The Scottish Parliament and Scottish Parliament Infor mation C entre l ogos .

SPICe Briefing

Election 2016 11 May 2016

16/34 Andrew Aiton, Ross Burnside, Allan Campbell, Tom Edwards, Greig Liddell,

Iain McIver, Alanis McQuillen

This briefing provides the result and analysis of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

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CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................. 3

THE RESULT ............................................................................................................................................................... 4

COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS SCOTTISH PARLIAMENTS ................................................................................. 5

STATE OF THE PARTIES ........................................................................................................................................... 8

OPINION POLLS ........................................................................................................................................................ 11

16-17 YEAR OLDS ..................................................................................................................................................... 13

THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM (FRANCHISE) ACT 2013 ................................................... 13 ISSUES CONCERNING YOUNG PEOPLE AND POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT .................................................... 13

COMPOSITION OF THE NEW PARLIAMENT .......................................................................................................... 14

MSPS WHO DID NOT STAND FOR RE-ELECTION ............................................................................................ 14 MSPS WHO LOST THEIR SEAT AT THE 2016 ELECTION ................................................................................. 16 NEW MEMBERS .................................................................................................................................................... 17 GENDER ................................................................................................................................................................ 20 CLASS OF 99 ......................................................................................................................................................... 21

TURNOUT .................................................................................................................................................................. 22

SOURCES .................................................................................................................................................................. 26

RELATED BRIEFINGS .............................................................................................................................................. 28

SB 11-29 ELECTION 2011 BRIEFING ...................................................................................................................... 28

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Scottish Parliament election, held on 5 May 2016, resulted in the SNP being the largest party with 63 MSPs, two short of an overall majority. The Conservatives were second with 31 MSPs, pushing Labour into third place with 24 MSPs. The Scottish Green Party with 6 MSPs overtook the Liberal Democrats who remain on 5 MSPs. Turnout in the constituency vote, at 55.6% was higher than at the last Scottish Parliament election (50.4%), but lower than the Scottish turnout in the UK General Election of a year ago (71.1%). Turnout in the regional vote was slightly higher than in the constituency vote (55.8%). On the constituency vote, turnout varied by region in Scotland, from 47.2% in Glasgow to 59.7% in West Scotland. Opinion polls published prior to the election tended to over-estimate the SNP share of the vote, but under-estimate the Scottish Conservative share of the vote. Extrapolating voter intentions in opinion polls nationally does not allow for specific local circumstances to be captured. As a result, pollsters find it difficult to translate share of votes into the actual number of seats won by a political party. For the first time, 16 and 17 year olds were able to vote in the Scottish Parliament election. Fifty one new Members were elected to the Parliament. Following the election female MSPs continue to make up 34.8% of total MSPs. Nineteen MSPs have served continuously since the first Scottish Parliament election in 1999.

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THE RESULT

The 2016 Scottish Parliament election produced the following result.

Figure 1: Election result (number of seats) by political party

Figure 2 shows the results by party in the constituency and regional vote.

Figure 2: Constituency and regional result by political party

This was the 5th election to the Scottish Parliament since devolution in 1999. Figure 3 shows results by party compared with the previous Scottish parliament elections in 2011.

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Figure 3: Result by Political Party, 2011 and 2016 elections (number of seats)

Turnout in the election was 55.6% in the constituency vote and 55.8% in the regional vote, up on the 2011 election, but down on both last year’s UK election (71.1%) and the Scottish independence referendum (84.6%). Figure 4 compares turnout to previous elections.

Figure 4: Comparative Turnouts (constituency, percentage)

COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS SCOTTISH PARLIAMENTS

Figures 5 to 8 show political party representation in the Scottish Parliament following each election going back to 1999.

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Figure 5: Composition of the Scottish Parliament since 1999

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Figure 6: Total Seats by Political Party since 1999

Figure 7: Constituency seats by Political Party since 1999

Figure 8: Regional seats by Political Party since 1999

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STATE OF THE PARTIES

The 2016 election resulted in the SNP being the largest party with 63 seats (-6 on 2011); the Conservatives in second with 31 (+16 on 2011); Labour on 24 (-13 on 2011); the Greens on 6 (+4 on 2011) and the Liberal Democrats on 5 (no change on 2011).

Figure 9: Change on 2011 in constituency share of vote by Political Party

In terms of the share of the constituency vote and the number of seats gained:

the SNP improved on its 2011 position by 1.1 percentage points with a gain of 6 seats;

the Conservative party increased its share by 8.1 percentage points gaining 4 seats;

Labour fell by 9.2 percentage points losing 12 seats;

the Liberal Democrats’ share of the constituency vote fell marginally by 0.1 percentage points, but their number of constituency seats increased by 2.

Figure 10: Change on 2011 in regional share of vote by political party

In terms of the share of the regional vote and the number of seats gained:

the SNP’s share of the vote fell by 2.3 percentage points which combined with its increase in constituency seats resulted in 12 fewer regional seats;

the Conservatives’ share of the vote increased by 10.6 percentage points with an overall gain of 12 seats;

Labour’s share of the regional vote fell by 7.2 percentage points losing 1 seat;

the Green Party increased its share of the regional vote by 2.2 percentage points gaining 4 seats;

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the Liberal Democrats’ share remained the same as in 2011 (5.2%), but translated to a fall in the number of regional seats of 2 due to the increased number of constituency seats won.

Compared with the 2011 result, the SNP lost 6 MSPs, the Conservatives gained 16, Labour lost 13, the Greens gained 4 and the Liberal Democrats remained the same on 5 seats.

Figure 11: Change by Political Party in total number of seats

Table 1: Total Votes and Seats by Party, 2016

Party Constituency Votes

Constituency Seats

Regional Votes

Regional Seats

Total Votes

Total Seats

SNP 1,059,897 59 953,587 4 2,013,484 63

Conservatives 501,844 7 524,222 24 1,026,066 31

Labour 514,261 3 435,919 21 950,180 24

Greens 13,172 0 150,426 6 163,598 6

Liberal Democrats

178,238 4 119,284 1 297,522 5

Others 11,741 0 102,314 0 114,055 0

TOTAL 2,279,153

73 2,285,752

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4,564,905

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Table 1 shows the number of constituency and regional votes cast for each party and the resulting number of seats won. Figures 12 and 13 detail the share of the constituency and regional vote for the political parties currently represented in the Scottish Parliament for each Scottish Parliamentary election held to date. Table 2 below shows the change in the vote for each of the parties currently represented in the Scottish Parliament between each election.

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Figure 12: Share of Constituency vote by Political Party, 1999-2016

Figure 13: Share of Regional vote by Political Party, 1999-2016

Table 2: Change in Political Party share of the vote by percentage point

99-03 difference 03-07 difference 07-11 difference

11-16 difference

Const Region Const Region Const Region Const Region

SNP -4.9 -6.4 9.1 10.2 12.5 13.0 1.1 −2.3

Cons 1.1 0.1 0.0 -1.6 -2.7 -1.5 8.1 10.6

Labour -4.1 -4.3 -2.5 -0.2 -0.5 -2.8 −9.2 −7.2

Green 0.0 3.3 0.1 -2.9 -0.1 0.3 0.6 2.2

LibDems 1.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.5 -8.2 -6.1 −0.1 0.0

Table 2 shows that the SNP has increased its share of the constituency vote in each election since 2003, however, its regional vote is down in 2016 compared with 2011. The Labour Party’s share of the constituency and regional vote has fallen in each election since devolution. In 2016, Labour were 0.6 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives in the constituency vote but took only 3 seats compared with the Conservatives on 7. The 3.5 percentage point difference between the Labour constituency and regional labour vote and the 3.8 percentage point difference between the Labour and Conservative regional vote was the key reason for Labour falling into third place. The Conservative Party had by far the largest gains in both constituency and regional vote, which translated into 16 additional seats compared with the 2011 result.

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The Liberal Democrats broadly matched their share of both the Constituency and Regional vote in 2011. However, victory in 4 constituency seats (+2 on 2011) was offset by 2 fewer regional seats. Combined, this resulted in the Liberal Democrats staying on 5 seats in total. The Green Party gained 4 seats due to an increase of 2.2 percentage points in its Regional vote.

OPINION POLLS

During recent elections to both the Scottish Parliament and the UK Parliament, opinion polls have been subject to criticism for not accurately predicting the final result. In Scotland in 2011, polls underestimated the size of the SNP regional list vote, and in the UK in 2015, polls predicted a hung parliament, rather than the resulting Conservative majority. This section of the briefing discusses opinion polls for the Scottish Parliament election in 2016.

