Space Debris: From the Ivory Tower to Creating Public Awareness

Ward MuntersInstitute for International Law & Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies, KU Leuven

Space Debris: The Problem

Median speed between twospace objects colliding

= 12 km/s= +‐ 40,000 km/h

Hypervelocity impacts (> 6km/s)

Space Debris: The Problem

GEO

LEO

• ~ # Debris• >10cm: ~ 30.000• >1cm: ~ 700.000• >1mm ~ 170.000.000

Source: ESA

KESSLER SYNDROME?

Source: NASA

C975: 11%‐ 4000 catalogued‐ 40000 LNTs

C850: 1%‐ 16000 catalogued‐ 160,000 LNTs

Modeled time evolution of afragmentation cloud generatedby the explosion of anAriane‐1 H‐10 upper stageon Nov. 13, 1986

FACTORS IMPACTING SUBSTANTIVE INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS?

[T]ime + [L]ocation + [S]tateT1L2S1

T1L1S2

T1L3S1

TIMEObject Population Flux‐Debris population (LNTs)‐Object population‐MicroMeteoroids‐Collisional Reservoirs (Graveyard)

PMD Cycles‐25 years‐5 years‐…

Variable Decay Rates‐Atmospheric variability

Tech Development‐Varying capability levels

Air and Suborbital Traffic

Launch Traffic

Human Presence

Regime Change

Space Weather…

LOCATIONObject Population Flux‐Debris population (LNTs)‐Object population‐MicroMeteoroids‐Collisional Reservoirs (Graveyard)

PMD Cycles‐25 years‐5 years‐…

Variable Decay Rates‐Atmospheric variability

Tech Development‐Varying capability levels

Air and Suborbital Traffic

Launch Traffic

Human Presence

Regime Change

Space Weather…

STATESignatory Status?

Practice‐Persistent Objector?

Standard of Development

Historical ContributionsCurrent Capabilities

Civilian/Military?

National Legislation?

‘Complex Geometry’…

P x C: Spatiotemporal

4D‐Array of continuously variable risk Variable obligations?

4D‐Arrayed Orbital Space

Collision Risk:

The Ivory Tower

Create Public Awareness!

Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space?

Prevention of Space Debris?

Create Political Awareness!