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South Gloucestershire Renewable Energy Resource Assessment Summary and UpdateProduced by South Gloucestershire Council and endorsed by Regen SW

November 2012

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South Gloucestershire Renewable Energy Resource Assessment Summary and Update October 2012 Produced by South Gloucestershire Council and endorsed by Regen SW November 2012 Introduction The potential for local renewable energy generation in South Gloucestershire has been assessed in order to help understand how much of each type of renewable energy technology could theoretically be generated, and the size of the combined potential. This work builds on an assessment carried out in 2010 by AECOM using updated information provided by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and Regen SW (the regional independent renewable energy advice organisation). Further details of assumptions and sources of information used for calculating the theoretical deployment potential for the different renewable energy technologies have been set out in the technical appendix to this document. An indicative mix of technologies showing how 7.5% of South Gloucestershire’s projected 2020 energy demand could be met from renewable sources by 2020 (the ‘2020 scenario’) has also been developed in consultation with South Gloucestershire elected members. For each technology, this report sets out:

• The theoretical maximum potential deployment (where available) • The scale of deployment included in the 2020 scenario

The technologies are presented in descending order of energy output in the 2020 scenario. In practise, the type, size and location of technologies installed on the ground is reliant on the individual planning applications and projects that are brought forward by developers, individuals and communities, and will be influenced by advances in technology. It is therefore not possible to predict the precise combination of technologies that will be installed in South Gloucestershire by 2020. ‘Counting’ Renewable Energy in South Gloucestershire Most technologies use South Gloucestershire resources (such as sun and wind) to generate energy in South Gloucestershire – for example solar panels, heat pumps, and wind turbines. The energy is generated where the renewable energy resource or ‘fuel’ is. Thus the installed capacity located in South Gloucestershire is representative of the contribution towards South Gloucestershire’s energy demand. Other renewable energy fuels can be transported across borders to generate energy. For example, biomass boilers in South Gloucestershire currently use wood fuel imported from outside the area. Conversely, renewable energy is generated outside of South Gloucestershire using

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South Gloucestershire’s waste. There is thus a mismatch between installed capacity in South Gloucestershire and generation of energy using South Gloucestershire’s resources. This creates an issue in ‘counting’ the renewable energy contribution towards demand. There are two options – to count energy generated from South Gloucestershire’s renewable energy resources no matter where the energy gets generated, or to count energy generated in South Gloucestershire no matter where the resources or fuel come from. Counting both would lead to double counting. DECC’s resource assessment methodology is based on the first of these options – and this is the approach which has been used for the purposes of assessing the hypothetical maximum potential for each technology. Assessing indigenous renewable energy resources is a good theoretical basis for understanding renewable energy potential but presents problems in terms of monitoring. Regional and national monitoring is derived from installed capacity of renewable energy infrastructure (ie counting energy generated in South Gloucestershire no matter where the resources or fuel come from). The 2020 scenario has therefore been based on installed capacity of renewable energy infrastructure in South Gloucestershire.

Installed Capacity and Energy In understanding the potential for different renewable energy technologies, it is important to appreciate the difference between the installed capacity (or the ‘power’) of renewable energy installations, and the amount of energy that they generate. The installed capacity is the maximum power that can be produced by a generator at any one time. It is measured in kilowatts (kW) or megawatts (MW). 1MW = 1,000kW. Energy is the quantity of power produced over a length of time – typically an hour – measured in kilowatt hours (kWh), megawatt hours (MWh) or gigawatt hours (GWh). 1MWh = 1,000 kWh, and 1GWh = 1,000 MWh. If a 1kW generator was generating energy at its maximum power for 1 hour, it would generate 1kWh of energy. However, most renewable energy technologies do not generate energy at their maximum capacity all the time, because they are reliant on (for example) the sun shining, or the wind blowing. Over 365 days, a 1kW solar panel typically generates an average of 0.1kWh of energy per hour. This means it has a ‘capacity factor’ of 0.1. Meanwhile a single 2MW wind turbine typically generates an average of 0.54MW of energy per hour. This means it has a ‘capacity factor’ of 0.27. All capacity factors and energy outputs quoted are averages based on current technology, and therefore will change over time.

