Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

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Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: of Genes: The Economics of Planting The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007 February 23, 2007 Paul D. Mitchell Paul D. Mitchell UW-Madison Ag & Applied Economics UW-Madison Ag & Applied Economics Office: (608) 265-6514 Cell: Office: (608) 265-6514 Cell: (608) 320-1162 (608) 320-1162 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Extension Web Page: Extension Web Page: www.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/ www.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/ extension.htm extension.htm

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Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007. Paul D. Mitchell UW-Madison Ag & Applied Economics Office: (608) 265-6514 Cell: (608) 320-1162 Email: [email protected] Extension Web Page: www.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/extension.htm. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Page 1: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes:Genes:

The Economics of Planting The Economics of Planting Transgenic SeedsTransgenic Seeds

February 23, 2007February 23, 2007Paul D. MitchellPaul D. Mitchell

UW-Madison Ag & Applied EconomicsUW-Madison Ag & Applied Economics

Office: (608) 265-6514 Cell: (608) 320-Office: (608) 265-6514 Cell: (608) 320-11621162

Email: [email protected]: [email protected]

Extension Web Page:Extension Web Page:

www.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/www.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/extension.htmextension.htm

Page 2: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Transgenic AgricultureTransgenic Agriculture After about 10 years, transgenics are an After about 10 years, transgenics are an

established part of U.S. crop productionestablished part of U.S. crop production 89% of U.S. soybean acres and 61% of corn 89% of U.S. soybean acres and 61% of corn

acres were transgenic in 2006acres were transgenic in 2006 In Wisconsin: 85% soybeans, 50% cornIn Wisconsin: 85% soybeans, 50% corn

What have transgenics meant for farmers?What have transgenics meant for farmers? Higher yields (lower prices?)Higher yields (lower prices?) Easier weed control (more low/no till?)Easier weed control (more low/no till?) Higher seed costs due to tech feesHigher seed costs due to tech fees Weed and insect resistance managementWeed and insect resistance management Lots of traits, bundled in different Lots of traits, bundled in different

combinations combinations

Page 3: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Focus TodayFocus Today

What do you get for your money?What do you get for your money? Value of the different transgenic traitsValue of the different transgenic traits

Resistance ManagementResistance Management What are its costs and benefits?What are its costs and benefits?

Risk ManagementRisk Management How to protect your investmentHow to protect your investment

Page 4: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Corn Gene StacksCorn Gene Stacks

7 transgenic combinations available7 transgenic combinations available 3 Single Stacks:3 Single Stacks: RR corn, Corn Borer RR corn, Corn Borer

(CB) Bt corn, Rootworm (RW) Bt corn(CB) Bt corn, Rootworm (RW) Bt corn 3 Double Stacks:3 Double Stacks: CB Bt corn + RR, CB Bt corn + RR,

RW Bt corn + RR, CB + RW Bt cornRW Bt corn + RR, CB + RW Bt corn 1 Triple Stack:1 Triple Stack: CB + RW Bt corn + RR CB + RW Bt corn + RR Many different conventional hybrids Many different conventional hybrids

to put these traits into in all the to put these traits into in all the different possible combinationsdifferent possible combinations

Page 5: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Total Tech Fee by BundleTotal Tech Fee by BundleBased on Roundup Rewards Program Based on Roundup Rewards Program

refund rates for Monsanto traitsrefund rates for Monsanto traits

RRRR CB BtCB Bt RW BtRW Bt Tech FeeTech Fee

XX $26/bag$26/bag

XX $24/bag$24/bag

XX XX $38/bag$38/bag

XX $45/bag$45/bag

XX XX $55/bag$55/bag

XX XX $55/bag$55/bag

XX XX XX $70/bag$70/bag

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Tech Fees by Trait Lower in Tech Fees by Trait Lower in BundlesBundles

TraitTrait AloneAlone BundledBundled

Roundup Roundup ReadyReady

$26/bag$26/bag$14 with CB Bt$14 with CB Bt

$10 with RW Bt$10 with RW Bt

$15 with CB+RW Bt$15 with CB+RW Bt

Corn Borer BtCorn Borer Bt $24/bag$24/bag$12 with RR$12 with RR

$10 with RW$10 with RW

$15 with RW+RR$15 with RW+RR

Rootworm BtRootworm Bt $45/bag$45/bag$29 with RR$29 with RR

$31 with CB Bt$31 with CB Bt

$32 with CB+RR$32 with CB+RR

Page 7: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Companies want you to Companies want you to bundlebundle

Traits most expensive when bought as Traits most expensive when bought as a single stacka single stack

Traits least expensive when added onto Traits least expensive when added onto a single stack (double stacks are best a single stack (double stacks are best deal)deal)

Adding a trait onto a double stack costs Adding a trait onto a double stack costs $1-$5/bag more than adding it onto a $1-$5/bag more than adding it onto a single stack (expect this cost to fall)single stack (expect this cost to fall)

Page 8: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Trait ValuationTrait Valuation

What is the What is the ExpectedExpected Value, before Value, before you plant or know how the season you plant or know how the season develops?develops?

