Sri Lanka: Recent Economic Developments in Charts · 2018-01-10 · Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic...
Transcript of Sri Lanka: Recent Economic Developments in Charts · 2018-01-10 · Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic...
Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in
Charts
First Quarter 2017
Central Bank of Sri LankaEconomic Research Department
IndexReal Sector and Inflation
Real GDP Growth (Annual /Quarterly)
Sectoral GDP Growth
Per Capita GDP
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
Unemployment
Poverty
CCPI based Inflation
NCPI based Inflation
Producer's Price Index (PPI)
External SectorEarnings from Merchandise Exports
Expenditure from Merchandise Imports
Trade Balance
Tourism: Arrivals and Earnings
Tourism: Monthly Arrivals
Workers’ Remittances
Current Account Balance
Foreign Direct Investment Flows
Balance of Payment
Gross Official Reserves
Exchange Rate Movements
Fiscal SectorGovernment Revenue
Government Expenditure
Public Investment
Budget Deficit
Central Government Debt
Monetary SectorReserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier
Broad Money Growth
Credit to the Private Sector
Net Credit to Government
Credit to Public Corporations
Net Foreign Assets
Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates
Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve
Market Interest Rates
Financial SectorBanking Sector Indicators (i)
Banking Sector Indicators (ii)
Banking Density
Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (i)
Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (ii)
Stock Market Performance
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Real Sector and Inflation
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Real GDP Growth*Annual Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Growth
6.0
-1.5
4.0
5.95.4
6.2
7.7
6.8
6.0
3.5
8.08.4
9.1
3.4
5.0 4.84.4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
%
6.27.0
6.3
4.3
1.62.1
4.2
6.1
7.1
8.58.0
8.6
9.8
7.2
9.2
7.6
16.1
9.7
5.2
6.8
3.6
5.9
4.0
0.51.3
2.2
5.1
10.6
4.6
7.0
5.2
2.8
5.1
2.4
4.65.3
3.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
08
-Q1
20
08
-Q2
20
08
-Q3
20
08
-Q4
20
09
-Q1
20
09
-Q2
20
09
-Q3
20
09
-Q4
20
10
-Q1
20
10
-Q2
20
10
-Q3
20
10
-Q4
20
11
-Q1
20
11
-Q2
20
11
-Q3
20
11
-Q4
20
12
-Q1
20
12
-Q2
20
12
-Q3
20
12
-Q4
20
13
-Q1
20
13
-Q2
20
13
-Q3
20
13
-Q4
20
14
-Q1
20
14
-Q2
20
14
-Q3
20
14
-Q4
20
15
-Q1
20
15
-Q2
20
15
-Q3
20
15
-Q4
20
16
-Q1
20
16
-Q2
20
16
-Q3
20
16
-Q4
20
17
-Q1
%
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and StatisticsSource: Department of Census and Statistics
* Data from 2011 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics
Sectoral GDP Growth*
13.3
0.6 0.62.62.2 3.9
4.52.5
7.8
4.32.7
3.84.4
8.9
6.0
0.5
-0.2
-5.7
-2.0
-8.4
-3.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
)
Agriculture
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
21.0
10.6
-2.6
8.56.7 6.0
2.80.6
-0.9 -1.5
9.0
13.3
1.1
4.8
1.7 1.1
9.1
2.0
5.9
9.2
6.3
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
)
Industry
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
14.6
11.1 10.78.8
2.9
7.7
5.5
-0.8
1.43.4 2.8
11.6
6.27.2 6.5
3.23.7 3.6
4.8 4.63.5
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
)
Services
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
*Data are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics
*Data from 2011 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics and updated with latest population data
Per Capita GDP*
869 838 874985
1,0631,242
1,4231,614
2,011 2,054
2,744
3,125
3,351
3,609
3,821 3,843 3,835
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US$
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and StatisticsCentral Bank of Sri Lanka
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)*
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
*Based on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP,2015=100)
103.1
102.0
107.8
97.0
102.6
105.2
104.1103.6
101.6
104.7104.3
103.3103.8
103.1
109.5
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
%
Unemployment
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
7.67.9
8.88.4 8.3
7.7
6.5
6.0
5.45.8
4.9
4.24.0
4.4 4.34.7
4.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
Poverty
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
28.8
22.7
15.2
8.9
6.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995/1996 2002 2006/2007 2009/2010 2012/2013
%
Poverty Headcount Ratio
7.3
5.3
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
n-1
5Ju
l-1
5A
ug-
15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-1
6Fe
b-1
6M
ar-1
6A
pr-
16
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6Se
p-1
6O
ct-1
6N
ov-
16
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
%
Core (Y-o-Y) Core (Annual Avg.)
