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E.O. 12356: DECL:OADRTAGS: PGOV, PREL, CASC, PINS, CISUBJ: THE CHILEAN PLEBISCITE: SITREP EIGHT

GENERAL ASSESSMENT

1. (U) THINGS ARE NOT QUITE BACK TO NORMAL YET, BUTCHILEANS ARE GRADUALLY ABSORBING THE RESULTS OFWEDNESDAY'S PLEBISCITE AND THE NEW PHASE OF POLITICALMANEUVERING FOR THE TRANSITION HAS BEGUN. PRESIDENTPINOCHET REMOVED A MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY WHENHE SCOTCHED RUMORS OF HIS RESIGNATION AND ANNOUNCEDTHAT HE AND HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD REMAIN IN OFFICE INSTRICT ACCORD WITH THE CONSTITUTION ORDER. THERE WASSPONTANEOUS DANCING IN THE STREETS AS "NO" SUPPORTERSCELEBRATED THEIR VICTORY. AFTERNOON CONFRONTATIONSWITH THE CARABINEROS ATTEMPTING TO RESTRAIN THE HUGECROWDS DOWNTOWN FROM CONGREGATING AROUND KEYGOVERNMENT BUILDINGS WERE MARKED BY A NUMBER QFINCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE. MUCH TEAR GAS WAS EXPENDEDAND THE WATER CANNONS OPENED UP TO DISPERSEDEMONSTRATORS. ON THE WHOLE, HOWEVER, THE SECURITYFORCES EXERCISED CONSIDERABLE RESTRAINT GIVEN THETHOUSANDS QF PEOPLE INVOLVED. THIS IS A GOOD SIGNFOR THE PEACEFUL CONDUCT OF THE "NO" FORCES' BIGVICTORY CELEBRATION IN O'HIGGINS PARK TODAY.

ELECTION RETURNS

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2. (U) YESTERDAY, THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR (MININT)RELEASED THE FINAL TOTALS FOR ELECTION RETURNS WITHALL VOTING TABLES REPORTED. THE MININT RESULTSCLOSELY TRACK WITH THE STILL INCOMPLETE PARALLELCOUNT CONDUCTED BY THE "NO" COMMAND. TOTAL VOTES AND

PERCENTAGES FROM THE TWO COUNTS WERE AS FOLLOWS:

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MININT PERCENT NO COMMAND PERCENT

SI 3, 106, 099 43 . 04 2, 671, 085 42. 04

NO 3, 945, 865 54. 68 3, 538, 691 55.69

VOID 93, 093 1.29 82, 684 1.30

BLANK 71, 334 .99 61, 454 . 97

TOTALS 7, 216, 391 100.00 6, 353, 914 100.00

FROM THE MININT TOTAL AN AMAZING NINETY SEVEN PERCENTOF REGISTERED VOTERS CAST BALLOTS ON OCTOBER 5.

GOVERNMENT/SECURITY FORCES

3. (U) ON A NATIONAL RADIO AND TELEVISION HOOKUPLAST NIGHT AT 2130, PRESIDENT PINOCHET REFUSED TOACCEPT THE RESIGNATION OF THE CABINET AND STATED THAT"THE CONSTITUTIONAL ITINERARY WILL BE STRICTLYCOMPLIED WITH. " RUMORS WERE RAMPANT DURING THE DAYTHAT THE PRESIDENT WOULD ANNOUNCE HIS RESIGNATION,

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BUT THIS PROVED TO BE WISHFUL THINKING. LOOKINGTIRED AND HAGGARD, AND HIS VOICE BREAKING MORE THANUSUAL, PINOCHET NONETHELESS SPOKE FORCEFULLY INSAYING THAT HE AND HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD CONTINUE INOFFICE. ABANDONING HIS ROLE AS CIVILIAN CANDIDATE,


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THE PRESIDENT WAS DRESSED IN THE ARMY'S FORMAL WHITESUMMER TUNIC. THE PRESIDENT ACCEPTED THE RESULTS OFTHE PLEBISCITE BUT EMPHASIZED THAT THE VOTE HADNOTHING TO DO WITH THE ESTABLISHED CONSTITUTIONALORDER "AND NO ONE SHOULD FEEL THAT THERE IS A MANDATEFROM THE PEOPLE TO DISTORT THAT WHICH THE PEOPLETHEMSELVES. . . . DEMOCRATICALLY APPROVED IN 1980."

