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Special Assessment Single Point of Disruption on Natural Gas Infrastructure Amir Najafzadeh, Senior Engineer, System Analysis SPP December, 2016
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Special Assessment
Single Point of Disruption on Natural Gas Infrastructure
Amir Najafzadeh, Senior Engineer, System AnalysisSPPDecember, 2016
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY2
• Generation impacted by fuel supply interruption: Pipeline segment outages Disruption of LNG transport operations Natural gas storage disruptions – 600+ facilities
• Aliso Canyon outage affecting generation capacity
• Argonne National Laboratory analysis on critical or significant Underground Natural Gas Storage, pipeline and Liquefied Natural Gas
Assessment Scope and Drivers
Presenter
Presentation Notes
(1)Depleted, (2) Salt Caverns, (3) Aquifers More than 15 UGS with than 1000 customer impact
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY3
I• Identify key
natural gas infrastructure facilities
• Determine the amount of generation capacity impacted
Development Approach
II• Evaluate the
resource adequacy impacts
• Consider contribution of dual-fuel generation
III• Conduct an
assessment leveraging available power system studies
IV• Provide
actionable recommendations
Presenter
Presentation Notes
II: Duel fuel and Assessment Area III: Transmission Planning and Operations Studies IV: help state and federal officials fully understand the risks to electric reliability and can develop appropriate mitigation policies and strategies.
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY4
• Approximately 30 members participating on the Advisory Group
• Various sectors represented: National Laboratories US and Canadian Natural Gas Associations Regional and FERC Staff Power pools, and utilities Independent System Operators and Regional Transmission Organizations
Advisory GroupComposition
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY5
1. Underground Natural Gas Facilities2. Pipeline Disruption Major Pipeline Cluster of Units
3. Compressor Source of Fuel4. LNG Facilities
Identify key natural gas infrastructure facilities
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY6
• Resource Adequacy• Power System Analysis (Deliverability and Capacity Transfer)• Existing Assessments Larger PCs/BAs Cross boundary PC/BA affected ERO-RAPA and NERC to form a question set
Analysis Method
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY7
• Comprehensive assessment of natural gas facilities and their impacts on electric sector
• Provide actionable recommendations
End Goal
Presenter
Presentation Notes
that help state and federal officials fully understand the risks to electric reliability and can develop appropriate mitigation policies and strategies.
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY8
Pipelines, Storage, and LNG Facilities
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY9
Schedule
- NERC BOT- Publish Report
- Draft report provided to PC/OC
May 2017March 2017
- Review PCs/TPsExisting Studies
Nov 2016
- Finalize scope - Form advisory group - Acquire data from Argonne
National Laboratory
Sep 2016
Report Development
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY10
Amir NajafzadehSenior Engineer, System Analysis404-446-9677 office | 404-330-4137 [email protected]
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY11
• The US used about 25 Tcf in 2014
• Over 550 active Natural Gas Storage (NGS) facilities
• 15 NGS facilities with over 2 million Mcf/d deliverability
By the Numbers
-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
- 2 4 6 8
10 12
GW
Natural Gas Capacity Growth (Year 5)
Capacity Growth Percentage Growth
• 10-15 NGS facilities identified for closer evaluation by NERC and Argonne National Labs (i.e., potential Aliso Canyon-like impacts)
• Over 30 GW of natural gas capacity growth within 5 years
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY12
Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities
