South Gloucestershire Core Strategy Local Model Validation ... · 9. Summary of Model Development...

South Gloucestershire Core Strategy Local Model Validation Report Client: South Gloucestershire Council

May 2012

Notice

This document was produced by Atkins Limited for South Gloucestershire Council for the specific purpose of the South Gloucestershire Core Strategy Highway Model Development.

This document may not be used by any person other than South Gloucestershire Council without South Gloucestershire Council‟s express permission. In any event, Atkins accepts no liability for any costs, liabilities or losses arising as a result of the use of or reliance upon the contents of this report by any person other than South Gloucestershire Council.

Document History

Job number: 5105925 Document ref: Local Model Validation Report

Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date

Rev 1.0 Initial Draft ST JFC 06/01/2012

Rev 2.0 Revised Draft for Issue to SGC

ST JFC AHM AHM 09/02/2012

Rev 3.0 Final Draft ST JFC AHM AHM 15/02/2012

Rev 4.0 Final for Issue ST JFC AHM AHM 14/05/2012

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Client Client: South Gloucestershire Council

Project South Gloucestershire Core Strategy

Document title Local Model Validation Report

Job No. 5105925

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Document reference

Local Model Validation Report

South Gloucestershire Core Strategy Local Model Validation Report

Atkins South Gloucestershire Core Strategy - Local Model Validation Report | May 2012 3

Table of contents

Chapter Pages

1. Introduction 7 Background 7 This Report 7

2. Modelling Tools and Key Design Considerations 8 Introduction 8 Existing Transport Models of the North Fringe 8 Key Design Considerations for the CSM 9

3. Model Guidelines 10 Validation Criteria and Acceptability Guidelines 10 GEH Statistic 10 Journey Time Validation 10 Convergence Criteria 11

4. Key Features of the Model 12 Fully Modelled Area and External Area 12 Zoning System 13 Network Structure 14 Modelled Time Periods 15 Assignment Methodology 15

5. Data Sources 17 Introduction 17 Network Data 17 Roadside Interview Data 17 Traffic Count Data 18 Journey Time Data 19

6. Network Development 22 Introduction 22 Network Audit 22 Improvements to Zone and Network Representation 22

7. Trip Matrix Development 23 Introduction 23 Light Vehicles 23 Heavy Vehicles 26

8. Model Calibration and Validation 27 Introduction 27 Network Calibration 27 Matrix Calibration 27 Validation 34 Matrix Validation 41

9. Summary of Model Development 49 Summary of Standards Achieved 49 Assessment of Fitness for Purpose 49

Appendix A. Screenline Flow Calibration 50 A.1. Screenline Flow Calibration 50

Appendix B. Screenline Individual Flow Calibration 52 B.1. Screenline Individual Flow Calibration 52



Appendix C. Individual Flow Calibration 60

Appendix D. Individual Flow Validation 79

Appendix E. Journey Time Validation 86

Appendix F. Sector Analysis 105 F.1. AM Peak Prior Matrix Estimation 107 F.2. AM Peak Post Matrix Estimation 108 F.3. AM Peak Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation 109 F.4. AM Peak GEH Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation 110 F.5. Inter-Peak Prior Matrix Estimation 111 F.6. Inter-Peak Post Matrix Estimation 112 F.7. Inter-Peak Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation 113 F.8. Inter-Peak GEH Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation 114 F.9. PM Peak Prior Matrix Estimation 115 F.10. PM Peak Post Matrix Estimation 116 F.11. PM Peak Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation 117 F.12. PM Peak GEH Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation 118

Tables Table 3.1 – DMRB Acceptability Guidelines 10

Table 4.1 – Vehicle to PCU Factors 15 Table 4.2 – Generalised Cost Parameter Values 16

Table 4.3 – PASSQ Parameters 16

Table 5.1 – Roadside Interview Sites 17

Table 5.2 – Summary of Model Screenlines 19 Table 8.1 – Matrix Estimation Totals: AM Peak 28

Table 8.2 – Matrix Estimation Totals: Inter Peak 29

Table 8.3 – Matrix Estimation Totals: PM Peak 29

Table 8.4 – Screenline Calibration Results 30

Table 8.5 – Summary of Individual Flow Calibration 31

Table 8.6 – Summary of Individual Flow Validation 34

Table 8.7 – Summary of Pre and Post ME2 Changes in Trip End Totals 43 Table 8.8 – Journey Time Summary: AM Peak 46

Table 8.9 – Journey Time Summary: Inter Peak 46

Table 8.10 – Journey Time Summary: PM Peak 46

Table 8.11 – Summary of Model Convergence 48

Figures Figure 4.1 – SATURN Model Network 12 Figure 4.2 – Inner Core and Outer Core Areas 13

Figure 4.3 – Level of Model Detail 14

Figure 5.1 – Location of 2011 Roadside Interview Sites 18

Figure 5.2 – Location of Count Screenlines 20

Figure 5.3 – Location of Journey Time Routes 21

Figure 7.1 – Matrix Development Process 23

Figure 8.1 – Location of Calibration Counts 31

Figure 8.2 – R-squared Analysis: AM Peak (calibration) 33

Figure 8.3 – R-squared Analysis: Inter Peak (calibration) 33

Figure 8.4 – R-squared Analysis: PM Peak (calibration) 34



Figure 8.5 – Location of Validation Counts 35

Figure 8.6 – Validation on Key Links – Comparison of Counts and Modelled flows - AM Peak 36

Figure 8.7 – Validation on Key Links – Comparison of Counts and Modelled flows - Inter Peak 37

Figure 8.8 – Validation on Key Links – Comparison of Counts and Modelled flows - PM Peak 38 Figure 8.9 – R-squared Analysis: AM Peak (validation) 39

Figure 8.10 – R-squared Analysis: Inter Peak (validation) 40

Figure 8.11 – R-squared Analysis: PM Peak (validation) 40

Figure 8.12 – Prior and Post-ME2 Trip Length Distribution: AM Peak 41 Figure 8.13 – Prior and Post-ME2 Trip Length Distribution: Inter Peak 42

Figure 8.14 – Prior and Post-ME2 Trip Length Distribution: PM Peak 42

Figure 8.15 – R-squared Analysis of Pre and Post MES Matrix Cells: AM Peak 44

Figure 8.16 – R-squared Analysis of Pre and Post MES Matrix Cells: Inter Peak 44 Figure 8.17 – R-squared Analysis of Pre and Post MES Matrix Cells: PM Peak 45


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1. Introduction

Background 1.1. This technical report describes the development of a highway assignment model of the North

Fringe1 of the Bristol Urban Area. It has been prepared by Atkins on behalf of South

Gloucestershire Council (SGC).

1.2. This model has been employed to provide evidence to support the transport case for the North Fringe element of the detailed spatial strategy for future development in South Gloucestershire to 2026 set out in SGC‟s Core Strategy

2. The model is referred to as the Core Strategy Model

(CSM).

1.3. The CSM has been developed following the Department for Transport‟s transport modelling guidance

3 and is constructed using SATURN highway assignment modelling software. The CSM

is linked to two other models developed on behalf of the West of England local authorities4: the

G-BATS3 Public Transport Assignment Model (PTAM) and the G-BATS3 Demand Model. These models have also been developed following the Department‟s modelling guidance. Together, these models enable forecasts to be made of transport demand and the corresponding highway and public transport flows in the North Fringe.

This Report 1.4. This report describes how the CSM has been constructed from available data and existing

transport models and presents evidence to show that it is a suitable representation of current (2011) base year travel patterns and traffic conditions in the North Fringe area and is thereby fit for purpose to forecast travel demand and flows.

1.5. This report consists of eight sections following this introductory section:

Section two describes Modelling Tools and Key Design Considerations;

Section three presents Model Standards;

Section four summarises Key Features of the Model;

Section five summarises the Data Sources;

Section six describes the Network Development;

Section seven sets out the Trip Matrix Development;

Section eight describes the Model Calibration and Validation; and

A summary of the model development is presented in Section nine.

1 The North Fringe of the Bristol Urban Area is within South Gloucestershire and comprises the communities

of Filton, Patchway, Bradley Stoke, Stoke Gifford, Harry Stoke, Frenchay and the surrounding areas. 2 South Gloucestershire Core Strategy: December 2011. Core Strategy incorporating Post-Submission

Changes 3 Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), Department for Transport, www.dft.gov.uk/webtag

4 In addition to SGC these comprise Bristol City Council, Bath and North East Somerset Council and North

Somerset Council.

http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag



2. Modelling Tools and Key Design Considerations

Introduction 2.1. This chapter provides an overview of the existing models covering the North Fringe and the

requirements for their enhancement to support the assessment of the impacts of the spatial strategy for the North Fringe described in the Core Strategy.

Existing Transport Models of the North Fringe 2.2. The CSM was developed from the North Fringe Hengrove (NFH) model. The NFH model was

developed by Atkins on behalf of the West of England authorities to support the planning and design of the NFH Package major transport scheme. The NFH Model was, itself, derived from the G-BATS3 (Greater Bristol Area Transport Study 3) model, originally developed in 2006.

2.3. G-BATS3 is a „strategic‟ transport model covering the main built up area of Bristol (termed the Greater Bristol area), including the main urban area of South Gloucestershire. The model area extends to cover the Bristol urban area in detail and the surrounding area (roughly to the boundary of the former county of Avon) in lesser detail. Outside of this area a less detailed model and zone system was defined which covers the area immediately around the study area and also extends to cover the rest of the UK. The G-BATS3 model comprises three components:

- A Highway Assignment Model (G-BATS3 HAM) representing vehicle-based movements across the Greater Bristol area for a typical 2006 morning peak hour (08:00 – 09:00), an average inter-peak hour (10:00 – 16:00) and an evening peak hour (17:00 – 18:00);

- A Public Transport Assignment Model (G-BATS3 PTAM) representing bus and rail-based movements across the same area and time periods in 2006; and

- A five-stage multi-modal incremental Demand Model (G-BATS3 DM) that estimates frequency choice, main mode choice, time period choice, destination choice, and sub mode choice in response to changes in generalised costs across the 24-hour period (07:00 – 07:00).

2.4. The G-BATS3 model was enhanced to create the NFH model and used to support the Programme Entry Major Scheme Business Case for the NFH Package (submitted March 2010) and subsequently the Best and Final Bid (BAFB) submission to the Department for Transport in September 2011. The NFH Package business case was approved by the Department for Transport in December 2011.

