Soybean Production Strategies Facing Global and Regional Climate Change

8/9/2019 Soybean Production Strategies Facing Global and Regional Climate Change

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SOYBEAN PRODUCTION STRATEGIES FACING GLOBAL ANDREGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE

E. Sierra 1 y 2, R. Costa 1 y Elsa Lpez 2.

1 Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina. [email protected] School of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina [email protected] ;

[email protected]

During the coming decades, South-American soybeans production will be as important in this oilseedmarket as it has been in the recent past. Together, MERCOSUR and Bolivia represent 49.8 and 57.8

percent of the world production and exports respectively, figures that give a scope on the strategicimportance of these countries in the world market. South American agriculture will have to overcome thechallenges posed by the climate change process, both in the region and in the globe. With the objective ofidentifying possible climate changes and designing productive strategies to achieve the needed adaptation,

an analysis has been done on existing climate change studies, complementing this with a study off theexisting climate change trends in the continent, using various South American and international datasources. It was noticed that a rise in rain patterns has occurred in the soybean areas of Bolivia, Paraguay,Uruguay, west of the Pampean region and north of Argentine and north and center regions of Brazil. This

pattern changes may foster the growth in the seeding acres of the benefited areas but may also require thedevelopment of new technologies to maintain the productivity in those areas where a precipitationreduction trend can be viewed. In the global perspective, the global warming process seems to beaffecting the South American climate much less than expected, and therefore soybean production may,then, not be affected by this process. As a concluding remark, it can be said that technological innovationmay help increasing production during the expected climate change process.

Keywords : MERCOSUR, Climate Change, Global Warming, production

Introduction

Since the sixties, the south american soybean production has increased relentlessly.

Together, MERCOSUR and Bolivia represent 49.8 and 57.8 percent of the world production and exportsrespectively, figures that give a scope on the strategic importance of these countries in the world market.South American Agriculture will have to overcome the challenges posed by the climate change process,

both in the region and in the globe.

Nevertheless, South American agriculture will have to overcome the challenges posed by the climatechange process, both in the region and in the globe.

With the objective of identifying possible climate changes and designing productive strategies to achievethe needed adaptation, an analysis has been done on existing climate change studies, complementing thiswith a study off the existing climate change trends in the continent, using various South American andinternational data sources.

Materials and Methods

Climate data from NOAA/CIRES, the Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional (National Weather Service) ofArgentina and other sources were employed.

Soybean production data from FAO, USDA, Secretaria de Agricultura, Ganaderia Pesca y Alimentos de laRepblica Argentina (Secretary of Agriculture, Livestock, Fishing and Food of Argentina) and other

sources were employed.


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The statistical analysis of the data was carried on by means of the methodology described by Snedecorand Cochrane (1978).

Furthermore, an exhaustive revision of the bibliography about the soybean crop in its relation to globalclimate change was done.

Results

Causes of soybean crop advance in South America.

Several causes explain the notable advance of soybean crop in South America.

Figure 1 Increase of soybean growing area (has) 1961-2007.

First, South America has one of the more extensive reserves of cultivable lands in the planet.

South American Continent has an area of 17, 8 millions of km 2, which represents 12 % of the planetscontinental area, but its population of approximately 360 million people, represents only 6 % of worldtotal population of 6500 millions.

Figure 2 Increase of soybean yield (kg/ha) 1961-2007.


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South American mean population density is only 20 people/km 2, half of world average of 40 people/km2and hardly one seventh of Chinas 140 people/km 2.

According to Koeppen/ Trewartha climate classification (Koeppen, 1931, Trewartha.1968) the SouthAmerican Continent has extensive areas with climates and soils suitable for soybean growing.

The bolivian soybean area (Department of Santa Cruz de la Sierra), the north of brazilian soybean area(States of Piaui, Tocantins, Maranhao, Bahia, Mato Grosso do Sul y Goias) observe a savanna climatewhich combines a thermal regime without frosts, with high temperatures during all the year, with agenerous rainfall regime, concentrated in the spring and summer months, providing a favourableenvironment for soybean growing.

