SPECIMEN COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENT AND ANSWER … ·  · 2016-12-22993 Specimen 1 January 2017...

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993 Specimen 1 January 2017 SPECIMEN COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENT AND ANSWER 993 (Strategic risk management) The following is a specimen coursework assignment question and answer. It provides a guide as to the style and format of coursework questions that will be asked and indicates the depth and breadth of answers sought by markers. The answer given is not intended to be the definitive answer; well reasoned alternative views will also gain good marks. Before commencing work on an actual coursework assignment, you need to fully familiarise yourself with the following documents: Coursework assessment guidelines and instructions; How to approach coursework assignments; Explaining your results notification. Coursework assignments involve the application of knowledge to workrelated questions. They require you to explore issues in the workplace relevant to the unit for which you have enrolled.

Transcript of SPECIMEN COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENT AND ANSWER … ·  · 2016-12-22993 Specimen 1 January 2017...

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993 Specimen 1 January 2017

SPECIMEN COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENT

AND ANSWER

993 – (Strategic risk management)

The following is a specimen coursework assignment question and answer. It provides a

guide as to the style and format of coursework questions that will be asked and indicates the

depth and breadth of answers sought by markers. The answer given is not intended to be

the definitive answer; well reasoned alternative views will also gain good marks.

Before commencing work on an actual coursework assignment, you need to fully familiarise

yourself with the following documents:

Coursework assessment guidelines and instructions;

How to approach coursework assignments;

Explaining your results notification.

Coursework assignments involve the application of knowledge to work‐related questions.

They require you to explore issues in the workplace relevant to the unit for which you have

enrolled.

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Coursework submission rules and important notes

Before commencing on, or submitting, your coursework assignment it is essential that you fully

familiarise yourself with the content of Coursework assessment guidelines and instructions.

This includes the following information:

The maximum word limit for coursework assignments is 4,200 words.

Arial font and size 11 to be used in your answers.

Important rules relating to referencing all sources including the study text, regulations and

citing statute and case law.

Penalties for contravention of the rules relating to plagiarism and collaboration.

Deadline for submission of coursework answers.

There are 80 marks available per assignment. You must obtain a minimum of 40 marks

(50%) per assignment to achieve a pass.

The coursework marking criteria applied by markers to submitted answers.

Do not include your name or CII PIN anywhere in your answers.

Top tips for answering coursework assignments

Read the question carefully and ensure you answer all parts of the question.

Each assignment will be marked separately. You should treat each of your three assignment

answers as an independent answer.

For questions relating to regulation and law, knowledge of the UK regulatory framework is

appropriate. However, marks can be awarded for non-UK examples if they are more relevant

to your context.

There is no minimum word requirement, but an answer with fewer than 3,800 words may be

insufficiently comprehensive.

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Specimen Assignment

In September 2014, the UK supermarket giant Tesco plc (Tesco) “...stunned investors by

announcing that a whistleblower had alerted its most senior lawyer to over-optimistic

accounting for payments from suppliers and business costs. The group admitted it had

overstated its expected first-half profits by £250m”.

Source: Tesco to be investigated by FCA over accounting scandal. The Guardian

newspaper, 1st October 2014.

“The company’s admission that it had over-stated its half-year profits by £250m, has raised

questions about the composition of the company’s board of directors and the use of

inappropriate accounting policies. Prior to the appointment of two new non-executive

directors on 7 October 2014, Tesco’s board had no non-executive directors with retail

experience. This weakness in domain knowledge suggested the board was unlikely to have

the necessary knowledge and expertise to effectively question and challenge the company’s

executives.”

Source: Leadership Foundation for Higher Education, Governance issues at Tesco, October

2014.

Question

The above statements call into question the quality of executive-level decision making in the

Tesco organisation. Drawing from the above and more generally from management theory

and practice, evaluate how the recognition of risk and uncertainty in executive-level

decisions could be improved in insurance and other organisations.

Guidance

This question covers Learning Outcome 2 and to a lesser extent Learning Outcomes1 and 3.

Assignment Answer

Word count: 4,177

1. Introduction

The extracts quoted in the Assignment raise questions about the quality of decision making

by executives and the absence of effective challenge in the boardroom. In this answer, we

will open with an insurance and financial services example that will highlight that executive-

level decision making can go badly wrong in any organisation, not just Tesco. We will

review established theories of decision making from the most mathematically-based

approaches to those where the emphasis is on human behaviour. We will consider the

relevance of the now firmly established Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) approach and

this will figure large in our conclusions and recommendations.

