Speech Of His Excellency LT GENERAL NIRBHAY SHARMA … · Page 1 of 57 Speech Of His Excellency LT...

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SpeechOf

His ExcellencyLT GENERAL NIRBHAY SHARMA

PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, VSM (RETD),

GOVERNOR,MIZORAM

On the occasion of

Joint Capsule for Army, Navy and Air Higher CommandCourses

AtArmy War College, Mhow

On19th February, 2018

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Ladies and gentlemen, I am happy to deliver this

address to a large cross-section of the officers on the

armed forces on the subject, “India’s North East as theCornerstone of It’s Act East Policy : Challenges and the

Road Ahead”.

The essence of questions which have often engaged

our minds are:-

-Why is it that the North East continues to bebackward and unstable despite all efforts of thelast 70 years?

-What is holding up unlocking of huge potential of

North East?

-Can ‘Act East’ policy succeed withoutdevelopment of North East, as a chain is as strongas its weakest link?

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-Is North East only a land bridge to transit to SEAsia and beyond or it has to be more than that?

-What should be our interplay with the immediate

and extended neighbourhood of North East,particularly with the ever increasing shadow ofChina?

You will agree that these questions have many

dimensions and there are no easy answers. So,

drawing a clear distinction between desirability and

doability. I will share my thoughts touching on the

broad contours and then look forward to valuable

inputs from you all.

Layout

I will start by recapitulating the strategic canvas,look at the vital essentials in terms of connectivity,

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security and socio economic integration and moveon to discuss the way ahead.

OverviewTaking a strategic overview, let me bring in the factor

of geography first, which is a vital canvas to draw the mapof subject under consideration. Here I will start with theTibetan plateau which is extremely important to theworld’s water cycle as approximately two billion peopledepend on the rivers fed by the plateau’s glaciers. Thevital river basins of India and China from Ganga to theYellow River to Mekong are fed by the Tibetan Plateau.These glacial rivers owe their origin to a commonsource and thus sustaining human civilizations ofthese two countries and also South East Asia at large.It is along these rivers that the civilisations grew and tradeand commerce flourished. Leaving the Indus RiverRegion out for the present, let us examine theGanga-Tsangpo/ Brahmaputra-Mekong region. It has anatural socio-economic connectivity encompassing

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eastern India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China(Yunnan), Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.

In the mid-19th century, Burma and the adjacentstates and provinces of India and China were home toperhaps 12 million people in total. Today the same area,from India’s Assam across Myanmar and China’s Yunnan, is home to over 150 million. Next door isBangladesh and India’s West Bengal with another 230million people combined, and on the other side China’sSichuan Basin, with 80 million more as well as the 30million-strong mega-city of Chongqing. The forests inbetween that were once almost impenetrable are nowgradually going. Frontiers are being pushed up againstone another like never before and countries are findingnew neighbours.

The parts of China and India that are being drawntogether are amongst the most far-flung regions of the

two countries, regions of unparalleled ethnic and linguistic

diversity, of forgotten kingdoms and isolated upland

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societies, that were, until recently beyond the control of

Delhi or Beijing.

In the overall context, we are looking at 25% ofworld’s population, which is resource rich, but

under-developed landmass, part of and within the areaof influence of two strategic giants i.e. China and India.

North East at a GlanceNorth Eastern States, as you know, comprise

Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya,

Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim. Barring Sikkimit is linked to rest of India through a 22 km long SiliguriCorridor. 98% of border is bounded by international

neighbours namely Nepal, Bhutan, China (Tibet), Myanmar

and Bangladesh. The region is overwhelming tribal,originating out of confluence of people from East, West and

North of Indo-Aryan, Austro-Asiatic and Tibeto Burman

culture. The economy of the region is essentiallyagricultural and infrastructural deficit is acute.

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It’s population is 40 million which represents 3.1%of the total Indian population. It is more than the

population of South Africa, Myanmar, Argentina,Poland, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Australia andNetherlands. The total area of North East is 2.62 lakhs

sq. kms. i.e. about 8% of total of India’s size and roughly

3/4 of the size of the State of Maharashtra. It is larger than

UK and almost equal to Netherlands.

This is where the comparison ends and NorthEast’s all round backwardness takes over, despite allthe ingredients of prosperity. Tibet, our immediate

neighbour in the North has done much better. With a population of 3 million and an area of 1.2 millionsq. Km., its GDP, according to Chinese sources, is

more than $ 13 billion with an annual increase of 12.1%.Although still affected with socio-economic inequality, per

capita income of urban residents is $ 3722. An industry of

US $ 2.7 billion, it welcomes 12 million tourists year onand increasing. At another level, we are also cognisant

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of the fact that not only roads, but even Chineserailway lines are now touching Nepal, Sikkim and

Arunachal borders.