First look at Corn Borer Bt cornFirst look at Corn Borer Bt corn Next Look at Rootworm Bt cornNext Look at Rootworm Bt corn Last: look at Roundup Ready cornLast: look at Roundup Ready corn

Page 9: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Value of Corn Borer Bt CornValue of Corn Borer Bt Corn Depends on European Corn Borer (ECB) Depends on European Corn Borer (ECB)

population, which is randompopulation, which is random Estimate ECB population distribution using Estimate ECB population distribution using

DATCP population data collected since 1940’sDATCP population data collected since 1940’s Estimate distribution of stalk tunneling given Estimate distribution of stalk tunneling given

ECB population (Mitchell et al. 2002)ECB population (Mitchell et al. 2002) Estimate distribution of % yield loss given Estimate distribution of % yield loss given

stalk tunneling (Hurley, Mitchell, and Rice stalk tunneling (Hurley, Mitchell, and Rice 2004)2004)

Final ResultFinal Result: Distribution of % Yield Loss from : Distribution of % Yield Loss from ECB for each WI crop reporting districtECB for each WI crop reporting district

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Distribution of % Yield Loss in Distribution of % Yield Loss in East Central WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Yield Loss

Prob

abili

ty

Expected (Average) Loss = 3.7%

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Spreadsheet Decision AidSpreadsheet Decision AidFarmer Enters Farmer Enters

Expected Yield (bu/ac)Expected Yield (bu/ac) Expected Price ($/bu)Expected Price ($/bu) Tech Fee ($/bag)Tech Fee ($/bag) Planting Density (seeds/acre)Planting Density (seeds/acre)

Decision Aid EstimatesDecision Aid Estimates Expected Net Benefit of Bt Corn Expected Net Benefit of Bt Corn

($/ac)($/ac) Break-Even Probability (%)Break-Even Probability (%)

Page 12: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Expected (Average) Net Expected (Average) Net BenefitBenefit

Expected net return ($/ac) to CB Bt corn Expected net return ($/ac) to CB Bt corn based on random ECB population, based on random ECB population, tunneling, and % yield losstunneling, and % yield loss

Long run average if planted CB Bt corn Long run average if planted CB Bt corn over many yearsover many years

= Price x Yield x % Yield Loss Prevented= Price x Yield x % Yield Loss Prevented

– – Tech FeeTech Fee Depends on assumed price, yield, tech Depends on assumed price, yield, tech

fee and regionfee and region

Page 13: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Break-Even ProbabilityBreak-Even Probability Because ECB population, tunneling, Because ECB population, tunneling,

and % yield loss are random, Net and % yield loss are random, Net Returns to CB Bt corn are randomReturns to CB Bt corn are random

If the If the averageaverage net benefit is $5/ac net benefit is $5/ac does not mean the does not mean the actualactual net benefit net benefit will always be $5/acwill always be $5/ac

Break-Even Probability: Probability Break-Even Probability: Probability that the value of the yield saved by Bt that the value of the yield saved by Bt corn will corn will equal or exceedequal or exceed the extra the extra cost of Bt corncost of Bt corn

Page 14: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Summary: East Central Summary: East Central WisconsinWisconsin

Expected loss from ECB: 3.7%Expected loss from ECB: 3.7% Assume a $10/ac tech feeAssume a $10/ac tech fee

$24/bag, 33,333 planting $24/bag, 33,333 planting densitydensity

At current high corn prices, At current high corn prices, low expected corn yields still low expected corn yields still make CB Bt corn worth buyingmake CB Bt corn worth buying

Table: Expected yield needed Table: Expected yield needed at each price to justify costat each price to justify cost

Main Point: Buy CB Bt cornMain Point: Buy CB Bt corn

PricPricee

ExpectedExpected

YieldYield

3.003.00 90.190.1

3.253.25 83.283.2

3.503.50 77.277.2

3.753.75 72.172.1

4.004.00 67.667.6

4.254.25 63.663.6

4.504.50 60.160.1

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Value of Rootworm Bt CornValue of Rootworm Bt Corn

