SOYBEANS CORN · 2020. 12. 31. · March all supported grains and oilseeds this week. •...
Transcript of SOYBEANS CORN · 2020. 12. 31. · March all supported grains and oilseeds this week. •...
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
What you need to know for the week ending December 31, 2020 • The 2020 grain markets started quietly and ended with fireworks,
bookending one of the most volatile years on record in between. Corn
finished with its largest weekly gain of the year as the March contract
closed 33 cents higher than we left it Christmas Eve afternoon. Front-
month March soybeans had their 2nd biggest week of the year, closing 46
½ cents higher and settling over $13.00 for the first time since the
summer of 2014. On the year, March 2021 corn closed 73 cents higher
(96 cents higher than March 2020 corn on this date a year ago) while
March 2021 soybeans closed $3.39 higher ($3.55 higher than March
2020 beans on this date a year ago). The range on March 2021 beans
from its high (today) to its low (April 24) was a whopping $4.96.
Between record cash basis levels to start the year, African Swine Fever,
U.S./China trade negotiations, COVID-19, ethanol destruction, the Iowa
derecho, record demand, and now South American weather concerns, if
2020 taught us anything about grain markets its simply that things can
change more quickly than you’d like to believe. Good luck to everyone
as we navigate through 2021.
• The trend is up until the markets tell us otherwise. If you strictly trade
technicals, the trade action in the soybean market last Thursday and this
past Monday would have signaled at least a short-term top due to a
shooting star followed by a key reversal lower. Well, markets tend to
have a sick sense of humor, exemplified by the bean market closing over
40 cents higher the very next day. Continued dry, warm weather
forecasted in Argentina, chatter of corn demand out of China, a weak
U.S. dollar, and reports that Argentina is halting corn exports until mid-
March all supported grains and oilseeds this week.
• Argentina’s corn crop is only rated 20% good-to-excellent, as reported
by Soybean & Corn Advisor. Argentina has a large variation in
planting/harvest dates from north to south, as corn last week was only
about 61% planted vs 80% on average, while 20% of the nationwide corn
crop is pollinating, which is about half of normal due to late planting.
Weather the next few weeks will be extremely important to the crop in
Argentina as well as Brazil’s first crop soybeans. The current forecast is
stable for Brazil while Argentina trends hot and dry.
• The WASDE report on January 12 will be the next big event for the
market other than daily weather forecasts and export reports. Most of
the trade is expecting lower U.S. carryouts due to increased U.S. demand
and possibly lower final yields. Global ending stocks are also expected to
decline as South American weather has been less than ideal, especially
for Argentina. 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks estimates peaked in early
summer for corn, when USDA at that time estimated a 3.3+ billion
bushel corn carryout. They’re currently at 1.7 billion ahead of the
January report. Expected soybean carryout peaked in August at 610
million bushels. It currently sits at 175 million bushels.
Mar ‘21 Dec ‘21
$4.84 $4.34 ¾
+$0.33 +$0.10 ¼
Mar ‘21 Nov ‘21
$13.11 $11.11 ¾
+$0.46 ½ +$0.28 ½
COT Export Sales
WASDE
SPREADS (From Mar 2021 Futures)
July ’21
SOYBEANS
July ‘21
CORN
WEEKLY CLOSES & CHANGES
AT-THE-MONEY CALL OPTIONS
CORN SOYBEANS Feb $4.85 $0.1325 Feb $13.10 $0.3600 Mar $4.85 $0.2050 Mar $13.10 $0.5025 May $4.80 $0.3275 May $13.00 $0.7175 July $4.80 $0.3850 Jul $13.00 $0.8125
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
USELESS FACT OF THE WEEK
Originally, the Eiffel Tower was going to be erected
in Barcelona, but the project was rejected because
citizens thought it was an eyesore.
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER
1 Week Forecast (mm)
Past 30-Day Precipitation Anomaly (mm)
1 Week Forecast (mm)
Past 30-Day Precipitation Anomaly (mm)
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
MARCH 2021 CORN
TECHNICALS
20-Day Moving Average $4.38 ½ Slow Stochastic Status Overbought
50-Day Moving Average $4.27 Stochastic %K 98.29%
100-Day Moving Average $4.02 Stochastic %D 97.86%
Contract High $4.85 ¾ Next Gap Higher N/A
Contract Low $3.31 ½ Next Gap Lower $3.57 ½ - 3.60
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
MARCH 2021 SOYBEANS
TECHNICALS
20-Day Moving Average $12.15 ¼ Slow Stochastic Status Overbought
50-Day Moving Average $11.58 ¾ Stochastic %K 96.32%
100-Day Moving Average $10.71 ¾ Stochastic %D 93.01%
Contract High $13.20 ¾ Next Gap Higher N/A
Contract Low $8.24 ¾ Next Gap Lower $9.05 ¾ - 9.06 ¾
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
MANAGED MONEY FUND POSITION
CORN
SOYBEANS
Position
+247,108 (as of 12/21)
Change From LW
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Position
+178,352 (as of 12/21)
Change From LW
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
FRONT MONTH FUTURES – 10-YEAR NEARBY CHARTS