Among all the North Eastern states, only Assamhas an industrial base and elaborate transportnetworks. It is the largest economy contributing about 60%

of North East’s GDP. The state produces more than 65%of country’s tea which is appreciated globally for itsaroma. Assam also maintained trade links with the

neighbouring countries in different phases of its history. Thepartition of the sub-continent in 1947 inflicted damageto the economy of North East as the rail, road and

waterways which existed throughout the colonialperiod, were closed one after another. The hugepotential in terms of clean energy, tourism, agriculture

and industry remains mostly untapped within NorthEast and the immediate neighbourhood. Whenunleashed, it will be a game changer to say the least.

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Look – Act East Policy

Let me now link this geographic construct of NorthEast and its immediate neighbourhood to our ‘LookEast Policy’. This policy was born out of economic

necessity and desire to engage with the successfulASEAN economies. It is now upgraded to ‘Act EastPolicy’ which is wider in scope, geographically

covering the entire breadth of the Asia –Pacific region,while keeping ASEAN at the core. Its sight is beyond

economic integration and includes political – security and

socio-cultural dialogue at a deeper level in a multipronged

manner at various regional forum and ‘one on one’

platforms.

Its focus is on soft power, cooperation withregional and sub regional bodies and the important role

of the diaspora. Issues of demography, food security,

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space etc are the new frontiers. As the new namesuggests, it is more action driven and result oriented.

North East is a land bridge to India’s immediate

and extended neighbourhood i.e. between South Asiaand South East Asia, within its 1000 sq miles reside25% of world’s population. It is therefore a natural

partner to “Act East Policy” and occupies a prominentposition in India’s cooperative agenda with the ASEAN. Huge economic and developmental

benefits will also accrue for NE in enhancingengagement and connectivity with ASEAN. Our policytowards our neighbours has to largely run parallel with

our policy of development of our North-East which

focuses on socio-economic development, increasing trade,

investment etc, through connectivity with our

neighbourhood and extended neighbourhood.

In this regard, Shri Pranab Mukherjee, the formerPresident of India says, “geography is opportunity and

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the very geographical location of the North East makesit the doorway to South East and East Asia and vice

versa, a doorway to economies into India.” Therefore,

these States form a gateway from India into large partof South East Asia, with Myanmar forming a land

bridge and Bangladesh providing an opening into theIndian Ocean. Similarly, the Ladakh region apart from

being sandwiched between China and Pakistan is a

gateway to Central Asia. Therefore, in the strategic sense,

these are as much platforms of opportunities as that ofconcern.

Demographic relationship is another aspect that Iwould like to highlight. In that the ancient linkages with

Tibet, Myanmar and also Thailand through human

migration over the ages must be noted. Likewise, Buddhism

spread from India to various segments of different cultures,

particularly in Asian countries. However, these factors

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cannot be the basis of a Nation-State as religious andcultural affinity is beyond borders.

ASEAN –India Connectivity Initiatives

Lack of connectivity is the biggest hurdle to the

development in the region and is holding up unlockingof vast economic potential of the region. It is a strategicpriority for India as the land bridge to the larger eastern

neighbourhood.

The recent push by the Indian Government to ‘ActEast’ first demands developing connectivity within itsimmediate area of economic inter-dependence (i.e.

enabling Nepal, Bhutan and Northeast to access ports),enhancing regional/global markets by expandingcapacities at Chittagong, Haldia and Mangla ports and

creating a multi transportation model. The economic

benefits that will accrue from this are phenomenal.

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For example, transportation cost of medium

land-locked countries is 42% higher than the medium

coastal economy. Halving transport cost increases trade

volume by a factor of five. Today, a container takes

anything from 20 to 60 days to move from New Delhi to

Dhaka, as it has to go by rail/ road to Mumbai, than a

maritime route via Singapore/ Colombo to Chittagong and

then by train to Dhaka. By direct rail connectivity it could

have just taken three to four days. Likewise, Tripura is just

75 km from Chittagong port and the alternative to it is a

1645 km land route from Kolkata. Here, more than thebearing cost of connectivity is the danger of using

transit rights as bargaining chips. In that choosingpolitical animosity instead of regional economicintegration is, both bad politics and bad economics.

It also figures prominently in the cooperative agenda

with the ASEAN. India is one of the only two Dialogue

Partners that share both land and maritime boundaries with

ASEAN countries. Therefore the need to enhance our

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connectivity with ASEAN in all three aspects- physical,institutional and people-to-people.

With a view to converting these corridors of

connectivity into corridors of economic growth, specialfacility for project financing and quick implementationof connectivity projects between the North East and

ASEAN are a must. With a provision of US $ 1 billion over

10 year period, it will seek to catalyse Indian private sector

investment to the tune of US $ 10 billion, for connectivity

projects and the building of back-end linkages in India’s

North-East and along our eastern coast.