2.5. The enhancements were required to provide greater certainty in the representation of travel demand and improve the validation of the highway and public transport models in the area of influence of the NFH Package major scheme. These can be summarised as follows:

The representation of highway demand was updated using new data collected by roadside

interview surveys in the North Fringe on roads serving movements that would be expected to

be influenced by the measures – such as the Stoke Gifford Transport Link (SGTL) – that

make up the NFH Package;

The highway model in the area of influence of the SGTL was validated to new 2009 count

data;

The representation of public transport demand was updated using new data collected by on-

board bus surveys in the area of influence of the NFH Package measures, supplemented by

bus ticket data, and the public transport assignment model validated to new 2009 count data;



The demand model was updated to a 2009 base year and the realism tests re-run based

upon guidance in WebTAG unit 3.10.4d; and

Changes to trip end modelling procedures were made to bring them into line with current

WebTAG guidance (WebTAG Unit 3.15.2).

2.6. The development of the NFH traffic model is described in the NFH Package Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) (September 2011)

5.

Key Design Considerations for the CSM 2.7. The Core Strategy proposes new development – both housing and employment – across the

North Fringe but with a focus on two new neighbourhoods: the Cribbs/Patchway New Neighbourhood (CPNN); and the East of Harry Stoke New Neighbourhood (EHSNN).

2.8. The existing NFH highway model provides an adequate representation of the EHSNN area, as this is within the immediate area of influence of the NFH Package; and as noted above model enhancements were made to incorporate new data into the NFH model to enable the model to be fit for purpose for the planning and design of the major scheme. While the NFH model covers the western part of the North Fringe, which includes the CPNN, the model‟s representation of demand and traffic flows was not considered as robust as that for the EHSNN area because it was based on less up to date information on patterns of movement and had not been validated to the same level of local detail. An important design consideration for the CSM model was therefore to enhance the model in this area by incorporating new demand data and improving the quality of local area model validation.

2.9. SGC‟s policies for mitigating the impact of the proposed developments are focused on multi-modal sustainable transport measures, including strategic transport schemes such as the NFH Package. For the CSM model to be able to assess the impact of different transport packages it is necessary to take into account different behavioural responses of users of the transport network, including changes in trip distribution, time of travel, mode choice and route choice. However, the NFH public transport model and NFH demand model do provide an adequate representation of public transport demand and behavioural responses for use alongside the CSM without further enhancement.

2.10. The Core Strategy also makes provision for changes to the retail offer at The Mall, Cribbs Causeway. The CSM also needs to be able to assess the impact of increased activity at The Mall on traffic flows on the local highway network and on the strategic motorway network.

5 North Fringe to Hengrove Package: Local Model Validation Report, Atkins, September 2011. Available at

http://www.travelplus.org.uk/media/222340/woe%20nfhp%20supp%20doc%20b.pdf

http://www.travelplus.org.uk/media/222340/woe%20nfhp%20supp%20doc%20b.pdf



3. Model Guidelines

Validation Criteria and Acceptability Guidelines 3.1. The CSM has been built following the Department for Transport‟s Transport Analysis Guidance

(TAG) aiming to achieve the validation acceptability guidelines in the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) to which TAG refers.

3.2. The validation criteria and acceptability guidelines as specified in DMRB are shown in Table 3.1 below. Note that the observed flow and screenline flow criteria are applied to „all vehicles‟ and „cars/LGVs‟.

Table 3.1 – DMRB Acceptability Guidelines

Criteria and Measure Acceptability Guideline

DMRB Flow Difference Criteria

1 Total screenline flows (normally > 5 links) to be within ± 5%

All (or nearly all) screenlines

2

Observed (individual) link flow < 700vph Modelled flow within ± 100vph

Observed (individual) link flow 700 to 2700vph

Modelled flow within ± 15%

> 85% of links

Observed (individual) link flow > 2700vph Modelled flow within ± 400vph

DMRB GEH Criteria

3 GEH statistic for screenline totals <4 All (or nearly all) screenlines

4 GEH statistic for individual link flows <5 > 85% of links

GEH Statistic 3.3. The GEH statistic included in Table 3.1 is used as an indicator of „goodness of fit‟, i.e. the extent

to which the modelled flows match the corresponding observed flows. This is recommended in the guidelines contained in the DMRB Volume 12 and is defined as:

Where:

M = modelled flow

C = observed flow

Journey Time Validation 3.4. The DMRB journey time validation criterion states that modelled journey times over the whole

survey route should be within +/- 15% of observed times (or +/- 1 minute if higher) on 85% of routes.

(M-C)2

0.5 x (M + C)GEH =

(M-C)2

0.5 x (M + C)GEH =



Convergence Criteria 3.5. The Traffic Appraisal in Urban Areas (DMRB Volume 12) advice recommends two criteria for

Wardrop User Equilibrium assignment to ensure a satisfactory model convergence:

Delta - should be less than 1%, or at least stable, with convergence fully documented and all other criteria met.

Delta is the measure of convergence of the final assignment to ensure that the alternative routes used in the assignment process do not differ significantly from the final minimum cost route. It is the difference between costs on the various multiple assigned routes and those along the final minimum cost routes, as a percentage of minimum cost routes. In SATURN, the %GAP statistic measures delta.

Flow change (P) - percentage of links having flow changes less than 5%. 95% of the links should satisfy this for four consecutive iterations.

P is the measure of convergence of assignment-simulation loops. It is the percentage of links where assigned flow change by less than 5% between successive assignment-simulation loops.

3.6. The terminating criteria for the assignment-simulation iterative procedure used in the model was set to flow changes of less than 5% on at least 99% of all model links and setting SATURN NISTOP=5. This ensured that the above criteria for P would be met by the model.



4. Key Features of the Model

Fully Modelled Area and External Area

Modelled Area 4.1. The CSM model area is shown in Figure 4.1. This is the area represented by the G-BATS3 and

NFH highway models from which the CSM is derived.

Figure 4.1 – SATURN Model Network

4.2. The model area extends to cover the Bristol urban area in detail and the surrounding area to a slightly reduced level of detail, roughly to the boundary of the former county of Avon. The main focus is the Bristol urban area, bounded to the west by the M5, to the north by the M4 (with an extension along the A432 to Yate), to the east by the A4174 Avon Ring Road (with an extension to include Keynsham and Cadbury Heath), and to the south by the edge of the Bristol City Boundary, running in an arc from the A4/A4174 junction to the A370 at Long Ashton. Within this area the model zoning system is equivalent to at least census ward level and the highway network represents all A and B roads.

4.3. Outside of this area a less detailed zone system was defined which covers the area immediately around the study area and also extends to cover the rest of the UK. Network modelling in this area is limited.

Core Strategy Model Area of Detailed Modelling 4.4. Within this overall modelled area the CSM has been developed to provide greater detail in the

North Fringe area. The CSM area focuses on four areas, shown in Figure 4.2, as follows:



NFH Inner Core: this area was the detailed focus of the NFH Highway Model enhancement. It covers Bradley Stoke, Harry Stoke, Patchway and Stoke Gifford and is bounded by the M5 Junction 15-16, M4 Junction 19-20, the A4174 Avon Ring Road/Filton Road, the railway line between Filton Abbey Wood and Patchway, and finally the A38 back to the M5;

CSM Inner Core Area: this area was the main focus of the enhancement of the NFH highway model to the CSM. Its boundaries are the A38 to the east, M5 to the north, A4018 to the West and the B4056 to the south. The area includes Cribbs Causeway, Patchway, Filton Airfield, Southmead and Hayes Way;

NFH Outer Core: the Outer Core is bounded by M5 Junction 15 to 17, M4 Junction 19-20, the A432 between Downend and Eastville, the Severn Beach Line to the north of Bristol City Centre and then the A38 Gloucester Road; and

Remaining Network: this is the model network outside of the Inner and Outer Cores. This area of the model is that developed for the G-BATS3 and NFH highway models and has not been the subject of further enhancement or detailed validation for the CSM.

Figure 4.2 – Inner Core and Outer Core Areas

Zoning System 4.5. The CSM zoning system comprises 600 zones to allow origins and destinations of trips

throughout Great Britain to be replicated within the model. A detailed zoning system was developed to represent the Bristol urban area and its immediate surroundings.

4.6. The CSM zoning system is identical to the NFH zoning system, which itself was based on G-BATS3, with the exception that seven additional zones have been added in the East of Harry Stoke and Cribbs Causeway areas by subdividing existing zones. The seven new zones have been taken from 16 „empty‟ zones set aside to represent future year developments. Hence, both the CSM and NFH Model retain a 600 zone system.



4.7. The zoning system also includes 10 Park and Ride zones (of which three are already in operation and the other seven are available for future use) as well as separate development zones for future use.

4.8. A compatible zoning system is adopted in all elements of the GBATS3 models.

Network Structure 4.9. The basis of the CSM network remains the NFH/G-BATS3 network. Further information on the

development of this network is provided in the G-BATS3 LMVR6. During the development of the

CSM network, the existing 2009 NFH network was reviewed and updated. Further detail on this is presented in Section 6 of this report.

General Network Geometry 4.10. Node definitions and link capacities were based on an assessment of visual background mapping

such as Google Maps and Virtual Maps, as well as detailed local knowledge of actual junction operation. Link distances were derived from GIS based analysis allowing accurate estimation of road lengths.

Capacity Restraint 4.11. Capacity restraint is modelled in the simulation area. The simulated area is shown in red in

Figure 4.3. As shown in the figure it includes the Inner and Outer Core areas. All modelled junctions in this area have been allocated a junction type, a capacity and circulatory capacity and traffic signal timings for roundabouts and signalised junctions respectively.

Figure 4.3 – Level of Model Detail

4.12. The NFH highway model included speed/flow curves on some links in the simulation area. These have been maintained in the CSM. Allocation of speed/flow curves was employed based on the road characteristics. These were defined using the using the standard Cost Benefit Analysis

6 G-BATS3 Local Model Validation Report, Atkins, February 2009.

External Area

Fully Modelled Area

© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. South Gloucestershire Council. 100023410.2011.



(COBA) classification, with all the roads classified into Rural, Small or Village Town, Suburban, and Urban roads.

