SPECIMEN COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENT AND ANSWER … · · 2016-12-22993 Specimen 1 January 2017...
Transcript of SPECIMEN COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENT AND ANSWER … · · 2016-12-22993 Specimen 1 January 2017...
993 Specimen 1 January 2017
SPECIMEN COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENT
AND ANSWER
993 – (Strategic risk management)
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Specimen Assignment
In September 2014, the UK supermarket giant Tesco plc (Tesco) “...stunned investors by
announcing that a whistleblower had alerted its most senior lawyer to over-optimistic
accounting for payments from suppliers and business costs. The group admitted it had
overstated its expected first-half profits by £250m”.
Source: Tesco to be investigated by FCA over accounting scandal. The Guardian
newspaper, 1st October 2014.
“The company’s admission that it had over-stated its half-year profits by £250m, has raised
questions about the composition of the company’s board of directors and the use of
inappropriate accounting policies. Prior to the appointment of two new non-executive
directors on 7 October 2014, Tesco’s board had no non-executive directors with retail
experience. This weakness in domain knowledge suggested the board was unlikely to have
the necessary knowledge and expertise to effectively question and challenge the company’s
executives.”
Source: Leadership Foundation for Higher Education, Governance issues at Tesco, October
2014.
Question
The above statements call into question the quality of executive-level decision making in the
Tesco organisation. Drawing from the above and more generally from management theory
and practice, evaluate how the recognition of risk and uncertainty in executive-level
decisions could be improved in insurance and other organisations.
Guidance
This question covers Learning Outcome 2 and to a lesser extent Learning Outcomes1 and 3.
Assignment Answer
Word count: 4,177
1. Introduction
The extracts quoted in the Assignment raise questions about the quality of decision making
by executives and the absence of effective challenge in the boardroom. In this answer, we
will open with an insurance and financial services example that will highlight that executive-
level decision making can go badly wrong in any organisation, not just Tesco. We will
review established theories of decision making from the most mathematically-based
approaches to those where the emphasis is on human behaviour. We will consider the
relevance of the now firmly established Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) approach and
this will figure large in our conclusions and recommendations.
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2. The case of American International Group, Inc. (AIG)
The importance of prudent behaviour in the financial industry was dramatically emphasised
by the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. This was essentially a banking crisis but one
major insurance group, AIG, suffered spectacular losses due to wrong decisions and is
therefore an important example for us to understand in relation to our consideration of
executive level decisions. One of AIG’s decisions was to accumulate a vast credit default
swap (CDS) portfolio of $526 billion (Sjostrum, 2009: p. 945). The loans that AIG guaranteed
were initially judged to almost risk free but by the end of 2007, AIG covered nearly $61 billion
in securities (loans) with exposure to the so-called ‘subprime’ mortgages. Subprime is
banking terminology for loans with poor quality security meaning a higher than normal
chance of default.
Such loans or mortgages were part of a property ‘bubble’ that began to burst, thereby
creating losses as the value of the securities AIG was guaranteeing deteriorated. AIG hoped
the securities would regain their lost value before they would be forced to pay up. But
additionally AIG had agreed to put up money if the value of the securities deteriorated or AIG
itself became less credit-worthy. AIG collapsed as a result and had to bailed out by the US
Government. What were the AIG executives and board thinking about when they made their
fateful decisions relating to the accumulation of the CDS portfolio? This leads us to our
consideration of decision making and its influencing factors and to a well-developed field of
academic research.
3. From Bernoulli to von Neumann & Morgenstern – early ideas about decision
making
To begin, we may briefly consider one of the earliest of the ideas proposed (by Daniel
Bernoulli in 1738) to explain how individuals make decisions under conditions of uncertainty
(i.e. ‘risky’ situations). Bernoulli’s Expected Utility Theory (EUT) centres on the size of a
payout or gain and the probability of its occurrence – hence its relevance to gambling and
insurance. The theory makes a distinction between a) the expected ‘benefit’ to an individual
(the ‘utility’ in the language of economics) and b) the strict mathematical expectation (or
probability). The theory helped to explain why an individual did not always make a decision
based on the most obviously rational outcome – the mathematical probability. In the 20th
Century, von Neumann and Morgenstern (2007) proposed that certain basic axioms
(assumed characteristics) had to be present to permit EUT to function as a theory for
predicting rational decisions under conditions of risk or uncertainty. The von Neumann-
Morgenstern theory says that whenever a rational individual takes a decision he will always
chose the option that maximizes his utility as long as the following four axioms are
satisfied:
i. Completeness assumes that an individual has well-defined preferences and can
always decide between any two alternatives. In choosing between option A or option
B, the individual either prefers A to B, or is indifferent between A and B, or prefers B to
A.
