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Mesoscale Discussion 1564

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0340 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB/PARTS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN IA/EXTREME NORTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282040Z - 282245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO

INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO PORTIONS OF

WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA...WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY

SPREADING INTO FAR NORTHERN MO. WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

SHOWED A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN

NEBRASKA...AND AT 20Z THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WRN MN SSWWD

THROUGH NORTHWEST IA /30 W SPW/ TO 30 ESE OLU TO 15 WNW CNK.

MEANWHILE...AS INDICATED IN THE RECENT SWODY1...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

HAS RETURNED NWD THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LATE MORNING POSITION ALONG

THE MO/IA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE

INTERSECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT IN DODGE COUNTY NEB EWD THROUGH

WESTERN IA /ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/ TO NEAR DSM...AND THEN INTO

SOUTHEAST IA.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS BOOSTED AFTERNOON

TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 F...WHILE SLY WINDS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

HAVE RESULTED IN SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER

70S...RESULTING IN RECENT REDUCTION IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.

THIS COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C

PER KM/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3500

J PER KG/. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH SWLY 500-MB FLOW

OF 35 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR BULK SHEAR TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR

ORGANIZED STORMS. DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/KINEMATICS...

RECENT TRENDS IN THE CU FIELD ACROSS ERN NEB AND WEST-CENTRAL/SWRN

IA DO NOT INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER

MCS AND APPARENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING PRESENT ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA PER

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MEANWHILE...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB MAY BE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN

LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ADVANCING NEWD

FROM NERN CO. ALTHOUGH MOST SHORT-TERM MODELS LACK ROBUST

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE APPROACHING

DEEP-LAYER ASCENT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT

ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO SWRN IA BY 22-23Z.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/28/2015

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 40909663 41559618 41829528 41859380 41569246 41009175

40659179 40349301 40239443 40089522 40049591 40099655

40309697 40909663

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Page last modified:

July 28, 2015

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