Spring 2017 Propensity Update - JAMRS§Mail-based survey fielded from December 30, 2016, to June 26,...

Spring 2017 Propensity Update

Public ReleaseJanuary 2018

1

Youth Poll: Propensity

12%12%

15%13%

15%16%

15%14%

15%14%

10%9% 9%

11%13% 12%

13%12%13%12%12%

13%14%13%

14%15%14%

15%14%

12%13%14%

12%13% 13%

14%

18%15%

23%

19%

22%23%

20% 22%21% 21%

14%13%12%

15%17%

15%17% 16%

18%17%

18%18%20% 19%19%

21%19%

22%

19%17%17%

19%17%

16%17%

19%

6%

9%7%

8% 8%10%

9%7%

8%7%

6%4% 4%

6%

10% 9%8% 8%

7% 7%5%

8% 8%7%

9% 8% 8% 8% 8%7%

9% 8%7%

10%8%8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr-01

Aug-01

Nov-01

Nov-02

Jun-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Summer-12

Fall-12

Spring-13

Summer-13

Fall-13

Spring-14

Summer-14

Fall-14

Spring-15

Summer-15

Fall-15

Spring-16

Summer-16

Fall-16

Spring-17

Aggregate Male Female

2

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not

General Military Propensity By Gender

% Definitely/Probably

Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.

One year earlier

Source: Department of Defense Youth Polls

= Significantly change from previous poll

23%

17%

12%11%

9%8%

4%

8%9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Department of Defense Youth Poll (Spring 2017)

Note: Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.


Age

3

General Military Propensity By Age


10%9%

12%10%

12%13%

11%

12%

12%11%

9%8%

7%8%

12%10%

11%

10%10%10%

9%10%

11%10%10%

10%

11%

11%11%

9%10%11%

10%

9% 9%11%

16%17%

14%15%

16%

21%

16%

11%

15%16%

9%

9%10%

13%16%

15%15%

15%

18%17%17%

23%22%

19%

21%

27%

18%

22%

16%

21%20%20%19%

21%

18%19%

14%

20%

27%

24%25%25%

27%

22%20%

25%

14%

11%13%

16%16%16%16%

15%15%14%16% 15%

18%

18%

18%19%

18%

21%

17%15%15%

17%

14%16%

15% 18%

8%10%

11%11%

10%10%8%

13%

8%7%

18%

12%10%

14%

5%

12% 11%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr-01

Aug-01

Nov-01

Nov-02

Jun-0

3

Nov-03

May-0

4

Nov-04

Jun-0

5

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Jun-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jun-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jun-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jun-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jun-1

1

Dec-1

1

Summ

er-1

2

Fall-1

2

Spring-1

3

Summ

er-1

3

Fall-1

3

Spring-1

4

Summ

er-1

4

Fall-1

4

Spring-1

5

Summ

er-1

5

Fall-1

5

Spring-1

6

Summ

er-1

6

Fall-1

6

Spring-1

7

White Black Hispanic Asian



% Definitely/Probably One year earlier


General Military Propensity By Race/Ethnicity

Note: Estimates for Black and Asian youth should be interpreted with caution because of relatively large margins of error.


4

7%

7%

10%

9% 10%

11%10%

10% 10%

11%

6% 6%

6%

7%

8%

8%7% 8%

7% 7%

7%8% 8%

8%

9%

10%

8%

9%

9%

8%

8%

9%

8%

9%8%

8%

7%7%

9%

7%

9%

9%8% 8%

8%

10%

5%

5%

4%

7%

8%

7%

9%

7% 7% 7%6%

7%

7%

8%8%

9%

8%

10%

9%

8%8% 8%

7%

8% 8%

7%

9%

7%

9%

10% 10%

11%11%

10%11% 10%

7%

8%

7%

8%

9%9%

8%8% 8% 8% 8%

9%9% 9%

9%

10%9%

10%

9%9% 9%

8%9%

9%8% 9%

6%6%

8% 8% 8%

10%

7%8%

8%9%

6%

5%

6% 7%8%

7%

7%7%

7% 7%

7% 6%7% 7%

7%8%

7%

8%8%

8%7% 7%

6%

7% 6%

6%

4%

5% 6% 6% 6% 6%6%

6%

7%

6%

4%5%

4%

5%6% 6%

5% 5% 5%5% 4%

4%

5% 5%5%

6%

5%

6%

5%

4%4%

5%

4%

5%4% 5%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Apr-01

Aug-01

Nov-01

Nov-02

Jun-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Summer-12

Fall-12

Spring-13

Summer-13

Fall-13

Spring-14

Summer-14

Fall-14

Spring-15

Summer-15

Fall-15

Spring-16

Summer-16

Fall-16

Spring-17

Army Navy Air Force Marine Corps Coast Guard


FPP10A_Q–FPP10E_Q: In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in each of the following Military Services?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not


