Special Crops Update - Constant...

Inside This Issue

1 Highlights & Lowlights

2 Demand Questions for Peas

5 Mustard Prices Muted

7 Small Seasonal Bump Possible for Canaryseed

9 Potential for Stronger Dry Bean Demand

11 Special Crop Bid Sheet

12 Global Price Indications

13 CGC Special Crop Handling Statistics

14 S&Ds and Charts

Special Crops Update March 1, 2017 Volume 7, Issue 41

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Highlights & Lowlights

Peas • Yellow pea bids are declining on slower Indian demand while

greens are steadier. • Ongoing demand from China is providing most of the support. • The Indian rabi pea crop could surpass a million tonnes. • Relatively firm yellow pea bids are a signal that supplies aren't

burdensome.

Mustard • Quieter demand and comfortable supplies could keep yellow and

oriental mustard from following the seasonal trend higher. • A sharp rebound in the Indian mustard/rapeseed crop could weigh

on oriental mustard prices. • The lower quality of the 2016 crop is keeping a floor under

mustard bids.

Canaryseed • The average canaryseed bid bumped slightly higher but hasn't

exhibited any of the usual seasonal strength. • The seasonal pickup in April exports could lift bids temporarily. • New-crop bids aren’t very attractive to farmers but 2017 acres

could remain steady.

Dry Beans • Most dry bean bids have been flat to slightly weaker this winter. • Mexican prices are climbing even as the winter harvest is

underway. • Argentine bean acreage is estimated to be unchanged from last

year, with a few early moisture concerns.

March 1, 2017 – Special Crops Update

Demand Questions for Peas

The uncertainty surrounding the Indian fumigation issue has been the main (but not the only) factor causing pea bids to soften in the last week or two. Not surprisingly, yellow bids in Canada and the US have been hit harder, down 50 and 90 cents per bushel respectively. Meanwhile green pea bids have been less affected.

At the time of writing, the Indian situation remains unclear, with conflicting reports from various sources in India and Canada. Some have stated the Indian government is considering extending the fumigation exemption further, essentially kicking the can down the road another six months. Other reports are still saying the Indian government will carry through on its plans to require fumigation at origin.

Understandably, there’s a lot of concern from all parties. Until it gets resolved, buyers have responded to the risk of slower trade by reducing bids or pulling them entirely. We had been calling for lower bids, especially for yellows, but that was based on our view of supply and demand, not a change in regulations. This doesn’t make our market call right, just “lucky”.

We have been anticipating a slowdown in Indian demand, just not so abrupt. In fact, some of that decline has already been occurring over the winter. We’ll be watching next week’s StatsCan

release of the January export data for further signs. Pea exports to India in November and December had been sharply lower, dropping the country out of first place, and we wouldn’t be surprised if that occurred again in January.

With India less of a player in the past few months, it’s been Chinese demand that’s really supported yellow pea prices and that business doesn’t appear to be slowing down. In shipping week 29, 93,000 tonnes of peas were exported with most going through the west coast headed for

China (and more is on the way). That’s the largest weekly total since mid-October. The year-to-date total of licensed exports is now 2.15 million tonnes compared to 1.72 million tonnes last year and far ahead of the 5-year average of 1.30 million tonnes.

LeftField Special Crops Update

The main question is what this Indian market disruption (if it happens) could do to Canadian export volumes for the remainder of 2016/17. Our full-year export target is 3.6 million tonnes and the StatsCan data shows 2.0 million tonnes were shipped by the end of December. Exporting the remaining 1.6 million tonnes in Jan-Jul wouldn’t be a stretch in a normal year. Four out of the past eight years, Canada has shipped close to that much, including 1.78 million tonnes in 2008/09. So it’s certainly doable.

If the Indian fumigation ban does come to pass, Canadian exports would be stopped, but the disruption would be temporary as traders would eventually find ways to keep peas flowing. But under the worst case of a total shutdown, roughly 400,000 tonnes of trade would be halted. That’s the 5-year average of exports to India in the Feb-July timeframe.

Of course, this scenario assumes pea exports wouldn’t get rerouted through other countries on their way to India. It also doesn’t account for increased purchases from other pea importers. As we’ve already mentioned, China has become a larger buyer of Canadian peas this year. Over the first six months of 2016/17, China has imported nearly 650,000 tonnes of peas, with most coming from Canada. Because Chinese demand tends to be steadier and less seasonal than India, this monthly pace of nearly 110,000 tonnes could continue and push the full-year total to 1.2 million tonnes. That compares to recent crop year totals of 850-900,000 tonnes. Pea prices in China have been firming up recently, which indicates strong

demand. Chinese prices could turn lower if Canadian offers decline, but it wouldn’t signal weaker demand and lower prices could actually trigger additional purchases.