CCPI based Inflation*
CCPI based Headline Inflation CCPI based Core Inflation**
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
7.3
5.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
n-1
5Ju
l-1
5A
ug-
15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-1
6Fe
b-1
6M
ar-1
6A
pr-
16
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6Se
p-1
6O
ct-1
6N
ov-
16
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
%
Headline (Y-o-Y) Headline (Annual Avg.)
*Based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2013=100)
**Core Inflation is calculated by excluding volatile Food, energy and transport from the CCPI
NCPI based Inflation*
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
NCPI based Headline Inflation NCPI based Core Inflation
8.6
5.6
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
n-1
5Ju
l-1
5A
ug-
15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5D
ec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
n-1
6Ju
l-1
6A
ug-
16
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6D
ec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
%
Headline (Y-o-Y) Headline (Annual Avg.)
7.0
6.6
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
n-1
5Ju
l-1
5A
ug-
15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5D
ec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
n-1
6Ju
l-1
6A
ug-
16
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6D
ec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
%
Core (Y-o-Y) Core (Annual Avg.)
*Based on the National Consumer Price Index (2013=100)
Producer's Price Index (PPI)*
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
120.8
150.1
107.8
83.7
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
be
r
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
be
r
De
cem
ber
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
be
r
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
be
r
De
cem
ber
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
be
r
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
be
r
De
cem
ber
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
2014 2015 2016 2017
All Items Agriculture Manufacturing Electricity & Water Supply
*Based on the Producer’s Price Index (PPI,2013 Q4=100)
External Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Earnings from Merchandise Exports
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Customs
Merchandise Exports - Monthly Merchandise Exports - Annual
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecU
S$ m
n
2014 2015 2016 2017
5.54.8 4.7
5.15.8
6.36.9
7.68.1
7.1
8.6
10.69.8
10.411.1
10.510.3
2.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
US$
bn
Expenditure on Merchandise Imports
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Customs
Merchandise Imports - MonthlyMerchandise Imports - Annual
7.36.0 6.1
6.78.0
8.910.3
11.3
14.1
10.2
13.5
20.319.2
18.0
19.418.919.4
5.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
US$
bn
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecU
S$ m
n
2014 2015 2016 2017
Trade Balance
-1.8
-1.2-1.4 -1.5
-2.2-2.5
-3.4-3.7
-6.0
-3.1
-4.8
-9.7-9.4
-7.6
-8.3 -8.4
-9.1
-2.5
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7 Q
1
US$
bn
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
TourismArrivals and Earnings Monthly Arrivals
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: SLTDASource: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Tourist Development Authority (SLTDA)
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nu
mb
er2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
252 213363
454 408 429 410 385 342 350
576
830
1,039
1,715
2,431
2,981
3,518
1,038
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17 Q
1
Nu
mb
er
US$
mn
Earnings from tourism(US$ mn) Tourist arrivals(No) (RHA)
Workers’ Remittances
1,160 1,155 1,287 1,414 1,305
1,968 2,161
2,502
2,918
3,330
4,116
5,145
5,985
6,407
7,018 6,980 7,242
1,734
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,0002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
US$
mn
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Current Account Balance
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
-1.1
-0.2 -0.2-0.1
-0.6 -0.7
-1.5-1.4
-3.9
-0.2
-1.1
-4.6
-4.0
-2.5
-2.0-1.9 -1.9
-0.7
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1
US$
bn
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows
175 82
197 229 223 272
604
734
889
601 516
1,066
1,382 1,437
1,635
1,160 1,079
147
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
US$
mn
Central Bank of Sri LankaEconomic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Board of Investment and Colombo Stock Exchange
Balance of Payments
-0.50.2
0.30.5
-0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
-1.4
2.7
0.9
-1.1 0.2
1.0
1.4
-1.5
-0.5
-0.2
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1
US$
bn
Overall Balance
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Gross Official Reserves
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
De
c-1
2
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
De
c-1
3
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
De
c-1
5
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6
Mar
-17
Mo
nth
s
US$
bn
Gross Official Reserves and Months of Imports
Gross Official Reserves Months of Imports (RHA)
Exchange Rate Movements
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
De
c-1
5
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Rs. US Dollar
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
De
c-1
5
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Rs. Sterling Pound