One of the sub-grouping of this policy is BIMSTECi.e. Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technicaland economic cooperation. It comprises seven members

– Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Thailand

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and Nepal. It is a link between South Asia and SouthEast Asia and straddles between SAARC and ASEAN.

The critical elements for the future and promotion

of BIMSTEC spirit are economic integration,connectivity, energy, security and people to peopleexchanges. It provides enabling environment for rapid

economic development through identification and

implementation of specific cooperation projects between

members. Since its inception in 1997, BIMSTEC

has focussed on mutual interests and common concern of

member countries. It is to be noted that China is not apart of this grouping.

•The Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project is akey project for providing alternative connectivity to theNorth East via South East Asia. It envisages connectivityfrom Indian ports to Sittwe Port in Myanmar, and thereaftervia road and riverine link to Mizoram. From Sittwe Port inMyanmar, transportation will be through riverine more (158km on river Kaladan) and from Paletwa in Myanmar to

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Zorinpui at the India-Myanmar border, by road (109 km).The project will thus provide an alternate access route tothe North-Eastern region of India. The physical progressof the project in Mizoram as on 31.12.2017 is 70%.•Another significant project under the ASEAN-IndiaConnectivity initiative is the India-Myanmar-ThailandTrilateral Highway, which, when completed, will provide

seamless road connectivity over a 1360 km stretch from

Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand. The possibility of

its further extension to Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam is also

being explored and would transform the face of the region.

The proposed TTA will also take care of the softconnectivity issues and will allow seamlesstransportation of goods and persons across theborders.The work has already commenced by upgradation of 69

Bridges, including Approach Roads on theTamu-Kyigone-Kalewa section of the TrilateralHighway. The estimated time for completion of the project

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is 3 years from the date of mobilization at the project site. ADelhi-Hanoi Rail link envisaged in 2003 by the Bajpai

government is also being pursued.The Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) is also a

sub regional grouping launched in 2000 by six

countries i.e. India and five ASEAN countries, namely,Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. It islooking at cooperation in tourism, culture, education, as well

as transport and communications. Both the Ganga and the

Mekong are civilisational rivers, and the MGC initiative aims

to facilitate closer contacts among the people inhabiting

these two major river basins. The MGC is indicative of the

civilisational, cultural and commercial linkages amongthe member countries of the MGC down the centuries.

Enhancing air connectivity of the North East withASEAN countries is also on the agenda. The PM hasmade a specific request in this regard to the SingaporePresident during his visit to India. Thai Airways is alsocontemplating a Bangkok-Mandalay-Guwahati service.

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Opening up of Myanmar, Thailand and Beyond

We also need to note that Bay of Bengal is not abackwater, but a strategic hub, providing us options to

skirt both Siliguri corridor and Bangladesh to accessNorth East. Trilateral project to build a sea/ landcorridor across Bay of Bengal from Chennai to Dawei

on the Southern tip of Myanmar and then on toBangkok is yet another viable proposition underexamination.

There are already ongoing projects alongside to

link with Myanmar, namely:-

•Rih-Tedim Project- An MOU for implementation of the

Rih-Tedim road connecting Mizoram with Myanmar, was

signed with the Government of Myanmar in December

2012.

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•Avangkhu-Leyshi road- Under the India-Myanmar MOU

on Border Area Development, our government has also

taken up the proposal for construction of roads in Myanmar

from the four points in Nagaland.

China has taken a huge lead in this regard with itsroad, rail, gas/ oil pipelines making it reach the Bay ofBengal with obvious manifold strategic and economicadvantages. Thailand, for instance, the second biggestinvestor in Myanmar after China, is forging ahead to alink with Andaman sea. Japan is also not far behind inrevitalising Myanmar. India has to crank in these inputs inthe overall strategic and economic calculations toreinvigorate its sub regional groupings.

BCIM-ECBangladesh-China-India –Myanmar Economic

Corridor (BCIM-EC) is another ambitious grouping toenhance and economically integrate world’s twolargest and fastest growing economies with two least

developed economies. Set up mainly on China’sinitiative in 1999, is a four nations endeavour, to create

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a US $ 22 b fund. Almost 55% funds are likely to come from

multilateral development partners, rest by four governments

and private sector. In that US $ 700 m are required for

connecting Myanmar and India. Its Thematic Areas are

Connectivity, energy, investment and financing, trade in

goods and services and trade facilitation, social and human

development, poverty alleviation, sustainable development

and people to people contact.

This project (K2K) aims to enhance connectivitythrough a main overland route, which could be

connected with a network of hubs and nodes in the region. It is 2800 km long and part of historic Silk

Route.

