Assessing Global Patterns of Regime ShiftsJuan-Carlos Rocha - PhD student (2010-2015)

The problemDoes Johan need a new chair?? - NOUP

Frequency and intensity of regime shifts are likely to increase in the anthropocene & many ES’s may be substantially affected.

What are the main drivers globally?What can we do to manage them and avoid undesirable regime shifts?What are the possible cascading or synergistic effects?Where are they likely to happen?Vulnerable areas? Rockström et al., 2009

Yeah, sure... but how?By getting an office or figures more colorful than Johan’s?? - NOUP

Juan uses recent developments of network science and apply them to toy models of regime shifts. He plans to map vulnerability of regime shifts to climate change and apply data mining techniques to anticipate potential impacts on ecosystem services.

Network of causal loop diagrams for 19 regime shifts in polar, terrestrial and marine ecosystems

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

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Proportion of Regime Shifts (n=20)

Prop

ortio

n of

Driv

ers

shar

ing

caus

ality

to R

egim

e Sh

ifts

(n=5

5)

Agriculture

Atmospheric CO2

Deforestation

Demand

DroughtsFishing

Global warming

Human populationNutrients inputs

Urbanization

AgricultureAtmospheric CO2

DeforestationDemand

Droughts

Fishing

Global warming

Human population

Nutrients inputsUrbanization

What are the main drivers of Regime Shifts?

Food production & climate change are the most important drivers or regime shifts globally

Only 11 out of our 55 drivers cause 25-60% of the 20 regime shifts we analyzed in marine, terrestrial and polar ecosystems . These 11 drivers interact with 50-85% of other drivers when causing regime shifts.

Bivalves collapse

Coral transitions

Dry land degradation Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries collapse

Floating plants

Forest to savannas

Greenland

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Marine foodwebs

Monsoon weakening

Peatlands

River channel change

Salt marshes

Soil salinization

Soil structure

Thermohaline circulation

Tundra to Forest

Marine regime shifts tend to share significantly more drivers and tend to have similar feedback mechanisms, suggesting they can synchronize in space and time. By managing key drivers several regime shifts can be avoided in aquatic systems.

Terrestrial regime shifts share less drivers. Higher diversity of drivers makes management more context dependent.

How the drivers tend to interact?

What does it mean for management?

Floating plantsBivalves collapseEutrophication

Fisheries collapseCoral transitions

HypoxiaEncroachment

Salt marshesSoil salinization

Soil structureForest to savannas

Dry land degradationKelps transitions

Monsoon weakeningPeatlands

Marine foodwebsGreenland

Thermohaline circulationRiver channel change

Tundra to ForestLocalNationalInternational

Drivers by Management Type

Proportion of RS Drivers

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Avoiding regime shifts calls for poli-centric institutions.

Half of the drivers of 75% of the regime shifts require international cooperation to manage them.

Given the high diversity of drivers, focusing on well studied variables (e.g. nutrients inputs) wont preclude regime shifts from happening.

Parallel projects & collaboration

1. Text mining to infer potential ecosystem services affected by regime shifts (with Robin Wikström - Abo University)

2. Networks of Drivers and Ecosystem Services consequences of Marine Regime Shifts (with Peterson, Biggs, Blenckner & Yletyinen)

3. Experimental economics in Colombia: how people respond to abrupt ecosystem change? (with Schill, Crepin & Lindahl)

4. Resource - trade networks: Can we detect cascading effects among regime shifts by tracing trade signals?

5. Holling’s logic in reverse: Can networks infer resilience surrogates in SES?

Thanks!!

Welcome to join Juan’s licentiate defense: June 3rd 2013

Questions? juan.rocha@stockholmresilience.su.se

Research blog: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com

News and papers on regime shifts: @juanrocha