Figure 3 Increase of soybean production (Tm) 1961-2007.

Although not advisable from the sanitary point of view, this environment allows carrying on two harvestsin the year: one in spring-summer and the other in autumn-winter.

The east of Paraguays soybean area ( Departments of Alto Parana, Itapua, Canindey, Caaguaz,Caazap, Amambay and San Pedro), the centre-east and south of Brazils soybean area, (Estates of MinasGerais, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul , Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul), most of theargentinean soybean area ( Provinces of Salta, Tucuman, Santiago del Estero, Chaco , Cordoba, Santa Fe,Entre Rios, San Luis, La Pampa and Buenos Aires) and the western of Uruguay of soybean area observe asubtropical deciduous forest climate. Western zones observe the Cw type, with warm summer andsummer rain, while central and eastern zones observe the Cf type, with warmth summer and rains all overthe year.

From the sanitary point of view, most of the south american soybean area offers the advantage of a dryautumn-winter season which cuts the pathogens cycle, decreasing disease concentration, provided nowinter growing is carried on. A proof of that is the difficulty shown by the asian soybean rust in

penetrating the soybean areas of Argentina and Uruguay.

Thanks to this combination of positive factors, south american soybean area has experienced a constantadvance. In the mid seventies, it exceeded the asian soybean growing area and, little after 2000, itexceeded the soybean growing area of the North American Continent, becoming first in the world (Figure1).

Furthermore, yields continued growing (Figure 2), making production to increase to more than 100million TM (Figure 3).


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Climate change potential impact on soybean global production

The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the possible impacts onagriculture shows the risk that the worldwide soybeans production be affected in a differential way,according to the region which is considered.

Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asiaas it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapidurbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development. It is projected that crop yields could increaseup to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by themid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth andurbanization, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries.

Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, the lengthof growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, areexpected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in thecontinent. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large lakes

due to rising water temperatures, which may be exacerbated by continued over-fishing. Many studiesconfirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because ofmultiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. Some adaptation to current climate variability is taking place,however, this may be insufficient for future changes in climate.

In North America, moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increaseaggregate yields of rain fed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. Majorchallenges are projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or depend on highlyutilised water resources. Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, morewinter flooding, and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources.

A wide ranging impacts of changes in current climate have been documented in Europe: retreatingglaciers, longer growing seasons, shift of species ranges, and health impacts due to a heat wave of

unprecedented magnitude. The observed changes described above are consistent with those projected forfuture climate change. Nearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by somefuture impacts of climate change and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors. Climatechange is expected to magnify regional differences in Europes natural resources and assets.

The future of soybean growing in South America

Increase of soybean yield is expected as a response to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration(Magrin et al, 2007).

In addition, positive climate impacts were reported for the Argentinean Pampas region, where increases in precipitation led to increases in crop yields close to 38% in soybean, 18% in maize, 13% in wheat and12% in sunflower (Magrin et al., 2005).

Nevertheless, some studies point that precipitation regime in western argentinean soybean area (West ofthe Buenos Aires Province, La Pampa Province, San Luis Province and Cordoba Province) is decreasing,generating the risk of a high frequency of dry episodes (Sierra et al, 1994 y 1995).

Travasso et al. (2006) reported that, in South Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina, the negative impacts offuture climate on maize and soybean production could be offset by changing planting dates and addingsupplementary irrigation.

Therefore, technological development and increase of irrigation will be very important for the continuityin the advance of the soybean production in the South American Continent.

Projected to be one of the main drivers of future land-use change, the area planted to soybeans in SouthAmerica is expected to increase from 38 million has in 2003/04 to 59 million has in 2019/20 (MaartenDros, 2004).


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According to a statistic projection made by the authors, by 2020, south american soybean production willreach 170 million TM, representing 53,2 % of world production, while North American Continents

production will represent 34,2 %, and Asian Continent will represent 11% of the world total, respectively(Table 1 and Figure 4).

Table 1 Projection of soybean regional and global production to 2020.

