ÄPPLARÖ...100092 16x 113142 4x 16x 4x 4x 4x 4x 16x 4x 4x 122398 3. 4 AA-2053778-4. 16x 5
Spotting Nascent Open Source Projects - SCALE 16x · • Many people use more than one IM protocol,...
Transcript of Spotting Nascent Open Source Projects - SCALE 16x · • Many people use more than one IM protocol,...
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Spotting Nascent Open Source Projects
Ross David Turk [[email protected]]Open Source Technology Group
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Overview
•What is SourceForge.net?
•Project success criteria
•Case studies: Successful projects
•What does a successful project do?
•Case studies: Up-and-comers
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
What is SourceForge.net?
“The whole is more than the sum of its parts.” Aristotle
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
SourceForge.net is...
...the most substantial OSS repository, founded in 1999 and operated by OSTG.
...a provider of tools and technology.
...a marketplace for OSS development and consumption.
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
SourceForge is big... really big
SF.net website (in 11/2006):• 26 million unique visitors
• 140 million page views
• 250,000 searches per day
• 1.48 million registered users
• 138,000 registered projects
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
SourceForge is big... really big
SF.net hosted projects (in 11/2006):• 347 million page views (9.09 TB)
• 64 million files downloaded (533.7 TB)
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Always growing
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Registered Users
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Always growing
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Registered Projects
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Geographic Breakdown
39.79%
2.78%3.02%
3.07% 3.68% 4.03%
5.72%
5.81%
6.26%
8.01%
17.89%
United StatesGermanyItalySpainFranceUnited KingdomBrazilCanadaPolandJapanOther
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Project success criteria
“Seventy percent of success in life is showing up.” Woody Allen
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Success
Projects have succeeded when:• The main objective has been achieved
• Users are happy with the solution
Other signs:• Derivatives or forks are created
• The solution has wide distribution
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Case Studies:Successful Projects
“If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be research.”
Albert Einstein
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Introducing PDFCreator
PDFCreator• Started in July of 2002
• Purpose:
• Allow creation of PDFs via the print mechanism in Windows
• Audience:
• Windows users who want to create PDFs, but don’t need the full features of Acrobat.
• Technology / Standards:
• Visual Basic, GhostScript, PDF
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
PDFCreator: Development
PDFCreator:• Developers: 2
• Commits: 146 (past 9 months)
• Releases: 9 total
• Average times...
• to close a bug: 9 days
• to close a patch: 15 days
• to close a feature request: 11 days
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
PDFCreator: Consumption
0
137,500
275,000
412,500
550,000
2003 2004 2005 2006
Major Release
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
PDFCreator: Observations
PDFCreator:• They picked a good problem to solve
• Few other OSS solutions
• Solved using a standard mechanism (printing)
• Developers seem responsive in forums and lists
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Introducing: Gaim
Gaim• Started in November of 1998
• Purpose:
• To allow users to communicate using multiple instant messaging protocols
• Audience:
• Desktop users
• Technologies / Standards
• C, GTK
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Gaim: Development
Gaim• Developers: 24 (~12 core)
• Commits: 1998 (past 9 months)
• Releases: 107 total
• Average times...
• to close a bug: 29 days
• to close a patch: 16 days
• to close a feature request: 21 days
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Gaim: Consumption
0
150,000
300,000
450,000
600,000
2002 2004 2005 200620012000 2003
Notable releases
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Gaim: Observations
Gaim• They picked a good problem to solve
• Many people use more than one IM protocol, many dislike the provided programs (or running more than one of them)
• Very regular releases
• Large community of contributors
• Plugin architecture
• Multiple supported platforms
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Introducing: phpMyAdmin
phpMyAdmin• Started in 1998
• Purpose:
• Web-based management of MySQL servers
• Audience:
• Database administrators, developers using MySQL, system administrators, ISPs, education
• Technologies / Standards:
• MySQL, PHP
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
phpMyAdmin: Development
phpMyAdmin• Developers: 8
• Commits: 383 (past 9 months)
• Releases: 130
• Average times...
• to close a bug: 47 days
• to close a patch: 70 days
• to close a feature request: 49 days
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
phpMyAdmin: Consumption
0
87,500
175,000
262,500
350,000
2003 2004 2005 2006
Major Release
2002
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
phpMyAdmin: Observations
phpMyAdmin• Easy to install
• Minimal requirements
• Simple process
• Authenticates with MySQL
• Founders of current incarnation took over from the original project founder
• Has inclusion in Linux distributions
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Introducing: Gallery
Gallery• Started in July of 2002
• Purpose:
• Web-based photo management
• Audience:
• People who want to share pictures
• Technologies / Standards:
• PHP, MySQL/PostgreSQL, Smarty, DAV
• NetPBM, ImageMagick, GD
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Gallery: Development
Gallery• Developers: 22
• Commits: 2163 (past 9 months)
• Releases: 101 total
• Average times...
• to close a bug: 30 days
• to close a patch: 11 days
• to close a feature request: 51 days
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Gallery: Consumption
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2003 2004 2005 2006
Major Release
20022001
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Gallery: Observations
Gallery• Lots of integration plugins
• Mediawiki / Serendipity
• Joomla / Nuke
• iPhoto / Windows XP
• Developed using unit tests
• People can run from SCM
• Pluggable modules and themes
• Lots of ways to participate
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
What does a successful project do?
“Success is simply a matter of luck. Ask any failure.” Earl Nightingale
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Success Factors: Conception
Serves a good purpose• Solves a new problem
• Solves an existing problem better
Is motivated by self-interest• ...”got skin in the game”
Has a clear, basic objective
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
“Problem” matrix
AudienceImpact
Firefox
Gaim
Ross’s projectthat nobody
uses
phpMyAdminGallery
PDFCreator
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Success Factors: Design
Leverages:• Existing standards
• Common technology
Is extensible by design• There is a “jagged binding surface” for
contributers
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Success Factors: Process
Follows up with outside contributors• Closes out bugs, accepts patches, and
implements features quickly
Uses good, easily accessible tools• SCM, bug tracking, wiki, mailing list
Involves at least two developers• Can cope with defect/patch workload
Releases early and often
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Success Factors: Community
Attracts outsiders to contribute• Are the leaders willing to cede control?
• Are there plenty of things to work on?
Establishes groupies to monitor lists
Gets enough evaluators to ensure meaningful feedback
Accepts criticism graciously
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Case Studies:Up-and-Comers
“A sobering thought: what if, at this very moment, I am living up to my full potential?”
Jane Wagner
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
How did I dig these up?
Quantitative filters:• Registered on SourceForge.net between
03/2006 and 11/2006 (19108)
• Achieved an 80-100% activity level (5611)
• Made more than one file release (2469)
• Consists of more than two members (291)
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
How did I dig these up?
Qualitative analysis:• The purpose must be clearly defined and
audience size and impact must be sufficient
• The design should leverages currently accepted technologies
• Administrators must be responsive and helpful
• There should be ample opportunity to participate
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Introducing: Seagull
Seagull• Started in March of 2006
• Purpose:
• Command-line multiprotocol traffic generator
• Audience:
• Quality assurance, network, and software engineers wanting to load-test
• Technologies / Standards
• Diameter, TCAP, XCAP, HTTP, Radius
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Seagull: Development
Seagull• Developers: 7
• Commits: 200 (past 9 months)
• Releases: 4 total
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Seagull: Consumption
0
175
350
525
700M
ay 2
006
Jun
2006
Jul 2
006
Aug
200
6
Sep
2006
Oct
200
6
Nov
200
6
Dec
200
6
Jan
2007
Release
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Seagull: Observations
Seagull• Built primarily for telecommunications, but can be
easily adapted for new purposes.
• Developers can contribute new protocols or scenarios
• Supported by HP
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Introducing: NetDirector
NetDirector• Started in March of 2006
• Purpose:
• Web-based systems management tool
• Audience:
• System administrators needing to manage large numbers of systems or virtual machines
• Technologies / Standards
• Java, Tomcat, PostgreSQL
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
NetDirector: Development
NetDirector• Developers: 5
• Releases: 4 total
• Average times...
• to close a bug: 34 days
• to close a feature request: 27 days
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
NetDirector: Consumption
0
375
750
1,125
1,500M
ar 2
006
Apr
200
6
May
200
6
Jun
2006
Jul 2
006
Aug
200
6
Sep
2006
Oct
200
6
Nov
200
6
Dec
200
6
Jan
2007
Release
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
NetDirector: Observations
NetDirector• They’ve picked a good problem:
• Virtualization is a trend, causing a potential increase in the number of systems that have to be maintained
• Remote maintenance is more efficient
• Contributors can make plugins to manage services
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Introducing: StatSVN
StatSVN• Started in March of 2006
• Purpose:
• Subversion activity analyzer
• Audience:
• Developers and leaders who want to understand what’s happening with their code
• Technologies / Standards:
• StatCVS, Java, Maven, Subversion
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
StatSVN: Development
StatSVN• Developers: 3
• Commits: 127 (past 4 months)
• Releases: 5 total
• Average times...
• to close a bug: 29 days
• to close a feature request: 11 days
• to close a patch: 2 days
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
StatSVN: Consumption
0
375
750
1,125
1,500O
ct 2
006
Nov
200
6
Dec
200
6
Jan
2007
Release
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
StatSVN: Observations
StatSVN• They have chosen a good problem:
• Subversion is gaining acceptance
• Everybody wants to know how much work is being done!
• The implementation is good
• Maintains local cache so it can be re-run
• Reports are attractive and useful
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
Introducing: ODF Converter
ODF Converter• Started in June of 2006
• Purpose:
• Allow Microsoft Word users to collaborate using the OpenDocument format
• Audience:
• Word users who work with non-Word users.
• Technologies / Standards:
• C#, ODF, XSL
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
ODF Converter: Development
ODF Converter• Developers: 22
• Commits: 1610 (past 8 months)
• Releases: 8 total
• Average times...
• to close a bug: 16 days
• to close a feature request: 6 days
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
ODF Converter: Consumption
0
8,750
17,500
26,250
35,000Ju
n 20
06
Jul 2
006
Aug
200
6
Sep
2006
Oct
200
6
Nov
200
6
Dec
200
6
Jan
2007
Feb
2007
Release
(c) Copyright 2007 OSTG, Inc.
ODF Converter: Observations
ODF Converter• Problem is good:
• OpenDocument is gaining acceptance
• Other word processing packages are becoming more mature
• Document sharing across different software packages is painful
• Some industry support - contributors include Microsoft and Novell