The alignment currently being examined in the Report

follows the route of the BCIM Car Rally of 2013: Kolkata –

Jessore – Dhaka – Sylhet – Silchar – Imphal – Kalay –

Mandalay – Ruili – Tengchong – Dali – Kunming. It will

cover 1.65 million sq km area and 440 million people,

connecting North East India, Bangladesh, Myanmar-South

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West China with road, rail airlines, water-routes and energy

pipelines to form a thriving economic belt with a trade

potential of US $ 132 b. In that Bangladesh is to prepare a

combined report on the framework of EC, India will work on

energy and trade, while China on connectivity and

investment.

It is a ‘work in progress’. Obviously, the success orotherwise of this initiative is dependent upon

India-China equations.

•Stillwell Road: The Still Well Road starts from Ledo in

Assam and links Kunming in China through the Pangsau

Pass in Arunachal Pradesh, on the India-Myanmar border.

This old road is shorter than K2K route, but the

Myanmar side has indicated that there may bedifficulties in investing their resources in the stretch inMyanmar. Considering that the road connects

Arunachal Pradesh to China through a disturbed areaof Myanmar, the project needs to be debated furtherfrom the aspects of viability of trade and

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sensitivity of China. To my mind, some day we shouldbe able to connect Kolkata to Kunming through this

route as well.Challenges in Building ConnectivityEven as there is huge potential for regionalconnectivity, there are several challenges in building

connectivity. The emerging geopolitics among majorpowers including India and China characterised bystrategic mistrust continue to affect the prospects of

building regional connectivity. The territorial disputesamong nations cast its shadow over the prospects of

opening up of the borders.

Furthermore, there are also issues regarding lack ofeffective implementation of connectivity projects, poor

infrastructure facilities and trade facilitation measuresat the border points that further add to the politicalcomplexities among nations. (In that BBIN, a sub

regional cooperation involving India, Bangladesh, Bhutan &

Nepal in the regions of power, water, connectivity & transit

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including a BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement for cargo and

passenger vehicles are being finalised.)

The challenge now is to build better connectionwithin and among countries for meeting basic needs

such as water, sanitation, electricity, transport, and

telecommunications, as well as for trade facilitation and

further integration of regional production networks.

The costs of addressing these infrastructure needsare huge. Asia will need to invest approximately US $ 8.22

trillion (in overall infrastructure for energy, transport,

telecommunications, water, and sanitation from 2010 to

2020, and about US $ 320 billion on more than 1,200

regional infrastructure projects in transport, energy, and

telecommunications.

Looking at different regions, it can be seen that East

and Southeast Asia together account for more than50% of the total required investment of Asia i.e. $ 4.11

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trillion. In East and Southeast Asia and Central Asia,

investment needs are highest in the electricity sector

(58.2% of required investment in East and Southeast Asia

and 44.7% in Central Asia), whereas in South Asia the

need is highest in the transportation sector (50.5%). In

some ways, these two can off set each other. Theuntapped economic potential of the core of this region,when realised, will not only mitigate the developmental

cost to quite an extent, but restore socio-economicbalance eg hydropower and tourism vs connectivity.Challenges of North East

North East is an ethnic mosaic and rich in naturalresources. But at the same time, it is considered as themost backward region of the country. The stakeholderstherefore raise questions on the impact on people, cultureand bio-diversity once North East’s borders are opened fortrade and transit particularly under the framework of theBCIM-EC. Many in North East believe that if suchconcerns are addressed properly, the region’sintegration with the fastest growing economies of

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southeast and East Asia will lead to an economicresurgence, otherwise, a ‘blow back’ effect is also apossibility. Thankfully, this issue is now receivingattention, which it had not, from the Indian governingelites for a long time.

In order to remove infrastructural bottlenecks,some major projects had been launched in the regionsince the late 1990s. But the people of North East areyet to be benefited from those as their implementationhas remained very slow. Factors such as chronicinsurgency, periodic political instability and rampantcorruption have also stood in the way of speedy completionof the projects.

To take the full advantage of trans nationalconnectivity, it was critical to first build local capacitiesand study export potentials in the border areas.Consultative mechanism is required to integrate India’s ActEast Policy with the requirement of North East, makingthem stake holders.

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Multidimensional connectivity i.e. land, air,waterways and digital is the first priority e.g. existing10,000 km of road in the North East are to be upgraded andanother 10,000 km added. Likewise, railway lines, air andwaterways need a quantum jump. Enhancement of TransBrahmaputra connectivity is yet another strategic andeconomic need. The terrain makes air connectivity notjust an option but an absolute necessity for tourismand economic development. (Road and Railways arehighly capital intensive and take long time to construct.)Streamlining the working of BRO under MoD to focuson borders and creation of NHIDCL by MoRTH areprogressive steps and will enhance our capacities. In thatNHIDCL is looking at constructing 10,141 km of roads inthe North East with an outlay of Rs.33,752 crores.

In this context, the most crucial pre-requisite isrealising the vital link between security anddevelopment. The main area of concern is the spill overeffect of socio-economic inequality and resultantinsurgencies. Language / ethnicity, tribal rivalry,

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migration, control over local resources and awidespread feeling of exploitation and alienation haveresulted in violence and diverse demands by variousIndian Insurgent Groups (IIGs).

