Lecture 07Singapore & Globalisation

Strategy & Defence

Introduction

• Singapore’s history driven as much by cycles of global conflict as by cycles of trade

• Traditional Story:- As an independent Nation-State, “no one will

defend us if we do not defend ourselves!”• Longue Duree version:- Singapore often defended as part of a larger

entity, always dependent on global trends

Linear Progression

How present-day Singapore came about

1819-

1824

1945 1963 1965

My nation

British Possession

Japanese Possession

Malaysian State

Independent city-state

Cycles of Conflict

• Pax Sinica:

- Chinese dynastic cycles & rise and fall of dominant powers in maritime SE Asia

• European powers:- Portuguese-Spanish global empires- Dutch global maritime dominance- Pax Britannica • Pax Americana

Examine Claims

• Military contest determines economic power (?)

- Conflict drives outcomes apart from trade

• Singapore still needs to be defended as part of a greater whole

- Borrowing and balancing power

Scope

• Historical look at how global and regional conflict drove our history and fate

• 14th century Temasek and present-day Singapore exceptions?

• Ponder: Power and trade cycles: A chicken and egg situation?

Conflict Driven History

Pax Sinica &

Maritime SE Asia

Srivijaya Empire

• Tang Dynasty overthrew Sui Dynasty

- Tributary relations with “barbarian” states

- Palembang: Gained “sole dealership” of Tang China goods in SE Asia

• Built up military power to prevent rivals from emerging (e.g. Melayu)

• Srivijaya dominated maritime SE Asia• Tang overthrown, rise of Sung

- New trade policies eroded Srivijaya’s power• Conquered by Singhasari

Majapahit-Siamese Domination

• Majapahit absorbed much of Srivijaya• Prince of Palembang attempts to revive

Srivijaya. Fails and escapes to “border” zone with Sukothai (Temasek)

• Yuan China overthrows Sung, continues open trade policies

• Temasek thrives, protected by rare fortifications • Temasek king flees to Melaka after invasion

Rise of Melaka

• Ming overthrew Yuan Dynasty, imposed official monopoly over trade

• Zheng He’s mighty fleet offers Parameswara/Iskandar Shah Chinese protection

• Melaka thrived and built an empire

• Dominated trade in maritime SE Asia for a century

Conflict Driven History

European Empires

&

Maritime SE Asia

Portuguese Melaka4-Way Tussle

• Conquered Melaka in 1511

• Insufficient power to destroy Johor Sultanate (successor to Melaka Sultanate)

• Rise of Aceh

• Arrival of Dutch

• 4-Way tussle made Singapore militarily strategic: A zone of conflict

Dutch Monopoly of SE Asian Trade

• Monopoly imposed by force- Raiding Portuguese shipping- Conquered Portuguese Melaka and Ternate.

Expelled Portuguese from region- Johor Sultanate weakened by rebellions, raids,

Bugis and Dutch domination- Aceh marginalised by Dutch power - British excluded by Dutch power- Shifted trade route to Sunda Straits

Decline of Dutch

• Napoleonic Wars (1789-1815): France conquers Dutch homeland

• Dutch crown asked British to protect colonies from French

• Raffles and the invasion of Java (1811)• French defeated in 1815. London returns

colonies to Dutch• Raffles unhappy. Plot to end Dutch

monopoly

Rise of Colonial Singapore

• Free Trade shifted trade route from Sunda back to Melaka Straits BUT…

• Dutch respect British power, asked for diplomatic settlement

• Singapore not safe until 1824 Anglo-Dutch treaty ended Dutch monopoly

• Britannia ruled the Waves:

- 2 power standard

Whosever commands the sea commands the trade; whosever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently, the world itself.

Sir Walter Raleigh (1552-1618)

British Decline

• British Empire built global coalitions to defeat successive challengers: Russia, Germany, Japan

• Singapore suffered but prevailed because it belonged to the winning coalition

• British power defeated Malayan Emergency and Indonesian Konfrontasi

• Pax Britannica gave way to Cold War and Pax Americana

Rise of USA

• Singapore’s security depended on US power and Indonesian policies. SAF was too weak in 1960s-1970s

• US victory over Japan in WW2• US intervention in Vietnam War • US victory over USSR in Cold War • General Suharto replaces President

Sukarno (1965-67). ASEAN replaces Konfrontasi

Vietnam War

• US military in Vietnam 1963-1973“America's action [in Vietnam] enabled non-communist

Southeast Asia to put their own houses in order. By 1975, they were in better shape to stand up to the communists. Had there been no US intervention, the will of these countries to resist them would have melted and Southeast Asia would most likely have gone communist. The prosperous emerging market economies of ASEAN were nurtured during the Vietnam War years."

Lee Kuan Yew

From Third World to First

President Suharto’s Role

"He gave Indonesia progress and development. He educated the population. He built roads and infrastructure. And from Sukarno's konfrontasi and other foreign policy excesses, he stabilised international relations, cooperated in ASEAN and made ASEAN more successful than SARC in South Asia. And today, we have a stable Southeast Asia."