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ii. Transivity assumes that an individual also decides consistently. If there are three
options and A is preferred to B as well as B to C, then A is preferred to C.
iii. Independence also refers to well-defined preferences. The starting point is to assume
that option A is preferred to option B. Options A and B are then mixed with a further
option C. The Independence Axiom assumes that A is still preferred to B eve after the
involvement of C.
iv. Continuity assumes that there are three options (A, B and C) and the individual
prefers A to B and B to C. It further assumes that there should be a possible
combination of options A and C that is equal to option B. Putting this another way, we
could say that the individual is indifferent to choosing either the option A + C
combination or choosing the ‘equal’ option B.
Completely rational individuals are of course difficult to find in a real world setting. Most
decisions takers are either risk averse or risk preferring so for real world cases the expected
utility theory has limited applicability. In addition, there are problems applying EUT to
companies because they are not individual people. Although EUT is highly theoretical and
therefore limited in its practical use in explaining decisions at a corporate level, it is
nonetheless an important reference point in our understanding of decision making.
4. Using mathematical formulae and models to aid decision making
One approach that is widely used in the financial sector, though still subject to some
controversy, is the approach referred to as the ‘capital asset pricing model’ (CAPM):
In this model a company’s equity cost of capital equals the risk free rate of return plus
an individual risk premium . It explains shareholders’ demand for risk-adjusted
compensations. Without any risk in the world the shareholders’ compensation for supplying
the company with funds would be equal . Of course there is always risk. In this risk
premium there are two components, and . is also referred to the ‘beta’ factor
and explains the relationship between the movements of the asset return (usually share
price returns) and the market-wide portfolio’s return. It answers the question: ‘how much
does a company’s asset return change if the market portfolio’s return alters by 1%?’. The
higher the ,, the higher is the individual risk of a company (called idiosyncratic risk). It can
be assumed that a rational investor holds not just one company share in his portfolio, but
several companies. In this case, the idiosyncratic risk decreases due to this diversification.
Furthermore, there is a systematic risk factor .. Contrary to , represents the risk that
affects all companies at once (through macroeconomic factors). The second part of the risk
premium represents the excess return of the market portfolio over the risk-free rate
of return (Hull, 2012: pp. 8-9). Of course, there are assumptions to be satisfied in order to
apply the CAPM.
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Table 1: The assumptions of the CAPM
(Adapted from Hull, 2012, pp. 10-11)
Assumption
1 Rationality of investors
2 Independent residuals
3 Only one investment period
4 Lending and Borrowing at (the risk free rate of return)
5 No taxes
6 Homogenous expectations
The assumptions are unrealistic. (1) It has been shown that investors are more likely to be
risk averse or risk preferring than risk neutral. (2) The residuals (systematic risks) are not
independent, especially in the same industries (e.g. insurance industry). (3) The investment
periods of different investors are heterogeneous and not just one period for all investors. (4)
All investors can borrow at the risk-free rate of return, which would imply the absence of risk.
As mentioned above, risk is a multidimensional construct and affects every business.
Therefore, the lender always demands compensation for the risk exposure. (5) Assumption
five can easily be disproved, because there is no country in the world without taxes. (6) It is
also unrealistic to assume that all investors have homogenous expectations regarding asset
returns.
The CAPM may not be a perfect theory but it has proven to be a useful measure of risk to
aid investment decisions by highlighting the appropriate rate of investment return for different
levels of risk.
5. Cultural factors
Another factor that affects risk management decisions is ‘culture’. There is no common
standard of culture, but for this assignment questions the following definition is helpful: ‘... a
set of shared representations used by a group to think and act.’ (Specht, Chevreau and
Denis-Remis, 2006: p.525). Researchers have published several papers relating to the
influence of culture on the decisions of individuals and groups. The work of Douglas and
Hofstede is of particular importance.
