guarantee Scheme and SA
Future Trust
• Connecting suppliers & clients to
Covid-19 business opportunities
EDUCATION
• Working with our early
childhood development
partners
• Assisting with the set-up of
online learning
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 34
WAY FORWARDWhat we are doing to address uncertainty
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 35
PURPOSEFUL IN OUR RESPONSE & DILIGENT IN OUR EXECUTION
WAY FORWARD
• The environment remains fluid and uncertain, and lowers the
confidence with which financial outcomes are forecast
• Latest macros reflect that the crisis will be more protracted than
originally predicted
• The capital and liquidity position is expected to remain within risk
appetite
• Our priorities remain focused on:
❖Supporting our clients;
❖Caring for our staff and maintaining business continuity;
❖Preserving balance sheet strength and prioritising resource
allocations; and
❖Positioning Standard Bank Group to emerge stronger
Positioning
SBG to emerge
stronger
OPERATING IN A COVID-19 WORLD / PAGE 36
THANK YOU