Do not have the data to develop a system Do not have the data to develop a system for RW Bt corn like I have for CB Bt cornfor RW Bt corn like I have for CB Bt corn

Recommendations based on my published Recommendations based on my published work and research experiencework and research experience

No Rootworm problems in Rotated No Rootworm problems in Rotated CornCorn No need for rootworm control in rotated cornNo need for rootworm control in rotated corn No problems with soybean variant WCR or NCR No problems with soybean variant WCR or NCR

extended diapause in this part of stateextended diapause in this part of state Main Point: Rotate corn to control RWMain Point: Rotate corn to control RW

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RW Bt corn in Corn after RW Bt corn in Corn after CornCorn

Available RW Control OptionsAvailable RW Control Options RW Bt corn, Soil Insecticides, Seed TreatmentsRW Bt corn, Soil Insecticides, Seed Treatments NoneNone provides complete control provides complete control All three control other seed/root pestsAll three control other seed/root pests

RW Bt corn as good as or better than Soil RW Bt corn as good as or better than Soil Insecticides and Seed Treatments for RWInsecticides and Seed Treatments for RW

Seed Treatments generally least effectiveSeed Treatments generally least effective Which is the most economical?Which is the most economical?

Page 17: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Cost of RW ControlCost of RW Control

RW Bt corn tech fee about $18-$20/ac RW Bt corn tech fee about $18-$20/ac alone, $12-$13/ac as double stackalone, $12-$13/ac as double stack

Soil Insecticides also $18-$20/acSoil Insecticides also $18-$20/ac Seed Treatments $15/bag, or about Seed Treatments $15/bag, or about

$6/ac$6/ac How many bushels do you need to How many bushels do you need to

save to justify these costs?save to justify these costs?

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Bushels Needed to Justify Bushels Needed to Justify CostCostSeed Seed

TreatmentTreatment RW Double RW Double StackStack

RW Single StackRW Single Stack

Soil InsecticideSoil Insecticide

PricePrice $6/ac$6/ac $12/ac$12/ac $18/ac$18/ac

2.002.00 3.03.0 6.06.0 9.09.0

2.252.25 2.72.7 5.35.3 8.08.0

2.502.50 2.42.4 4.84.8 7.27.2

2.752.75 2.22.2 4.44.4 6.56.5

3.003.00 2.02.0 4.04.0 6.06.0

3.253.25 1.81.8 3.73.7 5.55.5

3.503.50 1.71.7 3.43.4 5.15.1

3.753.75 1.61.6 3.23.2 4.84.8

4.004.00 1.51.5 3.03.0 4.54.5

4.254.25 1.41.4 2.82.8 4.24.2

4.504.50 1.31.3 2.72.7 4.04.0

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Main PointMain Point

At current corn prices and costs, to justify At current corn prices and costs, to justify these treatments, need to these treatments, need to expectexpect to save to save 1.5-2 bu/ac for seed treatment1.5-2 bu/ac for seed treatment 3-4 bu/ac for RW in double stack3-4 bu/ac for RW in double stack 4.5-6 bu/ac for RW single stack or soil 4.5-6 bu/ac for RW single stack or soil

insecticideinsecticide Expected savings will depend on CRW Expected savings will depend on CRW

pressure—how bad is it in your area?pressure—how bad is it in your area?

Page 20: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

RW pressure in East Central RW pressure in East Central WIWI

I do not have data on RW pressure in EC WII do not have data on RW pressure in EC WI UW Corn Hybrid Performance TrialsUW Corn Hybrid Performance Trials

Trials at Fon du Lac, Seymour, Valders Trials at Fon du Lac, Seymour, Valders Compare RW Bt to hybrids without the geneCompare RW Bt to hybrids without the gene Compare and see bu difference and lodging over Compare and see bu difference and lodging over

the last few years: is it worth it?the last few years: is it worth it? Work with county ag agent or dig through Work with county ag agent or dig through

publicationpublication Work with UWEX to run your own trialWork with UWEX to run your own trial Do you already treat for RW?Do you already treat for RW?

What have you found for performance?What have you found for performance? What do you get for your money?What do you get for your money? Leave some untreated rows to seeLeave some untreated rows to see Ask neighbors what they doAsk neighbors what they do

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Some things to think aboutSome things to think about RW Bt corn vs Soil InsecticideRW Bt corn vs Soil Insecticide

As good as or better controlAs good as or better control More consistent/dependable controlMore consistent/dependable control Safer to use for people and environmentSafer to use for people and environment More convenient to use: no insecticide boxesMore convenient to use: no insecticide boxes

RW Bt corn vs Seed TreatmentsRW Bt corn vs Seed Treatments Better control with RW BtBetter control with RW Bt Both convenient to use (but need refuge for Bt)Both convenient to use (but need refuge for Bt) Both safer to useBoth safer to use

All three control more pests than just All three control more pests than just RootwormsRootworms

Page 22: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Main Point/SummaryMain Point/Summary If you think you need some soil insect If you think you need some soil insect

protection for corn after cornprotection for corn after corn Seed Treatment the Seed Treatment the cheapestcheapest, but worst , but worst

controlcontrol RW Bt Corn as double stack best deal—RW Bt Corn as double stack best deal—

most protection at cheapest costmost protection at cheapest cost RW Bt Corn as single stack: comparable to a RW Bt Corn as single stack: comparable to a

soil insecticide in costsoil insecticide in cost Soil insecticide good backup, especially if did Soil insecticide good backup, especially if did

not order, or buy RW Bt or Seed treatmentnot order, or buy RW Bt or Seed treatment None of these perfect: Refuge, Efficacy, None of these perfect: Refuge, Efficacy,

Safety and ConsistencySafety and Consistency

Page 23: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Roundup Ready TraitRoundup Ready Trait

Cost for RR corn traitCost for RR corn trait $10-$11/ac if single stack$10-$11/ac if single stack $4-$6/ac as a bundled stack trait$4-$6/ac as a bundled stack trait

Weed Resistance: Major problem arising Weed Resistance: Major problem arising due to over use of Roundup: several due to over use of Roundup: several instances in U.S.instances in U.S.

Recommend:Recommend: Do not rely solely/primarily Do not rely solely/primarily on Roundup for weed control in Corn after on Roundup for weed control in Corn after RR Soybeans that use Roundup as primary RR Soybeans that use Roundup as primary weed control methodweed control method

Page 24: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Value of RR cornValue of RR corn Do not rely on RR trait for weed control, rather Do not rely on RR trait for weed control, rather

treat RR tech fee as the cost to buy the option treat RR tech fee as the cost to buy the option for a weed rescue treatment if neededfor a weed rescue treatment if needed

Rely on some standard, non-Roundup, weed Rely on some standard, non-Roundup, weed control, then use Roundup only if you have a control, then use Roundup only if you have a weed control failure or an escapeweed control failure or an escape

Gives good weed control, plus preserves Gives good weed control, plus preserves Roundup for your soybeans and the Roundup Roundup for your soybeans and the Roundup option for your corn, but costs moreoption for your corn, but costs more

Fails as resistance management if you end up Fails as resistance management if you end up using Roundup on corn most/many yearsusing Roundup on corn most/many years

Page 25: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Resistance ManagementResistance ManagementNew Issue due to TransgenicsNew Issue due to Transgenics

Weed Resistance:Weed Resistance: rotate modes of action—do rotate modes of action—do not keep using only Roundup year after yearnot keep using only Roundup year after year

Insect Resistance for Bt Corn:Insect Resistance for Bt Corn: 20% non-Bt refuge 20% non-Bt refuge

● ● Within ½ mile for CB Bt ● Adjacent for RW BtWithin ½ mile for CB Bt ● Adjacent for RW Bt Use soil insecticide/seed treatment for RW Use soil insecticide/seed treatment for RW

refugerefuge Choose the refuge configuration that works best Choose the refuge configuration that works best

for youfor you

Page 26: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Resistance ManagementResistance ManagementNew Issue due to TransgenicsNew Issue due to Transgenics

Weed Resistance:Weed Resistance: rotate modes of action— rotate modes of action—do not keep using only Roundup year after do not keep using only Roundup year after yearyear

Insect Resistance for Bt Corn:Insect Resistance for Bt Corn: 20% non-Bt refuge20% non-Bt refuge Within ½ mile for CB BtWithin ½ mile for CB Bt Adjacent for RW BtAdjacent for RW Bt

Can use a soil insecticide or seed treatment Can use a soil insecticide or seed treatment on RW refugeon RW refuge

Choose the refuge configuration that works Choose the refuge configuration that works best for you: are many possibilitiesbest for you: are many possibilities

Page 27: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Expected Cost of CB RefugeExpected Cost of CB Refuge

You give up ECB control in refuge, so You give up ECB control in refuge, so expect to lose some yield—How much?expect to lose some yield—How much?