4. (U) THE PRESIDENT ALSO THANKED THOSE CHILEANSWHO HAD SUPPORTED HIS CANDIDACY. IN COMMENTS EARLIERTHAT DAY, MINISTER OF INTERIOR SERGIO FERNANDEZDESCRIBED THE PRESIDENT AS IN EXCELLENT SPIRITS ANDCHALLENGED REPORTERS TO NAME ANOTHER RULER ANYWHEREIN THE WORLD WHO AFTER FIFTEEN YEARS IN OFFICE COULDHAVE WON SUCH A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF THE VOTE.

5. (C) COMMENT: AS ATTENTION NOW FOCUSESON PINOCHET'S FUTURE PLANS, FERNANDEZ'COMMENTS CAN BE INTERPRETED AS LAYING THEGROUNDWORK FOR A POSSIBLE PINOCHETCANDIDACY FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSTO BE HELD IN DECEMBER NEXT YEAR. LEGALEXPERTS HAVE BEEN DIVIDED ON THE ISSUE

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OF WHETHER THE PRESIDENT COULD AT SOMEPOINT RESIGN AND THUS CIRCUMVENT THECONSTITUTIONAL PROHIBITION AGAINST HISSERVING CONSECUTIVE TERMS. END COMMENT.

6. (C) A SENIOR CNI OFFICIAL DISCUSSED THEPLEBISCITE RESULTS WITH AN EMBASSY OFFICERON OCTOBER 6. THE CNI OFFICIAL SAID THATTHE CHILEAN MILITARY WILL ACCEPT ANDHONOR THE RESULTS OF THE PLEBISCITE,BUT WILL NOT ALLOW THE GOVERNMENT TO BEPRESSURED INTO CHANGING CURRENTLY ESTABLISHEDCONSTITUTIONAL PROCEDURES. GOVERNMENTAUTHORITY WILL BE MAINTAINED. HEEMPHASIZED THAT NOW IN PARTICULAR,WHILE ADJUSTING EMOTIONALLY TO THE SHOCKOF THE LOST ELECTION, THE CHILEAN GOVERNMENT


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AND MILITARY SHOULD BE FREE FROM EXTERNALPRESSURES. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY COMMENTARYINDICATING CONCERN ABOUT ANTICIPATEDINTERNAL PRESSURES FOR CHANGE, ESPECIALLYSHOULD THE PCCH BE ACCEPTED BY AND MAKECOMMON CAUSE WITH THE PDC AND OTHER POLITICALPARTIES OF THE "NO" COMMAND.

NO AND SI CAMP DEVELOPMENTS

7. (U) AT HIS PRESS CONFERENCE YESTERDAY, THESPOKESMAN FOR THE OPPOSITION COALITION OF SIXTEENPARTIES PATRICIO AYLWIN REITERATED THAT THE VICTORYOF THE "NO" DID NOT REPRESENT A DEFEAT FOR THE ARMEDFORCES, AND COMPLIMENTED THE ARMED FORCES FOR THEIR

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CORRECT PERFORMANCE DURING THE VOTING PROCESS.AYLWIN AGAIN CALLED FOR DISCUSSIONS WITH THE ARMEDFORCES ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS AND THE DEMOCRATICTRANSITION, INCLUDING CHANGES IN, THE SCHEDULE OFELECTIONS AND REFORM OF THE CONSTITUTION. HESTRESSED THAT THE OPPOSITION IS "NOT PROPOSING ARUPTURE OF THE INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE. "

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8. (U) ON THE OTHER HAND, THE UNITED LEFT IN ITSSTATEMENT HAS INTERPRETED THE NO VICTORY AS A DEFEATNOT ONLY OF PINOCHET BUT ALSO OF HISINSTITUTIONALITY. IN ITS FIRST POST-PLEBISCITESTATEMENT, THE ALMEYDA SOCIALISTS CALLED ON THE ARMEDFORCES TO PONDER THE MEANING OF THE OPPOSITIONTRIUMPH, IN WHICH THE PEOPLE REJECTED ANINSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE LACKING POPULAR SOVEREIGNTY.ECHOING THE CHANT OF MANY YOUNG PEOPLE ON THE STREETSOF SANTIAGO, THE PS/A DEMANDED PINOCHET'S RESIGNATION.

9. (C) COMMENT: THE NO COMMAND COULDBEGIN DIVIDING INTO TWO DISTINCT TENDENCIESWITH THE ALMEYDA SOCIALISTS JOINING THECOMMUNISTS TO AGITATE A POLITICAL UPHEAVAL.THE MODERATE LEADERSHIP, LED BY THECHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS, HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUETO PROMOTE UNDERSTANDING WITH THE ARMEDFORCES.

