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Speaftp120620 Houze Clamart
Transcript of Speaftp120620 Houze Clamart
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Production Analysis
and Forecasting of
Shale Oil / Gas Formations
SPE France - Clamart
20th June 2012
Olivier Houzé
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Tight / Shale gas / CBM
Resource triangle for natural gas. Holditch, Tight Gas Sands, JPT, June 2006
1,000 md
10 md
0.1 md
0.001 md
SmallVolumes
Large
Volumes
Tight
Gas
Shale GasShale Oil Hydrates
CBM
High Q
Medium Q
LowQuality
H i g h e r
C o s t s
M o r e T e c
h n o l o g y
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Main Shale Plays
• Antrim• Avalon-Wolfberry
•
Bakken• Barnett
• Baxter• Cody
• Eagle Ford• Fayetteville
• Haynesville-Bossier
• Horn River• Lewis
•
Marcellus• Mississippian
• New Albany• Niobrara
• Poland• Woodford
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Unconventional Consortiums
• U of Adelaide
• U of Calgary
• Colorado School of Mines
• U of Curtin
• U of Oklahoma
• Penn State U
•
Texas A&M• U of Utah
• Core Lab
• Fekete
• ITF
• KAPPA
• RPSEA
•
South Australia Gov
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Common unconventional issues
• Extremely low permeability ► nonlinearities
• Multiple scales of porosity and diffusion
• Exotic diffusion effects
•
Stress dependence• Fractured horizontal wells
• Poor data (rare PDG’s, poor rates…)
• Under-defined problems
• We do not know what we do not know
• We may know when it is too late
• Metrics to rate Asset Managers
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Several scales of diffusion
micro-macro links:
Fick diffusion
macro-macro link:
Darcy or Forcheimer
Fracture
network
Desorption Micropores
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Unconventional Models v1.0
1 104 106 108100 days
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Analysis tools & proxys
• Straight lines (flow regimes)
• Ad-hoc decline curves
• Analytical models
pseudopressures & pseudotimes
•
Numerical models
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Straight lines
∆
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Advanced Analyses
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Ad-hoc decline curves
= . −∞−
= . −∞
Arps
Ilk et al.
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Analytical models
SRV Bounded
Trilinear
Exact geometry
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Advanced Analytical models
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Numerical Models
6000 cells
/ fracture
1000 cells
/ fracture
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Further Downscaling for UR
Min
t
t c
k A L
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Advanced Numerical Models
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Model stress
3
0 ln
P C k k
ref
ref
• Walsh
• Palmer and Mansoori
• Ostensen
3
0
0
00
0
0
111
1
P P
P
P P
P
M
K P P f
M
K
M k
k
mn
m
nk
k 20,
*2*
0
1ln1ln
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From shale gas to shale oil
• Compositional PVT & desorption model ?
• Relative permeabilities hysteresis ?
• IOR: Thermal process & CO2 injection ?• Non-Newtonian and threshold effects ?
• Need initial state ?
•
Need to match GOR curves ?
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Choice of the right proxy
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Playing with data
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Case study
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Changing Wellbore model
• Simultaneous correction for casing and tubing flows
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Straight line analysis
∆
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Analytical model
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Numerical model
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
G a s r a t e [ M s c f / D ]
0
1E+9
2E+9
0 100 200 300 400 500
Time [Day]
4000
9000
P r e s s u r e
[ p s i a ]
0.1 1 10 100 1000Time [Day]
0.1
1
10
0.1 1 10 100 1000Time [Day]
0.1
1
Ten more months of data !
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Old Straight line model
2000
6000
10000
14000
18000
G a s r a t e [ M s c f / D ]
5E+8
1.5E+9
2.5E+9
q g P ro d u c t io n 5 6 0 d a ys )
Qg
q g m o d e l
Q g m o d e l
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560
Time Da
4000
9000
P r e s s u r e [ p s i a ]
Pi
p F B H P 5 6 0 d a y s )
0.1 1 10 100 1000Time [Day]
1E+5
1E+6
Integral of normalized pressure
Integral of normalized pressure erivative
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Old analytical model
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Time [Day]
1E+5
1E+6
1E+7
4000
8000
12000
16000
G a s r a t
e [ M s c f / D ]
3E+8
8E+8
1.3E+9
1.8E+9
2.3E+9
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560
Time [Day]
4000
9000
P r e s s u r e [ p s i a ]
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Improved numerical model
0.1 1 10 100Time [Day]
0.1
1
10
3000
8000
13000
18000
G a s r a
t e [ M s c f / D ]
5E+8
1.5E+9
2.5E+9
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 6
Time [Day]
4000
9000
P r e s s u r e [ p s i a ]
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Comparison
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
G a s
r a t e [ M s c f / D ]
5E+8
1E+9
1.5E+9
2E+9
2.5E+9
3E+9
Equiv s ingle f racture
Ana ly t . new da ta
NL new da ta
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 6
Time [Day]
3000
7000
P r e s s u r e [ p s i a ]
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Lego™ development
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Challenging the basic model
• Interference during fracturing
• Interference during production
• Microseismics
• Production logs
• Ridiculously long linear flows
• Where is the water gone?
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Discrete Fractures Network
Courtesy of IFPEN
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Discrete Fractures network
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Modeling Fracture growth
Cou rtesy o f Rob Jeffrey, CSIRO
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Reserve calculations
Proved Developed (PUD) - 1P, 2P & 3P:
• Material Balance
• Analogs
•
Traditional Decline Curve Arps, Fetkovitch, etc
• New Decline Curves
Stretched exp., power-law exp., Dong, etc
• Analytical models
• Numerical models ?
Proved Undeveloped (PUD):
• Probabilistic methods
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Terminal decline from numerical model
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What’s next ?
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Thank you
Merci !
Danke !
Спасибо !
¡ Gracias !
Obrigado!
!
りがと
!Grazie!
Дякую!Зур рахмəт!