Expected Cost of CB Refuge in terms of Expected Cost of CB Refuge in terms of ECB damage, spread over whole fieldECB damage, spread over whole field = price x yield x % refuge x % ECB = price x yield x % refuge x % ECB lossloss

Expected yield loss from ECB in East Expected yield loss from ECB in East Central Wisconsin = 3.7%Central Wisconsin = 3.7%

Refuge = 20%Refuge = 20%

Page 28: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Expected Cost $/ac for ECB Expected Cost $/ac for ECB RefugeRefuge

Spread Over Whole FieldSpread Over Whole Field100100 110110 120120 130130 140140 150150 160160

3.003.00 2.222.22 2.442.44 2.662.66 2.892.89 3.113.11 3.333.33 3.553.55

3.253.25 2.412.41 2.652.65 2.892.89 3.133.13 3.373.37 3.613.61 3.853.85

3.503.50 2.592.59 2.852.85 3.113.11 3.373.37 3.633.63 3.893.89 4.144.14

3.753.75 2.782.78 3.053.05 3.333.33 3.613.61 3.893.89 4.164.16 4.444.44

4.004.00 2.962.96 3.263.26 3.553.55 3.853.85 4.144.14 4.444.44 4.744.74

4.254.25 3.153.15 3.463.46 3.773.77 4.094.09 4.404.40 4.724.72 5.035.03

4.504.50 3.333.33 3.663.66 4.004.00 4.334.33 4.664.66 5.005.00 5.335.33

pricpricee

yielyieldd

Page 29: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Main PointMain Point

ExpectedExpected cost of CB Bt corn refuge is cost of CB Bt corn refuge is about $3-$5/ac this year—not too muchabout $3-$5/ac this year—not too much

ExpectedExpected cost of RW Bt corn refuge? cost of RW Bt corn refuge? Low if use seed treatment or soil Low if use seed treatment or soil

insecticide on your refugeinsecticide on your refuge Main point: refuge does cost money, but Main point: refuge does cost money, but

not too much, plus refuge has benefitsnot too much, plus refuge has benefits

Page 30: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Benefits of RefugeBenefits of Refuge Doing the right thing!Doing the right thing! Compliance Assurance Program (CAP) Compliance Assurance Program (CAP)

doing on farm inspections and imposing doing on farm inspections and imposing penalties for violationspenalties for violations

Valuable Data: compare yields between Valuable Data: compare yields between refuge and Bt and calculate the actual refuge and Bt and calculate the actual cost of refuge and the actual yield cost of refuge and the actual yield benefitbenefit

Use data over years and fields to see Use data over years and fields to see your average (expected) benefit and your average (expected) benefit and costs, plus how your benefit and costs costs, plus how your benefit and costs have changedhave changed

Page 31: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Risk ManagementRisk Management High input costs means you are making a High input costs means you are making a

larger investment when you plant your crop larger investment when you plant your crop Seed costs from transgenic tech feesSeed costs from transgenic tech fees Fertilizer and Fuel costs higher, Labor as wellFertilizer and Fuel costs higher, Labor as well

High corn prices means expected value of High corn prices means expected value of your crop is higher than in year pastyour crop is higher than in year past

Use crop insurance toUse crop insurance to Ensure recover some/all of your input costsEnsure recover some/all of your input costs Reap benefits of high corn pricesReap benefits of high corn prices

2007 a year to consider crop insurance2007 a year to consider crop insurance

Page 32: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Crop InsuranceCrop Insurance 4 types for corn and soybeans in 4 types for corn and soybeans in

WisconsinWisconsin Insure your yield—Insure your yield—APHAPH Insure your yield and market price—Insure your yield and market price—CRCCRC Insure county yield—Insure county yield—GRPGRP Insure county yield and market price—Insure county yield and market price—

GRIPGRIP Must decide by March 15Must decide by March 15thth

Page 33: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Crop Insurance Hints for Crop Insurance Hints for 20072007

Just completed 2 page Fact SheetJust completed 2 page Fact Sheet Yield/weather risk same as in other yearsYield/weather risk same as in other years Is price risk greater this year?Is price risk greater this year? Good year to consider revenue (price x Good year to consider revenue (price x

yield) insurance: CRC or GRIPyield) insurance: CRC or GRIP If prices drop, you’d like to have current If prices drop, you’d like to have current

high prices locked in for your crophigh prices locked in for your crop If prices go higher, you’d like to be sure you If prices go higher, you’d like to be sure you

have grain to sell or can buy grain for have grain to sell or can buy grain for livestocklivestock