Since the last Scottish election in 2011, the SNP have consistently been in the lead in opinion polls for both the constituency and regional vote, including during 2016 and in the campaign. However, during 2016, and especially during the campaign itself, the Conservatives began to draw ahead of Labour in the race for second place in some polls.

The figure below shows averages of the last 10 polls and the last 3 polls, compared to the final results.

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Figure 14: Opinion polls compared to final results – difference in percentages for each party

Source: ScotCen Social Research (2016) Note: As the Green Party only stood in three constituencies, their final constituency vote is not comparable to a

national share, so have not been included in the constituency figures here.

Overall, the polls underestimated the strength of the Conservative vote in both the constituencies and the regions, and overestimated the vote of the SNP. To a lesser extent, the other parties were underestimated on the constituency vote and overestimated on the regional vote. Polls conducted closer to the election result were more accurate. In terms of the average of the final three polls, except for the Conservatives, predictions for all parties’ share of the vote was within the standard +/-3% margin for error. Indeed, the final poll, from YouGov, with a larger sample size than normal, was the most accurate, but still underestimated the strength of the Conservative vote (although it was within the margin for error). YouGov discussed this final poll (YouGov 2016) and its new approach to sampling after the election. Rather than the percentages expressed in each poll, much of the press coverage surrounding opinion polls is concerned with what they mean when extrapolated into predictions of the breakdown of seats in the Parliament. Generally this is done by applying the national swings implied by the poll to each individual constituency and regional contest.

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Using this method, both the average of the last 10 polls, and the last 3 polls predicted an SNP majority, with the Conservatives in second place and the Greens beating the Liberal Democrats into fourth. However, national opinion polls cannot take into account local issues, and the profile of candidates standing in each seat. And, when the national election results themselves are applied on a uniform national swing basis to each seat, the SNP still receives a hypothetical majority, with the Conservative seats underestimated. Without constituency-specific polling, or much larger sample sizes, this will always be an issue for opinion polls.

16-17 YEAR OLDS

The Scottish Elections (Reduction of Voting Age) Bill was passed on 18 June 2015. All 16 and 17 year olds meeting the criteria for the electoral register are now eligible to vote in Scottish Parliament and local government elections. This has been the first Scottish Parliament election in which 16 and 17 year olds were eligible to vote.

THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM (FRANCHISE) ACT 2013

The former Cabinet Secretary for Parliamentary Business and Government Strategy, Bruce Crawford, indicated the Government’s support for reducing the age of eligibility for voting in all elections, as well as the independence referendum, in March 2012:

“The Scottish Government believes that reducing the voting age to 16 would encourage participation by young people in Scotland’s democratic processes and would give them a vote on matters that affect them. We support lowering the voting age to 16 for all elections – not just the independence referendum.”

(Scottish Government 2012)

The Scottish Government consulted twice on extending the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds before presenting the Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Bill. The main consultation, “Your Scotland, Your Referendum” from January 2012 to October (2012), provided 24,777 valid responses which were then analysed and published by the Scottish Government. The responses indicated that 56% “agreed” with the proposed age reduction and 41% “disagreed” with allowing 16 and 17 year olds to vote in the independence referendum. The Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Bill was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 27 June 2013. One of its main provisions was extending the franchise to allow 16 and 17 year olds a vote in the 2014 independence referendum. The referendum saw 109,593 16 and 17 year olds registering to vote, and studies from the Electoral Commission (2014) found that 75% of those surveyed voted.

ISSUES CONCERNING YOUNG PEOPLE AND POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT

A study conducted by the British cross-party think-tank, Demos (2014), revealed that the issues young people (those aged 16-25) are most concerned about are living costs, affordable housing, unemployment and the NHS. Areas which prompted least concern amongst young people across the UK were topics such as the EU, transport, tax avoidance and leisure facilities. What Scotland Thinks, a website analysing attitudes to how Scotland and the UK should be governed, published a poll from May 2014 that asked people aged 14-17 to what extent they agreed with the following statement:

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4%

8%

29%

36%

22%

Disagreestrongly

Disagree Neither agreenor disagree

Agree Agree strongly

“Sometimes politics and government seem so complicated that young people find it difficult to understand what is going on?”

