SPRING 2014 EESC G9910 Atmospheric Science Seminar
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Transcript of SPRING 2014 EESC G9910 Atmospheric Science Seminar
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SPRING 2014EESC G9910
Atmospheric Science Seminar
Fri 9:15-10:45 Comer 1st Floor Seminar
Room
Jan 24, 2014: Organizational Meeting and Overview (IPCC process; report
highlights)
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IPCC AR5 WG1 Report: Course Information
Motivating questions:What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based? Where are there critical knowledge gaps?
FULL FINAL REPORT WILL POST JAN 30.Final SPM is posted: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
Sign up on email list (circulating) • receive course emailsAccess to galley proof version of chapter for next week cannot be publicly distributed:
www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/temp/Ch1.pdf
Supplemental readings at course website:www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/eescG9910.html
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Course participation
a) Sign up for presentation – think about it so we can start assigning by end of class
b) All are welcome to present, students are given first priority in choosing chapters.
Schedule with names will be on course website
b) credit options: 1 point (discussion only)
2 points (discussion + presentation)3 points (discussion + presentation +
paper)
We welcome involvement from the full LDEO community. Feel free to join us whenever possible.
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Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks
1/31/142/7/14
2/14/142/21/14
3/7/14
3/28/14
2/28/14
3/14/14
4/4/144/11/14
4/18/14
4/25/145/2/14
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Guidance on presentations and final paper(additional details posted on course website)
Presentations: focus on the figures and the stories they tell. • Plan on presenting ~15-20 figures per class
2 options for final Papers (8 page max): Option #1: Choose a “hot” research area topic and critically assess the new findings since the IPCC AR5 WG1 publication freeze date (March 15, 2013). How should the 2013 report be updated in light of these new findings? Option #2: Identify a critical knowledge gap, either explicitly discussed in the report or one that you feel should have been. Write a paper or a research proposal describing the work needed to fill this gap.
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The rest of today
1. A little background on the IPCC process, from AR4AR5 -- slides c/o Thomas Stocker University of Bern, Switzerland, IPCC WG1 co-chair – with Qin Dahe
2. Major highlights from the report -- slides c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, Science Director, WG1 TSU-- available at:
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Climat Change Science 2013: Haikuhttp://daily.sightline.org/2013/12/16/the-entire-ipcc-report-in-19-illustrated-haiku/
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
• Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations ....
• Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations.
• Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ...
IPCC (2007):
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)
[...]
[...]
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5:
Introduction Chapter 1
Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5
Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7
From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10
Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12
Integration Chapters 13, 14
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
FAR 199011 Chapters
SAR 199511 Chapters
TAR 200114 Chapters
AR4 200711 Chapters
AR5 201314 Chapters
sea levelcloudscarbon cycle
Climate Change2013
observations
regional change
paleoclimate
Structure of AR5 in perspective
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
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c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead AuthorsNov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, ChinaMar 2011 Completion of 0-order draftJul 2011 Second LA meetingNov 2011 Completion 1st-order draftApr 2012 Third LA meetingAug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draftJan 2013 Fourth LA meetingMay 2013 Completion of Final DraftSep 2013 Final Approval Plenary WGIMar 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIIApr 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIIISep 2014 Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report
2010
2012
2011
2013
2014
Sep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus
July 2009 Scoping Meeting
submitted
31. July 2012
in press, published15. March 2013
Schedule
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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HIGHLIGHTS: Observations
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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HIGHLIGHTS: Observations
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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HIGHLIGHTS: Observations
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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HIGHLIGHTS: Observations
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution)
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution)
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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HIGHLIGHTS: Projected 21st C temperature changes
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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HIGHLIGHTS: Projected global mean sea level rise
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
2081-2100 range:RCP8.5: 0.45-0.82 mRCP2.6: 0.26-0.55 m
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HIGHLIGHTS: Future options
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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Course Goals
Learn the scientific evidence behind headline -and other- statements in AR5.
What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based?
-- models, observations, theory-- strength of evidence
Where are there critical knowledge gaps?
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c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables
AII.1: Historical Climate System DataAII.2: Anthropogenic EmissionsAII.3: Natural EmissionsAII.4: Abundances of the Well Mixed Greenhouse GasesAII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and LifetimesAII.6: Effective Radiative ForcingAII.7: Environmental Data
As in the TAR, to document the numbers behind the figures, generally decadal values
Annex III: Glossary
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c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
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Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks
1/31/142/7/14
2/14/142/21/14
3/7/14
3/28/14
2/28/14
3/14/14
4/4/144/11/14
4/18/14
4/25/145/2/14
KerenKen
Nora
Olivia
Cari
Ethan
Chloe