Signal Timings 4.13. Traffic signal data was reviewed and updated using information provided by SGC in line with the

network enhancements described above.

Modelled Time Periods 4.14. The model is based on the trip making patterns present in an average October 2011 weekday

(Tuesday to Thursday).

4.15. The three time periods modelled are:

The AM Peak representing traffic flow between the hours of 08:00 hours and 09:00 hours in the morning;

The Inter Peak representing the average hourly traffic flow between the hours of 10:00 hours and 16:00 hours; and

The PM Peak representing traffic flow between the hours of 17:00 hours and 18:00 hours.

Modelled User Classes 4.16. The CSM matrices incorporate the same two user classes modelled in the NFH Model. User

Class One comprises of light vehicles (cars and light goods vehicles), while User Class Two covers heavy goods vehicles.

PCU Factors 4.17. PCU factors used in the CSM were used as shown in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 – Vehicle to PCU Factors

Type Car / LGV HGV (OGV 1/2) Bus

Equivalent PCUs 1.0 2.3 3.0

Assignment Methodology 4.18. The assignment of trips to the highway network was undertaken using a standard „Wardrop User

Equilibrium‟ approach, in which “traffic arranges itself on congested networks such that the cost of travel on all routes used between each OD pair is equal to the minimum cost of travel and all unused routes have equal or greater cost”.

4.19. The generalised cost functions described in WebTAG Unit 3.10.2 for trip routeing in the model were applied whilst the parameters were derived from TAG Unit 3.5.6 „Values of Time and Operating Costs‟. This relates travel costs to a combination of travel time and the (vehicle operating and maintenance) cost per kilometre. The value of time varies by purpose (either working or non-working time), vehicle type and occupancy levels. Similarly, operating and maintenance costs are journey purpose and vehicle dependent and vary by speed. The speed assumed in the derivation of the generalised cost parameters was the average network speed in the NFH Model. The generalised cost parameters used in the model calibration were updated to a 2011 base and are shown in Table 4.2.



Table 4.2 – Generalised Cost Parameter Values

Time Period Light Vehicle Heavy Goods Vehicles

Time Distance Time Distance

AM Peak (08:00-09:00) 1.00 0.52 1.00 0.97

Inter-Peak (10:00-16:00) 1.00 0.45 1.00 1.04

PM Peak (17:00-18:00) 1.00 0.38 1.00 0.82

Pre-peak Queuing 4.20. For SATURN to adequately represent network performance in congested urban conditions,

information on the amount of traffic queuing in the network at the start of the modelled hour is needed. The PASSQ option in SATURN enables this feature and requires information about queuing from the previous hour.

4.21. The PASSQ option is only used for the AM Peak and PM Peak models and is based on factoring the matrix for the relevant peak, to represent the previous model hour (07:00-08:00) and (16:00-17:00) respectively. The factors were derived are given in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3 – PASSQ Parameters

Time Period User Class 1 ‘Lights’ User Class 2 ‘Heavies’

AM Peak (08:00-09:00) 0.938 0.941

Inter-Peak (10:00-16:00) n/a n/a

PM Peak (17:00-18:00) 0.977 1.814



5. Data Sources

Introduction 5.1. The CSM was developed from the NFH highway model supplemented by a significant amount of

new traffic data. This data was primarily collected in 2011. Data from before 2011 was used only in cases where it was considered particularly beneficial to the model development process. In these cases the data was rebased to a common base of October 2011. Where data from before 2011 was used care was taken to account for changes in traffic levels and the effects of any transport or development schemes

Network Data 5.2. Network data was obtained from the following sources:

Site visits to collect network information such as road widths, junction layouts and driver behaviour at junctions;

Signal timings provided by South Gloucestershire Council;

Satellite imagery from number of sources; and

Google Street View information including speed limits, traffic signs.

Roadside Interview Data 5.3. Roadside Interview (RSI) data was obtained from six sites surveyed in 2011 specifically for CSM

development. Details and locations of these sites are presented in Table 5.1 and Figure 5.1.

Table 5.1 – Roadside Interview Sites

Site Location Direction Date Day

1 Aztec West Eastbound 18/10/2011 Tuesday

2 Bradley Stoke Way Westbound 04/10/2011 Tuesday

3 Hayes Way Westbound 18/10/2011 Tuesday

4 Highwood Lane Westbound 18/10/2011 Tuesday

5 Merlin Road Northbound 05/10/2011 Wednesday

6 Lysander Road Eastbound 05/10/2011 Wednesday

5.4. As part of the NFH Model development procedure, a synthetic matrix was developed based on the trip cost distribution from observed traffic movements from 26 RSI sites surveyed in either 2006 or 2009. These RSI sites were specifically commissioned as part of the NFH and G-BATS3 data collection exercise. As a consequence of the development of the CSM from these two models, this data is also included in the CSM.



Figure 5.1 – Location of 2011 Roadside Interview Sites

Traffic Count Data

Types of Data 5.5. Traffic count data was available from a range of sources including:

Manual classified counts (MCCs);

Temporary automatic traffic counts (ATCs) on non-trunk/motorway roads;

Permanent ATCs on non-trunk/motorway roads; and

Permanent ATC monitoring sites on trunk roads/motorways. These are referred to as TRADS sites.

Common October 2011 Base 5.6. As noted, the majority of traffic count data used in the enhancements carried out to produce the

CSM model was collected in 2011. All counts for that year were adjusted to an October average. Similarly the few counts that were not undertaken in 2011 were also adjusted to a common October 2011 base.

5.7. The process used to adjust the count data employed data extracted from the Highways Agency‟s TRADS permanent monitoring sites within the area of interest. This included sites on the M4, M5 and M32. This data was selected as the TRADS sites represented a long established and stable source of full year data from which to calculate factors. The results of this process confirmed that most data collection outside of October 2011 had been undertaken in accordance with best practice and that a representative neutral month had been used.



Screenlines 5.8. A series of screenlines were created from the MCC and ATC data. Table 5.2 provides a

summary of the screenlines and Figure 5.2 presents their location, with Figure 5.1 showing the RSI cordon. The screenlines are identified as whether they have been used in model calibration or as validation datasets.

Table 5.2 – Summary of Model Screenlines

Screenline No of Links Calibration/Validation

M5 Screenline – EB 5 Calibration

M5 Screenline – WB 5 Calibration



North-South Railway Screenline - EB 5 Calibration

North-South Railway Screenline - WB 5 Calibration

East-West Railway Screenline - NB 9 Calibration

East-West Railway Screenline - SB 9 Calibration



Southmead Frome Screenline - NB 5 Validation

Southmead From Screenline - SB 5 Validation

Stoke Brook Screenline - EB 6 Validation

Stoke Brook Screenline - WB 6 Validation

NFH Core Cordon - Inbound 6 Validation

NFH Core Cordon - Outbound 6 Validation

NFH RSI – NB 4 Calibration

NFH RSI – SB 4 Calibration

A38 to M5 South Cribbs - NB 4 Calibration

A38 to M5 South Cribbs - SB 4 Calibration

Cribbs Causeway Cordon - Inbound 5 Calibration

Cribbs Causeway Cordon - Outbound 5 Calibration

Journey Time Data 5.9. Journey time survey data was made available by South Gloucestershire for six routes, named

routes A to F. The majority of this data was extracted from the Department for Transport‟s Strat-e-gis database as this provided a large number of observations for each link. Where this data was unavailable bespoken journey time surveys were undertaken. These journey time routes are presented in Figure 5.3 and the journey time data is presented in Table 8.8 and Appendix E.



Figure 5.2 – Location of Count Screenlines



Figure 5.3 – Location of Journey Time Routes



6. Network Development

Introduction 6.1. The starting point for the network was the NFH 2009 model networks for the AM, Inter Peak and

PM Peak. The highway model update addressed the following:

Audit of existing SATURN network;

Improvements to the zone and network representation within the Inner Core area; and

Inclusion of schemes delivered between 2009 and October 2011.

Network Audit 6.2. The area covered by the NFH Inner/Outer Core was already subject to a network audit process,

as part of the NFH Model update in 2011. A similar procedure was undertaken as part of the current study. This focussed primarily on the area within the extended Inner Core area. This area was fully audited for network speeds, junction priorities and correct locations of traffic signals. Coding changes, ranging from minor amendments to the full re-coding of junctions, were undertaken for substantial amounts of nodes and then incorporated within the revised model network.

6.3. In addition, Hayes Way, located between the A38 at Gypsy Patch Lane and Cribbs Causeway, which was opened in 2010, was included in the 2011 base year CSM networks.

6.4. As part of this audit, the SATURN summary output was inspected, any „warnings‟ for nodes in the Inner and Outer Core areas were investigated and coding changes made where required.

Improvements to Zone and Network Representation 6.5. Following the network audit, further changes have also been made to the network and zone

connectors in the NFH Inner Core and the extended core areas. These changes were made to ensure that the representation of the model network was accurate and that traffic from model zones would feed on to the network at appropriate locations. The changes made were:

Three new zones were created by subdividing the zone located either side of Lysander Road in Cribbs Causeway to accommodate separate zones for Cinema/Hollywood Bowl and Porcelanosa/car showrooms on the southern side of Lysander Road and the Makro store to the north;

The inclusion of future development located to the west of A4018 Cribbs Causeway and the area over the existing Filton Airfield;

An existing zone was subdivided to correctly model an area north of Hambrook Lane; and

Two East of Harry Stoke development zones were created to accommodate future developments in this area. Thus a zone was created for a development located north of the railway line at Stoke Gifford and the second zone is located west of the proposed Stoke Gifford Transport Link.

6.6. When making changes to the highway model zone structure it was essential to ensure that compatibility was maintained with public transport and demand elements of the model. Emphasis was therefore placed on sub-dividing existing zones and amalgamations were avoided wherever possible.



7. Trip Matrix Development

Introduction 7.1. The CSM model matrices contain two user classes (heavy and light vehicles). Different matrix

development processes were undertaken to update each of these classes. These processes were in line with the Department for Transport‟s guidance and are described in the following sections. This process is summarised in Figure 7.1.

Figure 7.1 – Matrix Development Process

Light Vehicles

Overview 7.2. The matrix development process used three sources of data:

The 2011 RSI data focused on Cribbs Causeway and Aztec West;

The synthetic data to supplement the RSI data; and

The existing NFH matrix for trips not represented by the RSI data or by the synthetic matrix.