Besides China, other Asian countries have also increased their pea purchases and if Indian demand weakens, some other countries could step up. That’s especially the case if reduced Indian demand weighs on yellow pea prices. Sizable buyers that are already purchasing above last year’s pace include Bangladesh, Pakistan and Myanmar. The chart shows that for Aug-Dec, Canadian exports to Asia were up 28% from last year, with the lion’s share of the

increase from China. When these “minor” countries are combined with China, the stronger demand could mostly offset the declines to India.


If the Indian government changes its mind and decides to extend the exemption on fumigation, it would add to the pull on Canadian peas, but Indian purchases will still remain soft regardless. That’s because the rabi crop is now being harvested and appears to be much larger than last year. Government estimates of the pea crop aren’t available but based on acreage numbers and a 5-year average yield, the Indian crop could top 1.0 million tonnes for the first time ever. The chickpea crop is forecast to hit 9.1 million tonnes, 27% above last year. Both the larger pea and chickpea crops were already expected to erode demand for Canadian peas, so the fumigation issue may not have a large direct impact on exports anyway.

We’ve seen some extremely large estimates of 2016/17 Canadian pea ending stocks, around 800,000 tonnes or more. Our own estimate isn’t nearly that large, closer to 300,000 tonnes for yellows and greens combined. Our S&D includes the 3.6 million tonnes of exports and an

aggressive 1.15 million tonnes of domestic use, but those still seem feasible.

The strength (until now) in pea bids, especially for yellows, also supports the idea that pea supplies aren’t all that burdensome. If 2016/17 ending stocks are as large as some are projecting, $9 per bushel would not have been available this late in the marketing year. And the limited reaction (compared to lentils) in pea bids to concerns about India is another sign that the market isn’t facing burdensome supplies.

Pea bids in western Canada are weakening and will come under more pressure due to slower demand later in 2016/17. This would be happening regardless of the Indian fumigation concerns. Even so, the reaction has been relatively subdued and points to tighter supplies and steady demand.


90-Day Price Probability – Pea Bids (C$/bu, Central Prairies) Range Probability Yellow (2C or better) Under $7.50 20%

$7.50 - $8.00 45% $8.00 - $8.50 25% Over $8.50 10%

Green (2C or better) Under $8.00 10% $8.00 - $8.50 35% $8.50 - $9.00 40% Over $9.00 15%

Mustard Prices Muted

There’s still not a whole lot of action in Canadian mustard markets. Bids to the farmer remain flat and uncontracted volumes being purchased by processors and exporters are minimal. This type of behaviour isn’t unusual for this time of year. Seasonal tendencies for all three classes of mustard tend to run sideways until late April. At that point, brown mustard bids tend to turn lower while yellow and oriental show some strength before declining in late June or early July.

Even though yellow and oriental mustard prices normally show a bit of strength in late spring, we’re not convinced that will happen this year. Comfortable supplies in western Canada are one factor but weaker demand from overseas buyers will probably be the main reason for the lack of a seasonal bump.

Typically, US purchases of yellow mustard tick higher ahead of the summer baseball and hot dog season but the larger US 2016 domestic crop could put a damper on imports from Canada. As for oriental, weaker Asian markets could limit demand for Canadian product too.

The first government estimate of this year’s Indian mustard/rapeseed crop is 7.91 million tonnes, a sharp rebound from the past two years and the largest since 2012/13. While the Indian crop is a combination of mustard and rapeseed and is mainly used for oil, it can influence markets in surrounding countries. Prices in India (shown below) have been dropping sharply ever since the rabi crop was planted and now that harvest is underway, the downward momentum is continuing. That has the potential to cut into the demand for Canadian oriental mustard.


One factor that has been keeping Canadian bids somewhat supported has been the quality of last year’s Canadian crop. We were recently reminded that the 2016 harvest was challenging, which caused one of the worst grade profiles in recent history. A look back at our November 30 report shows that as per Sask Ag, more than a third of the 2016 mustard crop was a 2Can or lower.

If that’s the case, the lower grades mean there’s less good quality mustard than what the top-line supply numbers say and the situation isn’t as

burdensome as what it seems like on the surface. At the end of 2016/17, ending stocks of 94,000 tonnes could consist of less than 50,000 tonnes of 1Can mustard. This doesn’t turn the mustard market from bearish to bullish, but helps explain why the biggest crop in 12 years hasn’t pushed bids down into the teens, versus current levels in the high 20s and low 30s.

For yellow and oriental mustard, supplies are still comfortable enough that little price improvement is expected through the remainder of 2016/17. At the same time, brown mustard could see more gains in advance of the European buying season. These same price signals might shift farmers planting intentions and (under normal growing conditions) could cause prices for the various classes to flip around in 2017/18, with yellow moving back into a premium position.