The results, shown in figure 15, indicates that the majority of those asked (58%) either “agreed” or “agreed strongly” that this was the case, whilst only 12% either “disagreed” or “strongly disagreed”. Unfortunately we don’t have data for other age groups. Figure 15: Percentage of young people who agreed or disagreed with the above statement

(1,006 respondents. Source: What Scotland Thinks, 2014)

COMPOSITION OF THE NEW PARLIAMENT

The election of the fifth Scottish Parliament produced the third Parliament in a row where five parties were represented; unlike in the previous two Parliaments however, no independent Members were elected.

The number of female Members of the Parliament has remained at 45 and the number of ethnic minority Members has remained at 2.

The 2016 election saw Scotland’s youngest ever MSP elected when 21 year old Ross Greer won a seat in the West of Scotland region for the Green Party.

This section of the briefing looks at the composition of the new Parliament in more detail.

MSPS WHO DID NOT STAND FOR RE-ELECTION

Ahead of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, 24 Members announced they would stand down and not seek re-election. Amongst those stepping down was the Scottish Parliament’s Presiding Officer Tricia Marwick, the Presiding Officer during Session 3, Alex Fergusson and the former First Minister Alex Salmond.

The full list of Members who stood down is provided by alphabetical order in Table 3 (SPICe 2016a).

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Table 3: Members who stood down prior to 2016 election

Name Party Constituency Or Region

Marco Biagi SNP Edinburgh Central

Gavin Brown Con Lothian

Cameron Buchanan Con Lothian

Margaret Burgess SNP Cunninghame South

Malcolm Chisholm Lab Edinburgh Northern and Leith

Alex Fergusson Con Galloway and West Dumfries

Rob Gibson SNP Caithness, Sutherland and Ross

Annabel Goldie Con West Scotland

Hugh Henry Lab Renfrewshire South

Adam Ingram SNP Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley

Colin Keir SNP Edinburgh Western

Kenny MacAskill SNP Edinburgh Eastern

Tricia Marwick NPA Mid Fife and Glenrothes

Margaret McDougall Lab West Scotland

Jamie McGrigor Con Highlands and Islands

Fiona McLeod SNP Strathkelvin and Bearsden

Duncan McNeil Lab Greenock and Inverclyde

Nanette Milne Con North East Scotland

Graeme Pearson Lab South Scotland

Alex Salmond SNP Aberdeenshire East

Mary Scanlon Con Highlands and Islands

Dr Richard Simpson Lab Mid Scotland and Fife

Drew Smith Lab Glasgow

Dave Thompson SNP Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch

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MSPS WHO LOST THEIR SEAT AT THE 2016 ELECTION

In total, 26 MSPs lost their seat in the Scottish Parliament at the 2016 election. The breakdown by political party of these members is as follows.

Figure 16: Number of MSPs losing seat by Political Party

Table 4 below lists, in alphabetical order, the MSPs who lost their seat at the election (SPICe 2016a).

Table 4: List of Members not returned in 2016 election

Name Party Constituency Or Region

Christian Allard SNP North East Scotland (R)

Jayne Baxter Lab Mid Scotland and Fife (R)

Sarah Boyack Lab Edinburgh Central (C) Lothian (R)

Lesley Brennan Lab North East Scotland (R)

Chic Brodie SNP South Scotland (R)

Rod Campbell SNP North East Fife (C) Mid Scotland and Fife (R)

Nigel Don SNP North East Scotland (R)

Jim Eadie SNP Edinburgh Southern (C) Lothian (R)

Patricia Ferguson Lab Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn (C) Glasgow (R)

Cara Hilton Lab Dunfermline (C) Mid Scotland and Fife (R)

Jim Hume LD Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire (C) South Scotland (R)

Mike Mackenzie SNP Highlands and Islands (R)

Hanzala Malik Lab Glasgow (R)

Paul Martin Lab Glasgow (R)

Stewart Maxwell SNP Eastwood (C) West Scotland (R)

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Name Party Constituency Or Region

Margaret McCulloch Lab Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse (C) Central Scotland (R)

Alison McInnes LD North East Scotland (R)

Aileen McLeod SNP Galloway and West Dumfries (C) South Scotland (R)