The demands vary from sovereignty in some cases toindependent State of Homeland or simply better conditionsfor ethnic groups they claim to represent. The undergroundoutfits indulge in violent and terror activities and intimidatepeople with arms in order to achieve their objectives /demands. They maintain cross-border links, procure arms,recruit and train their cadres, and indulge-in unlawfulactivities such as damaging of public properties, bombexplosions, extortions, killing of innocent civilians, SecurityForces Personnel, attacks on/ abduction of Governmentemployees, politicians, and businessmen.

The ‘cause’ and ‘effect’ of this schizophrenicalienation of a part of North East have to be dealt withsimultaneously at a regional basis, cutting acrossnational boundaries. It is a vital component of our strategyand has utmost priority. It essentially boils down to goodgovernance amongst other things and requires lot of

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back log to be cleared by us. We may want to discussthis issue in more detail some other time.

You will agree that integration within North East isa prerequisite before the region could integrate withother countries. Although a common thread runsthrough the entire North East as a land mass, but onesize does not fit all and specifics of each part of NorthEast have to be identified and addressed appropriately.Ecological Issues

The other challenge is ensuring the preservation ofthe environment. The states of Northeast India are a partof eastern Himalayas known for its richness in waterresources and bio-diversity. The region is drained by twolarge river systems of the world, mainly the Brahmaputraand the Barak, which are trans-boundary in nature as theyflow through bordering countries. Trans-boundary issueslike building of dams by China and alleged attempts todivert the Brahmaputra River within that country havegiven rise to serious apprehension and concerns in theregion. Excessive melting of these glaciers due toclimate change poses a grave challenge to our survival,

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for it is wisely said that many of the wars of the lastcentury were about oil, but those of this century will beabout water.

The upstream-downstream interactions within theregion and with respect to the contiguous Himalayanareas are also contributing to the conflict scenario.Landslide dams getting breached or diffused andunwarranted release of water in Bhutan or Tibet cancause catastrophic floods in downstream areas inArunachal and Assam. These concerns have to beaddressed comprehensively. Lack of coordination andcooperation between countries sharing the river basinsis a major obstacle in resolving these problems.

Similarly, a significant decrease in precipitation inthe East Asia region is expected in the next 5-8 years.This poses significant problems of water diversion, giventhat the Tibet Plateau controlled entirely by China is thesource of all major East and South Asian river systems.From India’s perspective, while the water catchmentareas and the rainward areas are on our side, theinflows from Tibet are critical to recharging the aquifers

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in the lean seasons. Moreover, the quality of ground waterand availability of fresh good quality water is critical toIndia’s plans for shale gas extraction if and when this goesthrough. But the effects of such extraction– especially thelong term environmental impact is still not known.India’s China Policy

There is a view that the Indian policy towardsChina in the past was driven more by bureaucraticexpertise and military demands, than by political vision.Apart from the border problem, there are a number of otherirritants which include trade imbalance, issue oftrans-border river waters, stand on nuclear suppliers group,Security Council membership and China’s other disruptivepolicies. There are also common interests in the field ofenergy security, maritime security and climate change.India and China’s dreams of being strong, developedand prosperous nations are interconnected andmutually compatible. It is worrisome because Indiahas to bridge the gap across the whole spectrum of

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National capabilities vis-à-vis China. Thankfully, we arenow gaining some focus and momentum.

One pertinent question that needs to be raised andconclusively analysed is, how we deal with the issue ofsecurity in relation to the undefined and contestedborders and yet economically engage with each other.After all, security and development go hand in hand.Asia was once a much more connected continent andhad vibrant continental and maritime routes. Thesecircuits linked the entire region through which cultures,trade and commerce flourished. While India’s ‘SpiceRoute’ linked the littorals of the Indian Ocean, China’s ‘SilkRoad’ connected the entire continental Asia from China toCentral Asia to West Asia. Maritime routes also played acritical role in connecting the region within and without.

During the colonial period, the European rulers

attempted to connect Asia through roads, railways andmaritime routes with the aim to control and exploit theresources of Asia. For instance, if the British built railways

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that connected the whole of the Indian subcontinent, the

French built the rail line to link Indo-China with

south-western Chinese provinces.

Subsequently, we witnessed a period ofinward-looking, as new nation-states shifted their focus

to the task of nation building. The cold war politics ofthe time further divided nations and the ‘Great Game’played a significant role in shaping this part of Asia.

Towards the end of 20th century, the rise of globalisation

has opened up a new chapter for rapid economicgrowth with the prospects of recreating connectivity

across Asia. This can only be achieved by having matching

infrastructural capacities that will in turn balance thesecurity equation and as also enhance economicinter-dependence. It is then that we can hope to obtain acredible deterrence and yet exploit the opportunities thatawait us both. We must remember that our future shouldbe defined by cooperation and not by confrontation

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and the benefits of cooperation far outweigh anypresumed gains from containment.