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2. The case of American International Group, Inc. (AIG)

The importance of prudent behaviour in the financial industry was dramatically emphasised

by the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. This was essentially a banking crisis but one

major insurance group, AIG, suffered spectacular losses due to wrong decisions and is

therefore an important example for us to understand in relation to our consideration of

executive level decisions. One of AIG’s decisions was to accumulate a vast credit default

swap (CDS) portfolio of $526 billion (Sjostrum, 2009: p. 945). The loans that AIG guaranteed

were initially judged to almost risk free but by the end of 2007, AIG covered nearly $61 billion

in securities (loans) with exposure to the so-called ‘subprime’ mortgages. Subprime is

banking terminology for loans with poor quality security meaning a higher than normal

chance of default.

Such loans or mortgages were part of a property ‘bubble’ that began to burst, thereby

creating losses as the value of the securities AIG was guaranteeing deteriorated. AIG hoped

the securities would regain their lost value before they would be forced to pay up. But

additionally AIG had agreed to put up money if the value of the securities deteriorated or AIG

itself became less credit-worthy. AIG collapsed as a result and had to bailed out by the US

Government. What were the AIG executives and board thinking about when they made their

fateful decisions relating to the accumulation of the CDS portfolio? This leads us to our

consideration of decision making and its influencing factors and to a well-developed field of

academic research.

3. From Bernoulli to von Neumann & Morgenstern – early ideas about decision

making

To begin, we may briefly consider one of the earliest of the ideas proposed (by Daniel

Bernoulli in 1738) to explain how individuals make decisions under conditions of uncertainty

(i.e. ‘risky’ situations). Bernoulli’s Expected Utility Theory (EUT) centres on the size of a

payout or gain and the probability of its occurrence – hence its relevance to gambling and

insurance. The theory makes a distinction between a) the expected ‘benefit’ to an individual

(the ‘utility’ in the language of economics) and b) the strict mathematical expectation (or

probability). The theory helped to explain why an individual did not always make a decision

based on the most obviously rational outcome – the mathematical probability. In the 20th

Century, von Neumann and Morgenstern (2007) proposed that certain basic axioms

(assumed characteristics) had to be present to permit EUT to function as a theory for

predicting rational decisions under conditions of risk or uncertainty. The von Neumann-

Morgenstern theory says that whenever a rational individual takes a decision he will always

chose the option that maximizes his utility as long as the following four axioms are

satisfied:

i. Completeness assumes that an individual has well-defined preferences and can

always decide between any two alternatives. In choosing between option A or option

B, the individual either prefers A to B, or is indifferent between A and B, or prefers B to

A.

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ii. Transivity assumes that an individual also decides consistently. If there are three

options and A is preferred to B as well as B to C, then A is preferred to C.

iii. Independence also refers to well-defined preferences. The starting point is to assume

that option A is preferred to option B. Options A and B are then mixed with a further

option C. The Independence Axiom assumes that A is still preferred to B eve after the

involvement of C.

iv. Continuity assumes that there are three options (A, B and C) and the individual

prefers A to B and B to C. It further assumes that there should be a possible

combination of options A and C that is equal to option B. Putting this another way, we

could say that the individual is indifferent to choosing either the option A + C

combination or choosing the ‘equal’ option B.

Completely rational individuals are of course difficult to find in a real world setting. Most

decisions takers are either risk averse or risk preferring so for real world cases the expected

utility theory has limited applicability. In addition, there are problems applying EUT to

companies because they are not individual people. Although EUT is highly theoretical and

therefore limited in its practical use in explaining decisions at a corporate level, it is

nonetheless an important reference point in our understanding of decision making.

4. Using mathematical formulae and models to aid decision making

One approach that is widely used in the financial sector, though still subject to some

controversy, is the approach referred to as the ‘capital asset pricing model’ (CAPM):

In this model a company’s equity cost of capital equals the risk free rate of return plus

an individual risk premium . It explains shareholders’ demand for risk-adjusted

compensations. Without any risk in the world the shareholders’ compensation for supplying

the company with funds would be equal . Of course there is always risk. In this risk

premium there are two components, and . is also referred to the ‘beta’ factor

and explains the relationship between the movements of the asset return (usually share

price returns) and the market-wide portfolio’s return. It answers the question: ‘how much

does a company’s asset return change if the market portfolio’s return alters by 1%?’. The

higher the ,, the higher is the individual risk of a company (called idiosyncratic risk). It can

be assumed that a rational investor holds not just one company share in his portfolio, but

several companies. In this case, the idiosyncratic risk decreases due to this diversification.