135
145
155
165
175
185
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
De
c-1
5
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Rs. Euro
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
De
c-1
5
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Rs. Japanese Yen
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
De
c-1
5
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Rs. Indian Rupee
9095
100105110115120125130135140145
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
De
c-1
5
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Rs. Australian Dollar
Fiscal Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Government Revenue16.8 16.6 16.6
15.2 14.915.5
16.315.8
14.914.5
12.713.4
12.0 11.911.5
13.3
14.2
3.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
182
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance
*Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics** 2014 and 2015 data are based on revised GDP estimates made available on 15 March 2017 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Government ExpenditureRecurrent Expenditure
20.2 21.6
20.9
18.4 18.6 18.1 18.6
17.4 16.918.2
14.6 14.213.0 12.6 12.8
15.514.8
3.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance
6.5
5.9
4.6 4.6 4.2
5.8 5.6
6.1 5.7
6.7
5.35.7
4.9 4.84.6
5.4
4.9
1.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
% o
f G
DP
Capital and Net Lending
*Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics** 2014 and 2015 data are based on revised GDP estimates made available on 15 March 2017 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Public Investment
6.4
5.9
4.6
5.04.8
6.36.0
6.4
6.0
6.8
5.65.8
5.1 5.04.7
5.5
5.0
1.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance
*Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics** 2014 and 2015 data are based on revised GDP estimates made available on 15 March 2017 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Budget Deficit
9.5
10.4
8.5
7.3 7.57.0 7.0 6.9 7.0
9.9
7.0
6.2
5.6 5.45.7
7.6
5.4
1.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance
*Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics** 2014 and 2015 data are based on revised GDP estimates made available on 15 March 2017 by the Department of Census and Statistics
*Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics** 2014 and 2015 data are based on revised GDP estimates made available on 15 March 2017 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Central Government Debt
96.9
103.3105.6
102.3 102.3
90.687.9
85.081.4
86.2
71.6 71.168.7
70.8 71.3
77.679.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
1202
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of FinanceMinistry of National Policies and Economic Affairs
Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Monetary Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier
Reserve Money Growth(Y-O-Y) Money Multiplier
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q1
M1 M2 M2b
8.8
12.8
-1.6
3.4
-1.5
15.0
19.8
16.5
27.827.1
12.7
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
De
c-1
2
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
De
c-1
3
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
De
c-1
5
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6
Mar
-17
% Y
-O-Y
Broad Money Growth
22.8
18.2
15.2 15.3
18.3
11.9 11.5
13.4
16.8
19.8
18.9
16.5
17.3
18.4
20.0
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
%
Broad Money (M2b) Growth(Y-O-Y)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Credit to the Private Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
5.3
28.7 29.3
22.2
26.5
(6.6)
34.3 35.2
0.8
28.0
20.4
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
May
-01
Oct
-01
Mar
-02
Au
g-0
2
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3
Ap
r-0
4
Sep
-04
Feb
-05
Jul-
05
De
c-0
5
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
De
c-1
0
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
De
c-1
5
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
%
Rs.
bn
Private Sector Credit Volume Private Sector Credit Growth (RHA)
Net Credit to the Government
Central Bank of Sri LankaEconomic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
Mar
-02
Au
g-0
2
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3
Ap
r-0
4
Sep
-04
Feb
-05
Jul-
05
De
c-0
5
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
De
c-1
0
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
De
c-1
5
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Rs.
bn
Rs.
bn
Central Bank Commercial Banks Claim on Government (net)
Credit to Public Corporations
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Mar
-01
Sep
-01
Mar
-02
Sep
-02
Mar
-03
Sep
-03
Mar
-04
Sep
-04
Mar
-05
Sep
-05
Mar
-06
Sep
-06
Mar
-07
Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Mar
-16
Sep
-16
Mar
-17
Rs.
bn
Net Foreign Assets (NFA)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
De
c-0
2M
ar-0
3Ju
n-0
3Se
p-0
3D
ec-
03
Mar
-04
Jun
-04
Sep
-04
De
c-0
4M
ar-0
5Ju
n-0
5Se
p-0
5D
ec-
05
Mar
-06
Jun
-06
Sep
-06
De
c-0
6M
ar-0
7Ju
n-0
7Se
p-0
7D
ec-
07
Mar
-08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
De
c-0
8M
ar-0
9Ju
n-0
9Se
p-0
9D
ec-
09
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
De
c-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-1
1Se
p-1
1D
ec-
11
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
De
c-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-1
3Se
p-1
3D
ec-
13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5Se
p-1
5D
ec-
15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6M
ar-1
7
Rs.