Lee Kuan Yew, 2008

Has Singapore Transcended such Cycles?

• “No one will defend us if we do not…”

• The 3rd Generation Singapore Armed Forces (SAF): Knockout Blow in Round 1!

“The mission of MINDEF and the Singapore Armed Forces is to enhance Singapore's peace and security through deterrence and diplomacy, and should these fail, to secure a swift and decisive victory over the aggressor.”

Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) as of 2010

Far cry from Temasek vs Majapahit and Sukothai/Ayuthia

Leopard 2 MBTs

What Other Strengths?

• Advanced weaponry• High technology• Stable government able and willing to spend on

defence: 6% of GDP? 1/3 of budget, even during 1997 Financial crisis

• Military budget (2009): Singapore outspends Malaysia and Indonesia combined!

• National Service (NS), Total Defence (TD)• Mobilises in 6 hours, concentrated in small area Fast moving, hard-hitting SAF

“Singaporeans must know that we should never take our nation’s peace and stability for granted, and that we ourselves must be responsible for our own defence. Without security as a strong foundation, we cannot develop and progress as a nation…”

“Anyone who may be tempted to think that our small island will be an easy target – like it was in 1942 – must be left in no doubt about the resolve of Singaporeans and our commitment to defend our nation, and that the Singapore Armed Forces can and will repel any aggressor and defend Singapore.”

Defence Minister Teo Chee Hean

Severe Limitations

• Low reserves

• No combat experience

• Import-dependent

• Easy to blockade

• No Strategic Depth

Low stamina

Larger countries can choose to fight slow and steady war

Defending Temasek

• Independent entity defended primarily by determined local forces?

- Heavy investment: Temasek’s defence walls were rare for its time

- Situated in between two much larger neighbours with greater stamina

• Deterrence and Diplomacy

- Wang Dayuan’s account of a battle

Siamese Attack on Dan-Ma-Xi

Colonial Singapore and the Singapore Strategy:• Hold out until “big brother” can intervene effectively on your behalf• Not local OR but local AND/OR imperial defenceNOTE: Only Temasek and present-day Singapore controlled own foreign policy

SAF’s Motto

“The mission of MINDEF and the Singapore Armed Forces is to enhance Singapore's peace and security through deterrence and diplomacy, and should these fail, to secure a swift and decisive victory over the aggressor.”

• Going it alone even if no help coming• Doing your best to ensure help will come• Enduring the worst until help eventually comes• Diplomacy also provides deterrence

Changi Naval Base

Pax Americana

"You can take Japan, Korea, Asean, and even include Taiwan and India, but you cannot balance China. It is too big. Only with the US and its superior technology can you balance China”

Lee Kuan Yew, 2011

Favourable Balance of Power

“In terms of its foreign policy, Singapore’s strategy has been to always cultivate ‘a maximum of friends’ and ensure ‘a minimum of enemies’, as Rajaratnam once put it. From among those friends, Singapore would need to always have ‘overwhelming power on our side’, in the words of Singapore’s founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew…”

Emrys Chew pp.20-21

Myths:Decisiveness of Local Resolve

• Our worst outcome (?): Japanese Occupation 1942-5. Failure to fight for ourselves

- No way “Singaporeans” and Malayans could take on Imperial Japan

- We won the war in the end because of favourable balance of power

• Fall of Temasek: Lack of local resolve?

But Wait…

• 4-Way Tussle for Singapore during Johor Sultanate years

- On the winning side- What did the Dutch and Johor Sultanate do after

beating the Portuguese and marginalising Aceh? Singapore, sleepy fishing village• WW2: We do not want to suffer like our parents

and grandparents did!

Verdict

• Still a small strategic place that needs to borrow and balance power for our security

• Might or might not prevail against regional challenges

• Same problem and solution throughout 700-year history:

- Local defence to see off minor attacks, hold off long enough for favourable balance of power to prevail

- Independent Foreign Policy: Deterrence and Diplomacy play for the same team

2010 Exam Question

“Did trade cycles or military conflict and power have a greater impact on Singapore’s historical development from the beginning of the 14th till the end of the 20th Century? Explain your answer”

How to Answer?

• You need:- Good knowledge of main global trends affecting

Singapore in The Longue Duree (Divide into 3-4 periods: Temasek, Melaka/Johor Sultanate era, Colonial era, post-colonial era)

- Did trade drive conflict or did conflict drive trade? Was economic or military power decisive

- Is this a chicken-and-egg game?

Conflict Apart from Trade

• E.g. World War Two, Cold War

• Singapore the military target, not the economic asset

• Sometimes easier to argue for trade, sometimes easier to argue for conflict, sometimes not clear?

• Read question carefully: Timeframe important

Conclusion

• Shifting power an indispensible part of our history in the Longue Duree

• Extremely relevant today• Local resolve and favourable balance of

power part of same solution to problems of small strategic places with low stamina

• Conflict is at least as important as trade in the development and fate of a Global-City State