Douglas (2007) explains cultural differences with two scales in her ‘grid and group cultures’.
The horizontal scale measures how much the culture/group controls the individuals. The
vertical scale measures how much control by the group the individuals accept. By combining
the two dimensions, four quadrants emerge (Figure1).
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Figure 1: Group and Grid Cultures (Douglas, 2007, p.2)
Isolate
Positional
Individualist
Enclave
The Isolate quadrant represents individuals who are not (or very weakly) influenced to act
by a specific group. The acceptance of control is relatively strong. People classifying for the
isolate quadrant are usually prisoners, very poor people or even strictly supervised servants.
Their life is characterised by a vast amount of structures or constraints (Douglas, 2007: p. 6).
The Positional quadrant explains cultures in which people belongs to a group and are
heavily influenced by it. All roles within it are allocated and behaviour is determined by rules.
Larger groups consist of several smaller groups, implementing a hierarchical state. An
example is the traditional Japanese family where the determinants of family life are arranged
by gender, age and timing (Douglas, 2007: p.4).
Individualistic cultures have a relatively weak form of ‘group and grid’ control. In such an
environment every individual is just concerned with his or her own wellbeing. In the absence
of wealth and power, this culture could be defined as egalitarian. But as soon as the
community drifts to wealth and power, the culture fails to realise the egalitarian aims.
(Douglas, 2007: p.6).
The enclave culture is characterised by a relatively high group control. Moreover, there are
almost no hierarchical structures between members. This group of people differentiates itself
from other groups – an example being sects. Sect leaders’ aims are often focused on
preventing their members from leaving the group. Hence, they malign all other groups
outside the sect (Douglas, 2007: p.5).
Several other models exist. For example, Janis’ (1972) ideas on the psychological
phenomenon of ‘groupthink’ that can occur within groups, where the desire for harmony and
or conformity in the group can result in potentially very irrational and destructive decision-
making outcomes. Groupthink was identified as a problem in many organisational failures,
including within some of the banks that were badly affected by the recent financial crisis (e.g.
HBOS and RBS). Arguably, this is very much part of a cultural problem and Hofstede
introduced five dimensions to characterise cultures.
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Table 2 Hofstede’s cultural dimensions
(Soares, Farhangmehr and Shoham, 2007, pp.280-281).
Dimension
1 Individualism – collectivism
2 Uncertainty avoidance
3 Power distance
4 Masculinity – femininity
5 Long-term orientation
The first dimension uses a similar approach to that of Douglas. In individualistic cultures,
individuals only care for themselves or their closest family. This is contrary to that in
societies characterised by collectivism where everybody belongs to a group that looks after
their members and their families. Hofstede, like Douglas, uses uncertainty avoidance (risk
aversion) to describe and distinguish cultural groups. The equality/inequality of cultures is
considered in Hofstede’s third dimension, power distance and masculinity/femininity of
cultures is measured in his fourth dimension. The values in more masculine countries are
achievement and success, whereas the values in more feminine countries are caring for
each other and life quality. The last dimension, long-term orientation, represents the
orientation towards future benefits and situations. On the other hand there are short-term
oriented cultures, in which their members only care about rewards in the near future. In the
literature, Hofstede’s dimensions are discussed as a “simple, practical, and usable” solution
to describe cultural differences (Soares, Farhangmehr and Shoham, 2007: p.238). The
possibility of applying cross-country comparisons is one of the major advantages of
Hofstede’s dimensions. On the other hand, Hofstede’s fifth dimension, long-term
orientation, is not widely accepted (Fang, 2003: p.354).
The cultural setting was a critical factor in the emerging financial crisis of 2007/2008. In the
years between 2001 and 2006 a risk-accepting collectivism evolved. Almost every market
participant thought that the housing boom would never end (Gorton, 2009: p. 31). For a
rational individual, this might seem odd. However, if everybody in a society/community, even
the government, thinks the house price boom would last forever, why would anyone resist
earning money from risky investments? This phenomenon is also called herding (Ashby,
2010: p.26).
