Spatial social media response to live events. The Milano Fashion Week case. Presentation at LocWeb
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Transcript of Spatial social media response to live events. The Milano Fashion Week case. Presentation at LocWeb
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Spatial Social Media Response to Live Events
The Milano Fashion Week
Marco Brambilla, Stefano Ceri, Florian Daniel, Gianmarco Donetti
[email protected] marcobrambi LocWeb Workshop @ WWW 2017, Perth, Australia
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion WeekPope
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Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion WeekPope
Ele
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nGuess what
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion WeekPope
Ele
ctio
nGuess what
He gets elected anyway
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Concerts?
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Fashion?
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Gente guarda cell in fashion
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Gente guarda cell in fashion
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Gente guarda cell in fashion
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Research Questions
“Are live events still relevant?
• Can online visibility be described simply by how famous is the brand?
• Do space and time still matter?• Can we predict how people behave in time/space within
events?
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Method
• Collection of domain knowledge from field experts• Extraction of social network content• Popularity, space and time analysis of brand impact• Correlation across dimensions• Prediction of visibility statistics
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Domain Experts
Official calendar
Posts Posts Classified by Brand
query wrangling
Brands& events
Data storage
Data Acquisition Process
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
The DataIn fashion
Prominence of InstagramHigher geolocation percentage106k
Tweets
6.5%Geo-located
556kInstagrams
28%Geo-located
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Spatial Response AnalysisAnalyze the social media response to the events with respect to the geographical location of posting
Within the city of the event (Milan)
Two types of signals:1. The official calendar events2. The geographical positioning of posts
of social media (geolocated ones)
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Spatial Response Analysis1 week before the eventThe week of the event1 week after the event
Blue dots: social media postsRed stars: physical locations of shows
[Day by day animation]
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Spatial Response AnalysisMethod:
Grid over the cityDensity of posts in cells
Measures:Gini coefficient# of alive cells (1%+ posts)# of Active cells (10%+ posts)# of strongly active cells (20%+ posts)Distance of posts vs. event location
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Spatial Response AnalysisTemporal granularity:
Within 3h, 6h, 24h, and whole period
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Spatial Response Analysis
42 features describing geographical behaviour of each brand.
OVERALL: SINGLE BRAND:
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
All brands – Geo responseK-Means clustering result
Spatial response analysisYellow, with low average distance, the most concentratedRed, with average distances slightly higherGreen, with the highest results for average distance, the most dispersedBlue, a single element with highest number of alive cells
K-means clustering in a PC85-dimensional space
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Time response analysisAnalyze the social media response to the events with respect to the axis of time
2 types of signals:1. The official calendar events2. The volume of posts on
social media
VersaceNumber of posts: 4358 on Instagram, 389 on Twitter
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Time response analysisStudy the causality relationship between the events calendar signal and the social media signal through a series of Granger Causality tests
VersaceNumber of posts: 4358 on Instagram, 389 on Twitter
VersaceGrange Causality tests result
GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Time response analysis
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Time response analysis
K-means clustering
All brands – Granger Causality tests resultK-Means clustering – 4 Cluster Centroids
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Clustered Time response analysisAll brands
Granger Causality tests resultAll brands – Granger Causality tests resultK-Means clustering – 4 Cluster Centroids
Yellow, with high immediate responseRed, with response peak delayed at 15 minutesGreen, with delayed response peak at 45-60 minutes Blue, with mild initial response and a 3 hours lagged response peak
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Time Response PredictionBuild a prediction model for the cluster membership of each brand based on the Granger tests results, given features related to the events and brands
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Time Response PredictionRandom Forest: accuracy close to 62%, but only a few “really” wrong.
All brands – Granger Causality tests result
Ground Truth from K-Means clustering
All brands – Granger Causality tests result
Prediction of the cluster membership
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
All brands – Popularity responseK-Means clustering result
Brand Popularity ClusteringFeatures:1. # Posts on Instagram2. # Likes on Instagram3. # Comments on Instagram4. # Tweets5. # Likes on Twitter6. # Retweets
K-means clustering
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Cluster comparison Accuracy = 44.6%
Spatial clustering
Temporal clustering
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Cluster comparisonAccuracy = 41.5%
Popularity clustering
Temporal clustering
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Cluster comparison
Spatial clustering
Popularity clustering
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Comparing the different dimensions
Comparison Accuracy
Time VS Space 44.6%
Time VS Pop 41.5%
Space VS Pop 38.6%
Time
Space
Popularity
CONFUSION MATRIX:
Tim
e clu
ster
s
Space clusters
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Conclusions ChallengesA complete and well-defined brand categorization is possible only taking into account all three dimensions:
PopularitySpace Time
• Imprecise geo-positioning• Re-posts• Coverage of non-geotagged
content• User profile• Other posts from same user• Content analysis (e.g., image
similarity)• Social science and behavioural
aspects
Brambilla, Ceri, Daniel, Donetti. Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events. The Case of the Milano Fashion Week
Spatial Analysis of Social Media Response to Live Events.The Milano Fashion Week
Marco Brambilla @marcobrambi [email protected]://datascience.deib.polimi.it http://home.deib.polimi.it/marcobrambi
THANKS! QUESTIONS?