STA220 L0601: PRACTICE OF STATISTICS
Transcript of STA220 L0601: PRACTICE OF STATISTICS
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STA220 L0601: PRACTICE OF STATISTICS
Introduction
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WHAT IS STATISTICS?
•Study of the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data (Wikipedia)
•Need quantitative data to use statistics … but lots of subjects/problems can be quantified.
•Examples: Environment; Medicine; International Law; political campaigns.
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WHAT IS STATISTICS?Statistics is good for identifying patterns in population data (e.g. weather).
Two years ago Last year This year
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WHAT STATISTICS ISN’T•Why do people choose to drink bottled water?• Ethnography is a qualitative research design aimed at exploring cultural phenomena.•By one-on-one interviews can learn about why people choose plastic over reusable
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WHAT STATISTICS ISN’T•Researcher found that brand preferences carry over to water and people will argue over which brand of water is best.•This might be difficult to discover in a survey unless you asked a specific question.•Qualitative research can be used to formulate hypotheses that can be quantified.
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WHAT STATISTICS ISN’T?• Training children to
recognize areas that might contain land mines around Thailand Cambodia border.
• Red Cross thought about using skull and crossbones but not recognized as a symbol of danger.
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PREDICTION
• A turkey is fed for 1,000 days and every day seems to confirm that the farmer cares for the turkey (Taleb, The Black Swan).
• Every feeding produces data that a member of the human race is looking for its ‘best interests’.
• How much confidence should the turkey put in this data?
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THIS COURSE•Teaches the basics of statistical analysis and reasoning• Is intended for students with Grade 12 math and one University course in physical/social/life sciences•3 lecture hours per week •No tutorial!
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WHAT’S STA220 ABOUT?•At the end of this course, you will• Know how to apply many common
statistical methods• Know how to critique these statistical
methods• Have a sense of what statisticians do• Have an appreciation for how statistical
methods is applied to other fields
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ADMINISTRATIVE STUFF• The course info.
Sheet has all the key administrative details.• The course will
use The UofT Learning Portal as it’s main website.
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COURSEWORK OVERVIEWWeekly online quizzes 10% Sundays at 23:59 (except
the weeks of the term test)
Midterm #1 15% Wednesday October 21, 1600-1700
Midterm # 2 15% Wednesday, November 18, 1600-1700
In class problems 9% Last 20-30 minutes of Monday’s class most weeks
Research survey 1% within 1 week of enrolling
Final exam 50% Scheduled by A&S
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INVERTED CLASSROOM
• Before lectures: watch lecture videos, complete in-video quizzes, and complete weekly quiz.•During lecture: participate in activities and exercises that apply what was introduced in videos and hand in in-class problems. • Solve more complex problems that combine topics.•Week 2 prep due by 23:59 Sunday, September 20.
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VIDEO LECTURES AND NOTES
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MUDDIEST POINT: PIAZZA
•Every week I want your opinion about difficult points in the course material.•These points can be posted in a weekly discussion forum hosted on Piazza.
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MUDDIEST POINT: PIAZZA• If you see your question or like a classmates then simply upvote the question.• I will review top question(s) weekly.• Similar questions might appear on midterm and final test.
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QUIZZES• By each Sunday at 23:59
you must complete the online quiz to receive credit• The quiz will cover material
in the videos to be watched that week• Multiple choice and true/
false questions • Number of questions vary
from week to week• Can take the quiz as many
times as you want, but each time you will get a different randomly generated quiz
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IN-CLASS HAND-IN PROBLEMS• I will put a problem up during the last 20-30 minutes of Monday’s
class.
• At the end of class you will hand these into a TA.
• Your answers will be marked according to the following rubric:
0: not submitted or blank paper;
1: incorrect or correct answers with no rationale
2: incorrect or correct answer with rationale.
• We will not hand back your answers but we will post solutions.
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PRACTICE PROBLEMSEach week practice problems will be posted.
Additional problems can be found in the two recommended textbooks.
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STATISTICAL SOFTWARE• We will use the R statistical
software for statistical computing• You will need to know how
to interpret output from R.• You will not need to know
R commands. • If you want to know how to
do the analysis yourself using R then you can watch the optional R videos which show how to replicate the work done in the videos
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PARTNERS• In-video quizzes may be done with a partner.•OK for weekly quizzes and in-class problems but all work must be your own.•You can pick your partners.•Get to know your neighbours.•Online discussion forum on Piazza - great for meeting people.
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MIDTERM TESTS
•During lecture time•45 minutes• Location will be posted on the course webpage.•No partners for test!
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FINAL EXAM
• Scheduled by faculty of Arts and Science •We can’t change it!•All exceptions must be handled through the Office of the Faculty Registrar : we can’t set a makeup test, we can’t waive it for you.
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GETTING HELP•Don’t spin your wheels, ask for help!•Tons of office hours• Statistics Aid Centre in New College: Wetmore Hall 68A
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WHAT TO DO BY 23:59 SUNDAY, SEPT. 20
•Read the course syllabus and course schedule.• Log in to the UofT Learning Portal to access the course webpage•Complete the week 1 lecture preparation and online quizzes.
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• In Canada 701 people (18+) surveyed with a margin of error 3.7%
• In U.S. 1,002 people (18+) surveyed with a margin of error 3.5%
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NEXT CLASS …
•Wednesday 4-5•The room location is HS610•Optional attendance• I will be there to answer any questions about the course content/flow (i.e. where to find stuff, what to do) …