Michael McMahon Lab Uddingston and Bellshill (C) Central Scotland (R)

Siobhan McMahon Lab Central Scotland (R)

Anne McTaggart Lab Glasgow (R)

Elaine Murray Lab Dumfriesshire (C) South Scotland (R)

John Pentland Lab Motherwell and Wishaw (C) Central Scotland (R)

Dennis Robertson SNP Aberdeenshire West (C)

Jean Urquhart Independent Highlands and Islands (R)

John Wilson Independent Central Scotland (R)

NEW MEMBERS

51 new1 Members were elected to the Parliament at the 2016 election to replace the 24 Members who chose not to seek re-election, the 26 Members who lost their seats and Margo MacDonald who died during Session 4.

The 2007 election saw 41 new Members elected and this rose to 48 new Members elected at the 2011 election.

Of the 51 new Members, 4 have previously served in the Scottish Parliament, Pauline McNeil, Mike Rumbles, Mark Ruskell and Shirley-Anne Somerville. The breakdown by political party of new members is as follows:

Figure 17: New members by Political Party

1 Members who were not serving at the conclusion of Session 4 were considered to be new Members.

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Table 5 below lists, in alphabetical order, the new MSPs elected at the 2016 election (SPICe 2016b).

Table 5: New Members from 2016 election

Name Party Constituency Or Region

Tom Arthur SNP Renfrewshire South (C)

Jeremy Balfour Con Lothian (R)

Miles Briggs Con Lothian (R)

Alexander Burnett Con Aberdeenshire West (C)

Donald Cameron Con Highlands and Islands (R)

Finlay Carson Con Galloway and West Dumfries (C)

Peter Chapman Con North East Scotland (R)

Alex Cole-Hamilton LD Edinburgh Western (C)

Maurice Corry Con West Scotland (R)

Ash Denham SNP Edinburgh Eastern (C)

Mairi Evans SNP Angus North and Mearns (C)

Kate Forbes SNP Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch (C)

Jeane Freeman SNP Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley (C)

Jenny Gilruth SNP Mid Fife and Glenrothes (C)

Maurice Golden Con West Scotland (R)

Jamie Greene Con West Scotland (R)

Ross Greer Green West Scotland (R)

Rachael Hamilton Con South Scotland (R)

Emma Harper SNP South Scotland (R)

Alison Harris Con Central Scotland (R)

Clare Haughey SNP Rutherglen (C)

Daniel Johnson Lab Edinburgh Southern (C)

Liam Kerr Con North East Scotland (R)

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Name Party Constituency Or Region

Monica Lennon Lab Central Scotland (R)

Richard Leonard Lab Central Scotland (R)

Gordon Lindhurst Con Lothian (R)

Dean Lockhart Con Mid Scotland and Fife (R)

Fulton MacGregor SNP Coatbridge and Chryston (C)

Rona Mackay SNP Strathkelvin and Bearsden (C)

Ben Macpherson SNP Edinburgh Northern and Leith (C)

Ruth Maguire SNP Cunninghame South (C)

Gillian Martin SNP Aberdeenshire East (C)

Ivan McKee SNP Glasgow Provan (C)

Pauline McNeil Lab Glasgow (R)

Edward Mountain Con Highlands and Islands (R)

Oliver Mundell Con Dumfriesshire (C)

Douglas Ross Con Highlands and Islands (R)

Gail Ross SNP Caithness, Sutherland and Ross (C)

Mike Rumbles LD North East Scotland (R)

Mark Ruskell Green Mid Scotland and Fife (R)

Anas Sarwar Lab Glasgow (R)

Graham Simpson Con Central Scotland (R)

Colin Smyth Lab South Scotland (R)

Shirley-Anne Somerville SNP Dunfermline (C)

Alexander Stewart Con Mid Scotland and Fife (R)

Ross Thomson Con North East Scotland (R)

Maree Todd SNP Highlands and Islands (R)

Adam Tomkins Con Glasgow (R)

Annie Wells Con Glasgow (R)

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Name Party Constituency Or Region

Brian Whittle Con South Scotland (R)

Andy Wightman Green Lothian (R)

GENDER

The number of female Members of the Scottish Parliament remained the same at 45 following the election (SPICe 2016c). The breakdown of female Members by party and as a proportion of their party’s total is shown below.