bn
NFA of Central Bank NFA of Commercial Banks NFA of the Banking System
Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
7.25
8.75
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Feb
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
%
Average Weighted Call Money Rate Standing Deposit Facility Rate* Standing Lending Facility Rate **
*Previously known as the Repo Rate** Previously known as the Reverse Repo Rate
Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Feb
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Feb
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
Feb
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
%
Treasury Bill Yields
91- Day Treasury bill 182- Day Treasury bill 364- Day Treasury bill
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0 5
10
15
20
25
30
%
Secondary Market Yield Curve
End 2013 End 2014 End 2015
End 2016 2017 Q1
5 Y
ear
10
Year
15
Year
20
Year
25
Year
30
Year
1 Y
ear
Market Interest Rates
11.56
8.81
11.389.63
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
De
c-1
2
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
De
c-1
3
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
De
c-1
5
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6
Mar
-17
%
Monthly Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR)
Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR)
Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR)
T-Bill yield (91-day)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Financial Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Banking Sector Indicators (i)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
2,601
3,149 3,427
3,895
4,715
5,541 5,844
3,073
3,625
4,170
4,686
5,403
6,296 6,587
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
Rs.
bn
Assets and Liabilities of the Banking Sector
Loans and Advances Deposits
99.3 116.6 191.0 165.5 152.8 142.3 156.0
3.8 3.7
5.6
4.2
3.2
2.62.7
2.12.2
3.8
2.6
1.7
1.21.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1
%
Rs.
bn
Non-Performing Loans of the Banking Sector
Gross NPL Volume(Rs.bn) Gross NPL Ratio(%)(RHA)
Net NPL Ratio(%)(RHA)
Banking Sector Indicators (ii)
19.8
20.3
16.0 16.6 16.217.3
16.5
4.2
4.1
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
1.7 1.7
1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1%%
Profitability Indicators
Return on Equity Net Interest Margin (RHA) Return on Assets (RHA)
2,269 2,601 2,942 3,498 4,291 5,062 5,240
14.414.7
14.9
14.1
13.0 11.412.0
16.0
16.4
17.6
16.6
15.4
14.314.9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
%
Rs.
bn
Capital Adequacy Ratios
Risk Weighted Aseets (Rs.bn) Core CAR (%)(RHA) Total CAR (%)(RHA)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Banking Density by Province2009 2017 Q1*
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
*Banking Density by Province is calculated based on the mid-year population estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics
Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (i)
489.9
596.6
717.6
853.2
1,050.4
1,265.5 1,290.4
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
Rs.
bn
Assets of the LFC & SLC Sector
186.0
254.1
337.3
414.1
480.6
530.7 558.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
Rs.
bn
Total Deposits of the LFC & SLC Sector
Central Bank of Sri LankaEconomic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
LFC: Licensed Finance CompaniesSLC: Specialised Leasing Companies
Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (ii)
Central Bank of Sri LankaEconomic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
8.07.3 7.0
8.38.9
7.97.8
6.33.7
1.93.2 2.8 3.6
3.7
34.0
15.7
6.4
14.9
10.9
19.820.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
%
Profitability Indicators of the LFC and SLC Sector
Net Interest Margin Return on Assets
Return on Equity
20.9 19.9 23.6 37.0 44.1 47.4 53.0 50.5
7.9
5.1 5.0
6.76.9
5.75.3
4.9
3.4 2.0 1.6
2.5 2.31.6
1.2 1.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1
%
Rs.
bn
Non-Performing Advances
Gross NPA (Rs.bn) Gross NPA Ratio (%)(RHA)
Net NPA Ratio (%)(RHA)
Stock Market PerformanceShare Price Indices and Market Capitalisation Net Foreign Inflows to the Secondary
Market
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Colombo Stock Exchange
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
May
-13
Au
g-1
3N
ov-
13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4Se
p-1
4D
ec-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5A
ug-
15
No
v-1
5Fe
b-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7M
ar-1
7
Rs.
bn
Ind
ex
Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation
Market Capitalisation (RHA) All Share Price Index S&P SL 20 Index
-167.2
304.0
174.2 161.9
-37.3
2.333.3
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
US$
mn
Net Foreign inflows
The sets of graphs above summarise macroeconomicand financial market trends in Sri Lanka. However,these graphs do not contain source data. An extensiveset of data is available in the CBSL website. Informationfor the first quarter of 2017 is provisional.
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department