7.3. In addition, automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) data was used for the development of the NFH matrices. This data was collected in 2009 in surveys using ANPR cameras at locations on the M4/M5/M32 motorways. The data from the cameras was then analysed to identify matched numbers between different sites. This provided data for „through‟ traffic that would otherwise not be sampled by the RSI site locations.

7.4. The matrix development process describes how the data from these sources was combined to create prior matrices to replicate the origins and destinations of trips in the model area. These matrices were then assigned to the model network to ensure that movements across the screenlines described earlier replicated those obtained from independent counts and that the total flows were achieved. Once these broad movements had been successfully replicated these matrices were then used in model calibration, as described in the next chapter.



RSI Data 7.5. The data from the RSI surveys were processed as follows:

- Checking the OD patterns - using GIS based analysis to remove illogical trips based on their origins and destinations as well as making other logic checks such as vehicle type and time of travel;

- Using MCC data to expand by vehicle type; and

- Controlling the observed RSI trips to two week ATC counts at the RSI site.

7.6. For the non-survey direction, a standard procedure was adopted in which the RSI data were transposed and controlled to the traffic volume in the non-survey direction. As an example, the morning peak survey direction data was transposed to form the evening peak non-survey direction data. However, this non-survey direction data was controlled to evening peak RSI survey direction trip purposes and evening peak non-survey direction MCC and ATC data. When subsequently combining matrices, the higher the expansion factor the less confidence was applied to that RSI matrix during the merging process. This indicated insufficient confidence in the data for the Bradley Stoke site – so this data was excluded from the RSI matrices (although data for this site from previous surveys was used in the construction of the NFH matrices).

7.7. Logical sense checks were carried out on the sites using GIS based analysis to remove trips which were considered illogical based on their origins and destinations. The remaining data was then used to create matrices for movements through each site.

Synthetic Data 7.8. The development of the synthetic data and the procedures used to complete this are fully

described in the NFH Local Model Validation Report7.

Existing NFH Data 7.9. Full details of the other data used in the development of the NFH matrices can also be found in

the NFH Local Model Validation Report8.

Combining RSI Matrices 7.10. The RSI matrices for each site were combined to form a single matrix of RSI movements. This

process was undertaken by first expanding the RSI data to the two-week ATC observed count and then eliminating double counting between sites through the process of variance weighting, where a RSI site specific variance is calculated on the basis of specific conditions at each site.

7.11. DMRB Volume 12 Section 2 Part 1 4.1.11 suggests that when the merging of RSI records the respective accuracies of the data sources should be considered and an estimate made of the statistical errors during the merge process. It also indicates that simple aggregation of all the interviewed and non-interviewed RSI matrices is inappropriate as this method fails to remove any double counted trips, especially for the long distance through traffic which may pass through several RSI sites.

7.12. In order to exclude double counting while combining the RSI data, the formula used in the LATS (1991) study was applied as recommended.

21

1221

VV

VfVffm

21

21

VV

VVVm

Where:

fm: the merged flows from two trip matrix sources; Vm: the merged variance from two variance matrix sources;

7 North Fringe to Hengrove Package Local Model Validation Report, September 2011




f1: the cell trip value for matrix 1 f2: the cell trip value for matrix 2 V1: the variance for matrix 1 V2: the variance for matrix 2

)1()( ij

n

ijij eefVar and e is the expansion factor for an RSI record

7.13. The RSI data represents „partial matrices‟ in that it contains only a sample of movements through each RSI site. Therefore, there is the requirement for:

A means of smoothing the estimates of zone to zone movements derived directly from the RSI sites to reduce the impact of sampling; and

A means of synthesising those movements which would not have been intercepted by the RSIs.

7.14. These two issues were addressed by synthesising complete trip matrices and subsequently modifying these synthetic matrices to accord with the reliable RSI data and traffic counts. This is discussed in the next section of this chapter.

Creating Light Vehicle Prior Matrices 7.15. Prior matrices for light vehicles, for each time period, were created by incorporating the new

observed RSI partial matrices with the trip matrices developed for the NFH highway model. Details of the creation of the NFH highway model trip matrices are provided in the NFH Local Model Validation Report

9.

7.16. The various sources of matrix data were combined to create the light vehicle prior matrices. This process can be summarised as follows:

Step 1: A Select Link Analysis was carried out on an assignment, which contained a matrix with a global value of 0.01 in every cell, to create a marker matrix identifying any potential OD movement which could be captured by one of the RSIs. This marker matrix would be the same for AM, Inter and PM Peak matrices;

Step 2: An „area of interest‟ synthetic matrix was produced which contained only movements, which could pass through the five RSI sites, identified in the marker matrix produced in step 1;

Step 3: The merged RSI matrix was then reduced by the size of the „area of interest‟ synthetic matrix. The percentage reductions of the merged RSI matrices were 27%, 7% and 18% respectively for AM, Inter and PM Peak models;

Step 4: The reduced merged RSI site matrices (step 3) were added to the area of interest synthetic matrices created in step 2. This ensured that the number of trips was constrained to the total number of vehicles counted at the RSI sites. This process converted the RSI partial matrices from a sample to a full population;

Step 5: 2009 to 2011 TEMPRO growth factors were applied to the NFH base matrices; and

Step 6: The trips passing through the area of interest marker matrix were removed from the 2011 factored NFH matrices (Step 5) and replaced with the full population matrix created in Step 4..

7.17. This process was repeated for the AM, Inter Peak and PM matrices.




Heavy Vehicles 7.18. The basis of the HGV prior matrix was the NFH HGV matrix. This, which was originally based on

G-BATS3 HGV matrix, represented the best source of available data for HGV movements. The matrices were factored from 2009 to 2011, using the Department for Transport‟s 2009 Road Transport Forecasts for England.



8. Model Calibration and Validation

Introduction 8.1. During the calibration stage, adjustments were made to the model parameters and trip matrices

to improve the match between observed and modelled data. This section of the report provides details of the techniques used and the changes made during the model calibration process and the results achieved.

8.2. The calibration procedure involved a number of activities:

Checks to ensure that link speeds on the network were realistic, and speed/flow calculations were operating as expected;

Checks to ensure that delay calculations at junctions were realistic;

Adjustment and checking of the network to ensure plausible and realistic routeing of traffic; and

Use of matrix estimation to adjust the prior trip matrices to match observed traffic flows from link and turning counts.

Network Calibration 8.3. Highway network calibration was undertaken to ensure that the model fully replicates the

observed traffic characteristics in terms of speeds, traffic throughputs and delays by systematically reviewing model assignments and modifying network parameters as above to improve the model‟s fit against observed calibration data.

8.4. The process involved checking and adjusting the highway network principally along the major corridors. Checks were undertaken to ensure that link lengths, turn saturation flows and capacities were correct. Adjustments were also made to speed/flow curves and to centroid connector loading points where appropriate.

8.5. The allocation of centroid connectors for internal zones was examined to verify that trips were loading onto the network at locations that are both sensible and realistic.

Matrix Calibration

Matrix Estimation 8.6. On completion of the highway network calibration, matrix calibration could take place. This

involved checking the trip data used to produce the matrices and focused principally on ensuring that traffic was correctly assigned to the network.

8.7. Initially, estimation techniques were applied to the matrix to calibrate the matrices against observed directional link counts using standard ME2 procedures. These were arranged along a series of calibration screenlines crossing the CSM core study area. Turning counts were not used in the matrix estimation process.

8.8. The SATURN modules SATME2 and SATPIJA are used for matrix estimation and in combination match assigned link flows in the model with observed traffic counts. The matrix estimation process forms part of the calibration process and is designed to modify the origin-destination volumes by reference to the observed traffic counts. Trips are adjusted in the prior matrix to produce the estimated matrix, which is most likely to be consistent with the traffic counts.

8.9. This process requires that:

the trip matrix estimation process has converged to a sufficiently stable solution;



travel patterns at a sector level are reasonable;

changes between prior matrix and post matrix estimation are within acceptable bounds; and

trip length distributions in the estimated matrix are reasonable.

8.10. The matrix estimation process was applied to adjust the light vehicle matrix and was then followed by the heavy vehicle matrix. This was undertaken separately for each of the three modelled time periods. The main features of the use of matrix estimation in the CSM were as follows:

In order to ensure accurate representation of the paths chosen by traffic within the network six iterations of SATPIJA/ME were used. In each case the output matrix was re-assigned, the paths re-built through SATPIJA followed by matrix estimation then undertaken on the original prior matrix;

Matrix estimation was undertaken on 249 individual counts. 105 of these counts were located within a screenline;

Checks were undertaken to ensure that the quality and consistency of the input count data was high. In particular, counts on adjacent links were used, ensuring that observed flows into a node matched the observed flows out; and

A low XAMAX value of 2.5 was used to restrict any matrix estimation cell to cell changes by a factor of only 2.5 or 1/2.5.

Comparison of Prior and Post-ME2 Matrices 8.11. The matrix estimation process was monitored to ensure that the estimation procedure converged

to a stable solution. The total trips for each iteration of the process for the AM Peak, Inter Peak and PM Peak models are shown in Tables 8.1 to 8.3 respectively.

Table 8.1 – Matrix Estimation Totals: AM Peak

Iteration Total PCUs Abs Difference % Change

Prior 159806 - -

Post – 1 160483 676 0.4%

Post – 2 160857 374 0.2%

Post – 3 160823 -34 0.0%

Post – 4 160861 38 0.0%

Post – 5 161061 199 0.1%

Post – 6 161033 -27 0.0%



Table 8.2 – Matrix Estimation Totals: Inter Peak


Prior 128838 - -

Post – 1 130061 1222 0.9%

Post – 2 129879 -181 -0.1%

Post – 3 129905 26 0.0%

Post – 4 129869 -36 0.0%

Post – 5 129885 16 0.0%

Post – 6 129875 -10 0.0%

Table 8.3 – Matrix Estimation Totals: PM Peak


Prior 145590 - -

Post – 1 146952 1362 0.9%

Post – 2 146973 21 0.0%

Post – 3 146913 -60 0.0%

Post – 4 147082 170 0.1%

Post – 5 147155 72 0.0%

Post – 6 147197 43 0.0%

8.12. Tables 8.1 to 8.3 show that for all three time periods the matrix estimation process converges to

a stable solution rapidly. Furthermore, the change in trips between iteration 1 and iteration 6 were less than 1% for all three models, indicating that the matrix estimation process had reached an equilibrium state.