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Energy from Waste (EfW)

Energy from Waste Plant, Slough

Existing – Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) from SG is sent to the New Earth Solutions Mechanical and Biological Treatment (MBT) facility at Avonmouth. As an interim measure, Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) from the MBT facility is being exported to Rotterdam for use as a district heating system fuel (in CHP mode) – generating about 9,065MWh renewable energy per year. Potential – It is estimated that 445,300 tonnes of solid waste (municipal and commercial) will be generated in SG in 2020, of which it is assumed 30% will be available for energy recovery by 2020 (based on the energy hierarchy, to avoid conflict with recycling). Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation – Assumes:

• 30% of SG’s solid waste is available for energy recovery • 35% of solid waste is biodegradable. (Only energy from the

biodegradable fraction can be counted as renewable) • Energy is extracted from the waste in CHP mode, ie both heat

and electricity are generated, at a ratio of 2 (heat) to 1 (electricity)

• Total installed capacity 4.7MW electric and 9.4MW heat • Estimated energy generation 111,164MWh per annum

(37,055MWh electricity and 74,110MWh heat) This calculation has been based on the expected quantity of waste resource (fuel) indigenous to SG, rather than the installed capacity of EfW plant located in the area. For the purposes of the 2020 scenario, potential installed capacity of EfW plant located in SG has been used. This means that energy generated from MSW from SG is not counted (as it is contracted until 2020 to be sent to Avonmouth, where New Earth Solutions is constructing its own energy recovery plant), but energy generated from SITA’s planned 32MWe EfW plant at Severnside is counted.

2020 Scenario SITA’s planned 32MWe EfW plant at Severnside will have the capacity to process up to 400,000 tonnes of waste per annum – most of which is expected to be commercial waste. It is not clear what proportion of the waste stream will be from SG. It is assumed that 35% of the solid waste is biodegradable. (Only energy from the biodegradable fraction can be counted as renewable). No heat offtake from the Severnside EfW plants is confirmed at present, but SITA is investigating local heat demand and potential markets. For the purposes of the 2020 scenario, it has been assumed that energy is generated in CHP mode, but only a quarter of the theoretical modelled heat offtake is achieved, giving:

• Installed capacity of 11.2MW (electric) and 5.6MW (heat) • Estimated renewable energy generation 132,458MWh per

annum

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Onshore Wind – Large Turbines (100-150m to blade tip)

Wind turbines at Avonmouth. Credit: Geograph

Existing – There are no large turbines currently installed in South Gloucestershire (SG), but Ecotricity has planning permission to construct 3 large turbines at Earthcott Green. Potential – AECOM mapped ‘areas of least constraint’ for large wind turbines (2MW - 80m hub height, 80m blade diameter, 120m tip height) by excluding:

• Areas with annual average wind speed of less than 6.0m/s at 45m above ground level (from the national wind speed database)

• Areas within 500m of a residential dwelling • Roads, with a buffer of 132m (topple distance plus 10%) • National grid overhead power lines with buffer of 240m (3 x rotor

diameter) • Sites of historic interest • Woodland • Internationally / Nationally designated landscape and biodiversity

areas (AONB, SSSIs, SPA, Ramsar) This left an ‘area of least constraint’ of 8.46km2, comprising 59 sites or clusters of sites. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation – Assumes:

• Large turbines developed on all of the ‘areas of least constraint’ - 5 turbines per km2, giving theoretical capacity for 42 turbines

• One 2MW turbine generates about 4,730.4MWh electricity per year. This takes into account intermittency and variation in the rate of energy generation as a result of variation in wind speed

• Total installed capacity for 42 turbines is 84MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 198,677MWh per annum

2020 Scenario The maximum hypothetical capacity takes no account of cumulative effects, or other planning constraints (eg landscape, biodiversity, historic environment, and Green Belt), land ownership issues etc. Realistically, the potential will be considerably lower. The number of large onshore wind turbines in the 2020 scenario has therefore been reduced to 15, giving:

• Installed capacity of 30MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 70,957MWh per annum

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Biomass – Clean Wood

Biomass boiler

Existing – There are 14 known biomass boilers in SG with a combined installed capacity of 1.62MW, but no known use of forestry residues or clean wood waste from SG in biomass boilers. Potential – Total availability of clean wood suitable for processing into wood chip or pellets for use in biomass boilers has been estimated taking into account:

• The area of woodland in SG and the quantity of forestry residues that could be extracted (4,716 oven dry tonnes)

• Clean wood waste from arboriculture and construction in SG (5,710 oven dry tonnes)

This is enough wood to fuel the equivalent of about 1,340 20kW biomass boilers (as might be used in a domestic setting, a farm or a small to medium sized non residential building). Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation – Assumes:

• All woodland in SG is used to extract forestry residues and is made available along with all clean waste wood in SG for use in clean wood boilers to generate heat

• Total installed capacity 26.8MW (heat) • Estimated energy generation 46,970MWh per annum

This calculation has been based on the quantity of biomass fuel (clean wood) indigenous to SG, rather than the installed capacity of biomass boilers located in SG. In practice, many woodlands are currently undermanaged (despite a competitive market for forestry residues), and biomass fuel is transported across administrative boundaries to generate energy. For example, the biomass boilers in South Gloucestershire schools are currently fuelled from imported biomass fuel. For the purposes of the 2020 scenario, the potential installed capacity of biomass boilers located in the area has been used instead.

2020 Scenario

AECOM modelled uptake of biomass boilers in SG by 2020 (assuming wood fuel could be imported to meet the demand) based on economics (taking into account the initial capital cost and Government payments under the RHPP/RHI), as well as factors such as knowledge and inconvenience. Based on AECOM’s boiler uptake model, 62,257MWh heat per year could be generated in SG from clean wood. This could fuel the equivalent of about 1,777 20kW biomass boilers. For the purposes of the 2020 scenario, it has been assumed that this level of deployment is achieved, giving:

• Installed capacity of 35.5MW (heat) • Estimated energy generation of 62,257MWh per annum

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Ground-Mounted Solar PV

Ground Mounted Solar PV

Existing – A number of ground-mounted solar PV planning applications have been granted consent in SG – with an estimated combined capacity of 175kW. (Information on which of these consents has been developed to-date is not available). Potential – With the cost of solar PV panels decreasing rapidly, ‘solar parks’ (arrays of ground mounted panels) have started to become more viable. It is difficult to define a ‘theoretical maximum’ of ground mounted solar PV that could be accommodated in SG, since development will be influenced largely by economics, competition from other land uses, and planning constraints. Sites potentially suitable for ground mounted solar PV in SG have not been mapped, thus there is no resource assessment-derived evidence base available to gauge the hypothetical maximum resource. It is also difficult to predict the size of ground mounted solar applications likely to come forward. Ground mounted solar PV schemes range from domestic scale installations of about 2kW to farm scale installations of about 250kW (taking up about ¾ of a hectare) to large 5MW arrays (taking up about 15 hectares) and beyond. Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation by 2020 – Assumes:

• The equivalent of 10 x 5MW solar parks developed, around 15 hectares each • Total installed capacity 50MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 61,320MWh per annum

2020 Scenario Given existing interest from developers in two large sites for ground mounted solar arrays in SG and a number of much smaller scale arrays already granted planning consent, 50MW of ground mounted solar PV has been retained in the 2020 scenario, giving:

• Installed capacity 50MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation

61,320MWh per annum

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Anaerobic Digestion (AD)

AD Plant Cannington. Credit: Martin Haswell

Existing – From April 2012, municipal food waste from SG (approx 5,500 tonnes / year) has been sent for AD at a Combined Heat and Power plant in Oxfordshire. This is generating about 1,474MWh of energy per year (670MWh electricity and 804MWh heat). Potential – The availability of waste potentially suitable for AD (food waste – both municipal and commercial and agricultural slurries) has been estimated for each upper tier authority area in the SW, and based on this – the maximum possible energy output. For SG this is estimated to be 102,195 tonnes. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation – Assumes:

• All agricultural and food waste generated in South Gloucestershire is used for AD

• Energy is generated in ‘Combined Heat and Power’ (CHP) mode – ie both heat and electricity are generated, at a ratio of 1.2 (heat) to 1 (electricity)

• Total installed capacity 1.6MW electric and 1.92MW heat

• Estimated energy generation 27,752MWh per annum (12,614MWh electricity and 15,137MWh heat)

This calculation has been based on the expected quantity of agricultural and food waste suitable for AD (‘fuel’) indigenous to South Gloucestershire, rather than the installed capacity of AD plant located in the area. For the purposes of the 2020 scenario, potential installed capacity of AD plant located in the area has been used.