90-Day Price Probability – Mustard Bids (C$/cwt, Central Prairies) Range Probability Yellow (1C) Under $28 15%

$28 - $29 30% $29 - $30 40% Over $30 15%

Brown (1C) Under $28 10% $28 - $29 30% $29 - $30 35% Over $30 25%

Oriental (1C) Under $28 15% $28 - $29 40% $29 - $30 35% Over $30 10%

Small Seasonal Bump Possible for Canaryseed

If it depended on seasonal trends, canaryseed bids would be showing some strength at this time of year. Prices normally climb through January and February before turning lower through the spring and summer. That hasn’t been the case this year as canaryseed bids lost $1.60 per cwt over that timeframe.

This week, the average old-crop bid showed a small recovery, likely in order to fill an upcoming export shipment. We have been expecting prices to level off somewhere in this neighbourhood as $20 per cwt is likely a floor for canaryseed growers that are used to binning the crop for multiple years. Even though further downside may be limited, there’s not a whole lot of optimism about a rally either.

If there is going to be a sustained move higher, it would need to happen soon. As seen below, canaryseed exports tended to peak again in April or May mostly due to one or two bulk shipments to Europe when the Seaway reopens. If supplies are in any way tight, sourcing to meet those larger shipments would trigger a noticeable bump in country bids. But if bids show little response, it’s a strong clue confirming that supplies are still quite comfortable and enough farmers are willing to sell.

Our view is that supplies are still adequate and only farmers’ reluctance to sell will provide a bit of a lift. A modest $1-2 per cwt increase may be all that’s needed to meet this short-term demand but once those shipments are filled, prices here will slip back to around the $20 per cwt level.


Canaryseed acreage this spring is still up in the air. Average new-crop bids have been slipping further. Some buyers have issued token bids, but clearly aren’t trying to encourage more acreage. Even the more serious bids of $17-18 per cwt aren’t going to attract a lot of contract sign-up. If farmers are growing canaryseed in 2017, it’s more about keeping a cereal crop in the rotation while postponing marketing until some point in the future.

Prices of other birdseed ingredients are continuing to shift. In India,

nigerseed dropped again after a recent recovery from the lows. In its latest advance estimate, the Indian government dropped its 2016/17 nigerseed production total to 85,000 tonnes from its previous report of 101,000 tonnes.

In the US, bids for millet are showing some modest strength as old-crop supplies are consumed. White millet has been gradually coming off the lows while red millet showed a bit more of a bump. Even so, this can hardly be described as a serious rally. New-crop bids for white millet are in line with old-crop values, suggesting there aren’t large concerns about trying to attract more 2017 acres.

Canaryseed old-crop bids could see a modest bump in order to fill the typical export shipments in the next two months. That’s not likely to be sustained into the summer however as more farmers are willing to sell. Buyers aren’t getting a signal from farmers that 2017 acres will be cut back, and that will limit gains for new-crop bids.

90-Day Price Probability – Canaryseed Bids (C$/cwt, Central Prairies) Range Probability 1C Under $20 20%

$20 - $22 45% $22 - $24 30% Over $24 5%


Potential for Stronger Dry Bean Demand

There hasn’t been much movement in North American dry bean prices for the past 2-3 months. In the US, average bids to the farmer are flat to slightly softer since the markets peaked last fall. Black beans continue to lead the way while pintos have edged gradually lower. Even bids for other classes like kidneys or small reds aren’t showing a whole lot of movement. The few Canadian bids have also been mostly flat but are generally $1-2 per cwt higher than US prices.

At this stage, there hasn’t been a whole lot of trade of uncontracted beans as contracted supplies have been adequate so far. That may start to change in the coming weeks, which could cause a small bump in prices again.

On both sides of the border, new-crop bids are below spot prices. In the US, new-crop pintos are roughly $3.00 per cwt below spot prices and new-crop blacks are $3.50 cheaper than spot bids. In western Canada, the few new-crop bids we have for pintos and blacks are showing a larger inverse, partly because the spot bids in Canada are stronger than in the US.

Planting data for the 2017 winter Mexican bean crop is pointing to 245,000 seeded hectares, 10-11% more than the previous two years and in line with longer-term historical levels. Despite

those added acres, bean prices in Mexico have shown some sharp moves higher in recent weeks. Local sources indicate these increases are mostly related to dwindling supplies from the last summer crop, which was 11% larger than the year before but still below the previous two years. If that’s the case, the gains could be short-lived as the winter crop harvest is already underway.

The timing of this rally at the early stage of the winter harvest however, suggests the strength is mostly stemming from production concerns this spring. While this is the dry season, only a few areas in northern Mexico have even received normal

rainfall while much of the region has been abnormally dry. In this case, a smaller winter bean crop would mean this latest rally has more room to run and the stronger prices will last longer.


Further south in Argentina, planting the 2016/17 dry bean crop is well underway. The latest government estimate indicates very little change in seeded area is expected. Some dryness is noted in Salta which has delayed planting and is something to monitor.

The Latin American bean crops are a critical part of the outlook for 2017/18 demand in North America. If it turns out the Mexican winter crop is compromised or the Argentine situation gets worse, demand for beans from the US and Canada could rise sharply. This would be happening at a time when North American bean supplies are relatively low. And if farmers in Canada and the US respond to the weaker new-crop bids by limiting acreage, prices could rally further.

The North American bean market has been fairly sleepy but could see some signs of life soon. Fresh demand from Mexico would give the market a boost, especially for pintos and blacks. Factors affecting the new-crop outlook include farmers’ acreage decisions, leaning more toward stronger prices.

90-Day Price Probability – Dry Bean Bids (C$/cwt, Eastern Prairies) Range Probability Pinto (1C) Under $38 15%

$38 - $40 40% $40 - $42 30% Over $42 15%

Black (1C) Under $38 5% $38 - $40 15% $40 - $42 50% Over $42 30%

Navy (1C) Under $38 20% $38 - $40 40% $40 - $42 30% Over $42 10%

We encourage you to call or e-mail with questions or comments! ~ 204-949-1726 or [email protected] ~

This material is intended for the clients of LeftField Commodity Research. We don’t have a team of lawyers, but we simply ask that you don’t forward it or copy it without asking us. It’s our livelihood.

The fine print: We do our best to provide accurate information in this newsletter but we don’t guarantee its accuracy nor accept liability for any errors. This newsletter provides guidance but does not make specific marketing recommendations.

Last week Wkly 4 WeeksMin Max Avg Avg NC Avg Avg Chg Ago

Peas (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu#2 Yellow 275.58 312.32 289.28 7.87 7.33 8.22 -0.35 8.34#2 Green 286.60 312.32 301.67 8.21 7.55 8.13 0.08 8.42Feed 125.00 284.76 206.66 5.62 n/a 5.69 -0.06 5.71#2 Maple 551.16 587.90 569.53 15.50 11.00 15.50 0.00 14.75Lentils (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt#2 Lg Green 925.94 1212.54 1018.53 46.20 37.00 52.80 -6.60 57.86#2 Med Green 1036.17 1124.36 1087.61 49.33 34.00 49.75 -0.42 52.20#2 Sm Green 881.85 1234.59 1025.15 46.50 35.67 52.00 -5.50 57.17#2 Fr Green 1014.13 1212.54 1113.33 50.50 n/a 50.50 0.00 52.00#2 Sm Red 485.02 612.50 555.47 25.20 24.13 25.82 -0.62 26.93Chickpeas (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtKabuli 8-9 mm 992.08 992.08 992.08 45.00 45.00 65.00 -20.00 65.00Desi n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aFlax (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/buBrown 452.73 511.78 475.51 12.08 10.64 12.30 -0.22 12.52Yellow 728.31 728.31 728.31 18.50 n/a 16.75 1.75 18.25Mustard (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtYellow 617.29 705.48 661.38 30.00 35.00 30.00 0.00 31.00Brown 661.38 749.57 716.50 32.50 33.33 32.00 0.50 31.00Oriental 617.29 705.48 654.03 29.67 32.00 29.67 0.00 30.50Canaryseed (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtCanaryseed 418.88 462.97 449.74 20.40 16.44 19.83 0.57 20.50

Last week Wkly 4 WeeksMin Max Avg Avg NC Avg Avg Chg Ago

Peas (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu#2 Yellow 211.28 266.39 237.30 6.46 5.89 6.50 -0.04 6.79#2 Green 220.46 248.02 229.80 6.25 6.00 6.63 -0.37 6.63Feed 183.72 183.72 183.72 5.00 n/a 5.00 0.00 5.00Lentils (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtLg Green 749.57 749.57 749.57 34.00 n/a 34.00 0.00 34.00Med Green 628.32 793.66 713.75 32.38 23.50 32.38 0.00 33.38Sm Green 815.71 815.71 815.71 37.00 24.00 37.00 0.00 37.00Pardina 551.16 562.18 554.83 25.17 n/a 25.17 0.00 25.00Red 407.85 672.41 540.13 24.50 18.00 25.75 -1.25 25.25Dry Beans (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtPinto 617.29 661.39 622.19 28.22 25.40 28.13 0.09 28.53Black 639.34 661.39 650.36 29.50 26.00 29.50 0.00 29.80Navy 595.25 617.29 606.27 27.50 n/a 27.50 0.00 27.50Chickpeas (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtSm Kabuli 970.03 970.03 970.03 44.00 n/a 44.00 0.00 44.00Lg Kabuli 793.66 1036.17 874.50 39.67 n/a 39.67 0.00 39.67Flax (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/buBrown 275.58 374.00 307.51 7.81 7.85 7.83 -0.02 7.86Yellow n/a n/a 433.05 11.00 n/a 11.00 0.00 11.00Sunflowers (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtNuSun 275.58 324.08 297.48 13.49 14.53 13.44 0.06 13.36HO Sun 288.81 316.36 302.58 13.73 n/a 13.85 -0.13 13.73Oil Birdfood 314.16 341.72 327.94 14.88 n/a 14.94 -0.06 14.91Birdseed (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtWhite Millet 110.23 165.35 126.39 5.73 5.75 5.75 -0.02 5.57Red Millet 137.79 143.30 140.54 6.38 n/a 6.25 0.13 6.25Birdseed (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/buMilo 96.06 118.10 106.64 2.71 n/a 2.74 -0.03 2.65