Infrastructure development in the border regioncould impact in multiple ways. While it raisessuspicions and accentuates the possibility of conflictalong the border, it can also boost economic linkages.Revitalisation of old silk routes and the K2K/ Stilwell Roadare a few examples of this.

Building adequate military capability includinginfrastructure is also a must to ensure peace andenable negotiations on the boundary issue from a

balanced position. And this should be done without

beating drums to create a hype.

In the context of Arunachal Pradesh, irrespectiveof claims and counter claims there is a need to perhapsgo back to the pre-colonial period. There is a case to

look at the region without the present concept ofborders, wherein socio-economic factors coupled withdictates of geography made this part of the world truly

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trans-national. Only then can the entire region prosper. The local folklores and ethnic linkages also

support this hypothecs. However, for this dream to berealized a heavy political investment is necessary fromboth sides and more importantly, our capabilities in

terms of infrastructure and economic developmenthave to be enhanced and balanced. I am glad that thepresent government is working on strengthening

bilateral relations on the basis of our Prime Minister’svision as “Inch Towards Miles”.

Many questions however continue to be raised.Are the economic and security interests balanced and

ultimately what holds the key to this complexrelationship? Can the two of us break the logjam andalter the status quo of many decades or are we going

to leave it behind to ‘generation next’ to bear it?

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My short answer is that atmospherics is just rightand the moment has arrived. I am sanguine that the

present leadership of India and China, both have allthat it takes to pick up the gauntlet and display politicalwisdom and sagacity to seize the moment.

Government’s success in pushing through the landdeal between India and Bangladesh to streamline theborder augurs well and is a good omen.

Conclusion

Connectivity promotes development through

regional integration and enhances security. It generates

huge economy of scale and innovation from network

externalities. It promotes more efficient use of regional

resources and helps to narrow the development gap.

Contingent upon strengthening certain stretches of theKolkata-Kunming axis, India and China can bond

through K2K/ Stilwell Road and handle 20% to 25% ofbilateral trade. However, we will do well to remember

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that regional connectivity drives its value from itsweakest link and a chain is as strong as its weakest

link. I am specifically pointing at Bhutan, the Northeast,Bangladesh and Myanmar as a core area of attention.

This brings me to the end of my talk. May Iconclude by retreating that all round development of

North East is a prerequisite to our success in ‘Act East’endeavour. It is truly the backbone of Act East policy.We have to seize the opportunity of building regional

connectivity, and recognise that today’s opportunitymay not present itself in future. The regional

governments also need to find new ways and approaches

to find solutions to the vexed territorial disputes in the

interest of peace and prosperity of the entire continent. It is

a challenge to our collective leadership to cast awaythe old mindset and display a firm resolve to lookahead with a sense of obligation to our people in the

region.

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More importantly, our record of poorimplementation, has to be broken. A lot is happening in

this regard. The change is palpable. North East isgetting its due. You have one /two Cabinet Ministersvisiting the States every month. The NE Council and

MEA are interacting. The centre of gravity is graduallyshifting to the North East. But as Robert Frost wouldsay, “We have miles to go before we sleep.”

Thank you ladies and gentlemen for your attention. I

look forward to our continued interaction.

JAI HIND!

Ladies and gentlemen, I am extremely happy to be

amongst you this morning. My compliments to DGAssam Rifles and his team for conceiving and

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organizing this Seminar on a topic of greatrelevance. The galaxy of speakers and participants

indicates a rich fare and I am looking forward to the

deliberations, which I am certain will be quite enriching.

The topic for the first session is “InsurgencyMatrix of North Eastern States : Causative,

Political and Economic factors influencingSecurity Stability”. It is highly relevant and sets

the base for our discussions thereafter. Knowing

the level and expertise of participants, I will restrict

my talk to flag the core issues.

But before that, let me present to you a brief

historical perspective of the region since ithas an important bearing on the cause andeffect of the topic. As we all know, North East

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India is home to a number of tribes, numbering

around 213, speaking about 400 different dialects.

It is a confluence of the culture and people ofTibeto-Burman, Indo-Aryan and Austroasiatic

stock.

The region enjoyed autonomy prior to the

British, with the presence of political systemssuch as monarchy and chieftainship. Also,apart from mainland of India, it has to be

viewed in conjunction with the border regionsof our neighbouring countries, namely Nepal,

Bhutan, Tibet (China), Myanmar and Bangladesh,

as also the Bay of Bengal and beyond.

