SOVIET & RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS. Mackinder’s Heartland Theory Drawn from Ratzel’s geographic view...
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Transcript of SOVIET & RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS. Mackinder’s Heartland Theory Drawn from Ratzel’s geographic view...
Mackinder’s Heartland Theory
Whoever controls “Heartland” (Pivot Area) can control world
The “Great Game” between Britain, Russia, 1800s-1900s
Maritime powers need controlin “Rimland” (Inner Crescent), esp. Middle East
Prevent Russo-German allianceor Russian control of Germany
Containment Theory
Extension of Mackinder
Isolation of Soviets after 1917
George Kennan (State Dep’t)resurrects after WWII
Encircle USSR with militarybases, treaties, alliances
View of Communist “Red Bloc” during Cold War
Lumping failed to recognizedifferences among Communists,
or local causes of conflict(Vietnam War 1960s)
NATO and Warsaw Pact
NATO not all democratic(Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey)
Brezhnev Doctrine preventsdemocratization in East
U.S. saw Soviets as “totalitarian,” rightist dictators as “authoritarian”
Greece 1968
Czechoslovakia 1968
WW III possible flashpoints
West Germany/West Berlin(1948, 1961)
Yugoslavia (1946, 1980s)
Cuba (1961, 1962)
Iran (1946, 1980)
Fears of Soviet invasion?
Military budgetsBoth economies reliant onmilitary-industrial complex
U.S. forced Sovietsto keep up? (Star Wars 1983).
Military spending stillup since Cold War
National Missile Defenseas US nuclear umbrella
Third World • US-USSR indirect “hot wars”
• Struggles mainly nationalist not Communist
• Third World competed for aid until Cold War ended
• East-West competition in culture
Cuba
Vietnam
Star Trek
Third World Soviets pro-”liberation” in Cuba,
Vietnam, Angola, South Africa, Chile,
Nicaragua, Palestine, etc.
East German posters
China Rivalry Mao felt Khrushchevsold out Communism
Competed in Third World
Cultural Revolution inChina, 1960s
China Card, 1972 Nixon visits Moscow,Détente started
Nixon visits China as counterweight
Russian fear of West,East teaming up
Also saw West as protection from China
On the sixth day of Hate Week, after the processions, the speeches, the shouting, the singing, the banners… the rolling of drums and squealing of trumpets, the tramp of marching feet, the grinding of the caterpillars of tanks, the roar of massed planes, the booming of guns… at just this moment it had been announced that Oceania was not after all at war with Eurasia. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Eurasia was an ally. There was, of course, no admission that any change had taken place. Merely it became known, with extreme suddenness and everywhere at once, that Eastasia and not Eurasia was the enemy…. Oceania was at war with Eastasia: Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.
Soviet military overextendedbeyond Russian Empire
Too far to(Muslim) South
Lost in Afghanistan
Too far to(Catholic) West
Unraveled inPoland, Baltics
Too far to EastDivertedby China
Atlanticists vs. Eurasianists(both want Russia as great power)
Atlanticists(Modernizers)
Lean to West
Russia European
Statist
Eurasianists(Slavophiles)
Mistrust West
Unique E-W bridge
Nationalist
Russia’s geopolitical fears revisited
Threatfrom EastResurgentChina
Threat from WestNATO expansion,
U.S. missile defense
Threat from SouthMuslim fundamentalism
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 2004
New members:
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Bulgaria
Not yet:
Croatia
Macedonia
Albania
Russian fears rekindled
Historic buffer vs. West shrunk- Expanded NATO border on Russia
Kaliningrad enclave cut off by NATO
NATO intervenes vs. Serbs in ex-Yugo.-Russians balance force in Kosovo
U.S. troops in Hungary, Bosnia, Kosovo
Iraq Crisis, 2003
Russia sides with Germany, France, Belgium- Mackinder theory- Like brief Soviet alliance with France, 1935-39
Eastern European NATO members side with U.S. -Polish troops head up sector, others send non-combat - Polls show majority public opposition (all but Romania)
Historic realignment underway?- Independent Western Europe with Russia- U.S. sphere of influence in UK, East-Central Europe
Government Positions on Iraq War, 2004Blue: Supported war (some withdrew 2005) Green: Did not oppose war
Red: Opposed war Gray: Neutral
In E. Europepolls, onlyRomanians
backed their government’s
pro-warposition
New U.S. military bases
1. Gulf War, 1991
2. Yugoslav Wars, 1995-99
3. Afghan War, 2001
4. Iraq War, 2003
Base clusters left over from recent wars creating a
U.S. “sphere of influence” between Europe, Russia
and East Asia?
Russian preferences
Independent European military force-Taking over ex-Yugo. peacekeeping
“Decoupling” of U.S., Western Europe
Or Russia becoming full NATO member
Reassurance for Putin?
Partnership for Peace
Future NATO membership for Russia, CIS?
U.S.-Russian oil alliance vs. OPEC
Allow free hand in Chechnya, Georgia
Putin vs. Muslims
Crushed Muslim secession in Chechnya, curbed in Tatarstan
Fought Muslim rebels in Uzbek., Tajik. Allowed U.S. troops in Central Asia, Georgia after 9/11
Continued verbal support forIraqi, Palestinian people
Putin and East Asia
Visited China, placated Eurasianists
China better economy, huge market
1/4 million Chinese illegals in Siberia
Asian companies in Siberia
Japan talks over trade, Kuril Is. claims
Samuel Huntington theory of Western, Islamic, Slavic, etc. “blocs” in conflict with each other.
“Clash of Civilizations” theory
Fails to recognize differences within each “bloc.”
Most sources of conflict are local (often ethnic), not religious.
Often blames the victimfor the conflict (Chechens, etc).
West shares responsibility(military aid arms both sides)
“Clash of Civilizations” theory
EuropeanUnion
Began as EuropeanEconomic
Community(EEC), 1957.
EU decision 1988;
Implemented 1994
euro
EuropeanUnion
10 new members join, 2004
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Czech Rep.
Slovakia
Hungary
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
2007:
Romania
Bulgaria
Turkey ???
A “Blue Curtain”?
Catholic/Protestant West
Orthodox/Muslim East
Who will be welcomein the EU “club”?
Orthodox Greece in EU
A “Blue Curtain”?Eastern Europe asa “Mexico” for West?
Less developed economy;Reserve for labor?
Bordertowersmovedfrom Hungaryto Austria
Religious minorities
Orthodox stuck in West:
Serbs in Croatia (expelled)
Russians in Kaliningrad
Russians in Baltic States