------------------------This week------------------------

Special Crop Bid Sheet

------------------------This week------------------------

Posted bids from Western Canadian buyers

Posted bids from US Northern Plains and PNW buyers

Note: Prices shown are indications only and may not be actual traded values. All values in US$ per tonne

Type LocationThis

weekWeek Ago

4 Wks Ago

Year Ago Type Location

This week

Week Ago

4 Wks Ago

Year Ago

Peas FlaxGrower Seed

#2 Yellow Edmonton 242 249 246 383 1C Saskatoon 362 364 378 319 #1 Green Saskatoon 329 329 329 238 1C Wpg, MB 361 361 369 332 #1 Yellow Saskatoon 330 330 330 377 #1 RedWing, MN 374 374 374 354 Green N Dakota 241 259 264 299 Golden N Dakota 308 307 307 304 Yellow N Dakota 239 239 235 240 Linseed NW Europe 420 425 435 398 Dun Adelaide 254 254 258 396 Linseed Ukraine 349 337 327 365

Wholesale Linseed FOB Russia 518 518 518 518 Cdn Yellow Mumbai 353 358 362 381 Linseed Tianjin (offer) 664 671 667 622 Cdn Green Kolkatta 434 449 471 461 ProductsGreen Bogota 712 742 725 649 Meal Minn 325 331 331 215 Yellow FOB Ukraine 284 283 280 328 Meal FOB Rhine 335 340 375 340 Russian Yel Karachi - - - 380 Oil Minn, MN 1,521 1,521 1,521 1,521 Feed Netherlands 259 260 263 253 Oil Rotterdam 790 804 855 790 Feed Rouen 262 265 264 237 SunflowersYellow China port 440 426 418 479 SeedGreen China port 470 470 470 512 Oilseed Saskatoon 377 379 380 346

Lentils Oilseed Enderlin, ND 333 332 333 363 Grower Oil NuSun Kansas 309 301 309 336

Lg Grn Saskatoon 925 1,093 1,116 1,156 Oilseed FOB Ukraine 395 400 400 425 Sm Grn Saskatoon 863 1,023 1,055 944 Oilseed NW Europe 415 415 420 452 Red Saskatoon 398 453 461 729 Birdseed US elev 329 331 326 353 Red (Nugget) Adelaide 424 436 519 - Confection Buenos Aires 800 800 800 900 Med Grn US Elev Avg 714 719 736 1,025 Confection FOB Russia 696 701 706 725 Red US Elev Avg 714 719 736 1,025 Products

Wholesale Meal ND/SD/MN 182 182 176 138 Lg Grn Mexico City 1,709 1,678 1,567 1,428 RBWD NuSun Oi Dakotas 1,190 1,190 1,190 1,168 Green Bogota 1,662 1,688 1,754 1,660 Oil Rotterdam 795 810 820 860 Green Mersin 1,580 1,612 1,570 1,671 Oil Ukraine 750 765 775 790 Sm Grn Spain 1,130 1,135 1,150 1,322 MustardRed (retail) Egypt 1,617 1,690 1,613 - Brown S'toon, SK 558 562 562 568 Red Mersin 689 709 699 1,063 Yellow S'toon, SK 474 477 477 885 Red Indore 594 636 688 673 Oriental S'toon, SK 478 481 481 839 Cdn Red Karachi - - - 926 Ind Yellow NW Europe 1,268 1,243 1,268 1,255

Products Ind Brown NW Europe 960 935 960 960 Split Red Mersin 775 1,029 997 1,460 White Ukraine 539 537 533 372 Football Red Mersin 1,052 1,066 997 1,401 White FOB Russia 746 746 746 438 Split Yellow Mersin 1,213 1,555 1,556 1,512 Yellow Chennai, India 739 736 NULL 699

Black Chennai, India 689 686 NULL 684 Chickpeas Dry BeansGrower Pinto N Dakota 617 617 628 463

