Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

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© OECD/IEA 2013 Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency 2 October 2013

description

The ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – along with China and India – are shifting the centre of gravity of the global energy system towards Asia. Energy demand in Southeast Asia has expanded by two-and- a-half times since 1990, its rate of growth among the fastest in the world. Economic and demographic trends point to further growth, lifting the region’s energy use per capita from just half of the global average today. But how will Southeast Asia’s fuel mix evolve? And what will the region’s supply and demand balance mean for oil, gas and coal trade? The International Energy Agency, in co-operation with the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, has studied these issues in consultation with ASEAN member governments and leading commentators, industry representatives and international experts. This special report, in the World Energy Outlook series, presents the findings.

Transcript of Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

Page 1: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

© OECD/IEA 2013

Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director

International Energy Agency 2 October 2013

Page 2: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

© OECD/IEA 2013

Southeast Asia: the energy context

Southeast Asia has emerged as a key player in the global energy system

growing thirst for energy driven by sustained economic & social development

Diverse set of countries with vast differences in patterns of energy use

Many of the individual countries increasingly reliant on energy imports

although region as a whole is rich in energy resources

Fundamentals suggest energy needs will continue to grow

economy to triple by 2035, despite some headwinds at present

population of 600 million to expand by almost one-quarter by 2035

per-capita energy use is still low & 134 million people lack access to electricity

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Southeast Asia Energy Overview

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Mtoe Other ASEAN

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Philippines

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Southeast Asia’s energy needs will continue to grow

Growth in ASEAN primary energy demand

Southeast Asia’s energy demand increases by over four-fifths in the period to 2035, or by more than the current consumption of Japan

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Energy demand per capita as share of OECD (right axis)

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The power sector is fundamental to the energy outlook of Southeast Asia

ASEAN incremental electricity generation by fuel, 2011-2035

Electricity generation increases by more than the current power output of India; coal emerges as the fuel of choice, accounting for 58% of the growth

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Renewables enter into the mainstream

Renewables-based power increases by more than the current total power output of Indonesia & Thailand combined, although barriers to deployment need to be tackled

ASEAN electricity generation from renewables

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Net imports

Net exports

Production: oil in decline & gas struggling to keep up with demand

ASEAN oil and gas balances

Southeast Asia becomes the world’s fourth-largest oil importer (behind China, India and the EU) & sees a vastly reduced surplus of natural gas for export

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Rising oil & gas imports will have high economic costs

Net oil and gas imports as a share of demand

The region imports 75% of its oil in 2035, as spending on oil imports triples to $240 billion; net revenues from gas exports fall by more than three-quarters

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ASEAN

2011 Net oil importer, net gas exporter

Net oil & gas exporter

Net oil & gas importer

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Indonesia: a dominant player in global coal markets

Indonesia’s coal production

Indonesia accounts for 85% of Southeast Asia’s coal production; it remains the world’s top exporter of steam coal – by a very large margin – through to 2035

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Steam coal exports as share of world steam coal trade (right axis)

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Fossil-fuel subsidies continue to distort energy markets

Value of fossil-fuel subsidies in Southeast Asia, 2007-2012

Fossil-fuel subsidies amounted to $51 billion in 2012; despite recent reforms –

notably in Indonesia & Malaysia – they continue to distort energy markets

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Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised

Economically viable efficiency measures can cut the region’s energy use in 2035 by almost 15%, or more than the current energy use of Thailand

ASEAN primary energy demand in the Efficient ASEAN Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario

Savings in 2035

Coal 100 Mtce

Oil 0.7 mb/d

Gas 28 bcm

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Improved energy efficiency brings economic gains

In 2035, spending on oil imports is cut by $30 billion, while revenues from exports of

natural gas & coal are increased by $30 billion; regional GDP is boosted by about 2%

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Increase in GDP

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Southeast Asia: an emerging giant of the global energy market

Southeast Asia – along with China & India – is shifting the centre of gravity of the global energy system to Asia

Its outlook for energy production & demand has implications that will be felt well beyond the region

Developing policies to improve efficiency & attract investment will be vital for enhancing energy security, affordability & sustainability

The region faces global challenges, underscoring the need to enhance cooperation intra-regionally & with international partners