8.13. The matrix estimation process was then reviewed to establish which iteration gave the best fit of observed and modelled flows. This analysis revealed that for AM Peak model iteration 4 gave the best fit and in the Inter and PM Peak models the sixth iteration gave the best fit. Subsequent analysis is therefore focused on data extracted from these three iterations.

Sector Analysis 8.14. Sector analysis of a matrix provides a method of examining the movement patterns present in

large matrices. The tables presented in Appendix F show the 600 zone model matrix „compressed‟ into a 17 zone matrix for the three modelled time periods respectively. In addition, tables are provided showing the absolute and percentage differences between the prior and post matrices. Furthermore, given the wide range in the sectored cell values, the differences between the prior and post matrices are also shown expressed in terms of the GEH statistic. A plan of the sectoring system is also shown in Appendix F.

8.15. These results show that in the AM Peak, 95% of the 289 possible sector to sector movements have a GEH value of less than 5, 4% have a GEH value between 5 and 10, while only 1% has a GEH of greater than 10. They also indicate that 97% of the Inter Peak sector to sector movements have a GEH value of less than 5, 2% have a GEH value between 5 and 10 while only 1 sector to sector movement has a GEH value greater than 10. In the PM Peak 94% of the 289 possible sector to sector movements have a GEH value less than 5, 4% have a GEH value between 5 and 10 and only 2% has a GEH value greater than 10.



8.16. These results indicate that the ME process has not had a significant impact on the underlying patterns in the input matrices for all time periods and has materially improved the final matrices to be used in the forecasting process.

Screenline Calibration

Total Flow

8.17. There are eleven screenlines each with two directions (as described in Chapter 5) providing a total of 22 screenlines by direction. The locations of the screenlines are show in Figure 5.2. The comparison of modelled and observed flows across the screenlines was undertaken using the DMRB guideline criteria presented in Table 3.1. The results of this comparison were:

AM Peak. 21 of the 22 screenlines achieve the guideline criteria of GEH < 4 for the total screenline flow. The remaining screenline has a GEH of 5.1 and only marginally fails to achieve the guideline criteria. Clearly this achieves the DMRB criteria target of „all or nearly all‟ screenlines achieving the value of GEH<4;

Inter Peak. All 22 screenlines achieve the guideline criteria. This achieves the target of „all or nearly all‟ screenlines achieving the value of GEH<4; and

PM Peak. 21 of the 22 screenlines achieve the guideline criteria of GEH < 4 for the total screenline flow. The remaining screenline has a GEH of 5.4 and only marginally fails to achieve the guideline criteria. Clearly this achieves the DMRB criteria target of „all or nearly all‟ screenlines achieving the value of GEH<4.

8.18. Table 8.4 presents a summary of the screenline calibration results. Appendix A presents further detail on the screenline calibration for each time period.

Table 8.4 – Screenline Calibration Results

Screenline No of Links

AM IP PM

GEH Pass GEH Pass GEH Pass

M5 Screenline – EB 5 1.1 PASS 0.1 PASS 1.8 PASS

M5 Screenline – WB 5 0.4 PASS 1.5 PASS 0.1 PASS


M4 Screenline – WB 6 5.1 Fail 1.9 PASS 2.2 PASS

North-South Railway Screenline – EB 5 3.6 PASS 0.3 PASS 3.5 PASS

North-South Railway Screenline – WB 5 1.6 PASS 0.1 PASS 0.4 PASS

East-West Railway Screenline – NB 9 0.7 PASS 2.1 PASS 0.2 PASS

East-West Railway Screenline – SB 9 0.6 PASS 0.2 PASS 0.6 PASS


M32 Screenline – WB 7 1.6 PASS 1.4 PASS 0.5 PASS

Southmead Frome Screenline – NB 5 0.0 PASS 1.0 PASS 1.4 PASS

Southmead From Screenline – SB 5 3.9 PASS 1.0 PASS 1.6 PASS

Stoke Brook Screenline – EB 6 2.0 PASS 0.0 PASS 2.3 PASS

Stoke Brook Screenline – WB 6 3.5 PASS 1.2 PASS 0.8 PASS

NFH Core Cordon – Inbound 6 0.6 PASS 0.1 PASS 0.2 PASS

NFH Core Cordon – Outbound 6 0.2 PASS 0.6 PASS 3.0 PASS

NFH RSI – NB 4 0.2 PASS 1.0 PASS 0.6 PASS

NFH RSI – SB 4 0.7 PASS 0.1 PASS 0.8 PASS

A38 to M5 South Cribbs – NB 4 0.3 PASS 1.1 PASS 5.4 Fail

A38 to M5 South Cribbs – SB 4 1.3 PASS 2.0 PASS 1.6 PASS

Cribbs Causeway Cordon – Inbound 5 0.0 PASS 2.5 PASS 3.4 PASS

Cribbs Causeway Cordon – Outbound 5 0.1 PASS 2.4 PASS 1.4 PASS



Individual Link Flow Calibration

Link Flows

8.19. Flow calibration is also based on a comparison of observed counts and modelled traffic flows. The aim of the comparison is to establish a good fit, to ensure that the model represents both travel demand and traffic patterns in a robust fashion.

8.20. A summary of the flow calibration against the full data set is presented in Table 8.5 with a detailed link by link assessment presented in Appendix C. Figure 8.1 details the locations of the calibration counts, with further localised locations and count IDs shown in Appendix C.

Figure 8.1 – Location of Calibration Counts

Table 8.5 – Summary of Individual Flow Calibration

Criteria AM Peak Inter Peak PM Peak

Counts: Flow <700 142 177 139

Counts: Flow 700 to 2700 92 65 93

Counts : Flow >2700 13 5 15

Total Counts 247 247 247

Counts: Flow <700 within DMRB Criteria 92% 95% 84%

Counts: Flow 700 to 2700 within DMRB Criteria 89% 100% 92%

Counts: Flow >2700 within DMRB Criteria 100% 100% 100%

Total Counts: % Within DMRB Flow Criteria 91% 97% 88%

Total Counts: % Within GEH Flow Criteria 89% 95% 88%



8.21. The results in Table 8.5 can be summarised as follows:

The AM Peak flow calibration achieves 91% of counts within the DMRB criteria and 89% of counts within the GEH criteria. In both cases, the guideline values of 85% are achieved;

The Inter Peak flow calibration achieves 97% of counts within the DMRB criteria and 95% per cent of counts within the GEH criteria. In both cases, the guideline values of 85% are achieved; and

The PM Peak flow calibration achieves 88% of counts within the DMRB criteria and 88% per cent of counts within the GEH criteria. In both cases, the guideline values of 85% are achieved.

8.22. The results in Table 8.5 demonstrate that an acceptable level of fit has been achieved in terms of the DMRB and GEH flow criteria between the observed counts and modelled flows in all three time periods.

R-Squared Values

8.23. The guidance in DMRB Volume 12 also considers desired levels for the statistical regression of observed and modelled traffic flows. The desired levels for the two main regression statistics to measure the goodness of fit are an R-squared value greater than 0.95, and a regression curve gradient in the range of 0.9 to 1.1.

8.24. Regression curves for the full count set are shown in Figures 8.2 to 8.4 for the three modelled time periods. These figures highlight the observed and modelled flows with GEH values less than and greater than 5.

8.25. Excellent R-squared values are shown (all greater than 0.99), and all regression curve gradients fall within the specified bounds. This demonstrates that a very high level of correlation has been achieved between the observed counts and modelled flows.



Figure 8.2 – R-squared Analysis: AM Peak (calibration)

Figure 8.3 – R-squared Analysis: Inter Peak (calibration)



Figure 8.4 – R-squared Analysis: PM Peak (calibration)

Validation

Link Flows

8.26. Link flow validation is also based on a comparison of observed counts and modelled traffic flows. A summary of the flow validation is presented in Table 8.6 below, with a detailed link by link assessment presented in Appendix D. A total of 40 links counts, at 20 sites, were used in the validation process. These counts were independent of those used as part of the model calibration process.

8.27. The locations of these counts are all within the model area of interest with six of the sites lying within validation screenlines. Figure 8.5 details the locations of the validation counts, with further localised locations and count IDs shown in Appendix D.

Table 8.6 – Summary of Individual Flow Validation

Criteria AM Peak Inter Peak PM Peak

Counts: Flow <700 21 27 18

Counts: Flow 700 to 2700 17 11 20

Counts : Flow >2700 2 2 2

Total Counts 40 40 40

Counts: Flow <700 within DMRB Criteria 76% 93% 78%

Counts: Flow 700 to 2700 within DMRB Criteria 88% 100% 90%

Counts: Flow >2700 within DMRB Criteria 100% 100% 100%

Total Counts: % Within DMRB Flow Criteria 83% 95% 85%

Total Counts: % Within GEH Flow Criteria 85% 95% 88%



Figure 8.5 – Location of Validation Counts

8.28. In summary Table 8.6 shows that:

The AM Peak flow validation achieves 83% of counts within the DMRB flow criteria and 85% of counts within the GEH criteria. Although the flow is marginally lower than the 85% flow validation criterion, the GEH guideline values are achieved;

The Inter Peak flow validation achieves 95% of counts within the DMRB criteria and 95% per cent of counts within the GEH criteria. In both cases, the guideline values are achieved; and

The PM Peak flow validation achieves 85% of counts within the DMRB criteria and 88% per cent of counts within the GEH criteria. In both cases, the guideline values are achieved.

8.29. The results in Table 8.6 demonstrate that a good level of fit has been achieved in terms of the DMRB and GEH flow criteria between the observed counts and modelled flows in all three time periods.

8.30. The key calibration and validation counts on the principal roads in the area of interest are shown in Figure 8.6 to 8.8 for AM, Inter and PM Peak periods.



Figure 8.6 – Validation on Key Links – Comparison of Counts and Modelled flows - AM Peak



Figure 8.7 – Validation on Key Links – Comparison of Counts and Modelled flows - Inter Peak



Figure 8.8 – Validation on Key Links – Comparison of Counts and Modelled flows - PM Peak



R-squared Values

8.31. Regression analysis for the full count set is shown in Figures 8.9 to 8.11 for all three modelled time periods. These figures highlight the observed and modelled flows with GEH values less than and greater than 5.

