Spy v. Spy: Espionage, 1947-Present

Dr. David R SmithOhio Northern University

Introduction

• The United States government includes a large number of officials who require foreign and domestic security intelligence to perform their duties.

• Only if those officials are sufficiently informed about the state of the world and the likely consequences of various policies and actions can they be expected to make sound decisions.

The Ten Biggest American Intelligence Failures

1. Pearl Harbor Attack 19412. The Bay of Pigs Invasion 19613. The Tet Offensive 19684. The Yom Kippur War 19735. The Iranian Revolution 19796. The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan 19797. The Collapse of the Soviet Union 19918. The Indian Nuclear Test 19989. The 9/11 Attacks 200110.The Iraq War 2003

Other consequences of poor intelligence -

• U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade 1999• attacks of Sept 11, 2001, and the continued designs of al-

Qaeda, • failure of US forces to find stockpiles of weapons of mass

destruction in Iraq after the 2003 invasion and the insurgency that has followed,

• difficulties involved in trying to halt the North Korean and Iranian nuclear weapons programs, and

• the North Korean missile launches during the summer of 2006

Introduction

• This course provides a comprehensive and detailed overview of the US intelligence community • a description of its collection and analysis

organizations, • the activities of those organizations, and • the management structure that is responsible for

directing and supervising those organizations and activities

Intelligence? The product resulting from the:

• Collection, (open source, clandestine, Humint, technical)

•Processing,

• Integration, • Analysis, (transfer raw intelligence finished)

•Evaluation, &• Interpretation

of available information concerning foreign entities, like:• Foreign governments,• Groups (terrorist), or• Areas

Intelligence? Intelligence activities only involve:

Collection and analysis and transform “intelligence” Counterintelligence

Assess foreign security services & neutralize them Denial and deception operations

Keeping activity secret! Covert Action (s)

operation designed to influence foreign governments, persons, or events in support of sponsoring governments foreign policy objectives Keeping sponsorship secret! Types:

1. Black propaganda2. Grey propaganda3. Paramilitary or political actions designed to

overthrow/undermine attempt to get advanced weaponry4. Support of individuals or organizations5. Economic operations6. Disinformation7. Targeted killings

Why have intelligence agencies?

1. To avoid strategic surprise:• Endanger a nation’s existence

(vs. tactical surprise)

2. To provide long-term expertise• Senior policy-makers are

transients• Stability greater in

intelligence agencies vs state or defense departments

• Fewer political appointees

3. To support policy process• Need tailored, timely

information

The Intelligence Cycle

• Relate intelligence collection & analysis to needs of decision makers & to use made of intelligence product

• Process by which information is:• Acquired• Converted into finished intelligence, &• Made available to policy makers

• Five steps:1. Planning and direction2. Collection3. Processing4. Analysis & production5. Dissemination

The Intelligence Cycle

A. Planning and direction• Management of entire intelligence effort:

• ID need for data to final delivery• Begin with request & requirement for information

• So everyone knows automatically what to collectB. Collection

• Gathering of raw data

C. Processing• Convert information to form suitable for finished intelligence• Interpret & measurement of

• Images & signals• Language translation• Decryption• Sort by subject matter & • Data reduction

The Intelligence Cycle

D. Analysis and production• Conversion of basic intelligence to finished intelligence

• Integration• Evaluation• Analysis of all available data

• Raw intelligence is often fragmentary & contradictory

• Specialists are required to give it meaning and significance

E. Dissemination• Distribution of finished intelligence to consumer

• Policymakers and operators whose needs triggered the process

The Intelligence Cycle Policymakers do not (usually) specify particular

items of information to be collected May require reports on

Chinese strategic forces or political situation in Israel

Collectors determine how to obtain information Decision makers in midst of crisis may only want

processed data instead of fully analyzed data Cuban missile crisis?

Most important intelligence was purely factual reporting

Types of Intelligence Political, military, scientific & technical, economic,

sociological1. Political: foreign and domestic politics

Foreign policy of other nations: support or opposition to US on things like ME, Iran, North Korea

Domestic: most conflicts in world today

2. Military Capabilities of potential adversaries? Need/impact of military hardware sales? Assess balance of power between pairs of nations

3. Scientific/technical Civilian & military related: computer tech., bio-tech.,

lasers (dual-use technologies) Atomic energy activities

Types of Intelligence

3. Economic: Strength and vulnerabilities of a nation’s economy

(economic sanctions work?) Pricing of key resources: oil, gas, minerals

4. Sociological: Civilian & military related: computer tech., bio-tech.,

lasers (dual-use technologies)