Furthermore, there is a systematic risk factor .. Contrary to , represents the risk that

affects all companies at once (through macroeconomic factors). The second part of the risk

premium represents the excess return of the market portfolio over the risk-free rate

of return (Hull, 2012: pp. 8-9). Of course, there are assumptions to be satisfied in order to

apply the CAPM.

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Table 1: The assumptions of the CAPM

(Adapted from Hull, 2012, pp. 10-11)

Assumption

1 Rationality of investors

2 Independent residuals

3 Only one investment period

4 Lending and Borrowing at (the risk free rate of return)

5 No taxes

6 Homogenous expectations

The assumptions are unrealistic. (1) It has been shown that investors are more likely to be

risk averse or risk preferring than risk neutral. (2) The residuals (systematic risks) are not

independent, especially in the same industries (e.g. insurance industry). (3) The investment

periods of different investors are heterogeneous and not just one period for all investors. (4)

All investors can borrow at the risk-free rate of return, which would imply the absence of risk.

As mentioned above, risk is a multidimensional construct and affects every business.

Therefore, the lender always demands compensation for the risk exposure. (5) Assumption

five can easily be disproved, because there is no country in the world without taxes. (6) It is

also unrealistic to assume that all investors have homogenous expectations regarding asset

returns.

The CAPM may not be a perfect theory but it has proven to be a useful measure of risk to

aid investment decisions by highlighting the appropriate rate of investment return for different

levels of risk.

5. Cultural factors

Another factor that affects risk management decisions is ‘culture’. There is no common

standard of culture, but for this assignment questions the following definition is helpful: ‘... a

set of shared representations used by a group to think and act.’ (Specht, Chevreau and

Denis-Remis, 2006: p.525). Researchers have published several papers relating to the

influence of culture on the decisions of individuals and groups. The work of Douglas and

Hofstede is of particular importance.

Douglas (2007) explains cultural differences with two scales in her ‘grid and group cultures’.

The horizontal scale measures how much the culture/group controls the individuals. The

vertical scale measures how much control by the group the individuals accept. By combining

the two dimensions, four quadrants emerge (Figure1).

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Figure 1: Group and Grid Cultures (Douglas, 2007, p.2)

Isolate

Positional

Individualist

Enclave

The Isolate quadrant represents individuals who are not (or very weakly) influenced to act

by a specific group. The acceptance of control is relatively strong. People classifying for the

isolate quadrant are usually prisoners, very poor people or even strictly supervised servants.

Their life is characterised by a vast amount of structures or constraints (Douglas, 2007: p. 6).

The Positional quadrant explains cultures in which people belongs to a group and are

heavily influenced by it. All roles within it are allocated and behaviour is determined by rules.

Larger groups consist of several smaller groups, implementing a hierarchical state. An

example is the traditional Japanese family where the determinants of family life are arranged

by gender, age and timing (Douglas, 2007: p.4).

Individualistic cultures have a relatively weak form of ‘group and grid’ control. In such an

environment every individual is just concerned with his or her own wellbeing. In the absence

of wealth and power, this culture could be defined as egalitarian. But as soon as the

community drifts to wealth and power, the culture fails to realise the egalitarian aims.

(Douglas, 2007: p.6).

The enclave culture is characterised by a relatively high group control. Moreover, there are

almost no hierarchical structures between members. This group of people differentiates itself

from other groups – an example being sects. Sect leaders’ aims are often focused on

preventing their members from leaving the group. Hence, they malign all other groups

outside the sect (Douglas, 2007: p.5).

Several other models exist. For example, Janis’ (1972) ideas on the psychological

phenomenon of ‘groupthink’ that can occur within groups, where the desire for harmony and

or conformity in the group can result in potentially very irrational and destructive decision-

making outcomes. Groupthink was identified as a problem in many organisational failures,

including within some of the banks that were badly affected by the recent financial crisis (e.g.