9mm Kabuli Saskatoon 733 837 974 492 Black N Dakota 650 661 650 485 9mm Kabuli ID/WA 783 783 816 694 Pea Bean N Dakota 606 606 606 419 Desi Saskatoon 597 596 581 428 Grt Northern NE / CO 617 617 661 441 Desi Brisbane 647 640 636 749 Negro Mexico City 955 938 902 824

Wholesale Pinto Mexico City 1,005 987 950 879 7mm Kabuli Mersin - 1,002 1,285 892 Peruano Mexico City 1,759 1,727 1,662 1,648 8mm Mersin 1,968 2,102 1,778 1,070 Black Buenos Aires 1,010 1,010 1,120 520 9mm Mersin 2,256 2,296 2,176 1,424 Lg alubia Buenos Aires 1,170 1,170 1,200 660 10mm Mersin 2,626 2,806 2,232 1,634 Sm alubia Buenos Aires 980 980 1,020 500 Lg Garbanzo Mexico City 1,759 1,727 1,710 1,208 Red Buenos Aires 950 950 940 700 Sm Kabuli Spain 876 880 892 589 Carioca (8.5) Brazil 710 725 690 898 Chana Jaipur 747 792 942 642 Preto Extra Brazil 817 819 916 762

Round White Ethiopia 657 636 622 389 Birdseed Blackeye Colombia 1,136 1,132 1,119 1,399

Canaryseed Saskatoon 340 354 365 398 Nima Calima Colombia 1,274 1,245 1,099 1,815 Argentina 600 600 600 575 White Mersin 1,536 1,551 1,343 849 Spain #N/A #N/A #N/A - Romano Mersin 1,705 1,457 1,651 1,627

White Millet Dakotas 126 126 123 133 Faba (retail) Egypt 793 702 648 - Red Millet Dakotas 138 138 138 143 Faba Adelaide 179 185 189 346 Niger Seed Mumbai 1,017 1,017 986 1,200 Faba Rouen 221 218 216 256

CurrencyUS$/Cdn$ 0.760 0.765 0.765 0.730 US$/Tlira 0.279 0.273 0.261 0.341 US$/Euro 1.056 1.060 1.075 1.101 US$/AU$ 0.770 0.771 0.757 0.720 US$/IN Rupee 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 US$/Arg Peso 0.064 0.065 0.063 0.065

Global Price Indications

Grain Shipping Week: 29Week ending:

Flax Peas Lentils Chickpeas Canaryseed Mustard Dry BeansFarm Deliveries Current 14.0 87.8 17.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.4 Last week 8.7 73.9 17.3 1.8 2.1 1.0 0.6 Year-to-date 275.1 2778.9 1478.1 22.9 34.0 18.1 47.0 Last YTD 332.6 2000.6 1284.1 31.2 28.5 18.4 44.2

Shipments Current 3.4 89.0 11.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.4 Last week 14.3 41.0 15.0 0.9 2.1 1.0 1.5 Year-to-date 253.1 2469.8 1139.0 13.6 24.4 18.7 24.5 Last YTD 266.1 1853.9 975.2 9.5 16.3 18.7 26.8

Exports Current 0.8 92.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 Last week 1.0 16.4 14.7 0.1 1.9 0.5 0.6 Year-to-date 189.9 2148.3 594.7 1.9 11.9 11.3 47.0 Last YTD 189.5 1722.6 554.6 3.2 23.0 10.9 44.2

Visible Stocks Primary & Proc 62.0 295.0 124.4 11.1 8.6 2.5 29.5 Terminal 23.7 51.8 18.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.0 In-transit 10.9 57.1 19.4 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 Total 96.6 403.9 161.9 11.1 10.2 4.4 29.5 Last week 88.2 416.5 159.1 10.6 8.8 4.8 30.2 Last yr total 75.1 358.2 138.0 14.9 9.4 5.4 18.4

Unfortunately, the Indian gov't has decided to stop reporting weekly imports.We will be posting monthly imports as we receive them, but data will be less timely.

Week ending: Yellow

Peas Green Peas Chana Lentils Tur

Kidney Beans Other

Current week 77,851 1,949 48,286 28,234 44,288 1,547 8,973 Last week 212,587 2,166 46,013 19,833 32,531 958 5,924 Year-to-date 1,890,996 139,416 248,160 256,610 463,811 70,629 578,419 Prior YTD 1,032,593 140,750 457,784 550,876 403,091 64,746 541,949 Full year 15/16 1,671,745 164,486 1,084,172 1,157,738 512,533 97,510 698,171Market year (Apr-Mar)

November 27, 2016

CGC Weekly Handling StatisticsIncludes only bulk movement through licensed facilities (thousand tonnes)

India Weekly Pulse Imports (tonnes)

February 19, 2017

LeftField Special Crops Update S&Ds and Charts3/1/2017

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Source: CGC, StatsCan, NCDEX, USDA, SAF, MAFRI, Lloyd's List, MATBA, MTB, DTN, OilWorld, Commodity3 Copyright © 2016 by LeftField Commodity Research

