SSPPIIICCCEE ESS ...Arrivals at Guntur chilli market were reported more than 1 lakh bags a day (1...

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Technical Recommendations

Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation

Pepper NCDEX Apr-12 Trading Range 42800 – 46470

Jeera NCDEX Apr-12 Buy above 13360 TP 13560/13780 SL 13000

TMC NCDEX Apr-12 Trading Range 4200 – 4470

Chilli NCDEX Apr-12 Buy in the range 5640-5610 TP 5855/5970

SL 5480

Cardamom MCX Apr-12 Trading Range - 1170 – 1320

A w e e k l y f u n d a m e n t a l a n d t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t o n s p i c e s 17 March 2012

SSSPPPIIICCCEEESSS WWWEEEEEEKKKLLLYYY

_____________________________________________________________________________________ KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

A w e e k l y f u n d a m e n t a l a n d t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t o n s p i c e s


Pepper

Review

Pepper prices continued bullish trend during last week on cues from prevailing supply crunch across the spot markets.

Futures started the week on negative note continuing the corrections started in the of previous week. However, later on

prices turned bullish due to supply shortage at terminal market. According to trade sources, traders are directly buying

from growers which is creating tight supply situation across the spot markets. Trend in global pepper market also

remained firm amid tight supply form Vietnam. Therefore, on cues from prevailing fundamentals futures prices also

remain firm making a new all time high everyday and ended the week on higher note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 41850 43700 39920 43360 4.28 41513 44.47 7119 17.92May-12 41930 44305 40240 43885 4.70 4566 36.54 1829 31.02Jun-12 41900 44530 40300 44110 5.20 474 -35.16 295 5.73

Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday

Outlook

Pepper prices are expected to continue the bullish trend on cues from strong demand amid tight supply situation.

According to trade sources, traders and growers both are holding back their stock due to continuous rise In prices.

Overall trend in global pepper market is also remaining firm as supply from all the major countries are remaining thin

in anticipation of further rise in prices. However, India parity in international market is at $8400-8800 per MT which

much higher than any other origin. Thus, higher Indian quotes might affect exports demand for Indian pepper limiting

huge gains.

Factors to watch out

Average daily prices at spot market of Kochi increased to `38,400 and `40,400 per quintal for Ungarbled and MG-1

grade respectively

In February 2012, Brazil exported 1,679 mt of pepper valued at $11.8 million. the export was significantly lower

when compared to the export in February 2011 and a continuous decrease from exports in the previous months.

this reflected that current stock in brazil is very thin

-120

-20

80

180

280

380

480

580

680Pepper Spread : May - Apr

Contango




35000

37000

39000

41000

43000

45000

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000PVO Analysis - Pepper

Open Interest Volume Price

Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 1974 tonnes as on March 15 , 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of pepper in New York market remained steady to $7.83 per kg during

the week ended March 9 , 2011 but quoted higher against $5.51 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point

Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 37173 38547 40953 43360 44733 46107 48513May-12 37250 38745 41315 43885 45380 46875 49445Jun-12 37200 38750 41430 44110 45660 47210 49890

NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The NCDEX Pepper April contract prices, volumes and

open interest have increased. It is a good indication that

market is attracting larger numbers of traders willing to

open positions from the long side and hold them. Traders

are more confident that prices will continue to climb in

favor of a working long.

Technical

http://www.peppertrade.com.br/WPB1112.pdf

http://www.peppertrade.com.br/WPB1112.pdf




Jeera

Review

Jeera prices traded continued the bearish trend amid poor domestic demand during the week ended on Mar. 17th.

Futures started the week on negative note extending previous week’s corrections. Rising arrivals amid peak arrival

season along with subdued domestic and export demand further added to the down side. However, prices took smart

recovery on short covering during the week but failed to sustain the gains. Rise in arrivals of fresh crop pulled down the

prices at both spot and futures front. Therefore, on cues from spot activity futures prices ended the week on negative

note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 13580 13580 12877.5 13157.5 -2.97 43167 51.40 17979 16.96May-12 13870 13870 13162.5 13457.5 -2.83 9126 75.43 6366 52.88Jun-12 14100 14100 13455 13677.5 -4.00 2033 384.00 480 87.00


Outlook

Jeera prices are projected to remain under pressure on cues from prevailing subdued spot market activities. According

to trade sources, bulk buyers and stockiest are staying away from market in anticipation of further fall in prices.