2020 Scenario New Earth Solutions has planning consent to develop a 3MWe AD facility in the Hallen area with heat recovery for use within the facility. The consented facility has the capacity to process up to 50,000 tonnes per annum of food waste. Smaller farm scale AD installations could also be developed in SG if indigenous (or imported) agricultural waste could be made available to supply them. Two 0.25MW AD plants have been included in the 2020 scenario, in addition to the large Hallen plant, giving:

• Installed capacity 3.5MW electric and estimated 1.6MW heat • Estimated energy generation 36,646MWh per annum

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Roof Mounted Solar PV

Roof mounted Solar PV

Existing – At the end of March 2012, there were 2,071known solar PV installations in SG, with a combined installed capacity of 6.4MW. The large majority of existing installations are roof mounted. Potential - In theory, all suitable roof space in South Gloucestershire could be fitted with solar PV panels. (Suitability of roof space is influenced by a range of criteria such as orientation, pitch, roof strength, and location). However, deployment is largely driven by economics, as well as factors such as knowledge and inconvenience. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation by 2020 – Assumes (based on Department of Energy and Climate Change assumptions):

• Solar PV installed on one in eight existing domestic properties (2 kW system), one in four new build domestic properties (2 kW system), 40% of existing commercial properties (5kW system), and 80% of industrial buildings (10kW system).

• This is the equivalent of 25,642 domestic scale (2kW) systems • Total installed capacity 51.28MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 44,924MWh per annum

This level of deployment represents an eight-fold increase on the existing installed capacity of roof mounted solar PV in SG.

2020 Scenario Installing the equivalent of over 25 thousand domestic scale solar PV panels in SG by 2020 is ambitious, but has been retained in the 2020 scenario, giving:

• Installed capacity 51.28MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 44,924MWh per

annum

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Solar Thermal

Solar Thermal

Existing – At the end of March 2012, there were 86 known solar thermal installations in SG, with a combined installed capacity of 0.277MW. Potential – In theory, all suitable roof space in South Gloucestershire could be fitted with solar thermal panels. (Suitability of roof space is influenced by a range of criteria such as orientation, pitch, roof strength, and location). However, deployment is largely driven by economics, as well as factors such as knowledge and inconvenience. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation by 2020 – Assumes (based on Department of Energy and Climate Change assumptions):

• Solar thermal installed on one in eight existing domestic properties (2 kW system), one in four new build domestic properties (2 kW system) and 80% of industrial buildings (10kW system).

• This is the equivalent of 22,242 domestic scale (2kW) systems

• Total installed capacity 44.5MW (heat) • Estimated energy generation 38,967MWh per annum

This level of deployment represents a 160-fold increase on the existing installed capacity of roof mounted solar thermal panels in SG. The domestic Renewable Heat Incentive should drive an increase in the rate of deployment.

2020 Scenario Installing the equivalent of over 22 thousand domestic scale solar thermal panels in SG by 2020 is ambitious, but has been retained in the 2020 scenario, giving:

• Installed capacity 44.5MW (heat) • Estimated energy generation 38,967MWh per annum

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Heat Pumps

Ground Source Heat Pump. Credit: Kensa

Existing – At the end of March 2012, there were 50 known heat pumps in SG, with a combined installed capacity of 0.643MW. Of these 37 are air source (484 kW), and 13 ground (or water) source (159 kW). Potential – Heat pumps source their energy through heat exchange either with the ground, with water, or with the air. Ground source heat pumps use pipes which are buried underground (in the garden for domestic installations) to extract heat from the ground, whilst air source heat pumps absorb heat from the outside air. This heat is typically used to heat radiators, underfloor or air heating systems or hot water in the property. The theoretical maximum deployment of heat pumps is very extensive, but the level of deployment in practice will be largely driven by economics, as well factors such as knowledge and inconvenience. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation by 2020 – Assumes (based on Department of Energy and Climate Change assumptions, refined by RegenSW):

• Heat pumps installed in 50% of off-gas properties (5kW system), 50% of all new build properties (5kW system) and 10% of commercial premises (100kW system)

• This is the equivalent of 16,636 domestic scale (5kW) systems

• Total installed capacity 83.2MW (heat) • Estimated energy generation 72,866MWh per annum • This level of deployment would require approx 28,025MWh of

electricity per annum to power the heat pumps. 28,025MWh has therefore been subtracted from the heat pumps energy generation potential, which reduces the net energy output to 44,841MWh

2020 Scenario Installing the equivalent of over 16 thousand domestic scale heat pumps in SG by 2020 is highly ambitious. For the purposes of the 2020 scenario, the number of heat pumps has been reduced to half of the hypothetical maximum, giving:

• Installed capacity of 41.6MW (heat) • Estimated energy generation of 36,433MWh per annum • This level of deployment would require approx 14,013MWh of

electricity per annum to power the heat pumps. 14,013MWh has therefore been subtracted from the heat pumps energy generation potential, which reduces the net energy output to 22,421MWh

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Onshore Wind – Medium Turbines (35-100m to blade tip)

900kW wind turbine, Orkney Islands. Credit: NCE

2020 Scenario Ten 900kW and five 500kW wind turbines have been retained in the 2020 scenario, giving:

• Installed capacity 11.5MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 29,623MWh per

annum

Existing – There are no medium turbines currently installed in South Gloucestershire, but Warburtons has planning permission to construct one medium turbine at the Warburtons Bakery and Distribution Centre, Severn Beach. Potential – Areas of potential for medium size wind turbines in South Gloucestershire have not been mapped in the same way as for large wind turbines, thus there is no resource assessment-derived evidence base available to gauge the hypothetical maximum resource for medium turbines. Some of the same constraints are applicable, so sites suitable for large wind will often coincide with sites suitable for medium wind. However there will also be sites potentially suitable for medium turbines where large turbines could not be developed (for example because their visual, ecological or noise impacts of medium turbines are more limited). Medium turbines could be developed in clusters (as wind farms) or as single turbines which could, for example, supply energy to business premises. Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation by 2020 – Assumes:

• Ten medium (900kW) turbines are developed • Five medium (500kW) turbines are developed • One 900kW turbine generates about 2,137.3MWh electricity per year

and one 500kW turbine generates about 1,650MWh electricity per year. This takes into account intermittency and variation in the rate of energy generation as a result of variation in wind speed

• Total installed capacity 11.5MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 29,623MWh per annum

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Landfill Gas

Landfill Gas

Existing – Landfill gas from three landfill sites in South Gloucestershire (Harnhill, Berwick Farm and Shortwood) is currently being used to generate electricity. Potential – There is no additional potential for landfill gas in SG, and Landfill gas production from the existing sites will decline over time. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation by 2020 – Assumes energy production from existing landfill gas production will decrease by 7.5% per annum to 2020, resulting in:

• Capacity of 1.05MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 5,537MWh per annum

Issues / Areas of Influence There is no scope to influence the level of energy production from landfill gas

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Onshore Wind – Small Turbines (less than 35m to blade tip)

50kW wind turbine. Credit: Endurancewindpower.com

Existing – At the end of March 2012, there were two small turbines installed at Almondsbury Sports and Social Club (each 15kW), one at Marshfield School (15kW), and two domestic turbines (15kW and 6kW). Potential – areas of potential for small wind turbines in South Gloucestershire have not been mapped in the same way as for large wind turbines, thus there is no resource assessment-derived evidence base available to gauge the hypothetical maximum resource for small turbines. It is difficult to map potential for small turbines on an area-wise basis because broad-brush assumptions about constraints (such as proximity to dwellings) are not so relevant. Deployment will be influenced by a combination of economics and individual site by site considerations and planning decisions. Small turbines are often developed to supply on-site electricity needs eg for farms or other businesses, rather than to supply electricity to the national grid. For the purposes of the hypothetical maximum scenario, it has been assumed that 20 small wind turbines can be accommodated. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation – Assumes:

• Twenty small (50kW) turbines are developed, each 34m to tip height. (This is at the large end of the ‘small’ turbine range)

• One 50kW turbine generates about 150MWh electricity per year. This takes into account intermittency and variation in the rate of energy generation as a result of variation in wind speed

• Total installed capacity 1MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 3,000MWh per annum

2020 Scenario Ten 50kW wind turbines have been included in the 2020 scenario, giving:

• Installed capacity 0.5MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 1,500MWh

per annum

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Biomass – Energy Crops (excluding forestry residues)

Miscanthus

Existing – There are no known energy crop boilers in SG, and no known energy being generated elsewhere from crops grown in SG (although anecdotal evidence suggests miscanthus is being grown in the Iron Acton area). Potential - AECOM estimated the amount of energy crops (such as miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice) that could be grown on agricultural land in SG by 2020. Due to competition from other land uses and other constraints, it was assumed that by 2020, energy crops could be grown on 10% of agricultural land grades 3 and 4, which is just under 4,000ha. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation – Assumes:

• 4,000ha land in SG being used to grow energy crops • Energy is extracted from the crops in Combined Heat and