Figure 18: Female MSPs by Political Party

In numerical terms, the total of female MSPs are as follows:

SNP – 27 (42.8%)

Labour – 11 (45.8%)

Conservative – 6 (19.3%)

Greens – 1 (16.7%)

The number of female MSPs elected at each Scottish Parliament election is provided in table 6.

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Table 6: Total number of Female MSPs by Election

Election Number of Female Members Elected

1999 48

2003 51

2007 43

2011 45

2016 45

As a percentage of overall Members, the number of women in the Scottish Parliament (34.8%) is slightly higher than the 29.4% (191 MPs) elected at the 2015 UK General Election.

CLASS OF 99

Following the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, there were 37 Members who had served continuously since 1999. In addition, a further 3 Members had served during all three sessions but not continuously.

As a result of the 2016 election, 19 Members have served continuously since 1999 and 2 Members have also served in the previous 4 sessions but not continuously2. Those Members who have served continuously since 1999 are shown in Table 7 below.

Table 7: MSPs serving continuously since 1999

Name Party Constituency Or Region

Jackie Baillie Lab Dumbarton (C)

Bruce Crawford SNP (Stirling (C)

Roseanna Cunningham SNP Perthshire South and Kinross-shire (C)

Fergus Ewing SNP Inverness and Nairn (C)

Linda Fabiani SNP East Kilbride (C)

Christine Grahame SNP Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale (C)

Fiona Hyslop SNP Linlithgow (C)

Alex Johnstone Con North East Scotland (R)

2 Richard Lochhead MSP resigned on 7 April 2006 to contest the Moray by-election which he won and was

returned on 27 April 2006. John Scott MSP was successful at the Scottish Parliament’s first by-election on 16

March 2000.

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Name Party Constituency Or Region

Johann Lamont Lab Glasgow (R)

Lewis Macdonald Lab North East Scotland (R)

Ken Macintosh Lab West Scotland (R)

Michael Matheson SNP Falkirk West (C)

Alex Neil SNP Airdrie and Shotts (C)

Shona Robison SNP Dundee City East (C)

Tavish Scott LD Shetland Islands (C)

Elaine Smith Lab Central Scotland (R)

Nicola Sturgeon SNP Glasgow Southside (C)

John Swinney SNP Perthshire North (C)

Sandra White SNP Glasgow Kelvin (C)

TURNOUT

The turnout figures in this paper are based on valid votes cast as a proportion of the electorate on 5 May 2016. Turnout data has been derived from returns from returning officers, election results on local authority websites and electorate data included in the Saturday 7th May edition of the Scotsman. Turnout at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election was 55.6% on the constituency vote and 55.8% on the regional vote, compared to 2011 turnouts of 50.4% and 51.1% respectively (turnout is based on the number of valid votes casts). Almost 290,000 more people voted in the 2016 election than in the 2011 election, including those in the recently enfranchised 16 and 17 year old age group. Although considerably lower than turnouts during both the 2015 UK General Election (71.1%) and the 2014 Independence Referendum (84.6%), the 2016 turnout is the highest seen at a Scottish Parliament election since 1999. Table 8 below details turnout for both the constituency and regional vote for each electoral region, and for Scotland as a whole. As can be seen, turnout level varied considerably by region, for example on the constituency vote the variation was from 47.2% in Glasgow to 59.7% in West Scotland. Table 8: Turnout by Constituency and Regional Vote, 2016

Region Constituency Vote Regional Vote

Central Scotland 52.9% 52.9%

Glasgow 47.2% 47.4%

Highlands and Islands 58.9% 58.9%

Lothian 57.6% 57.8%

Mid Scotland and Fife 58.2% 58.3%

North East Scotland 52.8% 53.0%

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Region Constituency Vote Regional Vote

South Scotland 58.8% 58.9%

West Scotland 59.7% 59.8%

Scotland 55.6% 55.8%

Table 9, below, compares turnout at the 2016 election with turnouts at the four previous Scottish Parliament elections. Glasgow’s turnout has always been the lowest in Scotland, never quite reaching the 50% mark. However, turnout in Glasgow increased by 6.5 percentage points between May 2011 and May 2016, thus reversing the declining trend seen since 1999. Table 9: Turnout (Based on the Constituency Vote), 1999-2016