8.32. R-squared values are shown (all greater than 0.98), and all regression curve gradients fall within the specified bounds. This demonstrates that a very high level of correlation has been achieved between the observed counts and modelled flows.

Figure 8.9 – R-squared Analysis: AM Peak (validation)



Figure 8.10 – R-squared Analysis: Inter Peak (validation)

Figure 8.11 – R-squared Analysis: PM Peak (validation)



Matrix Validation

Trip Length Distribution

8.33. A common problem with matrix estimation is that the process seeks to achieve the target counts by increasing the proportion of shorter distance trips. Comparison of the trip length distribution between the prior and the post-ME2 matrix can highlight whether such a change has occurred. Such a comparison of the trip length distribution of the prior and post ME2 matrices for the three time periods modelled in the CSM is shown in Figures 8.12 to 8.14.

8.34. This comparison of trip length distribution shows that in all three time periods the changes between the prior and post-ME2 matrices are small. Hence, it can be concluded that the matrix estimation process has not had a significant impact on the modelled trip length distributions, with the post ME2 trip length distributions generally being very closely matched with the prior trip length distributions.

Figure 8.12 – Prior and Post-ME2 Trip Length Distribution: AM Peak



Figure 8.13 – Prior and Post-ME2 Trip Length Distribution: Inter Peak

Figure 8.14 – Prior and Post-ME2 Trip Length Distribution: PM Peak



Trip-End Validation 8.35. Table 8.7 below shows the difference between the prior and post ME2 origin and destination trip

ends (matrix row and column totals). There are a total of 600 observations for each time period and vehicle class. The GEH statistic, which takes account of the absolute and percentage differences, was used to provide a comparison of the trip end totals together with an assessment based on percentage difference.

8.36. The assessment is presented in Table 8.7.

Table 8.7 – Summary of Pre and Post ME2 Changes in Trip End Totals

Time Period End User Class

Total GEH<4 GEH<4 diff<25% diff<25%

AM Origin Lights 600 561 94% 570 95%

HGVs 600 593 99% 570 95%

Destination All

600 572 95% 582 97%

IP Origin Lights 600 580 97% 580 97%

HGVs 600 592 99% 580 97%

Destination All

600 586 98% 581 97%

PM Origin Lights 600 570 95% 566 94%

HGVs 600 593 99% 566 94%

Destination All

600 565 94% 567 95%

8.37. This shows that at in all time periods a minimum of 94% of all trip ends have a GEH value of less than 4 and at least 94% of all trip ends have an absolute change of 25% or less between the prior and post ME2 trip ends.

Cell Level Matrix Validation

8.38. Matrix scatter plots of the prior and post ME2 comparison are provided in Figures 8.15 to 8.17. The regression formulas for all time periods are:

AM y=0.988x R squared = 0.9207

IP y=1.000x R squared = 0.9325

PM y=0.992x R squared = 0.9619

8.39. Generally, the scatter plots show a good correlation between the prior and post ME2 matrices with R Squared values all above 0.92 for all time periods. The gradient of the line of best fit is also within 0.012 of a perfect fit.



Figure 8.15 – R-squared Analysis of Pre and Post MES Matrix Cells: AM Peak

Figure 8.16 – R-squared Analysis of Pre and Post MES Matrix Cells: Inter Peak



Figure 8.17 – R-squared Analysis of Pre and Post MES Matrix Cells: PM Peak

Journey Time Validation 8.40. Wherever possible journey time validation was undertaken using 2011 Strat-e-gis data.

However, in the case of the new Hayes Way data was not available from that source, so bespoke journey time surveys were carried out instead. In both instances, modelled journey times were compared against observed data for all three modelled periods. Summaries of the overall modelled and observed journey time comparisons for each route are provided in Tables 8.8 to 8.10.

8.41. The results are summarised as:

In the AM Peak 11 out of 12 routes (92%) satisfy the DMRB journey time validation criteria;

In the Inter Peak 11 out of 12 routes (92%) satisfy the DRMB journey time validation criteria; and

In the PM Peak 11 out of 12 routes (92%) satisfy the DMRB journey time validation criteria.



Table 8.8 – Journey Time Summary: AM Peak

Route Route Description Dir Obs Mod %Diff Within DMRB

A Hayes Way WB 02:30 02:03 18% Yes

EB 02:43 01:53 31% Yes

B Aztec West to A4174 NB 12:58 11:49 9% Yes

SB 21:21 14:47 31% No

C Brook Way to Cold Harbour Lane NB 15:39 13:35 13% Yes

SB 13:11 13:50 -5% Yes

D Gypsy Patch Lane / A38 / Filton Road Clock 15:52 15:39 1% Yes

Anti 19:55 17:00 15% Yes

E A38 to A4174 via Motorways SB 18:08 16:01 12% Yes

NB 16:48 14:43 12% Yes

F A4018 between M5 and A4162 NB 07:30 07:58 -6% Yes

SB 08:53 08:22 6% Yes

Table 8.9 – Journey Time Summary: Inter Peak



EB 02:40 01:53 29% Yes

B Aztec West to A4174 NB 09:31 09:48 -3% Yes

SB 09:56 12:35 -27% No

C Brook Way to Cold Harbour Lane NB 11:14 11:56 -6% Yes

SB 10:10 11:29 -13% Yes

D Gypsy Patch Lane / A38 / Filton Road Clock 10:38 11:57 -12% Yes

Anti 14:32 14:50 -2% Yes

E A38 to A4174 via Motorways SB 11:52 12:31 -5% Yes

NB 10:13 11:26 -12% Yes


SB 07:06 07:15 -2% Yes

Table 8.10 – Journey Time Summary: PM Peak



EB 02:36 01:54 27% Yes

B Aztec West to A4174 NB 13:42 11:43 14% Yes

SB 22:44 18:00 21% No

C Brook Way to Cold Harbour Lane NB 19:04 17:20 9% Yes

SB 14:25 15:33 -8% Yes

D Gypsy Patch Lane / A38 / Filton Road Clock 15:12 13:56 8% Yes

Anti 22:25 19:04 15% Yes

E A38 to A4174 via Motorways SB 19:23 20:05 -4% Yes

NB 11:51 12:41 -7% Yes


SB 10:26 08:53 15% Yes



8.42. These results demonstrate that all three time periods display excellent journey time validation with only one journey time route failing to meet the DMRB criteria. For each time period it is the same route which fails, namely the southbound direction on the Aztec West to A4174 route.

8.43. For all time periods the modelled journey time on this route consistently matches the observed times until the penultimate timing point at the Old Gloucester Road/Bristol Road priority junction. However, in the AM and PM Peak the model could not fully replicate the delay shown at the Old Gloucester Road/Bristol Road priority junction. This leads to a less than optimum validation on this route.

8.44. As a consequence, the results in Appendix E show that both the AM and PM models produced a significant amount of delay at this junction, whereas the observed journey times show a slightly greater amount of delay. Conversely, in the Inter Peak the modelled journey times show too much delay at the Old Gloucester Road/Bristol Road junction.

8.45. In the AM and PM models additional tests were carried out to create more delay within the Old Gloucester Road/Bristol Road area. As a consequence of this change, the modelled flows on both Old Gloucester Road and Hambrook Lane dropped significantly. This suggests that the reduced saturation flow, included in the model to produce significant delay for the AM and PM Peak time periods, adversely affects the Inter Peak validation.

8.46. In the immediate surrounding area of Old Gloucester Road/Bristol Road there are three two-way calibration count sites, these being on Old Gloucester Road, Bristol Road and Hambrook Lane. All six counts pass the DMRB flow and GEH criteria in the AM and Inter Peak with five passing the same criteria in the PM Peak. This indicates that the model has the correct volume of demand in the area.

8.47. Hence, although the journey time route fails to fully meet the DMRB criterion, the model produces the correct volume of traffic at this junction, the modelled journey time matches the observed for the majority of the route and the model produces a significant amount of delay at the junction.

8.48. DMRB states that 85% of all routes should pass the specified criteria. All three time periods validate with a 92% pass rate for the DMRB criteria concluding that the CSM correctly models journey times within the area of interest. Therefore the journey time validation is considered satisfactory.

8.49. The time distance plots for the journey times are shown in Appendix E – Journey Time Validation.

Model Convergence 8.50. The convergence for each model period is summarised in Table 8.11. The DMRB convergence

criteria requires that the percentage of links where flows change by less than 5% should be greater than 90% for four consecutive iterations, while the delta statistic should be less than 1%.



Table 8.11 – Summary of Model Convergence

Time Period Assignment-Simulation Iterations Delta (%) % Flow

AM Peak

32 0.0050 99.7

33 0.0053 99.9

34 0.0058 99.8

35 0.0052 99.8

36 0.0043 99.8

Inter-Peak

12 0.0092 99.1

13 0.0071 99.4

14 0.0068 99.4

15 0.0059 99.7

16 0.0054 99.7

PM Peak

95 0.0202 99.1

96 0.0198 99.3

97 0.0291 99.1

98 0.0244 99.2

99 0.0215 99.2

8.51. In summary:

The AM Peak model converges after 36 assignment loops and the model clearly achieves the DMRB convergence criteria, with 99.8% of links changing by less than 5% for four consecutive iterations and a stable delta statistic of less than 1.00% (0.0043%).

The Inter Peak model converges after 16 assignment loops and model clearly achieves the DMRB convergence criteria, with 99.7% of links changing by less than 5% for four consecutive iterations and a stable delta statistic of less than 1.00% (0.0054%).

The PM Peak model converges after 99 assignment loops and model clearly achieves the DMRB convergence criteria, with 99.2% of links changing by less than 5% for four consecutive iterations and a stable delta statistic of less than 1.00% (0.0215%).

8.52. In conclusion, all three time periods can be regarded as having converged successfully.



9. Summary of Model Development

9.1. This report describes the development, calibration and validation of the South Gloucestershire Core Strategy 2011 base year highway assignment model. It describes how the base year model was calibrated to represent current travel conditions, and validated against recent 2011 observed traffic flow and journey time data.