Active Duty Propensity by Service


One year earlier


5

6

Youth Poll: Economic Conditions

20% 22% 22%28%

30% 31% 31% 32%29% 29%

23% 23% 24%29%

37%

47%

51% 52%57%

52% 53% 52%

47%

45%

47% 46% 45% 43% 42%37% 37%

35% 35% 34% 32% 32%

79%76%77%

71% 69% 68% 67% 66%67% 67%

74% 74% 73%

66%

59%

48%

45%44%41%

46% 44%47%

50%52%

50% 52% 53% 55% 55%60% 61%

63% 62% 64% 66% 66%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Apr-01

Aug-01

Nov-01

Nov-02

Jun-0

3

Nov-03

May-0

4

Nov-04

Jun-0

5

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Jun-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jun-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jun-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jun-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jun-1

1

Dec-1

1

Summ

er-1

2

Fall-1

2

Spring-1

3

Summ

er-1

3

Fall-1

3

Spring-1

4

Summ

er-1

4

Fall-1

4

Spring-1

5

Summ

er-1

5

Fall-1

5

Spring-1

6

Summ

er-1

6

Fall-1

6

Spring-1

7

Very Difficult/Impossible Somewhat/Not At All Difficult

§ As the economy has improved over the last few years, the proportion of youth who agree that it is very difficult or impossible to get a full-time job in their community has trended downward.

EMP5: “How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?”

U.S. Military and Economic ConditionsDifficulty of Finding a Job


How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?



7

8

18%19% 20%

27%29%

29%

30%

30%27%

29%

22% 22%23%26%

37%

48% 50%

52%

54%51%52%

49%

45%

44% 45%44%

44%

41%

41%

35%

35%

35%

33%31%

29% 31%

24%

31%

28%

36%38%

41% 41%43%

35%30% 34% 33% 33%

41% 41%

48% 51%

54%

64%

56%61%

59%55%

54%56%

50% 47%49%

50% 49%47%

37%38%

44%

36%40%

23%

31%

22%

25%27%

30%

30%

29%

31%

28%

22% 20% 20%

29% 34%

50%

50%48%

60%

51%

53%53%

49%

43%

48%

43%

45%

44%40%

39%36%

34%

38%

35% 35%

30%

48%

44%

48%47%

34%

40%42%

43%

31%

43%

33%

27%

31%

22%

31%29% 27%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr-01

Aug-01

Nov-01

Nov-02

Jun-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Summer-12

Fall-12

Spring-13

Summer-13

Fall-13

Spring-14

Summer-14

Fall-14

Spring-15

Summer-15

Fall-15

Spring-16

Summer-16

Fall-16

Spring-17

White Black Hispanic Asian

§ The proportion of youth who reported that it is very difficult or impossible to get a full-time job remained statistically unchanged by race/ethnicity from Fall 2016 to Spring 2017.

Note: Estimates for Black and Asian youth should be interpreted with caution because of relatively large margins of error.EMP5: “How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?”

U.S. Military and Economic ConditionsDifficulty of Finding a Job by Race/Ethnicity


% Very Difficult/Impossible



Backup

9

§ Mail-based survey fielded from December 30, 2016, to June 26, 2017.• A series of five mailings were sent to eight different cohorts semimonthly that invited recipients to participate.

§ Final Youth Poll Sample: 6,544 youth aged 16 through 24• 5,188 youth aged 16 through 21 – the metrics presented herein focus on this age group.• 1,356 youth aged 22 through 24

§ Weighted to reflect general population on several dimensions:• Gender• Age • Race/Ethnicity• Educational Attainment• Region

§ Stratified Random Sample

§ Note: Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.