8

18

28

38

48

58

68

Cent

s per

pou

nd

Chickpea Prices - Saskatchewan

Desi Kabuli 9mm

2468

101214161820

CDN

$ pe

r bus

hel

Field Pea Prices - Saskatchewan

Feed peas Green edibles Yellow edibles

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Cent

s per

pou

nd

Lentil Prices - Saskatchewan

Large Green Small Green Red

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

Cent

s per

pou

nd

Canaryseed Price - Saskatchewan

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 3,730 3,325 3,985 3,680 4,239 4,350Harvested Acres, 000' 3,645 3,285 3,923 3,632 4,166 4,258Yield (bu/acre) 33.7 44.3 35.7 32.4 42.7 37.7

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 265 174 329 684 176 282 Production 3,341 3,961 3,810 3,201 4,836 4,374 Imports 16 25 31 16 20 10Total Supply 3,622 4,160 4,170 3,901 5,032 4,666

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 226 270 251 290 300 275 Other Domestic 572 781 144 718 850 800 Exports 2,650 2,781 3,091 2,716 3,600 3,200Total Disposition 3,448 3,831 3,486 3,724 4,750 4,275

Ending Stocks 174 329 684 176 282 391Stocks/Use 5.0% 8.6% 19.6% 4.7% 5.9% 9.1%Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold

Canadian Field Pea Supply & Disposition12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 2,515 2,720 3,120 4,035 5,860 4,950Harvested Acres, 000' 2,481 2,695 3,008 3,926 5,740 4,845Yield (lbs/acre) 1,367 1,850 1,456 1,427 1,248 1,469

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 860 467 786 365 73 432 Production 1,538 2,262 1,987 2,541 3,248 3,230 Imports 9 9 13 16 25 20Total Supply 2,407 2,738 2,786 2,921 3,347 3,681

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 93 106 132 199 165 175 Other Domestic 209 93 61 503 500 600 Exports 1,638 1,753 2,229 2,146 2,250 2,450Total Disposition 1,940 1,952 2,421 2,848 2,915 3,225

Ending Stocks 467 786 365 73 432 456Stocks/Use 24% 40% 5% 5% 5% 5%Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold

Canadian Lentil Supply & Disposition

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 200 195 195 125 172 150Harvested Acres, 000' 198 193 175 125 163 145Yield (lbs/acre) 1,797 2,097 1,664 1,600 1,658 1,763

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 11 54 138 137 20 17 Production 161 184 132 91 123 116 Imports 9 5 5 4 4 5Total Supply 181 243 275 231 147 138

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 13 10 8 11 10 10 Other Domestic 46 50 50 50 35 40 Exports 68 45 80 151 85 75Total Disposition 127 105 138 212 130 125


Canadian Chickpea Supply & Disposition12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 350 220 280 335 265 250Harvested Acres, 000's 325 210 270 325 225 237Yield (lbs/acre) 1,015 1,375 1,039 1,040 1,321 1,158

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 42 62 40 39 71 76 Production 150 131 127 153 135 124 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Supply 207 218 217 232 231 230

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 4 5 7 6 5 5 Other Domestic 4 8 8 9 10 10 Exports 137 165 164 146 140 155Total Disposition 145 178 179 161 155 170


Canadian Canaryseed Supply & Disposition


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15

17

19

21

23

25

27

Cent

s per

pou

nd

Oil Sunflower Price - Saskatchewan

15202530354045505560

Cent

s per

pou

nd

Mustard Prices - Saskatchewan

Yellow Mustard Brown Mustard Oriental Mustard

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750

C$ p

er to

nne

Flax Price - Manitoba & Saskatchewan

Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

US$

per

cwt

North Dakota Dry Bean Producer Bids

Pinto Black Pea Bean

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 980 1,070 1,585 1,640 935 1,250 Harvested Acres, 000' 950 1,043 1,534 1,595 836 1,197 Yield (bu/acre) 20.3 27.6 22.4 23.3 27.3 24.2

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 137 71 92 98 274 113 Production 489 731 873 942 579 734 Imports 15 14 11 12 10 10 Total Supply 640 816 975 1,052 863 857

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 18 27 28 16 28 28 Other Domestic 71 80 143 130 122 146 Exports 481 616 707 633 600 600 Total Disposition 569 724 877 779 750 774

Ending Stocks 71 92 98 274 113 83 Stocks/Use 12% 13% 11% 35% 15% 11%Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold

Canadian Flax Supply & Disposition12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 100 70 75 100 70 95 Harvested Acres, 000' 98 68 72 95 68 92 Yield (lbs/ac) 1,955 1,683 1,684 1,685 1,640 1,729

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 7 17 8 10 29 19 Production 87 52 55 73 51 72 Imports 27 25 25 20 20 20 Total Supply 121 94 88 102 99 111