Parameter World NorthAmerica South America AsiaRest of the

Worldr 0,987 0,809 0,972 0,850 0,509

r2 (%) 97,49 65,38 94,54 72,32 25,91Annual Increment

(Tm/Year) 7.540.270 1.751.138 5.158.836 557.062 73.234

Production at Year2020 (Metric Ton) 320.652.684 109.736.755 170.560.086 35.264.836 5.091.007

% of WorldProduction at Year

2020100,0 34,2 53,2 11,0 1,6

Therefore, the South American Continent will very likely continue increasing its importance as leader inworld soybean production during the next decades.

Figure 4 Projection of world and regional soybean production (Tm) 2010-2025.

Nevertheless, it must be considered that this process will generate an environmental risk of considerable proportions.

Direct and indirect conversion of natural habitats to accommodate this expansion amounts to 21.6 millionhas (Magrin et al, 2006). Habitats with the greatest predicted area losses are the Cerrado (9.6 million ha),dry and humid Chaco (the largest dry forest in South America, which covers parts of Argentina, Paraguay,Bolivia and Brazil; 6.3 million ha), Amazon transition and rain forests (3.6 million ha), Atlantic forest(1.3 million ha), Chiquitano forest (transition between Amazonian forest and Chaco forest; 0.5 millionha) and Yungas forest (0.2 million ha).

This massive deforestation will have negative impacts on the biological diversity and ecosystemcomposition of South America as well as having important implications for regional and local climateconditions (Magrin et al, 2006).

Conclusions


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In the global perspective, the global warming process seems to be affecting the south american climatemuch less than expected, and therefore soybean production may, then, not be affected by this process.

However, it will be necessary to pay attention to the negative environmental effects that the advance ofsoybean growing over natural environments may cause.

As a concluding remark, it can be said that technological innovation may help increasing productionduring the expected climate change process..Acknowledgment

We thank to Florencia M. Sosa ([email protected]) for the translation and linguistic correction ofthis manuscript.

References

Kppen, W. 1931. Climatologa. Fondo de Cultura Econmica. Mxico. 478 pp.Magrin, G.O., M.I. Travasso and G.R. Rodrguez, 2005: Changes in climate and crop production duringthe 20th century inArgentina. Climatic Change, 72, 229-249.

Magrin, G., C. Gay Garca, D. Cruz Choque, J.C. Gimnez, A.R. Moreno, G.J. Nagy, C. Nobre and A.Villamizar, 2007: Latin America. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 581-615.Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Paris, France.Maarten Dros, J., 2004: Managing the Soy Boom: Two Scenarios of Soy ProductionExpansion in South America.AID Environment,Amsterdam, 67 pp.Sierra, E.M., R.H. Hurtado y L. Spescha. 1994. Corrimiento de las isoyetas anuales medias decenales enla Regin Pampeana 1941-1990. Rev.Fac.Agr, 14(2):139-144.Sierra, E.M; M.Conde Prat y Silvia Perez. 1995. La migracin de cultivos de granos como indicador delcambio climtico 1941-93 en la Regin Pampeana Argentina. Rev.Fac.Agr, 15(2-3):171-176.

Sierra E.M. 2006. Agro climatologa de la roya asitica de la soja en Sudamrica. Roya asitica de la sojaen Amrica El Libro. Editor/ Compilador: L. Daniel Ploper. Buenos Aires. Argentina. Pginas delCaptulo: 31-35. Tomo1.Ao de Edicin: 2006.ISBN: 987-21283-3-2.Snedecor, W.G. and G.W. Cochrane. 1978. Statistical Methods. Iowa State University Press, 1989, 540

pages.Travasso, M.I., G.O. Magrin, W.E. Baethgen, J.P. Castao, G.R. Rodriguez, J.L. Pires,A. Gimenez, G.Cunha and M. Fernandes, 2006:Adaptation measures for maize and soybean in south eastern outhAmerica. AIACCWorking Paper No. 28, 38 pp.http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/working_papers.html.Trewartha, G.T. 1968. An introduction to climate, Fourth Edition. Mc Graw-Hill, New York. 408 pp.

Soybean Production Strategies Facing Global and Regional Climate Change

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