Anita Rubin:

WHEEL, ARROW OR SPIRAL?

Systems Thinking in Futures StudiesTUTU-3 Intensive Course 2010

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The Hierarchical Nature of Reality

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Systems Thinking is ...

…a way to understand phenomena and events, their characteristics and the relationships between them as one entity;

…a family of methods/methodology which creates a flexible and manifold tool to help human problem-solving in practice.

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Cyclic (circular) time

April JulyJan Oct Jan

warm

cool

hot

cold

Cyclical events

time

• Is based on the alternation of night and day / periodic system of

seasons;

• distinctive to societies before industrialisation and to some primitive societies;

• iterative and rhythmic by nature;

• slow pace of change;• striving for

conserving things the same

spring

summer

winter

fall

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Linear time

• Typical to industrialised (Western) countries;

• Time is understood as a direction from somewhere to somewhere else, the present at the top of development ;

• Change is understood as the prerequisite for development;

• Time is seen as irreversible and uni-directional

• The future is open, and therefore

• Society and the human being are open and dynamic to face the futures and their possibilities.

time

present

course of development

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Events and processes advance at different pace in different places.

compares to development (evolution); is based on events and processes which

proceed at different speed in different places;

Social / cultural time

cultures

time

developmental phenomenon

is relative by nature; is culture-specific, and relates to people´s intepretation of their

own culture and history.

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Psychological time

In relation to a specific situation, individual people experience, explain and understand the course of the same, measurable time in a different way.

Necessary to differentiate the past from the future.

By nature, time is

relative,

situational, and

tilannesidonnaista ja

dependent on expectations, hopes, fears, emotions, events, memories, etc.

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Based on the idea that everything subordinates to physical / natural laws and therefore is measurable by instruments (clocks, watches; scales, mathematical tools, etc.)

Is absolute, simple, and unambiquous.

All the material for predicting the future already exists – we just have to learn to know how to measure it (Isaac Newton).

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Physical, thermodynamical time

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• Stephen Hawking

• conceptual measure for explaning cosmical facts;

• no beginning, or end, or direction, or order of things;

• no difference between the past, the present and the future;

• no causality;

• the time of complex systems;

• offers explanation to supernatural and un-explanatory experiences and phenomena?

Imaginary time

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Spiral time

The course of development follows in many ways the Hegelian theory of thesis –antithesis – synthesis, thus forms a spiral instead of the linear or cyclical model.

Thesis: individualization & privatizationAntithesis: the European heritage of the sense of community; so-called neo-communalitySynthesis: new models of doing things together empowerment, recruiting by eg. social media to participate and be active; co-productivity

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Definitions of a System

A System is…

… a limited number of factors (actors, actions, interactions) between which there are continuous tensions and connections to distinguish them as separate wholes;

…an organism which functions according to laws and rules of its own. The organism is composed of smaller organisms, but it cannot be directly understood by merely analysing its sub-organisms.

… a group of characteristics which form a whole and the parts of which are related with each other in a definable way.

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• Universal principles of organisation apply to all systems (physical, chemical, biological, social)

• Mechanistic world view: Full understading of any phenomenon can be achieved by reducing it to its basic components and analysing those parts. Universal anwers can be achieved this way.

• Systemic world view: Phenomena are more than their parts. Universal answers can only be achieved by exceeding the material basis and concentrating on the abstract characteristics of the system.

Principles of systems thinking

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The Hierarchy of a System

• To be eligible for being defined as a system, a being has to have at least two parts which are interconnected.

• The parts of a system form sub-systems (i.e. a human being blood circulation blood cells genes, etc.) The top system is called super-system. The super-system is always more abstract and more general by nature than its sub-systems

• As such, a system is always more than a mere sum of its parts, or sub-systems.

• The higher in hierarchy a system functions, the more abstract and general it is by nature (i.e. a human being family community municipality state, etc.)

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The Emergent Nature of a System

A system receives energy, matter and/or information (input) and produces other kind of energy, matter, and/or information back to its environment (output). The third law of thermodynamics Specialised energy The law of entropy

The formation of a system requires processes between • its parts and sub-systems; • the system and its environment

(open systems).

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Negative feedback• necessary for the self-direction and

learning ability of the system; • guides the system to keep on the right

track.

Positive feedback• result, product, i.e. output• the sum of avoided negative alternatives.

The Role of Feedback in Open Systems

.../...

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In keeping up the economy of the open system, the crucial process is regulation, homeostacy.