HBOS and RBS). Arguably, this is very much part of a cultural problem and Hofstede

introduced five dimensions to characterise cultures.

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Table 2 Hofstede’s cultural dimensions

(Soares, Farhangmehr and Shoham, 2007, pp.280-281).

Dimension

1 Individualism – collectivism

2 Uncertainty avoidance

3 Power distance

4 Masculinity – femininity

5 Long-term orientation

The first dimension uses a similar approach to that of Douglas. In individualistic cultures,

individuals only care for themselves or their closest family. This is contrary to that in

societies characterised by collectivism where everybody belongs to a group that looks after

their members and their families. Hofstede, like Douglas, uses uncertainty avoidance (risk

aversion) to describe and distinguish cultural groups. The equality/inequality of cultures is

considered in Hofstede’s third dimension, power distance and masculinity/femininity of

cultures is measured in his fourth dimension. The values in more masculine countries are

achievement and success, whereas the values in more feminine countries are caring for

each other and life quality. The last dimension, long-term orientation, represents the

orientation towards future benefits and situations. On the other hand there are short-term

oriented cultures, in which their members only care about rewards in the near future. In the

literature, Hofstede’s dimensions are discussed as a “simple, practical, and usable” solution

to describe cultural differences (Soares, Farhangmehr and Shoham, 2007: p.238). The

possibility of applying cross-country comparisons is one of the major advantages of

Hofstede’s dimensions. On the other hand, Hofstede’s fifth dimension, long-term

orientation, is not widely accepted (Fang, 2003: p.354).

The cultural setting was a critical factor in the emerging financial crisis of 2007/2008. In the

years between 2001 and 2006 a risk-accepting collectivism evolved. Almost every market

participant thought that the housing boom would never end (Gorton, 2009: p. 31). For a

rational individual, this might seem odd. However, if everybody in a society/community, even

the government, thinks the house price boom would last forever, why would anyone resist

earning money from risky investments? This phenomenon is also called herding (Ashby,

2010: p.26).

6. Heuristics and risk perceptions

Another influence on the decision making by managers is the usage and application of

heuristics and risk perceptions. One critical factor in risk management is the gathering and

assessment of relevant data. In the financial services industry this is frequently done with the

help of computers in order to safeguard 100% accuracy and reliability. But sometimes these

processes take a huge amount of time and individuals tend to apply their own decision-

taking shortcuts in their head. Individuals look for relevant memories and assess them

internally. Of course these memories are not 100% complete. Instead of assessing the risk

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situation in a statistically correct way, the individuals apply certain best practice methods that

worked out in the past, also known as heuristics. Using heuristics to calculate insurance

premiums could cause prediction errors and therefore produce premiums that were too high

or low.

7. Remuneration-related factors

Another factor that drives risk management decisions is the remuneration of personnel who

are in charge of risk-taking decisions. Chorafas (2009) points out that the bonus system,

which was first implemented in the 1990s, became a pay-for-poor-performance system over

the years. Mangers were paid a vast amount of money for no apparent improvement.

Therefore, preposterous bonus payments created a vicious risk-taking attitude (Chorafas,

2009: p.195). There are more aspects to this issue of poor compensation structures than

greed and corruption. This is especially the case for financial institutions which interact in an

increasingly complex environment. Ashby (2009, p.9) showed that it is rather the structure of

the compensation that the bonus’ volume that matters in terms of risk taking. Hence, the

people interviewed in the study described the following flaws in remuneration systems:

The incentives led to a short-term and sales driven attitude in the financial industry.

The risk decisions had no down side risk for the mangers, as there were no negative

consequences regarding their salary. Therefore, managers could choose amongst

risky and less risky alternatives without any fear of losses.

The regulatory framework had severe flaws. There were simply no incentives for the

managers to implement an effective risk management system.

These issues created a business environment best described as moral hazard (Ashby, 2010:

p.22). Another contribution links the risk-taking decisions back to the state of the economy.

Raviv and Sisli-Ciamarra, (2013, p.66) write ‘Understanding how similar pay packages may

yield different risk levels under different economic conditions is crucial to designing

rcompensation packages...’. The link between the level of compensation for publicly held

insurance companies and the return on assets (ROE) was investigated. It appears that

executives in stock exchange listed insurers chose more effectively between investment

alternatives than did privately owned insurers. An explanation for this condition is that large

shareholders monitor executives’ decisions closely in order to adjust the remuneration to an

accounting based measure like the ROE (Ke, Petroni and Safieddine, 1999: pp.206-207).