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10. (U) IN THE "SI" CAMP, NATIONAL RENEWAL (RN)PARTY AND UDI SPOKESMEN ACKNOWLEDGED THE "NO"VICTORY. SPECIFICALLY, RN PRESIDENT SERGIO ONOFREJARPA CALLED FOR REFORM OF THE PROVISIONS FORAMENDING THE CONSTITUTION WHILE WARNING THAT THIS WASNOT THE MOMENT TO PRESSURE PINOCHET. THE UDI'S JAIMEGUZMAN DID NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY FORCONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, BUT INSISTED THAT THEINSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THESAME.

11. (C) COMMENT: THE POLITICIANS OF THERIGHT ARE ALREADY JOCKEYING FOR POSITIONIN THE COMING PRESIDENTIAL ANDCONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS. JARPA MAY BEPUTTING SOME DISTANCE BETWEEN HIMSELF ANDPINOCHET TO CAPTURE THE CENTER RIGHT. THERN, AND POSSIBLY THE UDI, CAN AGREEWITH THE OPPOSITION ON THE NEED FORGREATER FLEXIBILITY IN THE PROVISIONS

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FOR CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM. THE RN WOULDALSO UNDOUBTEDLY LIKE TO SEE THE SENATEBECOME FULLY ELECTIVE BY ELIMINATING THEONE FOURTH OF THE SEATS APPOINTED BYTHE EXECUTIVE AND JUDICIAL BRANCHES,SINCE THIS WOULD GIVE THEIR MEMBERS MORECHANCES TO ATTAIN OFFICE. ON THE OTHER HAND,UDI MEMBERS MAY HAVE THEIR EYE ON SOME OFTHE APPOINTIVE SENATE SEATS.

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12. (U) MARKETS: CHILE'S STOCK EXCHANGE TOOK A SHARPDROP YESTERDAY. THE INDEX OF THE FORTY MOSTFREQUENTLY TRADED STOCKS WAS DOWN 16.7 PERCENT AT THEEND OF THE DAY. INDIVIDUAL STOCKS LOST AS MUCH AS 30PERCENT OF THEIR VALUE. ON THE PARALLEL EXCHANGEMARKET THERE WAS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE BUY ANDSELL RATES: 300 AND 310 PESOS TO THE U. S. DOLLAR,RESPECTIVELY. ON OCTOBER 7, THE STOCK MARKETRECOVERED SOME 4 PERCENT WHILE THE PARALLEL DOLLARLOST SOME GROUND.


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13. (U) THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY: THE "NO" WIN HASUNSETTLED THE CHILEAN BUSINESS COMMUNITY. THE MOSTFREQUENTLY HEARD COMMENT IS THAT INVESTMENT DECISIONSWILL BE PUT ON HOLD UNTIL THE POLITICAL SITUATIONCLEARS. INVESTMENT IN MINING AND OTHER EXTRACTIVENATURAL RESOURCES OPERATIONS, IN PARTICULAR, COULDSLOW SHARPLY.

14. (U) GOVERNMENT REACTIONS: MID-LEVEL OFFICIALSAT THE BANCO CENTRAL AND HACIENDA WERE REASSURED BYPINOCHET'S DECISION TO REJECT THE RESIGNATIONS OF HISCABINET. THIS ACTION CALMED MID-LEVEL BUREAUCRATS'IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ABOUT THE NEAR-TERM DIRECTION OFPOLICY, AND THEIR OWN PERSONAL SITUATIONS.

15. (U) OPPOSITION COMMENTS ON THE ECONOMY:OPPOSITION LEADERS AND ECONOMISTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE

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OPPOSITION HAVE CALLED FOR CALM IN THE BUSINESSCOMMUNITY. THEY ARE SEEKING TO REASSURE INVESTORSTHAT THE "NO" WIN DOES NOT MEAN A MAJOR SHIFT INECONOMIC POLICY.

THE MEDIA

16. (U) THE DEPARTMENT'S STATEMENT OF OCTOBER 6 WASCARRIED BY ALL MAJOR NEWSPAPERS. WE NOTE THATOPPOSITION PARTY SPOKESMEN ARE BEING GIVEN WIDER ANDMORE IMPARTIAL COVERAGE IN THE PRO-GOVERNMENT PRESSIN THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE PLEBISCITE.