Prior to British rule in the North East, we know

that Ancient Assam was ruled by Kamarupa

kingdom (4th-12th century), and by the Ahoms

and other chieftains during medieval times

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upto the 17th century. During this period,

Ahom-Mughal conflicts took place, prominent

being the Battle of Saraighat (1671). It was

followed by the Burmese invasion of Assam in

early 19th century, which was followed by the

colonial period. The process of British rule in

the North East began with the Battle of

Yandaboo on 24th February 1826, when they

drove out the Burmese from Assam.

Initially, the British followed a policy of isolationand non-interference. However, the policy changedwith the prospect for tea industry and oil in Assam.

After 1826, the British made Assam a new division of

Bengal. In 1874, it became a province of British India.

Significantly, this new province included the Sylhet

region, which belonged to Bengal. The British felt it

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practical to administer Assam with the already

educated Bengalis. This was the genesis of movement

to Assam from Bengal.

Protection of economic interests was a key

factor leading to the annexation of the hilltribes. Manipur and Tripura, which were princely

states, were reduced to subordinate status.

Political control over Nagaland was established in

1878. Meghalaya was annexed in 1872-73, and

Mizoram was brought under control in 1889.

Arunachal Pradesh was administered by an

Assistant Political Officer posted at Sadiya in

1882.

Coming to the 20th century, the region witnessed

the start of conflict in the form of Insurgency.

Political consciousness among the Nagas began

with the participation of a few Nagas in World War

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I. As early as in 1918, the Naga Club was formed.

By 1929, the Naga leaders had submitted a

memorandum to the Simon Commission asserting

self-determination of their own future. This was

carried forward by the educated elites, and

eventually the Naga National Council declared

Independence on 14th August 1947, under the

leadership of Phizo. In 1975, the famous Shillong

Accord was signed, by which a section of the

NNC gave up arms. However, disgruntled factions

formed the National Socialist Council of

Nagaland. Subsequent tribal rivalries led to a split

into the NSCN (Isak-Muivah) and NSCN

(Khaplang) factions.

There were something like 13 Peace Accords

which were signed between 1949 and 2005 in the

North East. Out of these, the Mizo Accord of 1986

is the outstanding success story.

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Causative factors (political and economic)influencing security stability

Various measures adopted by the Britishsowed the seeds for the feeling of isolation

and exclusion amongst the North East tribals.The most obvious of these was the Inner LineRegulation. (The Bengal Eastern Frontier

Regulation introduced in 1873 was extended to

NEFA (Arunachal Pradesh) and the Naga Hills.

The Inner Line Regulation was enforced in the

Lushai Hills in 1896.) The Regulations restricted

contact between the hill tribes and the plainsmen,

and also aimed to curb clashes between the

British subjects and the tribals. This marked thebeginning of isolation of the North East tribes.They became effectively cut off from the

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political, economic and social development inthe rest of the country, including most

importantly, the National Freedom Movement.

(This policy of exclusion was followed by the

Government of India Act 1919, which gave the

Governor General-in-Council the authority to

declare any British territory as “Backward Tract”.

No Act of Indian legislature would apply to these

territories, which covered the Lushai Hills, the

Naga Hills and the North Cachar Hills. Regional

sentiments were reinforced, and the situation was

exacerbated by the creation of “Excluded Areas”

by the Act of 1935.)

Another development of immense significancewas the introduction of Christianity. Prior to the

British, the tribals were primarily animists and

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worshipped different forces of nature. The British

missionaries introduced Christianity in Mizoram,

Nagaland, Meghalaya and the hills of Manipur.

They took great initiatives in improving basic

amenities, such as health and hygiene. The

British introduced the Roman script in Mizoram

and Nagaland. Of particular importance wasthe introduction of education, as the newly

educated elites would play major roles in theformulation of ethnic nationalism. Christianityfostered a sense of difference from mainland

India, which was seen as primarily ‘Hindu’.

North East is ethnically, linguistically andculturally very distinct from the other states ofIndia. Though cultural and ethnic diversity per

se are not causes for conflict, but one of the

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major problem areas is that the Northeast isterritorially organized in such a manner that

ethnic and cultural specificities areaccentuated, giving rise to discontentmentand assertion of one’s identity. Also, the

colonial rulers took nearly a century to annex the

entire region, and administered the hills as a

loose ‘frontier area’, with the result, that large

parts of the northeastern hill areas never came in

touch with the principle of a centraladministration before.

Hence, their allegiance to the newly formedIndian nation-state was lacking from the

beginning – accentuated by the creation ofEast Pakistan (today’s Bangladesh) – which

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meant the loss of a major chunk of the physical

connection between mainland India and Northeast

India. Interestingly, 99 percent of theNortheast’s boundaries is international and

only one percent is domestic boundary. It is

therefore necessary that the region should nolonger be “boxed in” and breakout both within

and without, South East Asia and beyondincluded.

All these resulted in poverty, backwardness and lack of

good governance. It must be noted that the GDP of

North East pre-independence, prior to the policy of

economic exploitation and migration from Bangladesh,

was higher than that of mainland India.