8. Enterprise Risk Management

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has become a widely used framework for managing

risks in business corporations and for strategic decisions in the face of risk. Prior to the

emergence of ERM, the thrust for the development of risk management tended to be

negative, i.e. all about eliminating, reducing and transferring risk – often referred to an

insurance approach. The ERM philosophy is that business is all about risk taking and that

business should see risk management in the same way. Carroll (2010) sums it up as:

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‘Now is the time to see the management of risk as a holistic business process that is

inherent in every decision. As opposed to being seen to hold back enterprise, the

consideration and evaluation of risk, should be seen as enriching the quality of

business decisions. It is, however sensible to capture the risk evaluation alongside

the decision. You make the decision including the risk consequences, rather than

despite them.’ (Carroll, 2010, p12)

This broad concept of a holistic approach, that Carroll refers to above, has been refined into

various formal ERM frameworks that have been widely adopted in industry and commerce in

the developed nations and in international corporations (COSO, 2004; AIRMIC, Alarm, IRM,

2010).

A study by Arena et al. (2011) found evidence (in a panel of nine Italian companies from

different industrial fields and legislative settings) that the characteristics of ERM are now

routinely embedded in the managerial actions in firms. There is also a growing consensus

that the expense and effort of implementing ERM is worth it. An American study by Hoyt and

Liebenberg (2011) measured the extent to which ERM had been implemented in a group of

275 US insurance companies and the extent to which this had added value. They calculated

an ERM ‘premium’ of approximately 20%.

On the negative side, Mikes and Kaplan (2015, p29) argue that risk management

approaches are largely unproven and still emerging. They have identified the existence of an

‘ERM mix’. In some organisations it is embedded in ‘the formal planning and resource

allocation process and also influences key strategic decisions’. In others, they identified an

ERM focus on compliance and internal controls or merely as independent facilitators.

9. Recommendations on how to improve the quality of executive decisions

In recent years, several publications have contributed to an improvement of decision-taking

processes in boards. The Walker report on banks points out that out of date and uninformed

management opinions led to negative outcomes (Walker, 2009: p.37). Walker’s report (2009)

identifies certain approaches to improve the decision-taking process. The first and probably

the most important improvement would be to implement a working risk culture (Walker,

2009: p.92). A risk culture is generally defined as a culture ‘That enables and rewards

individuals and groups for taking the right risks in an informed manner.’ (The Institute of Risk

Management, 2012: p6). There are many features that characterise an effective risk culture,

but for the purpose of this answer, information flow is probably the most important. Effective

risk cultures encourage a constant information flow up and down the hierarchical layers of

the corporation – including negative news (Institute of Risk Management, 2012: p.6). In other

words, the Board and all other employees should aspire to a state of shared responsibility for

risks (Kirkpatrick, 2008: p.12). Whilst a bad or failed risk culture may be easily recognised

post-disaster, there is now a view that a unique ‘good risk culture’ does not exist (Power,

Ashby and Palermo, 2014). This may not, however, rule out the possibility of useful

preventative action by boards. Implementing a risk culture requires the Board to understand

its present state of risk culture first before it can ask the question, ‘how to achieve an

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effective risk culture?’ Finally, the Board should make proposals for implementation of a plan

to change the culture (The Institute of Risk Management, 2012: p.9).

As mentioned earlier, Walker (2009) concluded that the attitudes of executives are often

entrenched. Therefore, the first step to understand the risk cultural setting is probably the

most challenging. How can an executive (on the board) change something if they live with an

attitude of that they are already doing everything the right way? This question may best be

answered by substituting the heuristical behaviour of the board with significant risk

monitoring through an internal control system. Further, Eisenberg (1997, p.264) links the

internal control to the board in order to make the decision making function meaningful. In

order to understand the present risk culture, generating a snapshot of the risk situation of a

company is essential. Simons (1999, pp.86-92) introduced a scoring model, also known as

the risk exposure calculator (see figure 2 below).