POLITICAL VIOLENCE/DEMONSTRATIONS

17. (U) MAJOR VICTORY CELEBRATIONS DIDN'T BEGIN INSANTIAGO UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THEY WEREFESTIVE AND GENERALLY NONCONFRONTATIONAL, INCIDENTSOF VIOLENCE DID FLARE UP AS YOUNGER DEMONSTRATORS AND

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CARABINEROS CLASHED. SECURITY FORCES WERE ESPECIALLYINTENT ON KEEPING THE MASSIVE CROWDS AWAY FROM THEMONEDA (PRESIDENTIAL PALACE) WHICH OF COURSE WAS THEGOAL OF MANY OF THE MORE RAMBUNCTIOUS MARCHERS. TEARGAS AND WATER CANNONS WERE EMPLOYED REPEATEDLY IN THELATE AFTERNOON TO CONTROL THE PRESSING CROWDS. ATLEAST THREE REPORTERS (INCLUDING A PBS SOUND MAN)WERE BEATEN BY CARABINEROS WHEN THEY FAILED TODISPERSE QUICKLY ENOUGH FROM CONTESTED AREAS. AWAYFROM THE MONEDA, HOWEVER, THE ENORMOUS CROWDS MARCHEDCALMLY, HAPPILY AND NONAGRESSIVELY THROUGH THE

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CENTRAL CITY, CHANTING ANTI-PINOCHET SLOGANS ANDOCCASIONALLY SINGING THE NATIONAL ANTHEM. ALTHOUGHYOUTH WERE PREDOMINATE, THE CROWDS CONSISTED OFPEOPLE OF ALL AGES AND INCOME LEVELS. IN SCENESREMINISCENT OF THE 60'S, SEVERAL NEWSPAPERS FEATUREDPICTURES OF HAPPY "NO" SUPPORTERS HUGGING AND SHAKINGHANDS WITH SMILING CARABINEROS. ONLY ISOLATEDEXAMPLES OF THE FAR LEFT WERE EVIDENT (OCCASIONALBANNERS FOR MAPU, MIR OR COMMUNIST PARTY) . ATTEMPTSBY THE "NO" COMMAND TO MOVE THE DEMONSTRATION TO THERIVERSIDE PARQUE FORESTAL HAD SOME EFFECT AS LARGECROWDS MOVED THERE IN THE EARLY EVENING.

18. (U) IN THE POSH NEIGHBORHOOD OF PROVIDENCIA, THE


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CELEBRATION TOOK THE FORM OF A MASSIVE CAR CARAVAN,WHICH CONTINUED TO THREAD ITS WAY THROUGH THE STREETSUNTIL ABOUT 10 P.M. NOT EVERYONE WAS CELEBRATING,HOWEVER. AN EMBOFF WHO LIVES NEAR PRESIDENTPINOCHET'S HOME REPORTED THAT "A LARGE GROUP OFTHUGS" WERE STOPPING CARS, ASKING HOW THE OCCUPANTSHAD VOTED AND THEN SERIOUSLY DAMAGING THE VEHICLES OFSUPPOSED "NO" VOTERS. THIS CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST ANHOUR DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE NUMBERS OFSECURITY FORCES ASSIGNED TO PROTECT THE PRESIDENT

19. (U) THREE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN REPORTED KILLED SOFAR, INCLUDING A FOURTEEN YEAR OLD BOY, AND TWO YOUNGMEN. ALL THREE WERE SHOT WHILE PARTICIPATING IN

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DEMONSTRATIONS IN POOR NEIGHBORHOODS. IT HAS NOTBEEN REPORTED WHO MAY HAVE DONE THE SHOOTING.

20. (U) THE "NO" COMMAND HAS RECEIVED PERMISSIONFROM THE METROPOLITAN REGIONAL INTENDENTE TO HOLD ARALLY AT PARQUE O'HIGGINS FRIDAY AT 4 P.M.

OBSERVERS

21. (U) EMBASSY HAS BEEN DEBRIEFING THE SEVERALGROUPS OF U. S. OBSERVERS WHICH WERE IN CHILE FOR THEPLEBISCITE. AMONG THEM HAVE BEEN THOSE REPRESENTINGTHE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE FREEDOM HOUSE, THEAFL/CIO, AMERICAN FEDERATION OF' TEACHERS, LATINAMERICAN STUDIES ASSOCIATION, AND INTERNATIONAL HUMAN

RIGHTS LAW GROUP. THE OBSERVERS REPORT THAT THEREWERE ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF IRREGULARITIES BUT NO

