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![Page 1: “Sphere of R&D and innovation in Russia: analysis of the status and forecast of development” Ms. M. Motova, Head of Sector, Ms. Т. Chinaeva, leading researcher.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cea5503460f949b5290/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
“Sphere of R&D and innovation in Russia: analysis of the status and forecast of development”
Ms. M. Motova, Head of Sector, Ms. Т. Chinaeva, leading researcher
Centre for Science Research and Statistics (CSRS), Federal Institution «Research Institute – Federal Research Center for Project Evaluation and Consulting Services»
(SRI FRCEC), Ministry of education and science, Russian Federation
International Conference “Scientific and Technological Innovation: National Experience and International
Cooperation”29-31 May, 2013
ICSTI Headquarters
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Main problems determining the condition of R&D human
resources
1. Reduction in R&D personnel
2. Decline of its quality
3. Widespread secondary employment
4. Decreased inflow of higher education graduates
5. Outflow of young personnel
6. Ageing of R&D personnel
7. Decline of the prestige of research activities
8. Break in the succession of generations
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Stages of reduction in R&D personnel
Period Main characteristics of the stages
1991 – 1998 1. Drastic and implacable reduction in the number of R&D personnel (2-fold)
2. Secondary employment3. Brain drain
1999 – 2001 1. “Reverse wave” 2. Enhancing personnel misbalance, including the ageing of the
R&D contingent, lack of young personnel, and structural violations
3. Reducing number of medium-aged scientists
2002 – – present 1. A new stage of the outflow of personnel from the S&T sector 2. New phenomena: – Emergence of numerous small and fragmentary short-term
subjects with the participation of a great number of scientists ;– Strengthening stratification among researchers ;– New features of the mobility of personnel .3. Brain drain from the young contingent of scientists 4. Some return of scientists from abroad (mostly programmers)
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Main problems of funding of S&T activities
Lack of a complex scientifically based funding system
Shortage of funds Poor management of cash flows
Consequences:
– Lack of interrelationship between funding and output
– Impossibility to ensure full-value activities of R&D institutions
Consequences:
– Crisis in human resources– Insecurity of operation costs– Low level of remuneration
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20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015
esti-esti-matemate
forecastforecast
at current pricesat current prices ((billion roublesbillion roubles))
169,9169,9 196,3196,3 230,8230,8 288,8288,8 371,1371,1 431431,,11 485,8485,8 523,4523,4 610,4610,4 720,7720,7 796,7796,7 896,0896,0 1000,21000,2
% of the previous year at comparable prices% of the previous year at comparable prices
110,4110,4 96,196,1 98,898,8 108,3108,3 112,8112,8 98,198,1 100,9100,9 96,596,5 100,7100,7 108,9108,9 105,6105,6 105,4105,4 104,0104,0
% % of GDPof GDP
1,291,29 1,151,15 1,071,07 1,071,07 1,121,12 1,041,04 1,251,25 1,161,16 1,121,12 1,181,18 1,201,20 1,211,21 1,211,21
Domestic R&D expenditure:Dynamics and short-term forecast
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Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by source of funds: 2011/2010
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D +0,7 %
own funds of R&D institutions +33,5 %
government -4,1 %
non-budget funds -25,0 %
business enterprise sector -0,02 %
higher education sector 2,7 times
private non-profit sector 1,5 times
funds from abroad +21,6 %
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R&D funds by main source of funding (increase against the previous year at comparable prices)
Budget funds Own funds of organizations
Funds from the business enterprise sector
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Average salary in R&D(2012 – estimate, 2013-2015 – forecast)
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Economic parameters of the progress of the R&D sector: 2015 *
Scenarios Domestic expenditure as % to
GDP
Salaries in R&D Employment in R&D
Inertial 1% 1% 1,3-1,5 times above the national average
Reduction against 2007 by 20%
Export-oriented (energy and raw materials)
1,9-2%,including 1% due to private companies
Nearly 90,000 roubles
Number of researchers – 348,2
thousand(2007 – 392,8
thousand)
Innovative 2,5-3%,including 50% of total
expenditure due to private companies
4-fold growth in real terms, and 1,5-2 times above the national average
Growth against 2007 by 6%
* Osnovnye parametry sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossijskoj Federatsii do 2020–2030 godov/ Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitija. Moscow, 2008.