Figure 2: The risk exposure calculator

(Simons, 1999, p.87)

In this model framework, three kinds of risks are considered: growth, culture and information

management. These categories consist of three risks each, forming nine relevant exposures

overall. After the assessment of the nine risks, the scores are added together to generate an

overall score. This score gives significant information on the state of a company’s risk

culture. By the means of a scale, three major states can be distinguished: the safety, the

caution and the danger zones. Especially in the light of Walker’s statement, this calculator

is meaningful because ‘executive resistance to bad news’ is included. An insurance

company board executive with a resistance to advice would therefore score a rather high

value.

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The culture scoring aims of Simons (above) have appeal but are possibly difficult to apply in

practice. Other ideas for aligning risk culture with good decision making continue to emerge.

For example, an understand of the trade-offs organisations face when attempting to

‘manage’ their risk cultures (e.g. balancing risk support for disciplined business decisions

against the risks of imposing excessive controls, or balancing ethics and incentives as levers

over behavioural change) could enable the ‘formulation of prescriptions, in the form of simple

questions for practicing managers and staff, which may be more useful and targeted’

(Power, Ashby and Palermo, 2013: p.34).

There are other ways of improving the decision-taking processes of boards of insurance

companies. One approach is the inclusion of Independent decision takers in the decision-

taking process. While executive directors are directly affiliated with the company, non-

executive directors are not employed in the company and therefore independent. As most of

the board members vote in line with the Chief Executive Officer (CEO), independent non-

executive members should be more able to vote against the CEO (Schwartz-Ziv and

Weisbach, 2013: p.363). Another approach would be to either propose training through

independent professionals or to invite risk professionals on to the board. Walker (2009, p.46)

strongly recommends business awareness sessions – especially for non-executive directors.

This can ensure a meaningful contribution to decisions from the non-executive directors. As

mentioned earlier, remuneration also plays a critical role in improving the decision-taking

processes. Risk-taking behaviours should be rewarded in an appropriate way, while

excessive risk taking/overly risk aversion should be avoided (Institution of Risk Management,

2012: p.15).

Walker (2009, p.105) also points out that the risk disclosure is a critical topic. Regulatory

frameworks like Basel II/III (for banks) and Solvency II (for insurance companies) oblige

institutions to disclose information on risk management. The extent to which this happens

depends on the legal framework of the relevant country (Hull, 2012: pp. 278-279). Walker,

however, proposes the disclosure of information regarding key risk exposures, the risk

appetite and tolerance as well as the dynamic assessment of the risk appetite. Generally,

risk appetite is defined as:

“The amount of risk, on a broad level, an entity is willing to accept in pursuit of value.

It reflects the entity’s risk management philosophy, and in turn influences the entity’s

culture and operating style. ...Risk appetite guides resource allocation. ...Risk

appetite [assists the organization] in aligning the organisation, people, and processes

in [designing the] infrastructure necessary to effectively respond to and monitor

risks.” (Rittenberg and Martens, 2012: p.3)

This definition shows the multidimensional characteristic of risk management (Haimes, 2009:

pp. 1647 and 1651). Risk appetite plays a critical role in risk management since it

determines major parts of a company’s strategy. For that reason, risk appetite requires clear

definitions, communication and a monitoring process (Rittenberg and Martens, 2012: p.1).

Monitoring ensures the required match between the company’s strategy and risk appetite. If

there are deviations, the risk appetite needs to be readjusted (KPMG, 2008, p.7). In addition

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to many others, one part of risk appetite is the risk tolerance – the setting of tolerance

ranges for risk exposures. This approach is often used to monitor and compare the actual

risk exposure with the defined risk appetite (KPMG, 2008: p.8). As Walker (2009, p.105)

implied, boards should focus on the definition of risk appetite and tolerance in order to

ensure meaningful and flawless decisions.

10. Conclusion

Earlier in this answer, it was concluded that expected utility theory is an unrealistic tool for

examining real world decisions in the insurance industry. In reality, there is a wide range of

factors that influence the executive-level decision-taking process. This concentration of

factors has created a highly complex environment for insurance companies (and other

organisations) to cope with. Thus, executive level decision takers are in need of workable

techniques to achieve more effective and prudent decisions. Some simple approaches exist,

such as the board composition as highlighted in the case of Tesco, and there are new

sophisticated ideas for developing a genuine risk management culture. Enhancing

professional training may help, for example by requiring professional membership of

institutes like the CII. Refining and fully implementing the ERM process currently appears to

offer the best hope for improving the adequacy of business decisions taken under conditions

of risk and uncertainty.

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