Spiral Calendar Magic

8/2/2019 Spiral Calendar Magic

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Spiral Calendar Magic

As you know Im an admirer of Chris Carolan who runs a pretty purist site for serious marketanalysts over at carolan.org. Chris is also the author of a book titled The Spiral Calendar

unfortunately its out of print as its some of the best work on time cycles I have come across.

Im sure some you long term readers probably recognize his name as Ive mentioned his SCmarket cycles in passing on several occasions.
http://carolan.org/http://carolan.org/http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/fibonacci1.jpghttp://carolan.org/


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Now, since the release of his book Chris has not been as prolific on the subject as I would

have liked. To his credit, he does make occasional mention of SC cycles over on his blog, some

of which I project into my own long term wave counts. However, I have not seen any in depth

review of more recent SC cycles, which is exactly why I have been putting quite a lot of timeinto parsing for them on my own. Yes, its a tedious job but someones got to do it why you

guys are out hunting poon and getting into trouble.

This weekend I will reveal my own SC chart one I have worked on for the past few

months. Quite franklythe spot on accuracy of the time cycles I was able to uncover surprisedmeeven after having read Chris book. This is not one to be missed, folks I even suggest you

print it out and plaster it on your wallwhich is why I have sized it up quite a bit.

If you have no clue what the Spiral Calendar market cycle theory is all about then point your

browser herefor a quick and dirty introduction. You may also try to get your hands on the book

yes, its out of print but there are still used copies in circulation.

There she isagain, you probably want to open it in a separate window on your largestscreen. If you have an iTamponits great for zooming in/out of charts. For your convenience Ihave included my personal cheat sheet so you can map the days for yourself. I believe I have

been pretty accurate in connecting tops and bottomswhen there was slippage I have added it to

the label. Which means that if you dont see any slippage the target date was hit spot on.
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13433http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13433http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13433http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2010-06-27_SC2.pnghttp://evilspeculator.com/?p=13433http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13433


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Before we talk about this chart I want to point out that it is not Chris Carolan approved.

Meaninghell probably see it for the first time himself and I hope he will decide to post somekind of response or rebuttal. I am probably not following his own rules to the teebut I believe

that its good enough for government work.

As you can see we are covering the last decade here. There are three very significant cycles thatstand out immediately. The first one is the F19 cycle connecting the 2/24/2002 low to the

10/11/2007 high. Slippage: -4 out of 1909 days! Thats 2/10th of one percent.

The second one that really blew me away is the F17 cycle connecting the 2/24/2002 low to the

3/9/2009 low. Slippage: -11 out of 2429 days. Thats 4/10th of a percent.

The third one is the F16 cycle connecting the 10/11/2007 high with the most recent 4/26/2010

high. Slippage: NONE out of 928 days. That is simply incredible to say the least.

Beyond those really big whoppers there are plenty of smaller ones I have highlighted. One I

should definitely mention is the F13 cycle connecting the 10/11/2007 high with the 1/05/2009high (final high before the final low in March). Slippage: +1 of 450 days. Again, that is 2/10th of

a percent.

Of course looking into the past is one thing. Projecting further out is where the rubber meets the

road unless I get to finish that damn time machine I have been working on (project received

financial backing by Michael J. Fox). Of course a major consideration I kept in mind whenattempting to arrive at candidates for future lows was my own wave count so, maybe this is a

bit biased. Remember that those cycles do not necessarily predict lows or bottoms just time

cycles. Its possible to connect lows with tops and the inverse.

However, if you like me believe that the market remains in a down trend (more about that furtherbelow) then there are two target dates that stand out. One of them is 10/1/2010. The second oneis 1/5/2011. The thin lines on my chart shows how I arrived at these two dates and I find them

realistic in the context of my current long term wave count.


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Which is shown on my long term Dow chart. I have taken the liberty to propose a

possible scenario for these two dates as part of the current Intermediate wave down. Now, its

very much possible that 1/5/2011 will be the end of Intermediate (2) instead of Intermediate (1).

Absolutely a possibility, and I wanted to make sure you all understand that this is but a simple

projectionone that could evolve into a variety of scenarios.

The astute reader may also notice that I have only labeled that entire drop as Intermediate(1)which may surprise you. Yes, I am not a believer in the double dip theory. What loomsahead is a large degree market correction no market participant has ever come close to

witnessing. Frankly I dont think we find a final bottom until the Dow touches at least the 3000mark. There will be spikes and snap backs in between but it wont change the final outcome.Be prepared mentally, emotionally, financially, and physically. Get out of debt now and

reduce your spending to a bare minimum.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2010-06-27_DJI.png


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I mentioned the long term trend above now lets look at some evidence. You know thischart by nowI introduced the SPXA50R a few weeks ago and it actually created a bit of a stir

even Yelnick mentioned it on his blog. The highlighted area shows us that we continue to drop,

which of course is bearish.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2010-06-27_SPXA50R.png


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Its more long term brethrenthe SPXA200R chart looks identicalas expected. Bearish.Despite the fact that we briefly pushed above the 200-day MA on the SPX during that blip up.

Remember what I told you about average vs. median and you will soon abandon this simple and

completely overused market indicator (which curiously still drives buy/sell decisions insidemany large fundsso much for advanced market analysis).
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2010-06-27_SPXA200R.png


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More medium term it was interesting to see a turn of the NYMO:BPNYA ratio chart to

be accompanied by an actual price swing as well. Almost feels like the good ole days (i.e.

2008). However, bear in mind that we could still trace out Soylent Green while this thing

descends so dont get complacent on a medium term basis. In any case theres much

downside momentum to burn off as that tiny spike up off the 5/25 lows managed to completelyburn off any upside potential on this chart. Which is what I meant a week ago by saying that the

bulls exerted a lot of energy getting the tape to that 1130 mark.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2010-06-27_NYMO_BPNYA.png


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I was pretty stoked when the gold/siver ratio turned exactly where I thought it would along with equities of course. Also interesting is that we are already pushing lower but are not

spiking up on the ratio. Which means more downside potential before we touch that green line

again.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2010-06-27_GS_ratio_SPX.png


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Short/medium term I see two (and a half) scenarios with the highest probability. I do

think were getting a little bounce here so, Soylent Orange probably takes us towards 1100before we continue downwards. Soylent Green is still a real possibility and if we push beyond

1120 then we most likely get a summer of pain before the fun for the bears starts.

Maybe now you appreciate why I am so stubborn about my long term puts and why I will

probably add more positions should we be so lucky to get another bounce into Soylent Green.

In my (not so) humble opinion: Long term this market is completely screwed the writing is onthe wall. I can see clear bearish signs on my momentum charts and when I correlate those with

my spiral calendar chart then I have a hard time imagining that we are going to make new highs

by October. Of course price is kind in the end and if we push up to levels that make P3 almost animpossibility then I will lick my wounds and adjust my projections accordingly. Thus far I see

very little reason to entertain any long term bullish scenarioif I do you will be the first ones to

know.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2010-06-27_count.png

Spiral Calendar Magic

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