Power mode, ie both heat and electricity are generated, at a ratio of 2 (heat) to 1 (electricity)

• Total installed capacity 6MW electric and 12MW heat • Estimated energy generation 141,912MWh per annum

(47,304MWh electricity 94,608MWh heat) However, the UK market for energy crops is not yet well developed. Energy crops cannot be used in most clean wood boilers and there are currently no dedicated energy crop boilers in the area which could provide a market for the crops. The calculation above has been based on the quantity of energy crops which could theoretically be grown in SG, rather than the installed capacity of energy crop boilers located in the area. For the purposes of the 2020 scenario, installed capacity of energy crop boilers located in the area has been used instead.

2020 Scenario It is considered unlikely that any large scale energy crop boilers will be developed in SG by 2020. Energy crops can also be used as a source of fuel for heat and/or electricity on individual farms, and it is possible that a number of farm scale energy crop boilers will be developed in SG by 2020. For the purposes of the 2020 scenario, it has been assumed that ten 15kW boilers are developed, and energy is extracted from the crops in heat-only mode, giving:

• Installed capacity of 0.15MW (heat) • Estimated energy generation 1,183MWh per annum

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Hydropower

Hydropower generator

Existing – There is one domestic hydropower system currently installed in SG with an installed capacity of 1.5kW. Potential – The Environment Agency has identified sites across England and Wales with sufficient drop to provide a hydropower opportunity – mostly weirs. 30 potential sites for micro hydropower schemes (less than 10kW each) with a low sensitivity to migratory fish were identified in SG. A number of sites with potential for a larger hydropower system size were also identified, but have been classified as high or in one case medium sensitivity. They are therefore less likely to be developable because of the presence of migratory fish. Nonetheless the potential at these sites may be worth exploring. Max Hypothetical Capacity and Energy Generation – Assumes:

• All 30 low sensitivity sites developed, average system size of 5kW • One 35kW system is developed • Total installed capacity 0.185MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 810.3MWh per annum • This is about 0.02% of projected 2020 electricity and heat demand.

Practical constraints such as access to the local electricity distribution network and environmental impacts have not yet been assessed for the identified sites. Realistically, the potential is therefore likely to be considerably lower.

2020 Scenario One 35kW system and five 5kW systems have been included in the 2020 scenario, giving:

• Installed capacity 0.06MW (electric) • Estimated energy generation 263MWh per annum

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Combined Potential

Theoretical Maximum The resource assessment indicates that the theoretical maximum renewable energy generation based on South Gloucestershire’s indigenous renewable energy resources could deliver approximately 11.2% of South Gloucestershire’s projected energy demand1. The graph below shows the theoretical maximum renewable energy generation broken down by each of the technologies described above, as well as the combined total.

198.7141.9 111.2

61.3 47.0 44.9 44.8 39.0 27.8 21.4 8.3 5.5 3.0 0.8

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The combined total of 755.5GWh is 11.2% of South Gloucestershire’s projected 2020 energy demand (including transport energy). The combined total is made up of 412.8GWh electricity and 342.7GWh heat. This is 30.6% of South Gloucestershire’s projected electricity demand and 14.6% of projected heat demand.

1 There is no resource assessment-derived evidence base available to gauge the hypothetical maximum resource for ground-mounted solar PV, nor for medium and small wind turbines. Consequently a scenario based approach has been taken to estimate potential deployment of these technologies for inclusion in the ‘theoretical maximum’ calculation.

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2020 Scenario The graph below illustrates the 2020 scenario (showing how 7.5% of South Gloucestershire’s projected 2020 energy demand could be met from renewable sources by 2020, based on installed capacity of renewable energy infrastructure in South Gloucestershire), broken down by each of the technologies described above.

132.571.0 62.3 61.3 44.9 39.0 36.6 22.4 21.4 8.3 5.5 1.5 1.2 0.3

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The combined total of 508GWh is 7.5% of South Gloucestershire’s projected 2020 energy demand (including transport energy). The combined total is made up of 312.4GWh electricity and 195.6GWh heat. This is 23.2% of South Gloucestershire’s projected electricity demand and 8.3% of projected heat demand. In practise, the type, size and location of technologies installed on the ground is reliant on the individual planning applications and projects that are brought forward by developers, individuals and communities, and will be influenced by advances in technology, so it is not possible to predict the precise combination of technologies that will be installed in South Gloucestershire by 2020.