9.2. In order to create this model, the 2009 base model North Fringe Hengrove (NFH) highway assignment model has been significantly enhanced and updated. This has included developing a more detailed highway model for the area of Cribbs Causeway.

9.3. The base year enhancement covers the Cribbs Causeway and East of Harry Stoke areas, where improvements were made to the zone system and the network was further refined. Trip patterns were updated from the 2009 NFH base model to 2011 and merged with fresh additional roadside interview data for 2011 at five locations. Separate models were developed to represent the AM Peak, Inter Peak and PM Peak hours.

Summary of Standards Achieved 9.4. The DMRB Volume 12 describes the standards against which CSM should be assessed. The

results of this assessment can be summarised as follows:

The AM Peak CSM meets acceptability guidelines for screenline flow validation as almost all of the screenlines meet DMRB criteria;

The Inter-Peak CSM meets acceptability guidelines for screenline flow validation as all of the screenlines meet DMRB criteria; and

The PM Peak CSM meets acceptability guidelines for screenline flow validation for nearly all of the screenlines against the DMRB criteria.

9.5. All of the models meet all of the DMRB acceptability guidelines for journey time validation (85% of routes).

Assessment of Fitness for Purpose 9.6. The South Gloucestershire Core Strategy highway model is based on a combination of recent

(2011) observed roadside interview data in the Cribbs Causeway and Aztec West areas and synthetic matrices based on planning data and observed RSI data across the Bristol urban area. This data supplements the older (2009) NFH data which is used in those areas of the model outside of the main area of influence of the schemes. This provides greater certainty regarding the nature of the demand in the CSM.

9.7. In addition the updated model provides an improved zoning system and network detail in the Cribbs Causeway and Aztec West areas. This has improved the loading of traffic in the area of interest.

9.8. To validate the CSM, the modelled and observed traffic flows were compared for all key links identified as cordons and screenlines. The results of this procedure indicate that the CSM exceeds the DMRB acceptability guidelines (based on the GEH statistic and flow) in all three modelled time periods.

9.9. Therefore this model is considered to provide a valid basis for the forecasting procedures to be carried out in later stages of this study.



Appendix A. Screenline Flow Calibration

A.1. Screenline Flow Calibration

Description Direction Val/ Cal

AM Peak Inter Peak PM Peak

Obs Mod Diff. GEH Pass/ Fail



M5 Screenline

EB Cal 6323 6233 -91 1.1 Pass 3293 3286 -6 0.1 Pass 4240 4355 115 1.8 Pass

WB Cal 3349 3370 20 0.4 Pass 3171 3257 86 1.5 Pass 6026 6018 -8 0.1 Pass

M4 Screenline

EB Cal 3013 2946 -67 1.2 Pass 1686 1751 65 1.6 Pass 3270 3143 -127 2.2 Pass

WB Cal 3907 3593 -315 5.1 Fail 1634 1710 76 1.9 Pass 2464 2354 -110 2.2 Pass

North-South Railway Screenline

EB Cal 3502 3716 214 3.6 Pass 2717 2701 -16 0.3 Pass 2921 3113 192 3.5 Pass

WB Cal 2951 3038 87 1.6 Pass 2658 2663 5 0.1 Pass 3400 3421 21 0.4 Pass

East-West Railway Screenline

NB Cal 3481 3521 40 0.7 Pass 3253 3134 -119 2.1 Pass 4868 4854 -14 0.2 Pass

SB Cal 5475 5430 -46 0.6 Pass 3390 3402 12 0.2 Pass 4138 4177 39 0.6 Pass

M32 Screenline

EB Cal 4873 4802 -71 1.0 Pass 4383 4402 19 0.3 Pass 7432 7430 -1 0.0 Pass

WB Cal 7263 7129 -134 1.6 Pass 4110 4021 -89 1.4 Pass 4166 4133 -33 0.5 Pass

Southmead Frome Screenline

NB Val 3874 3875 0 0.0 Pass 2317 2366 49 1.0 Pass 2323 2259 -65 1.4 Pass

SB Val 2343 2537 193 3.9 Pass 2286 2333 47 1.0 Pass 3248 3156 -92 1.6 Pass

Stoke Brook Screenline

EB Val 4172 4300 128 2.0 Pass 3025 3027 1 0.0 Pass 4008 4154 146 2.3 Pass

WB Val 4164 3940 -224 3.5 Pass 3035 2969 -67 1.2 Pass 4475 4526 52 0.8 Pass

NFH Core Cordon

Inbound Val 5708 5752 44 0.6 Pass 3320 3323 3 0.1 Pass 4829 4843 14 0.2 Pass

Outbound Val 4644 4631 -12 0.2 Pass 3527 3563 36 0.6 Pass 5179 4966 -213 3.0 Pass

NFH RSI Screenline NB Cal 2614 2624 10 0.2 Pass 2365 2416 51 1.0 Pass 3912 3947 35 0.6 Pass



Description Direction Val/ Cal





SB Cal 3987 4032 45 0.7 Pass 2298 2294 -4 0.1 Pass 2707 2747 40 0.8 Pass

A38 to M5 South Cribbs

NB Cal 7405 7431 26 0.3 Pass 5528 5611 83 1.1 Pass 6827 7277 450 5.4 Fail

SB Cal 6906 7014 108 1.3 Pass 5565 5416 -149 2.0 Pass 7779 7642 -137 1.6 Pass

Cribbs Causeway Cordon

Inbound Cal 3059 3060 0 0.0 Pass 3228 3371 144 2.5 Pass 3748 3962 214 3.4 Pass

Outbound Cal 2234 2227 -7 0.1 Pass 2982 3116 135 2.4 Pass 4122 4034 -88 1.4 Pass



Appendix B. Screenline Individual Flow Calibration

B.1. Screenline Individual Flow Calibration

Description


Count Model Diff % GEH GEH Count Model Diff % GEH GEH Count Model Diff % GEH GEH

M5 Screenline Eastbound

SB - Hallen Road s/o Windsor Crescent, Hallen 228 231 3 1% 0.2 Pass 134 134 0 0% 0.0 Pass 182 185 3 2% 0.2 Pass

A4018 Cribbs Causeway s/o Hollywood Lane - SB 1039 1032 -7 -1% 0.2 Pass 596 592 -5 -1% 0.2 Pass 955 945 -9 -1% 0.3 Pass

Merlin RSI - NON INT 851 864 13 1% 0.4 Pass 794 839 45 6% 1.6 Pass 862 1069 208 24% 6.7 Fail

EB - Highwood Lane east of Merlin Road 556 485 -71 -13% 3.1 Pass 589 542 -47 -8% 2.0 Pass 598 469 -129 -22% 5.6 Fail

A38 Gloucester Road s/o M5 J16 - SB 3648 3621 -27 -1% 0.5 Pass 1179 1180 0 0% 0.0 Pass 1644 1687 43 3% 1.1 Pass

6323 6233 -91 -1% 1.1 Pass 3293 3286 -6 0% 0.1 Pass 4240 4355 115 3% 1.8 Pass

M5 Screenline Westbound

NB - Hallen Road s/o Windsor Crescent, Hallen 225 227 2 1% 0.1 Pass 172 173 1 0% 0.1 Pass 366 371 5 1% 0.2 Pass

A4018 Cribbs Causeway s/o Hollywood Lane - NB 1129 1140 11 1% 0.3 Pass 657 659 2 0% 0.1 Pass 1258 1264 5 0% 0.2 Pass

Merlin RSI - INT 400 303 -96 -24% 5.1 Fail 589 678 89 15% 3.5 Pass 1054 1019 -34 -3% 1.1 Pass

WB - Highwood Lane east of Merlin Road 249 268 18 7% 1.1 Pass 422 432 10 2% 0.5 Pass 605 627 22 4% 0.9 Pass

A38 Gloucester Road s/o M5 J16 - NB 1346 1432 86 6% 2.3 Pass 1331 1315 -15 -1% 0.4 Pass 2743 2737 -6 0% 0.1 Pass

3349 3370 20 1% 0.4 Pass 3171 3257 86 3% 1.5 Pass 6026 6018 -8 0% 0.1 Pass


From Junction - Trench Lane 171 183 13 7% 1.0 Pass 120 120 0 0% 0.0 Pass 522 550 27 5% 1.2 Pass

NB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 518 399 -119 -23% 5.6 Fail 117 117 0 0% 0.0 Pass 413 378 -35 -8% 1.7 Pass



EB - B4057 Beacon Lane w/o Church Lane, Winterbourne 699 699 0 0% 0.0 Pass 529 541 11 2% 0.5 Pass 923 745 -177 -19% 6.1 Fail

EB - B4058 Bristol Road e/o B4427, Hambrook 347 332 -15 -4% 0.8 Pass 313 314 0 0% 0.0 Pass 595 586 -9 -1% 0.4 Pass

From Junction - Badminton SB Road 1229 1231 2 0% 0.0 Pass 582 635 53 9% 2.2 Pass 796 828 33 4% 1.1 Pass

NB Bromley Heath Road north of A4174 Avon Ring Road 49 102 53 109% 6.1 Fail 25 25 0 -1% 0.1 Pass 22 55 33 151% 5.4 Fail

3013 2946 -67 -2% 1.2 Pass 1686 1751 65 4% 1.6 Pass 3270 3143 -127 -4% 2.2 Pass


Towards Junction, MCC, 483, M4-1, Trench Lane 779 767 -12 -2% 0.4 Pass 113 134 21 19% 1.9 Pass 164 164 0 0% 0.0 Pass

SB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 379 145 -234 -62% 14.5 Fail 105 77 -27 -26% 2.8 Pass 212 108 -104 -49% 8.2 Fail

WB - B4057 Beacon Lane w/o Church Lane, Winterbourne 1107 1099 -9 -1% 0.3 Pass 528 539 11 2% 0.5 Pass 696 698 2 0% 0.1 Pass

WB - B4058 Bristol Road e/o B4427, Hambrook 679 703 24 3% 0.9 Pass 297 298 1 0% 0.0 Pass 443 455 12 3% 0.6 Pass

Towards Junction, MCC, 505, M4-6, Badminton SB Road 882 797 -85 -10% 2.9 Pass 578 648 70 12% 2.8 Pass 883 885 1 0% 0.0 Pass

SB Bromley Heath Road north of A4174 Avon Ring Road 80 82 2 2% 0.2 Pass 14 13 0 -2% 0.1 Pass 66 45 -21 -32% 2.9 Pass