• the ability of a system to maintain its inner condition;

• takes place by eliminating redundant fluctuation and the disturbing influence

of external stimulae or noise.

Homeostacy

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Complex Systems

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To understand a system…

…focus has to be turned on

• the technical form of information output (i.e., how it is transmitted and what symbols are used);

• the accuracy of information (i.e. how well the symbols describe the acitivities of the system);

• how effective the information is (i.e., how that information influences the environment of the system and how the output process is necessary for the survival and managing of the system).

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A Complex System

A system, state, or whole can be defined as complex, if...

• it is open,• it has a two-way information flow;• is composed of different, but intertwined parts

(elements, incidents, chains of events, impacts, etc.)

• is indistinct,• and is laborious to analyse or solve.

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Critical information

Inflowing information which grows in amount or quality and for which the system is not properly prepared is called critical information.

The more critical information is flowing into the system, the more unstable it becomes and the closer it approximates to a chaotic state.

The system’s ability to self-regulation determines the level of its order.

i.e. The Universe is not merely a combination of phenomena acting on their own, separate laws, but a whole of intermediating complex systems.

(Checkland 1985)

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Natural and Human Systems

2. Human systems have either been consciously built, or they have emerged as a result of human actions.

• Rational material systems (= planned by people) (i.e. the distribution network of electricity in a city)

• Planned abstract systems (= human-made conceptual wholes) (i.e. mathematics, philosophy, education system, etc.)

• Operational human systems (= the systems which have been created in order to carry out some purpose or to reach a goal (i.e. a choir, or political parties)

3. Transcendental systems (of which we cannot know anything)

1. Natural systems form the Nature as we know it.

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When the amount of information grows in a system, its ability to provide energy in order to deal with the new / growing information and accomplish as before becomes tested:

→ uncertainty and unpredictability grow;

→ the degree of freedom builds up;

→ the possibility of chaos multiplies;

→ and resistance for change increases.

The information which starts the change (pushes the system off its normal stability) is called critical information.

The Consequences of System Change

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Self-regulation and fluctuation

New energy or information into human systems causes fluctuation in its internal processes.

At the same time the system keeps up movement towards its development (= fluctuation) with the help of cumulative and positive feedback.

Tendency to self-regulation (to achieve balance by using amendatory or negative feedback.

Tendency towards more and more specific and diverse state.

Dissonance?

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Evolutionary development• The two antagonistic tendencies – to achieve and maintain

balance and to promote development – increases the system’s movement towards a critical state before chaos.

• Finally it either dissolves (=chaos) or moves onto a higher and more complex level, where both the self-regulative and attuning processes start again.

• On this new level the system is more complex and manifold than before in both its construction and actions.

NORMAL DEVELOPMENT

TRUE DEVELOPMENT (normal again)Level of complexity

Time

APPROACHING CHAOS (i.e. development becomes unpredictable

Increasing inflow of energy/information/matter Qualitative jump PREDICTED

DEVELOPMENT

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A Change in a System

When the level of information in a system grows, new alternative paths to the future emerge.

The possibilities to maintain order, control the flow of information, manage the system with old methods weaken, when the conditions in the system change.

When the amount of new, inflowing information (energy, matter) reaches a critical point, the systems moves towards a chaotic state.

Human-made systems are always moving towards greater complexity.

How to control change?

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1) The growth of information change of the grade of

order in the system

2) Change in the amount / model of behavour of actors:

– an actor leaves;

– new actor/actors appear;

– the chain of operations break .

3) A change in the purpose / meaning of the system

Causes of change

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More information /

energy

SYSTEM

Possibilities to maintain and create order

diminish

Unpredictable change and

chaos

Degrees of freedom increase

The complexity of the system increases. What

are the alternative futures of such system?

More influential

actors

CHANGE IN SYSTEMGrowth of energy /

information

Alternative future developments

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mortality rate

population

annual birthsannual deaths

birth rate nutrition (per person)

cultivated field area

demanded nutrition (per person) nutrition

capital on agriculture

industrial production

pollution

investments industrial capital

investment readiness

depreciations

the average duration of capital

(+)

(+)

(-)

(-)(-)

(-)

MODELING

E.g. the world model of the Club of Rome in”Limits to growth”(Meadows et al., 1972)

Modeling

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The SSM helps to establish a connection between the visions of the preferred future and organisational self-understanding based on information gathered from the present situation. The knowledge gained through this process is then used to build a change process which helps in preparing for different possible futures.

The organisation under study is understood and described as a systemic whole -- a system which has recognisable borders, actors, factors, sub-systems, and interactions between them.

