Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1
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The Role of Statisticians and Statistical Science SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP Global Food Security: Achieving food security in the face of climate change Dr Bronwyn Harch| Deputy Director 7 th September, 2012
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Statistical Society of Australia Webinar - Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change - Bronwyn Harch Sep 7, 201
Transcript of Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1
The Role of Statisticians and Statistical Science
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP
Global Food Security: Achieving food security in the face of climate change
Dr Bronwyn Harch| Deputy Director
7th September, 2012
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social & economic access to sufficient, safe & nutritious food to meet their dietary needs & food preferences for an active & healthy life. United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 2
Key Challenges
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 3
Growing from 7 billion people today to 9 billion by 2050
1 in 6 undernourished 1.5 billion overweight
1.4 billion live on <USD$1.25 / day
1.5 billion depend on degrading land
1.3 billion tonnes of food wasted
each year
7.5 billion USD lost to extreme weather in 2010
200+ million more hungry after 2007/8 price spikes
12 million ha of additional agricultural land degraded/year
Beddington et al. 2011 available at www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission
Key Elements to Food Insecurity
Converging threats from climate change, population growth & unsustainable resource use
Resource competition, land degradation & greenhouse gas emissions
Food price volatility & conflicts associated with food shortages
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 4
Ph
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Ric
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Inst
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IRR
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Commission on Sustainable Agriculture & Climate Change
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 5
• Established by the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
• Program on Climate Change, Agriculture & Food Security (CCAFS) with support from the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development (GDPRD)
• 13 eminent natural and social scientists from around the world
• Evidence-based policy recommendations: A ‘road map’ for policy makers Released in November 2011
• Full Report released 28th March 2012
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission/
Major Findings
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 6
Ph
oto
: In
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Ric
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Inst
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IRR
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Business as usual will not bring food security & environmental sustainability
Need to simultaneously address global agriculture within the context of the food system & climate change
The interconnected nature of these challenges demands an integrated management approach
The world’s poor are less resilient
Seven Recommendations
1. Integrate food security & sustainable agriculture into global & national policies
2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture & food systems in the next decade
3. Target populations & sectors most vulnerable to climate change & food insecurity
4. Reshape food access & consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met & foster sustainable eating habits worldwide
5. Reduce loss & waste in food systems – particularly from infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution & household habits
6. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions & other negative environmental impacts
7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human & ecological dimensions
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 7
Key insights related to Australia’s interest in food security
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 8
• Australia has a high level of food security
o export ~60% of food production
o produce 1% of world’s food; 3% of traded food
• Share same health/diet issues with higher income countries
• Land and water are increasingly contested
o for food, fibre, fuel and carbon sinks
• Droughts and floods constrain agricultural outputs
• Strong population growth is fuelling community debate on “sustainability”
• National policy related developments and dialogue
• International engagement around food security
Australia’s interests in food security
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 9
DAFF 2012. FOODmap. An analysis of the Australian food supply chain
Action in needed on three fronts
1) reducing demand
2) sustaining existing productivity
3) filling the production gap
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 10
Food Demand Scenarios 1960 to 2050
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Plus 6 or 12 % diversion to biofuels
Plus 20 % wastage loss in value chain
9B people + consumption increase in developing countries
9B people
8B people , no consumption increae
A ‘Mega-wedge’ of Food Demand
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 12
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Filling the Production
Demand
Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 13
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Filling the Production
Demand
Avoiding losses of
productive capacity
Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 14
Filling the Production
Demand
Avoiding losses of
productive capacity
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Reducing the
Demand
Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge ?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 15
Reducing the demand trajectory
• Reduce waste along the food value chain
• Reducing over-consumption in human diets
• Rebalancing livestock component of future diets
• Develop “smart biofuel” policies & technologies
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Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 16
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Avoiding losses of productive capacity • Maintaining pest & disease resistance
& biosecurity
• Avoiding further soil & water degradation
• Climate change mitigation without loss of food security
• Adapting to unavoidable climate change
Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 17
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Filling the production shortfall
• Net expansion of the land footprint
• Net expansion of irrigation footprint
• Expanding aquaculture based production
• Increasing production intensity
• Closing yield gaps (including raising eco-efficiency)
• Raising yield ceilings through new technologies
Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 19
Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?
Translation...
Agri-environmental stewardship
Carbon storage
Productivity
Greenhouse gas abatement
Profitability
Livelihood
Agri-environmental stewardship
Carbon storage Productivity
Greenhouse gas abatement
Profitability Livelihood
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 22
Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?
Contribution of statisticians & statistical science?
◦ innovation ◦ partnerships ◦ knowledge services
What is Agri-Environmental Informatics?
Enhancing * environmental
accounting
* landscape stewardship
* environmental services
* community well-being
* competitive edge
Modelling of Key Processes
Next Generation
Data Acquisition
Technologies
Enabling Risk Informed Decision Making
Design, Integration & Synthesis of
Observational Data
Reflections: innovation, partnerships knowledge services
Deep engagement with stakeholders
adoption and impact
Strong disciplinary science across a range of disciplines
Transdisciplinary integrators and modellers
space, time
competing objectives
High level visualisation and communication technologies
space, time
risk profiles
uncertainty A mosaic of native ecosystems, plantations, and agriculture on Kangaroo Island, SA.
Thank you Sustainable Agriculture Flagship Dr Bronwyn Harch Deputy Director
t +61 7 3833 5631 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/SAF