§ Note: Certain slides provide estimates by race/ethnicity. • The December 2010 effort was the first Youth Poll with a sufficiently large sample size to report estimates for

Asian youth. Asian estimates are included only at the overall level and not by gender because of sample size restrictions. The effective sample size for Asian youth is small and results should be interpreted cautiously.

Source: Department of Defense Spring 2017 Youth Poll

Youth Poll Methodology and Sample

10

17%16%

18%18%18%18%

16%17%

13%

14%14%15%14%14%14%

15%

12%12%

15%

13%

15%16%

15%14%

15%14%

10%9% 9%

11%

13%12%

13%12%

13%12%12%13%

14%13%

14%15%

14%

15%

14%12%13%

14%

12%13%

13%

14%

24%

24%

26% 26%26%27%

23%

24%

19%

20%19%20%

18% 18%

18%

20%

18%

15%

23%

19%

22%23%

20%

22%21% 21%

14%

13% 12%

15%

17%

15%

17%

16%

18%17%

18%

18%

20%

19%

19%

21%

19%

22%

19%

17%

17%

19%

17%

16%

17%19%

10%9%

10%11%

10%10%9%10%

7%

9% 9%10%10%

8%9%

10%

6%

9%

7%8% 8%

10%9%

7%8%

7%6%

4% 4%

6%

10%9%

8%8%7% 7%

5%

8%8%

7%

9%8% 8% 8% 8%7%

9% 8%7%

10%

8% 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Apr-01

Aug-01

Nov-01

Nov-02

Jun-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Summer-12

Fall-12

Spring-13

Summer-13

Fall-13

Spring-14

Summer-14

Fall-14

Spring-15

Summer-15

Fall-15

Spring-16

Summer-16

Fall-16

Spring-17

Aggregate Male Female

Source: Department of Defense YATS and Youth Polls

Historical General Military PropensityBy Gender




Questions: YATS (Q503)–Jun-10 (FPP9): “Now, I'd like to ask you how likely it is that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years? Dec-10–Spring-17 (FPP9): “How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?”

11

12

2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3%2% 1%2% 2%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

9% 10%12%11%12%13%12%11%11%12%

8% 7% 7%9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10%10% 9% 10%11%10%11%11%

9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 10%

26%29%

33%31%31%31%

32%31%31%31%29%30%29%

27%31% 31%

29%28%28%29%29%30%31%31%32%31%30%31%

33%33%32%35%

33%35%

32% 31%

61%59%

52%56%

54%53%53%54%54%54%

61% 61%62%61%

55% 56%58%

59%59%58%58%56%55%56%54%54%

56%53%53%54%55%

51%55%

52%55% 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Apr-01

Aug-01

Nov-01

Nov-02

Jun-0

3

Nov-03

May

-04

Nov-04

Jun-0

5

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Jun-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jun-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jun-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jun-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jun-1

1

Dec-1

1

Summ

er-1

2

Fall-1

2

Spring-1

3

Summ

er-1

3

Fall-1

3

Spring-1

4

Summ

er-1

4

Fall-1

4

Spring-1

5

Summ

er-1

5

Fall-1

5

Spring-1

6

Summ

er-1

6

Fall-1

6

Spring-1

7

Definitely Probably Probably not Definitely not


General Military Propensity




Reasons to Join

27%

27%

28%

30%

32%

38%

41%

44%

45%

49%

Provides future job opportunities

Pride/self-esteem/honor

It is my duty/obligation to my country

Experience adventure

Health and medical benefits

Gain experience/work skills

To help others

Pay/money

Travel

To pay for future education

RTJ: if you were to consider joining the U.S. Military, what would be the main reason(s)? Response options: Yes, multiple response

Top 10 Reasons


Note: Youth ages 16–21.

13

27%

27%

27%

28%

29%

32%

43%

51%

53%

65%

Required to live in places I don't want to

Don't believe I would qualify

Don't want to be deployed overseas

Family obligations

Dislike of military lifestyle

Possibility of interference with college education

Other careeer interests

Leaving family and friends

Possibility of PTSD or other emotional/psych issues

Possibility of physical injury/death

RNTJ: What would be the main reason(s) why you would NOT consider joining the U.S. Military?Response options: Yes, multiple response

Top 10 Reasons


Note: Youth ages 16–21.

Reasons Not to Join

14

Spring 2017 Propensity Update - JAMRS§Mail-based survey fielded from December 30, 2016, to June 26,...

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