However, a small recovery during the week can be seen at lower levels as market is in oversold zone, but this recovery

might remain short live due to prevailing weak fundamentals.


Arrivals at spot market of Unjha are hovering in the range of 26000-28000 bags (1 bag= 60 Kg.); while traded

quantity is remaining 20000-22000 bags

Production is estimates around 40-45 lakh bags against 28-30 lakh bags last year which might further add t the

down side

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 6026 tonnes as on March 15, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of jeera in New York market declined to $3.79 per kg during the week

ended march 9th, 2011 however, against $3.84 per kg in the same period last year

200

250

300

350

Jeera Spread : May - Apr

Contango




12800

13000

13200

13400

13600

13800

14000

14200

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

PVO Analysis - Jeera


Pivot Point


NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The NCDEX jeera April contract prices have decline

while volumes and open interest have increased. It

indicates that new money is coming into the market,

showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will

prove out a continuation of a downtrend.

Technical




Turmeric

Review

NCDEX turmeric prices continued the downtrend on back of huge arrivals witnessed at domestic markets across the

countries. From starting of the week prices traded down in continuation of bearish trend. Poor buying interest from

both bulk buyers and exporters kept prices under pressure. However, later on futures took smart recovery on fresh

buying from local masla buyers. Nonetheless, overall trend remained weak as farmers increased supply in lieu of higher

prices which reflected in futures prices also. Huge supply across the spot market pulled down the prices. Therefore, on

cues from spot market activities futures prices traded down and ended the week on bearish note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 4424 4444 4204 4258 -4.66 59970 23.92 22460 1.61May-12 4534 4534 4250 4308 -5.32 24660 85.07 14150 35.99Jun-12 4504 4510 4252 4378 -4.49 4760 143.48 4915 26.19


Outlook

Turmeric prices are expected trade lower on rising arrivals across the spot markets. According to trade sources, though

some traders have received fresh orders but supply is so huge at market that might outweigh the impact of fresh buying

from north Indian buyers. Bumper crop production is weighing on market sentiments keeping prices under pressure.

Any rise in prices might result in increase in supply dragging down the prices.


As per trade sources, daily arrivals at spot market of Erode increased to 20,000 bags while selling remained 50-60%

of total arrivals (1bag=70Kg.)

Exporters have not received fresh orders now and they are expecting March 10th they will get order till then they are

not interested in bulk buying

Turmeric production estimates from current year are around 82 lakh bags against 65-68 lakh bags last year


-60

-40

-20

0

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40

60

80

100

Turmeric Spread : May - Apr

Contango




4100

4300

4500

4700

4900

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000 PVO Analysis - Turmeric


As per Spices Board data, international price of Turmeric in New York market remained unchanged to $5.62 per kg

during the week ended March 9th, 2011 lower from $5.29 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The NCDEX Turmeric April contract prices have

declined while volumes and open interest have

declined. It indicates that new money is coming into

the market, showing aggressive new short selling.

This scenario will prove out a continuation of a

downtrend or bearish trend.

Technical




Chilli

Review Chilli prices continued the bearish trend for 2nd consecutive week amid poor demand at domestic front. Futures started

the week on lower note on extended losses. However, later on prices reversed the trend and witnessed smart recovery

on lower level buying but failed to sustain the gains. Huge arrivals of fresh crop along with poor export demand further

added to the down side. Therefore, on cues from futures prices traded down and closed on negative note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 5888 5888 5480 5726 -1.95 18630 32.60 6440 25.17Jun-12 6200 6248 5892 6116 -2.49 3190 47.34 2045 37.25


Outlook

Chilli prices are expected to trade on a mixed note on cues from sluggish spot market activity. Poor export demand from

for Indian chilli is likely to have negative impact on prices. However, recent decline in arrivals might support the prices

to recover during the week. Demand from domestic buyers in small amount might also add to the prices.