6. Heuristics and risk perceptions
Another influence on the decision making by managers is the usage and application of
heuristics and risk perceptions. One critical factor in risk management is the gathering and
assessment of relevant data. In the financial services industry this is frequently done with the
help of computers in order to safeguard 100% accuracy and reliability. But sometimes these
processes take a huge amount of time and individuals tend to apply their own decision-
taking shortcuts in their head. Individuals look for relevant memories and assess them
internally. Of course these memories are not 100% complete. Instead of assessing the risk
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situation in a statistically correct way, the individuals apply certain best practice methods that
worked out in the past, also known as heuristics. Using heuristics to calculate insurance
premiums could cause prediction errors and therefore produce premiums that were too high
or low.
7. Remuneration-related factors
Another factor that drives risk management decisions is the remuneration of personnel who
are in charge of risk-taking decisions. Chorafas (2009) points out that the bonus system,
which was first implemented in the 1990s, became a pay-for-poor-performance system over
the years. Mangers were paid a vast amount of money for no apparent improvement.
Therefore, preposterous bonus payments created a vicious risk-taking attitude (Chorafas,
2009: p.195). There are more aspects to this issue of poor compensation structures than
greed and corruption. This is especially the case for financial institutions which interact in an
increasingly complex environment. Ashby (2009, p.9) showed that it is rather the structure of
the compensation that the bonus’ volume that matters in terms of risk taking. Hence, the
people interviewed in the study described the following flaws in remuneration systems:
The incentives led to a short-term and sales driven attitude in the financial industry.
The risk decisions had no down side risk for the mangers, as there were no negative
consequences regarding their salary. Therefore, managers could choose amongst
risky and less risky alternatives without any fear of losses.
The regulatory framework had severe flaws. There were simply no incentives for the
managers to implement an effective risk management system.
These issues created a business environment best described as moral hazard (Ashby, 2010:
p.22). Another contribution links the risk-taking decisions back to the state of the economy.
Raviv and Sisli-Ciamarra, (2013, p.66) write ‘Understanding how similar pay packages may
yield different risk levels under different economic conditions is crucial to designing
rcompensation packages...’. The link between the level of compensation for publicly held
insurance companies and the return on assets (ROE) was investigated. It appears that
executives in stock exchange listed insurers chose more effectively between investment
alternatives than did privately owned insurers. An explanation for this condition is that large
shareholders monitor executives’ decisions closely in order to adjust the remuneration to an
accounting based measure like the ROE (Ke, Petroni and Safieddine, 1999: pp.206-207).
8. Enterprise Risk Management
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has become a widely used framework for managing
risks in business corporations and for strategic decisions in the face of risk. Prior to the
emergence of ERM, the thrust for the development of risk management tended to be
negative, i.e. all about eliminating, reducing and transferring risk – often referred to an
insurance approach. The ERM philosophy is that business is all about risk taking and that
business should see risk management in the same way. Carroll (2010) sums it up as:
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‘Now is the time to see the management of risk as a holistic business process that is
inherent in every decision. As opposed to being seen to hold back enterprise, the
consideration and evaluation of risk, should be seen as enriching the quality of
business decisions. It is, however sensible to capture the risk evaluation alongside
the decision. You make the decision including the risk consequences, rather than
despite them.’ (Carroll, 2010, p12)
This broad concept of a holistic approach, that Carroll refers to above, has been refined into
various formal ERM frameworks that have been widely adopted in industry and commerce in
the developed nations and in international corporations (COSO, 2004; AIRMIC, Alarm, IRM,
2010).
A study by Arena et al. (2011) found evidence (in a panel of nine Italian companies from
different industrial fields and legislative settings) that the characteristics of ERM are now
routinely embedded in the managerial actions in firms. There is also a growing consensus
that the expense and effort of implementing ERM is worth it. An American study by Hoyt and
Liebenberg (2011) measured the extent to which ERM had been implemented in a group of
275 US insurance companies and the extent to which this had added value. They calculated
an ERM ‘premium’ of approximately 20%.
On the negative side, Mikes and Kaplan (2015, p29) argue that risk management
approaches are largely unproven and still emerging. They have identified the existence of an
‘ERM mix’. In some organisations it is embedded in ‘the formal planning and resource
allocation process and also influences key strategic decisions’. In others, they identified an
ERM focus on compliance and internal controls or merely as independent facilitators.