Canadian Sunflower Supply & Disposition

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 335 365 500 345 525 325 Harvested Acres, 000' 333 360 483 328 497 316 Yield (lbs/acre) 951 1,099 904 829 1,038 964




Canadian Mustard Supply & Disposition

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 325 287 332 317 301 288 Harvested Acres, 000' 317 287 321 315 296 279 Yield (lbs/acre) 1,905 2,178 2,034 2,097 2,079 2,058


Disposition ('000 tonnes) Total Domestic 48 45 55 57 60 60 Exports 300 309 333 320 320 280 Total Disposition 348 354 388 377 380 340

Ending Stocks 25 28 19 28 16 22 Stocks/Use 7.3% 7.9% 5.0% 7.3% 4.3% 6.5%Source: StatsCan & AgCan with LeftField projections in bold

Canadian Dry Bean Supply & Disposition


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160018002000220024002600280030003200340036003800

Indi

an R

upee

s per

Qui

ntal

Yellow Pea Spot Prices - Mumbai, India

8101214161820222426

CDN

$ pe

r CW

T

Yellow Pea Grower Prices

ID/WA Sask NDak

4

9

14

19

24

29

34

CDN

$ pe

r CW

T

Green Pea Grower Prices

ID/WA Sask NDak

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CDN

$ pe

r CW

T

Green Lentil Grower Prices

Brewer ID/WA Lg Grn SK Richlea NDak

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Rupe

es p

er q

uint

al

Red Lentil Spot Price - India

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,8001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Cumulative Licensed Pea Exports

2016/17 2015/16 5-Yr Avg

Not including containers and exports through unlicensed facilities.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Cumulative Pea Farm Deliveries

2016/17 2015/16 5-Yr Avg

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Canadian Field Pea Visible Stocks

Terminal & In-Transit Primary Elevator 10-Yr Avg


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250300350400450500550600650700750

US$

per

tonn

e

Global Sunseed Values

CIF ARAG Offer Kansas NuSun Bid FOB Argentina

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

7.50

Turk

ish

Lira

per

kg

Whole Lentil Prices - Mersin, Turkey

Whole Red Whole Green

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

Turk

ish

Lira

per

kg

Processed Lentil Prices - Mersin

Split Red Red Football Split Yellow

2,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,000

Rupe

es p

er q

uint

al

Chana (Desi) Price - Jaipur

0.25

2.25

4.25

6.25

8.25

10.25

12.25

Turk

ish

Lira

per

kg

Kabuli Chickpea Prices - Mersin

7 mm 8 mm 9 mm 10 mm

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

Rupe

es p

er to

nne

Mustard Spot Price - Jaipur, India

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

US$

per

cwt

US Oil Sunflower Prices

ND/MN Composite Great Plains Composite

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

US$

per

cwt

Average US Birdseed Sunflower Bid


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500 600 700 800 900

1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400

US$

per

tonn

e

Veg Oil Prices NW Europe

Rape oil Sun oil Lin oil

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

US$

per

tonn

e

Veg Meal Prices NW Europe

Soy Meal Rape Meal Lin Meal

350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800

US$

per

tonn

e

Linseed CIF NW Europe

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

US$

per

ton

Minneapolis-Duluth Linseed Meal Price

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

US$

per

bus

hel

Red Wing, MN Daily Flax Bid

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

4001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Cumulative Licensed Flax Exports

2016/17 2015/16 5-Yr Avg

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Weekly Flax Farm Deliveries

2016/17 2015/16 10-Yr Avg

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Canadian Flax Visible Stocks

Terminal & In-Transit Primary Elevator 5-Yr Avg


9 of 9


200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Com

posi

te R

ate

Inde

x

Container Freight Indices

Howe Robinson ConTex

0.660

0.710

0.760

0.810

0.860

0.910

0.960

1.010

1.060

US$

per

C$

US Dollars per Cdn Dollar

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Rupe

es p

er d

olla

r

Indian Rupees per Cdn & US Dollar

Vs US dollar Vs Cdn dollar

0.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.00

Euro

s per

dol

lar

Euros per Cdn & US Dollar

US dollar Cdn dollar

1.40

1.90

2.40

2.90

3.40

3.90

4.40

Turk

ish

Lira

per

dol

lar

Turkish Lira per Cdn & US Dollar

US dollar Cdn dollar

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US$

per

cwt

Mexico Wholesale Bean Prices

Garbancillo Peruano Black Pinto

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

US$

per

tonn

e

Argentine Dry Bean Prices

Sm wht Med wht Lg wht Black Red

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

US$

per

tonn

e

Selected Bulk Ocean Freight

PNW-Jpn (Panamax) St Law-Rott (Handy) Duluth-Rott

Special Crops Update - Constant...

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