SIGNIFICANT INSTANCES OF FRAUD. WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS,OBSERVERS FOUND MILITARY AND CIVILIAN AUTHORITIES ATTHE VOTING TABLES FRIENDLY AND HOSPITABLE. PEOPLE ATTHE POLLS IN MANY COMMUNITIES CAME UP AND THANKED THEOBSERVERS FOR COMING. THERE WERE SOME CASES REPORTEDOF OBSERVERS BEING QUESTIONED RATHER SHARPLY BYREPRESENTATIVES OF THE "SI" ABOUT THEIR PRESENCE, BUT

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NO EFFORT WAS MADE TO DENY THEM ACCESS TO THE POLLS.ADOLFQ SUAREZ, SPEAKING FOR THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATICINSTITUTE, DESCRIBED THE PLEBISCITE VOTE AS ANEXAMPLE OF CIVIC RESPONSIBILITY AT A PRESS CONFERENCEHELD BY THE NDI YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, FROMEMBOFFS' AND OBSERVERS' COVERAGE OF THE VOTING, WEAGREE THAT THE ELECTION WAS CONDUCTED IN AN EXEMPLARYFASHION. AFTER A SLOW START AS INEXPERIENCEDPERSONNEL COPED WITH MASSIVE EARLY MORNING TURNOUT,

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AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITYAMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITYAMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITYAMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITYAMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITYAMEMBASSY SAN JOSE PRIORITYAMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITYUSCINCSO QUARRY HEIGHTS PRIORITYUSCINCLANT NORFOLK PRIORITY!i"-'pf tAp!;:;C:,0!8 F~ i 'D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 06 SANTIAGO 07377

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VOTING TABLES ACROSS THE NATION WERE EFFICIENTLY ANDFAIRLY ADMINISTERED. SUAREZ, AT THE NDI'S FAREWELLPRESS CONFERENCE, WAS ASKED WHAT HE WOULD SAY TOPINOCHET IF HE MET WITH HIM. SUAREZ REPLIED THATWAS "SCIENCE FICTION, " SINCE HE DOUBTED THAT PINOCHETWOULD SEE HIM, AND IN ANY EVENT THE CHILEAN PEOPLEHAD ALREADY SAID EVERYTHING THAT NEEDED TO BE SAIDTO GENERAL PINOCHET. GOVERNOR BRUCE BABBITT,CO-CHAIRMAN WITH SUAREZ OF THE NDI DELEGATION, SAIDHE HAD ASKED ONE MAN HOW LONG HE HAD BEEN STANDINGIN LINE TO VOTE. WHEN THE MAN SAID FOUR HOURS,BABBITT ASKED IF THAT WASN'T AN AWFULLY LONG TIME.NOT AT ALL, THE MAN SAID. "I'VE BEEN WAITING 15YEARS. "

STATUS OF US CITIZENS

22. (U) TWO AMERICAN CITIZENS WORKING IN THE MEDIAREPORTED TO THE CONSUL AND PAO THAT THEY WERE BEATENBY CARABINEROS THURSDAY EVENING AND THEIR EQUIPMENTDAMAGED OR CONFISCATED WHEN THEY FAILED TO RESPONDQUICKLY ENOUGH TO POLICE ORDERS TO LEAVE THE AREA.MARTIN LUCAS, A PBS SOUND MAN AND PHOTOGRAPHER LEEMALLIN (THE PICTURE GROUP) SAID THEY WERE ASSAULTED

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IN SEPARATE INCIDENTS BY CARABINEROS WHO HAD ORDEREDTHEM TO LEAVE THE VICINITY BUT DID NOT GIVE THEM ANYTIME TO DO SO. BOTH WERE HIT REPEATEDLY WITHNIGHTSTICKS AND MALLIN WAS KNOCKED TO THE GROUND AND

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KICKED. FILM WAS TAKEN FROM MALLIN'S CAMERAS ANDBOTH SAID THEIR EQUIPMENT WAS DAMAGED AND/ORCONFISCATED. THEY RECEIVED FIRST AID AT NEARBYHOSPITALS AND, EXCEPT FOR MULTIPLE BRUISES, ARE NOW

OKAY. BOTH INDICATED THEY WOULD NOT FILE FORMALCHARGES BUT DID PROVIDE STATEMENTS TO THE PAO FOR APOSSIBLE EMBASSY PROTEST OF VIOLENCE AGAINSTJOURNALISTS.BARNES

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SS-00 E-01 · Chile Project (wSI99900050) U S Department of State Release~ Excise Deny SANTIA 07377...

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