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Forecast for R&D expenditure
2015 as % to 2011I – 1.1II – 3.2III – 4.8IV – 1.3
1. 201. 142. 001. 120
5%
I Inertial scenario
II Export-oriented (energy and materials) scenario
III Innovative scenario
IV Extrapolation forecast
As % of GDP
9
1276,1
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R&D personnel and average salary forecast: 2015
Inertial scenario
Export-oriented
(energy and raw
materials) scenario
Innovative scenario
Extrapolation forecast
R&D personnel (thousand)
2015 as % to 2011
665,5
87,4
705,4
92,7
847,3
111,3
716,0
97,4
Average salary (thousand)
2015 to 2011 at comparable prices (-fold)
70,8
1,9
87,7
2,4
134,5
3,7
46,4
1,3
2011
R&D personnel (thousand) – 735,3
Average salary (thousand) – 28,4
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Growth of domestic R&D expenditure by source of funds (2015 to 2011 at comparable prices)
Inertial scenario
Export-oriented
(energy and raw
materials) scenario
Innovative scenario
Extrapolation forecast
Total 1,1 3,2 4,8 1,3
Budget funds 1,1 1,5 2,3 1,2
Own funds of R&D institutions 1,3 3,8 5,7 1,5
Funds of organisations in the business enterprise sector 1,2 7,6 11,4 1,3
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Intramural R&D expenditure by source of funds
2015
Budget funds
Own funds of R&D institutions
Funds of organisations in the business enterprise sector
Other sources of funds
Inertial scenario Export-oriented (energy and raw
materials) scenario
Innovative scenario Extrapolation forecast
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Forecast for appropriations for S&T
Indicators Scenario 2015 compared to 2011 (-fold)
Appropriations for civil S&T
I
II
III
IV
1,6
1,4
2,1
1,1
2012 compared to 2008 (-fold) – 1,4
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Problem: Deformation of the age-specific structure of R&D personnel and ageing of research teams
Year below 29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 and over Total
2000 10,6 15,6 26,1 26,9 20,8 100
2002 13,5 13,8 23,9 27,0 21,8 100
2004 15,3 13,0 21,9 27,8 22,0 100
2006 17,0 13,1 19,0 27,8 23,1 100
2008 17,6 14,2 16,7 26,3 25,2 100
2010 19,319,3 16,216,2 14,714,7 24,024,0 25,825,8 100100
Including:
Doctors of science 0,1 1,8 10,3 28,4 59,4 100
Candidates of science 4,8 16,8 16,9 26,1 35,2 100
Researchers by age group (per cent)
Source: calculated by CSRS basing on Russia’s Rosstat data
Despite some increase in the number of researchers aged below 40, speaking of it as a steady trend (especially during the crisis) is still too early.
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Calculation of specialities’ rating based on an expert survey
The rating was calculated on the basis of:• the proportion of experts who had mentioned the demand for
training of candidates/doctors of science for this speciality in the total number of experts believing that this speciality is related to a surveyed priority area;
• an average mark reflecting the relationship of this speciality with a surveyed priority area.
Specialities' rating by priority area
458 449418
374345
409459 437
367318
0
100
200
300
400
500
Information andtelecommunication
systems
Living systems Environmentalmanagement
Nanosystems industry andmaterials
Power generation andsaving
Candidates of sciences Doctors of sciences
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Forecast for graduates from postgraduate and doctoral studies with dissertations defended by field of science and technology
Graduates with dissertations defended:
2010
Forecast for graduates with dissertations defended:
2015
Growth rate for graduates with dissertations defended(2015 to 2010), per cent
Postgraduate studies
Total 8831 11426 129,4
Including fields of science and technology:
Law 560 779 139,1
Biology 404 515 127,4
Agriculture 247 312 126,4
Pharmacy 33 42 126,2
Veterinary 81 102 125,8
Engineering 1652 2069 125,2
Physics and mathematics 376 469 124,7
Medicine 1087 1307 120,2
Chemistry 244 276 114,4
Doctoral studies
Total 297 376 127,7
Including fields of science and technology:
Agriculture 7 15 207,3
Medicine 13 23 174,2
Law 10 16 164,3
Engineering 71 91 128,7
Chemistry 12 14 120,3
Physics and mathematics 24 29 119,8
Biology 8 9 112,5
Veterinary - - -
Pharmacy - - -
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Forecast for enrolment of postgraduate and doctoral studentsby field of science and technology
Number of students in 2010
Forecast for the number of students in 2015
Growth of the number of students(2015 to 2010), per cent
Postgraduate studies
Total 147674 156335 105,9
Including fields of science and technology:
Law 11770 13834 117,5
Pharmacy 382 448 117,3
Engineering 34324 36588 106,6
Medicine 10368 10898 105,1
Veterinary 1103 1156 104,8
Agriculture 3690 3850 104,3
Biology 6861 7083 103,2
Chemistry 3098 3162 102,1
Physics and mathematics 7157 7106 99,3
Doctoral studies
Total 4242 4114 97,0
Including fields of science and technology:
Veterinary 11 17 154,5
Law 111 128 115,3
Agriculture 113 113 100,0
Biology 167 164 98,2
Engineering 1100 1064 96,7
Medicine 232 221 95,3
Physics and mathematics 300 274 91,3
Pharmacy 8 7 87,5
Chemistry 127 112 88,2
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Thanks for attentionThanks for attention