Region 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016

Central Scotland 59.4% 48.5% 50.5% 48.0% 52.9%

Glasgow 47.9% 41.5% 41.6% 40.7% 47.2%

Highlands and Islands 61.2% 52.3% 54.7% 53.4% 58.9%

Lothian 61.1% 50.5% 54.1% 54.8% 57.6%

Mid Scotland and Fife 59.3% 49.7% 52.8% 52.0% 58.2%

North East Scotland 54.5% 48.3% 50.7% 48.8% 52.8%

South Scotland 61.7% 52.3% 53.6% 53.0% 58.8%

West Scotland 61.5% 53.3% 56.5% 53.1% 59.7%

Scotland 58.2% 49.4% 51.7% 50.4% 55.6%

The constituencies with the highest and lowest levels of turnout are detailed in Table 10 below. Turnout was highest in Eastwood (at 68.3%). This was also the case in 2011 when turnout in Eastwood was 63.2%. The lowest turnout in 2016 was in Glasgow Provan at 42.9%. This was considerably higher than the lowest turnout in 2011 when the same constituency saw a turnout of 34.8%. As can be seen in Table 10, six of the ten constituencies with the lowest turnout levels were located in Glasgow. Table 10: Highest and Lowest Turnout by Constituency (on the Constituency Vote), 2016

Highest Turnout % Lowest Turnout %

Eastwood 68.3 Glasgow Provan 42.9

Edinburgh Western 64.5 Glasgow Shettleston 43.7

Edinburgh Southern 64.2

Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn

44.0

North East Fife 63.0 Glasgow Pollok 45.5

Perthshire North 62.7 Glasgow Kelvin 45.7

Strathkelvin and Bearsden 62.6 Aberdeen Central 46.7

East Lothian 62.3 Glasgow Southside 47.8

Shetland Islands 62.1 Banffshire and Buchan Coast 48.5

Orkney Islands 62.0 Airdrie and Shotts 49.3

Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch

61.3 Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

50.1

The largest increases in turnout between 2011 and 2016 were seen in North East Fife, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands. Although every constituency across Scotland saw an increase in turnout since 2011, the lowest percentage point increases were seen in Linlithgow, Edinburgh Eastern and Na h-Eileanan an Iar.

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Figure 19: Turnout by constituency

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Figure 20: Change in turnout from 2011 by constituency

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SOURCES

McGrath, F. (2013), ‘Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Bill – SPICe Briefing’. Available online: http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_13-18.pdf [Accessed 4 May 2016]. ScotCen Social Research. (2016) What Scotland Thinks. Available at: http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls [Accessed 6 May 2016]

Scottish Government (2012), ‘Bruce Crawford. Question 7 – Votes for 16 & 17 year olds.’ Published 26 March 2012. Available online: http://www.scotreferendum.com/2012/03/question-7-votes-for-16-17-year-olds/ [Accessed 9 May 2016] Scottish Government (2015) ‘Scottish Elections (Reduction of Voting Age) Bill, explanatory notes’. Available online: http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_Bills/Scottish%20Elections%20(Reduction%20of%20Voting%20Age)%20Bill/b66s4-introd-en.pdf [Accessed 4 May 2016]

SPICe (2016a) Fact Sheet: MSPs not Standing or not Returned in the 2016 Election. Published 9 May 2016 Available online: http://www.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/MSPs_Not_Standing_or_Not_Returned_in_the_2016_Election.pdf [Accessed 10 May 2016]

SPICe (2016b) Fact Sheet: New MSPs 2016. Published 9 May 2016 Available online: http://www.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/Factsheets/New_MSPs_2016.pdf [Accessed 10 May 2016]

SPICe (2016c) Fact Sheet: Female MSPs: Session 5 Published 9 May 2016 Available online: http://www.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/Female_MSPs_S5.pdf [Accessed 10 May 2016]

The Electoral Commission (2014), ‘Scottish Independence Referendum - Report on the referendum held on 18 September 2014’. Available online: http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/179812/Scottish-independence-referendum-report.pdf [Accessed 4 May 2016] YouGov. (2016) YouGov's accurate election polls show our new methods are working. Available at: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/election-polls-new-methods-working/ [Accessed 10 May 2016]

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RELATED BRIEFINGS

SB 11-29 Election 2011 briefing

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