Southeast Asia : Crouching Tiger or

Hidden Dragon?

Presented by Kanwarat Suasaad 534 12029 24 Tewika Kasemsuk 534 12201 24

Author : Vikhram Nehru

Formerly Chief Economist and Director, Poverty Reduction, Economic Management, Financial and Private Sector Development in the East Asia Region of the World Bank

A consultant for the East Asia Region of the World Senior Associate in the Asia

Program and Bakrie Chair in Southeast Asian Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

SOUTH EAST ASIA’S MAP

All share strategic location and access to natural resourceEconomic rapid growth help integrationPolitical stability will reshaping global balance of power

Conclusion : The continued development is important to the world

Combined GDP $1.9 trillion [bigger than India]

Population Almost 600 million people

Average per capita income

Near China

Countries average a growth rate of more than 5 percent per year

In the last decade

If southeast Asia were one country

Would be the world’s 9th largest economy

Would be the most trade-dependent

Would be one of the world’s consistently good performer

Economic Promise

1970: many countries were singled out for their economic promise

“Tiger Cubs”

“Tiger Cubs”

“Tiger Cubs”

“Tiger Cubs”

“Asian Tiger”

Middle Income Economy Middle Income Economy

Middle Income Economy

Middle Income Economy

High Income Economy

SOUTHEAST ASIA’GROWTH

1997-1998: Financial crisis

2000

After great recession in 2009 In 2010:GDP growing over 8%

Southeast Asia

Strategic Location, Abundant Resources

MALACCA STRAITS : World 2nd busiest shipping channel : World 2nd most popular oil tanker route

Impact of ASEAN Natural Resources

Provided “tiger cubs "the start for industrialization in 1970-1980

“Tiger cubs” adopt the export-oriented policies and others strategy that made the high level of investment and a continuing rapid growth

Provided “Vietnam” industrialization in 1990

put the region' countries into some of the world’s highest trade-to-GDP rationsMake Singapore the world’s

largest transshipments port

Provide “Tiger cubs” a large tourism industries

Singapore: pushing to become a global biomedical sciences center

Kuala Lumpur : pushing to be a global canter of Islamic finance

Malacca Straits World Shipping 36%Trade $390 b

Natural resources made service trends

ASEAN’s Role• Lowered trade tariff• Established a Free Trade Area among members• Played a pivotal stabilizing role in both the region

and the world• Mediated conflicts

example : Thai-Cambodia border conflict

• Resolve the dispute over the resource-rich Spratly Islands

• China’s emergence in the next two decades as the world largest economy

• China’s regional dominance possible security risk• A highly educated and innovative workforce,

a culture of excellence, entrepreneurial skills,access to finance and infrastructure, a competitive business environment

Challenges

• Economies will face a bumpy ride as growth slows because..- international economic environment becomes more sluggish- inflationary pressures- commodity prices become more volatile

• Political tensions >> new phrase of uncertainty• Fueled growth will re-emerge• The sub-region is proving to be an indispensable

source

Looking Ahead

“The sub-region’s middle-income economies must move up the value chain

to further their economic prosperity…If they accomplish this SE Asia could well become home to full-fledge tigers and

dragons..”