9. Recommendations on how to improve the quality of executive decisions
In recent years, several publications have contributed to an improvement of decision-taking
processes in boards. The Walker report on banks points out that out of date and uninformed
management opinions led to negative outcomes (Walker, 2009: p.37). Walker’s report (2009)
identifies certain approaches to improve the decision-taking process. The first and probably
the most important improvement would be to implement a working risk culture (Walker,
2009: p.92). A risk culture is generally defined as a culture ‘That enables and rewards
individuals and groups for taking the right risks in an informed manner.’ (The Institute of Risk
Management, 2012: p6). There are many features that characterise an effective risk culture,
but for the purpose of this answer, information flow is probably the most important. Effective
risk cultures encourage a constant information flow up and down the hierarchical layers of
the corporation – including negative news (Institute of Risk Management, 2012: p.6). In other
words, the Board and all other employees should aspire to a state of shared responsibility for
risks (Kirkpatrick, 2008: p.12). Whilst a bad or failed risk culture may be easily recognised
post-disaster, there is now a view that a unique ‘good risk culture’ does not exist (Power,
Ashby and Palermo, 2014). This may not, however, rule out the possibility of useful
preventative action by boards. Implementing a risk culture requires the Board to understand
its present state of risk culture first before it can ask the question, ‘how to achieve an
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effective risk culture?’ Finally, the Board should make proposals for implementation of a plan
to change the culture (The Institute of Risk Management, 2012: p.9).
As mentioned earlier, Walker (2009) concluded that the attitudes of executives are often
entrenched. Therefore, the first step to understand the risk cultural setting is probably the
most challenging. How can an executive (on the board) change something if they live with an
attitude of that they are already doing everything the right way? This question may best be
answered by substituting the heuristical behaviour of the board with significant risk
monitoring through an internal control system. Further, Eisenberg (1997, p.264) links the
internal control to the board in order to make the decision making function meaningful. In
order to understand the present risk culture, generating a snapshot of the risk situation of a
company is essential. Simons (1999, pp.86-92) introduced a scoring model, also known as
the risk exposure calculator (see figure 2 below).
Figure 2: The risk exposure calculator
(Simons, 1999, p.87)
In this model framework, three kinds of risks are considered: growth, culture and information
management. These categories consist of three risks each, forming nine relevant exposures
overall. After the assessment of the nine risks, the scores are added together to generate an
overall score. This score gives significant information on the state of a company’s risk
culture. By the means of a scale, three major states can be distinguished: the safety, the
caution and the danger zones. Especially in the light of Walker’s statement, this calculator
is meaningful because ‘executive resistance to bad news’ is included. An insurance
company board executive with a resistance to advice would therefore score a rather high
value.
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The culture scoring aims of Simons (above) have appeal but are possibly difficult to apply in
practice. Other ideas for aligning risk culture with good decision making continue to emerge.
For example, an understand of the trade-offs organisations face when attempting to
‘manage’ their risk cultures (e.g. balancing risk support for disciplined business decisions
against the risks of imposing excessive controls, or balancing ethics and incentives as levers
over behavioural change) could enable the ‘formulation of prescriptions, in the form of simple
questions for practicing managers and staff, which may be more useful and targeted’
(Power, Ashby and Palermo, 2013: p.34).
There are other ways of improving the decision-taking processes of boards of insurance
companies. One approach is the inclusion of Independent decision takers in the decision-
taking process. While executive directors are directly affiliated with the company, non-
executive directors are not employed in the company and therefore independent. As most of
the board members vote in line with the Chief Executive Officer (CEO), independent non-
executive members should be more able to vote against the CEO (Schwartz-Ziv and
Weisbach, 2013: p.363). Another approach would be to either propose training through
independent professionals or to invite risk professionals on to the board. Walker (2009, p.46)
strongly recommends business awareness sessions – especially for non-executive directors.
This can ensure a meaningful contribution to decisions from the non-executive directors. As
mentioned earlier, remuneration also plays a critical role in improving the decision-taking
processes. Risk-taking behaviours should be rewarded in an appropriate way, while
excessive risk taking/overly risk aversion should be avoided (Institution of Risk Management,
2012: p.15).