Arrivals at Guntur chilli market were reported more than 1 lakh bags a day (1 bag=40Kg.)

As per data released by Spices board, during Apr-Dec, 2011 export of chilli was around 1,53,500 tones down by 19

% Y/Y

Prevailing poor export demand amid pesticide residue in Indian chilli also indicates that chilli export for 2011-12

are likely to remain lower

Chilli production estimates for this season is estimated around 12.5-13 lakh tonnes v/s 10.5- 11 lakh tones last year


As per Spices Board data, international price of chilli in New York market declined to $3.20 per kg during the week

ended March 9th, 2011 down against $3.64 per kg quoted in the same period last year

380

400

420

440

460

480

500Chilli spread : Jun - Apr

Contango




5400

5600

5800

6000

6200

6400

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000PVO Analysis - Chilli


Pivot Point

Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 5100 5290 5508 5726 5916 6106 6324Jun-12 5567 5729 5923 6116 6279 6441 6635

NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The NCDEX chilli April contract prices have declined

while volumes and open interest have declined. It

indicates that trend is still bearish but as compared to

previous week fall is limited. Therefore, a small recovery

can be expected in coming days at lower levels.

Technical

A strong break out

through the

deciding channel

in chilli

continuation chart

keeps the prices in

positive territory.

Initial bias is

remains neutral

this week and

expected to

continue the rally

towards the next

resistance of 5855

then 5970 levels,

which is 38.2 &

50% Fibonacci

levels for its

previous fall, starts

from 6464 to

5480. However, incase of any fall on the downside will holds at 5610 levels and bring some buying pressure for the

same. Weekly momentum indicator RSI-14 period trading at 0.50 levels by supporting our bullish view, an upside

crossover from the Mov Avg in MACD is also another aspect for taking bullish view in coming sessions.




Cardamom

Review

Cardamom futures resumed bullish trend during the week ended on March 17th after witnessing corrections on profit

booking. From starting of the week futures traded higher on follow though buying. Good demand at domestic as well as

export front pushed the prices on higher note. Though prices witnessed small corrections during the week but overall

positive trend remained intact which was also reflected in higher export ate offered by exporters. Thus, on cues from

spot activity futures prices traded up and ended on positive note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 1015 1178.2 1008.9 1178.2 16.77 62072 84.79 7785 29.32May-12 1070.7 1242.8 1065 1242.8 17.66 11988 92.76 1529 46.60Jun-12 1114.9 1121.2 1078 1100 17.75 1114 139.23 398 54.02


Outlook Cardamom futures are expected to continue the bullish trend on strong domestic and export demand. Heavy buying

from local buyers and exporters as harvesting season is coming to an end is supporting prices at spot front. However,

prices might take decent corrections on profit booking during the days, but these corrections are expected to create

further buying opportunity in near term. According to traders, prevailing dryer weather in major growing regions of

Kerala are creating concern for next season crop and pushing prices on higher side.


Arrivals Daily auction has declined to 40-55 tonnes while average prices hovered in the range of Rs. 700-840 per

Kg.

According to data released by Spices board, cardamom exports during Apr-Dec, 2011 were up by 389% to 3450

tons against same period in last year

Total arrivals during the current season from August 1, 2011 to March 11, 2012 was at 14,264 tonnes and the sales

at 13,848 tonnes as against 7,684 tonnes of arrivals and 7,499 tonnes sales in the same period last year

MCX warehouse stocks of Cardamom as on March 15, 2011 were 17 tonnes

40

45

50

55

60

65

70Cardamom Spread : May - Apr

Contango




900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

20000PVO Analysis - Cardamom


As per Spices Board data, international price of Cardamom in Saudi Arabia market improved to $18.42 per kg

during the week ended February 10, 2011; however, it was lower than $29.88 per kg quoted in the same period

last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The MCX cardamom March contract prices, volumes

and open interest have increased. It indicates that

Market is attracting larger numbers of traders

willing to open positions from the long side and

hold them. Traders are more confident that prices

will continue to climb in favor of a working long.

Technical




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SSPPIIICCCEE ESS ...Arrivals at Guntur chilli market were reported more than 1 lakh bags a day (1...

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