All these issues perhaps explain, through briefly, the

background of the “cause” – political, economic and

social.

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What did we do

The government has faced criticism in the wayin which it has been looking at the Northeast

as an issue of territorial security rather thandevelopment per se. The fear of a growingChinese influence and inimical relation with

Bangladesh in the past have also cast theirshadow to reinforce this belief. In the words ofClemens Spiess, the various problems and

conflict constellations in the Northeast“represent(s) durable challenges to theintegrative and accommodative capacity of

Indian democracy”.

There is also a view thatpolitico-administrative arrangements made bythe Centre have also been lacking. For

instance, the introduction of the Sixth

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Schedule Autonomous Councils ended upcreating multiple power centers instead of

bringing in a genuine process ofdemocratization or autonomy in the region.Consequently, there are ten such Councils in the

region and many more demanding such status.

There have also been issues of political power play,

vested interests, and the militancy industry. All the

while, the centre of gravity also rested in Delhi, with

enormous dependance on Delhi for policies and

directions. These crutches require to be removed.

What we should do

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The conflict is one which is mired with complex

politico-economic issues. The following

approaches may be the way ahead :-

1. Politics of Identity :

The politics of identity lie at the heart of the bigger

part of the current conflict constellations in theNortheast. In this regard, the need of the day is tochange the narrative of States being synonymous with

ethnicity. Instead, these are to be seen only asadministrative boundaries.

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2. Apprehension of assimilation :

A distinction must be drawn between integrationand assimilation. The old apprehensions of the tribal

societies must be put to rest and I can do no betterthan quote Mahatma Gandhi, who said, “I do not wantmy house to be walled in on all sides and my windows

to be stuffed. I want the nations of all lands to be blownabout my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to bean interloper, beggar or slave.”

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3. Border Management :

We need a border management which is differentfrom policing. We should not look at it along the linesof the hostile/hard Indo-Pak border. We need to go

beyond to the other side, and help the Myanmar andBangladesh Governments in manning the borders ontheir sides. An economic powerhouse such as ours

may also actively develop the regions of thesecountries bordering our Nation, which will play a bigrole in stabilizing the border areas.

4. Insurgency :

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With regard to insurgency, the Union Governmenthas shown its willingness to enter into dialogue with

groups willing to abjure violence and place theirdemands within the framework of the Constitution.

In Assam, talks are going on with ULFA, while

Suspension of Operation (SoO) is in force with two factions

of the NDFB, as well as the Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation

Front (KLNLF).

In Meghalaya, the Memorandum of Settlement

between GoI, the State and the ANVC has led to the

group’s dissolution in 2014.

In Manipur, 23 underground groups under the umbrella

of the United Progressive Front (UPF) and the Kuki

National Organisation (KNO) are under SoO with GoI, and

political dialogue has commenced.

Two factions of the NSCN are currently under

ceasefire with GoI in Nagaland, while a framework

agreement has been signed with the NSCN (IM) in 2015.

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In Tripura, an MoU with NLFT (NB) resulted in a

socio-economic package of Rs. 64.63 crore, while dialogue

with the NLFT (B) is in progress at the State level.

All these developments have led to the visibledecline of insurgency in recent times. According to theMHA records, there were no extremist incidents in

Mizoram and Tripura in the first quarter of 2017, withdeclining trends also seen in Assam, Meghalaya andNagaland.

5. Box out – Act East :

The urgent need of the hour is connectivity in all

dimensions. Here, I must mention that the flying timefrom Aizawl to Mandalay is of a shorter duration than

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that of Aizawl to Kolkata or Delhi. We need to look atthe larger area 1000 kms all around the North East. The

region must develop not only as a transit, but aneconomic hub – fulfilling its huge potentials in power,minerals, agriculture, clean industry, tourism and so

on.

Conclusion

I am purposely not going into the specifics of each

State, as these will be covered in detail by

subsequent speakers. However, a regionalperspective is required for security anddevelopment, both being synonymous with

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each other. Here, I would like to lay specialemphasis on connectivity in all its dimensions

and effective border management along withdevelopment of human resource andmarshalling of economic potential of the

region on priority. Yet one size does not fit alland specific causative factors of each stateshould also be looked into. Only then North

East will ‘breakout’, so to say.

Overall, good governance and developmentremain the best antidote to insurgency and

militancy. While factors such as history, identity,

ethnicity and various others undoubtedly play

significant roles, social and economic upliftment of

the region is our best bet when it comes to finding

a long-term solution. The different militant

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groups of the North East must be convincedthat India, with the third largest economy in

the world in terms of PPP, and arguably themost tolerant Constitution, has enough roomfor all kinds of political and economic

aspirations.

This convincing is our immediate challengeand so is the need to develop North East as agateway to South East Asia and beyond,

rather than being an outpost of India.

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