Walker (2009, p.105) also points out that the risk disclosure is a critical topic. Regulatory
frameworks like Basel II/III (for banks) and Solvency II (for insurance companies) oblige
institutions to disclose information on risk management. The extent to which this happens
depends on the legal framework of the relevant country (Hull, 2012: pp. 278-279). Walker,
however, proposes the disclosure of information regarding key risk exposures, the risk
appetite and tolerance as well as the dynamic assessment of the risk appetite. Generally,
risk appetite is defined as:
“The amount of risk, on a broad level, an entity is willing to accept in pursuit of value.
It reflects the entity’s risk management philosophy, and in turn influences the entity’s
culture and operating style. ...Risk appetite guides resource allocation. ...Risk
appetite [assists the organization] in aligning the organisation, people, and processes
in [designing the] infrastructure necessary to effectively respond to and monitor
risks.” (Rittenberg and Martens, 2012: p.3)
This definition shows the multidimensional characteristic of risk management (Haimes, 2009:
pp. 1647 and 1651). Risk appetite plays a critical role in risk management since it
determines major parts of a company’s strategy. For that reason, risk appetite requires clear
definitions, communication and a monitoring process (Rittenberg and Martens, 2012: p.1).
Monitoring ensures the required match between the company’s strategy and risk appetite. If
there are deviations, the risk appetite needs to be readjusted (KPMG, 2008, p.7). In addition
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to many others, one part of risk appetite is the risk tolerance – the setting of tolerance
ranges for risk exposures. This approach is often used to monitor and compare the actual
risk exposure with the defined risk appetite (KPMG, 2008: p.8). As Walker (2009, p.105)
implied, boards should focus on the definition of risk appetite and tolerance in order to
ensure meaningful and flawless decisions.
10. Conclusion
Earlier in this answer, it was concluded that expected utility theory is an unrealistic tool for
examining real world decisions in the insurance industry. In reality, there is a wide range of
factors that influence the executive-level decision-taking process. This concentration of
factors has created a highly complex environment for insurance companies (and other
organisations) to cope with. Thus, executive level decision takers are in need of workable
techniques to achieve more effective and prudent decisions. Some simple approaches exist,
such as the board composition as highlighted in the case of Tesco, and there are new
sophisticated ideas for developing a genuine risk management culture. Enhancing
professional training may help, for example by requiring professional membership of
institutes like the CII. Refining and fully implementing the ERM process currently appears to
offer the best hope for improving the adequacy of business decisions taken under conditions
of risk and uncertainty.
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References
AIRMIC, Alarm, IRM (2010). A structured approach to Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
and the requirements of ISO31000. Available at:
https://www.theirm.org/media/886062/ISO3100_doc.pdf [Accessed 17th October 2016]
Arena, M., Arnaboldi, M. And Azzone, G. (2011) Is enterprise risk management real? Journal
of Risk Research Vol. 14, No. 7, August 2011, 779-797.
Ashby, S. (2009). Picking up the Pieces – Risk Management in a Post Crises World - -
Recommendations for Financial Institutions and their Regulators. Nottingham Financial
Services Research Forum.
Ashby, S. (2010). The 2007-09 Financial Crisis: Learning the Risk Management Lessons.
Nottingham Financial Services Research Forum, Paper 65.
Carroll, T. (2010) A holistic approach to business risk management. In Approaches to
Enterprise Risk Management, London: Bloomsbury, pp. 9-12.
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2009 and Beyond. New York (NYC): Palgrave Macmillan.
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Fang, T. (2003). A Critique of Hofstede’s Fifth National Culture Dimension. International
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newspaper, 1st October 2014. Available at:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/01/tesco-investigated-fca-accounting-
scandal [Accessed 17th October 2016]
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Haimes, Y.Y. (2009). On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems-Based Approach. Risk
Analysis. 29(12).
Hoyt, R. And Liebenberg, A (2011) The value of enterprise risk management. Journal of Risk
and Insurance, 78(4), pp. 795-822.
Hubbard, D.W. (2009). The Failure of Risk Management – Why it’s Broken and How to Fix it.
Hoboken (NJ): John Wiley & Sons.
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