CRC and GRIP meant for these risksCRC and GRIP meant for these risks

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CRC vs GRIPCRC vs GRIP CRC pays indemnities based on your CRC pays indemnities based on your

yield and CBOT pricesyield and CBOT prices Need established yield historyNeed established yield history Pay more for individual based coveragePay more for individual based coverage

GRIP pays based on county yield and GRIP pays based on county yield and CBOT pricesCBOT prices Do not need yield historyDo not need yield history Generally cheaper than CRCGenerally cheaper than CRC Good deal if your yield follows county Good deal if your yield follows county

yieldyield

Page 35: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

GRP/GRIP generally a good GRP/GRIP generally a good deal in this part of Wisconsindeal in this part of Wisconsin

Just competed analysis of GRP for corn and Just competed analysis of GRP for corn and soybeans for each Wisconsin countysoybeans for each Wisconsin county

Color maps available on my web pageColor maps available on my web pagewww.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/extension.htmwww.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/extension.htm

These counties show These counties show on averageon average, positive , positive net return to GRP (and GRIP) for corn, net return to GRP (and GRIP) for corn, especially with the especially with the Planted Acres OptionPlanted Acres Option

GRP (or GRIP) not good deal for soybeansGRP (or GRIP) not good deal for soybeans

Page 36: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

> 1 bu/ac 0 to 1 bu/ac –1 to 0 bu/ac –2 to –1 bu/ac < –2 bu/ac

Expected Returns (bu/ac) toGRP Harvested Acres Option

Corn

Page 37: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

> 1 bu/ac 0 to 1 bu/ac –1 to 0 bu/ac –2 to –1 bu/ac < –2 bu/ac

Expected Returns (bu/ac) toGRP Planted Acres Option

Corn

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> 1 bu/ac ½ to 1 bu/ac 0 to ½ bu/ac –½ to 0 bu/ac < –2 bu/ac No Data

Expected Returns (bu/ac)to GRP for Soybeans

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Other Quick HintsOther Quick Hints Coverage Level:Coverage Level: Usually 70-75% for CRC or Usually 70-75% for CRC or

APH best deal, sometimes 65% or 80%APH best deal, sometimes 65% or 80% Price Election:Price Election: Take 100%/maximum Take 100%/maximum Units:Units: Get as many Optional Units as can Get as many Optional Units as can Livestock/Dairy:Livestock/Dairy: use crop insurance so can buy use crop insurance so can buy

grain if your yield failsgrain if your yield fails Irrigation:Irrigation: Low yield risk, look at GRP/GRIP Low yield risk, look at GRP/GRIP Low Yields:Low Yields: Use yield plug and floor, try Use yield plug and floor, try

GRP/GRIPGRP/GRIP Short/No Yield History:Short/No Yield History: Use GRP/GRIP as Use GRP/GRIP as

establish historyestablish history

Page 40: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Summary/ConclusionSummary/Conclusion Transgenic Seed Cost: double stack best Transgenic Seed Cost: double stack best

deal, single stack most expensivedeal, single stack most expensive CB Bt corn: worth the cost in EC WisconsinCB Bt corn: worth the cost in EC Wisconsin Plant RW Bt corn only after corn, and only Plant RW Bt corn only after corn, and only

if need RW control—you decideif need RW control—you decide Plant CB Refuge: costs $3-$5/ac of cornPlant CB Refuge: costs $3-$5/ac of corn Plant RW Refuge: treat with soil Plant RW Refuge: treat with soil

insecticide or seed treatmentinsecticide or seed treatment RR trait: Gives option to fix control failures RR trait: Gives option to fix control failures

or weed escapes, don’t use as main or weed escapes, don’t use as main controlcontrol

Consider crop insurance: CRC/GRIPConsider crop insurance: CRC/GRIP

Page 41: Stacks of Bills vs. Stacks of Genes: The Economics of Planting Transgenic Seeds February 23, 2007

Questions?Questions?

Paul D. MitchellPaul D. Mitchell

UW-Madison Ag & Applied EconomicsUW-Madison Ag & Applied Economics

Office: (608) 265-6514 Cell: (608) 320-Office: (608) 265-6514 Cell: (608) 320-11621162

Email: [email protected]: [email protected]

Extension Web Page:Extension Web Page:

www.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/www.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/extension.htmextension.htm