Soft Systems Thinking (SSM)

Peter Checkland 1985

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1. The world as we

perceive it,

2. produces…

3. thoughts and models of action…

5. as tools in Methodology M to understand the world.

4. which are being used…

© Auli Keskinen

The World as a Systemic Image

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V = (Core)Vision Meaning, idea, goals

M = Mission Strategies, actions, methods

A = Actors)Actors, groups, networks, users, consumers, customers, models of action, rules, laws, communication

R = ConstructionComponents, techniques, borders, division of work, environment, inner & outer contacs

Describing a system with VMAR-analysis

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1. Problem situation (un-structured)

3. Core concepts of meaningful systems

2. Problem situation (verbalized)

4a. Formal systems model

4b. Other systems thinking

4. Conceptual models

TRUE WORLD

SYSTEMS THINKING

5. Comparison of phases 2-4

6. Possible, desirable changes

7. Action to solve the problem situation

The world as a systemic model

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In the SSM process a connection between organisation´s strategic target setting, vision creation, information about the present and self-understanding is constructed.

The information gained in the process will be used in creating an insight on the change processes which are needed in order to make the best possible future become reality.

The SSM process also helps the organisation in getting prepared for different possible futures.

The development processes between the systemic cultural self-understanding and the actors are especially emphasized.

The course and activities of SSM

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Naming of the problem situation

(future-related)

History

Tasks, matters

Description of the situation as a culture:• Analysis of influencing the

activities• Analysis of information flow• Analysis of the“social system”• Analysis of the “political

system”

Present activities as they officially are

Futures model (how things

should be, i.e. vision)

Naming of the possible change

agents

comparison

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.Differences between true situation and the models

Naming of the need of changes:· systemically desirable· culturally reachable

Analysis of the organisational culture

Activities to make the

change happen step

by step

Analysis of activities with CATWOE

Present activities as they really are

comparison

The course and activities of SSM

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CATWOE is

• A process to create core concept and core vision;

• A means to define the sub-systems, systemic processe, interaction between the systems and sub-systems, and the roles of actors who influence its activities;

• A tool to describe the desirable future state as the model with which the true present situation can then be compared.

(Checkland & Scholes 1999)

The principles of CATWOE

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Customer (whose choices and actions are influenced by the process)

Actors (who make the things happen)

Transformation process (the real chain of actions which changes the inflowing resources to a product.)

Worldview (and values)

Owners (the actors who can prevent or stop the change.)

Environmental constraints (the limits and factors in social environment which do not change or cannot be influenced by the process)

The factors of CATWOE

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The ACTVOD process

A method which connects SSM and scenario methods (futures table method)

Actors (who make the things happen) Customers (whose choices and actions are influenced by the process) Transformation process (the real chain of actions which take change forward.) Values Obstacles (which decelerate development.) Drivers (which promote the change.)

The method is carried out by placing the ACTVOD variables in a futures table and then choosing four to six (or even more) alternative futures states to each variables. The table enables several alternative futures images to be created (see Futures Table method for details)

(Hietanen, Kaivo-oja, Lauttamäki & Nurmi 2006)

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i Presents in verbal form the general present actions and meaning of the system (organisation)

i Is created to answer the following questions:

”What should be done?” (=x) ”How should it be done?” (=y) ”Why is it done?” (=z)

The core concept is presented in the form”The meaning of the system is to do x by using y in order to reach z.”

Core concept

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ACTVOD-table

Actors

Customers

Transformation processes

Values

Obstacles

Drivers for change

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In SSM methodology work (and in futures studies) the vision is

• the active affect in the future, created by a person, group, organisation or other actor;

• insightful and crucial by nature;

• justifiable from the point of view of actor´s existance and values;

• created from the possible and desirable future state(s) and actions;

• the starting point of a new concept to deal with the future challenges,

• and the actualization of which requires active work and change which takes place through learning new things.

…

Vision

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In addition to the previous characteristics, the core vision

i describes the system as it could be in the future (= target state);

i presents the objective of learning and interest in the larger and more general vision (= affect).

The meaning of the core vision is to motivate the actors to commit themselves with their choices, decisions and deeds to the tasks and processes which are necessary in order to reach the desirable future

Core vision

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1. A directive in which the necessary activities and changes to direct the present situation towards the state given by the vision are chronologically stated.

2. A task which defines the general meaning of the commonly-shared and future-oriented operations. At the same time, a clarification of the changes, choices and things which are necessary in order to reach the goal stated in the vision.

Mission

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