3907 3593 -315 -8% 5.1 Fail 1634 1710 76 5% 1.9 Pass 2464 2354 -110 -4% 2.2 Pass

North-South Railway Screenline Eastbound

A4174 Station Rd (w) from New Rd Junction - WB 1939 2134 195 10% 4.3 Pass 1208 1207 -2 0% 0.1 Pass 1251 1443 192 15% 5.2 Fail

EB - Bonnington Walk 259 265 6 2% 0.4 Pass 192 194 2 1% 0.1 Pass 257 263 6 2% 0.4 Pass

EB - Lockleaze Road 184 185 1 0% 0.1 Pass 134 134 1 0% 0.0 Pass 150 147 -3 -2% 0.2 Pass

SB - B4469 Muller Road 703 717 14 2% 0.5 Pass 768 752 -17 -2% 0.6 Pass 686 693 7 1% 0.3 Pass

NB - GLENFROME ROAD NORTH OF ST WERBURGHS PARK 417 415 -1 0% 0.1 Pass 414 414 0 0% 0.0 Pass 577 566 -10 -2% 0.4 Pass

3502 3716 214 6% 3.6 Pass 2717 2701 -16 -1% 0.3 Pass 2921 3113 192 7% 3.5 Pass

North-South Railway Screenline Westbound



A4174 Station Rd (w) to New Rd Junction - EB 1188 1233 45 4% 1.3 Pass 1154 1160 6 0% 0.2 Pass 1479 1510 31 2% 0.8 Pass

WB - Bonnington Walk 201 187 -14 -7% 1.0 Pass 143 143 0 0% 0.0 Pass 240 240 0 0% 0.0 Pass

WB - Lockleaze Road 175 176 1 1% 0.1 Pass 170 170 1 0% 0.1 Pass 226 226 -1 0% 0.0 Pass

NB - B4469 Muller Road 973 994 21 2% 0.7 Pass 838 834 -4 -1% 0.1 Pass 1029 1001 -28 -3% 0.9 Pass

SB - GLENFROME ROAD NORTH OF ST WERBURGHS PARK 414 449 34 8% 1.6 Pass 353 356 3 1% 0.1 Pass 426 444 18 4% 0.9 Pass

2951 3038 87 3% 1.6 Pass 2658 2663 5 0% 0.1 Pass 3400 3421 21 1% 0.4 Pass

East-West Railway Screenline Northbound

EB - A4176 CLIFTON DOWN WEST OF THE AVENUE 819 828 9 1% 0.3 Pass 582 581 -1 0% 0.1 Pass 646 649 3 1% 0.1 Pass

NB - A4018 WHITELADIES ROAD, NORTH OF COTHAM HILL 531 526 -5 -1% 0.2 Pass 672 671 -1 0% 0.0 Pass 702 688 -15 -2% 0.6 Pass

NB - HAMPTON ROAD, NORTH OF WAVERLEY ROAD 238 228 -10 -4% 0.7 Pass 285 286 1 0% 0.1 Pass 522 534 12 2% 0.5 Pass

NB - REDLAND GROVE, NORTH OF MERIDIAN ROAD 266 264 -2 -1% 0.1 Pass 237 237 0 0% 0.0 Pass 649 533 -116 -18% 4.8 Pass

NB - REDLAND ROAD SOUTH OF ZETLAND ROAD 100 123 24 24% 2.2 Pass 117 112 -4 -4% 0.4 Pass 225 364 139 62% 8.1 Fail

NB - COTHAM BROW NORTH OF ARLEY HILL 192 196 4 2% 0.3 Pass 237 122 -115 -48% 8.6 Fail 455 305 -151 -33% 7.7 Fail

NB - A38 CHELTENHAM ROAD NORTH OF ARLEY HILL 513 513 0 0% 0.0 Pass 490 489 -1 0% 0.1 Pass 589 592 3 1% 0.1 Pass

NB - St Andrews Road North of Bath Buildings 10 20 9 89% 2.4 Pass 23 23 0 1% 0.0 Pass 26 79 53 205% 7.3 Fail

NB - B4052 ASHLEY HILL NORTH OF FAIRFIELD ROAD 812 823 11 1% 0.4 Pass 610 613 3 0% 0.1 Pass 1054 1111 57 5% 1.7 Pass

3481 3521 40 1% 0.7 Pass 3253 3134 -119 -4% 2.1 Pass 4868 4854 -14 0% 0.2 Pass

East-West Railway Screenline Southbound

WB - A4176 CLIFTON DOWN WEST OF THE AVENUE 921 933 12 1% 0.4 Pass 643 644 1 0% 0.0 Pass 983 1026 43 4% 1.4 Pass

SB - A4018 WHITELADIES ROAD, NORTH OF COTHAM HILL 777 814 37 5% 1.3 Pass 716 718 1 0% 0.1 Pass 668 669 2 0% 0.1 Pass



SB - HAMPTON ROAD, NORTH OF WAVERLEY ROAD 516 492 -24 -5% 1.1 Pass 180 181 1 0% 0.1 Pass 267 263 -4 -1% 0.2 Pass

SB - REDLAND GROVE, NORTH OF MERIDIAN ROAD 784 613 -172 -22% 6.5 Fail 268 268 0 0% 0.0 Pass 344 351 7 2% 0.4 Pass

SB - REDLAND ROAD SOUTH OF ZETLAND ROAD 292 304 11 4% 0.6 Pass 144 144 1 1% 0.1 Pass 228 230 2 1% 0.2 Pass

SB - COTHAM BROW NORTH OF ARLEY HILL 571 572 1 0% 0.0 Pass 243 244 1 0% 0.0 Pass 294 295 1 0% 0.1 Pass

SB - A38 CHELTENHAM ROAD NORTH OF ARLEY HILL 628 627 -2 0% 0.1 Pass 565 564 -1 0% 0.0 Pass 541 539 -2 0% 0.1 Pass

SB - St Andrews Road North of Bath Buildings 7 109 102 1563% 13.5 Fail 39 40 1 1% 0.1 Pass 43 42 -1 -1% 0.1 Pass

SB - B4052 ASHLEY HILL NORTH OF FAIRFIELD ROAD 979 967 -12 -1% 0.4 Pass 592 599 7 1% 0.3 Pass 770 761 -9 -1% 0.3 Pass

5475 5430 -46 -1% 0.6 Pass 3390 3402 12 0% 0.2 Pass 4138 4177 39 1% 0.6 Pass


EB - Hambrook Lane 37 50 13 35% 2.0 Pass 85 74 -11 -13% 1.3 Pass 129 292 163 126% 11.2 Fail

EB - A4174 Avon Ring Road 2098 2008 -91 -4% 2.0 Pass 1640 1653 14 1% 0.3 Pass 2879 2685 -194 -7% 3.7 Pass

EB - A4174 Ring Road West of M32 J1 1096 1064 -32 -3% 1.0 Pass 1096 1107 10 1% 0.3 Pass 1979 2062 83 4% 1.8 Pass

EB - Filton Road 76 82 5 7% 0.6 Pass 97 105 8 8% 0.8 Pass 325 326 1 0% 0.1 Pass

SB - Stoke Lane 230 264 35 15% 2.2 Pass 375 383 8 2% 0.4 Pass 621 615 -6 -1% 0.2 Pass

NB - B4058 Stapleton Road 447 445 -2 0% 0.1 Pass 302 299 -2 -1% 0.1 Pass 405 381 -24 -6% 1.2 Pass

EB - A432 Muller Road 889 890 1 0% 0.0 Pass 788 781 -7 -1% 0.2 Pass 1093 1069 -24 -2% 0.7 Pass

4873 4802 -71 -1% 1.0 Pass 4383 4402 19 0% 0.3 Pass 7432 7430 -1 0% 0.0 Pass


WB - Hambrook Lane 619 628 9 2% 0.4 Pass 85 86 1 1% 0.1 Pass 93 134 40 43% 3.8 Pass

WB - A4174 Avon Ring Road 1888 1919 31 2% 0.7 Pass 1505 1529 25 2% 0.6 Pass 1733 1690 -43 -2% 1.0 Pass

WB - A4174 Ring Road West of M32 J1 1968 1785 -183 -9% 4.2 Pass 925 811 -114 -12% 3.9 Pass 749 759 11 1% 0.4 Pass



WB - Filton Road 214 218 4 2% 0.3 Pass 53 53 0 0% 0.0 Pass 55 55 -1 -1% 0.1 Pass

NB - Stoke Lane 1112 1089 -23 -2% 0.7 Pass 353 354 1 0% 0.0 Pass 242 223 -19 -8% 1.2 Pass

SB - B4058 Stapleton Road 463 481 18 4% 0.8 Pass 363 364 1 0% 0.1 Pass 421 398 -23 -5% 1.1 Pass

WB - A432 Muller Road 998 1009 11 1% 0.4 Pass 827 824 -3 0% 0.1 Pass 873 875 2 0% 0.1 Pass

7263 7129 -134 -2% 1.6 Pass 4110 4021 -89 -2% 1.4 Pass 4166 4133 -33 -1% 0.5 Pass

Southmead Frome Screenline Northbound

Northbound, MCC, 318, SF-35-1, B4056 Southmead Road 1056 1041 -15 -1% 0.5 Pass 696 743 47 7% 1.8 Pass 830 767 -63 -8% 2.2 Pass

NB - Filton Road 639 676 37 6% 1.4 Pass 571 571 0 0% 0.0 Pass 519 532 13 3% 0.6 Pass

NB - Filton Avenue 593 590 -4 -1% 0.1 Pass 397 397 0 0% 0.0 Pass 424 422 -2 -1% 0.1 Pass

NB - Stoke Lane 1112 1089 -23 -2% 0.7 Pass 353 354 1 0% 0.0 Pass 242 223 -19 -8% 1.2 Pass

NB - Frenchay Park Road 473 478 5 1% 0.2 Pass 300 301 1 0% 0.0 Pass 308 314 6 2% 0.3 Pass

3874 3875 0 0% 0.0 Pass 2317 2366 49 2% 1.0 Pass 2323 2259 -65 -3% 1.4 Pass

Southmead From Screenline Southbound

Southbound, MCC, 318, SF-35-1, B4056 Southmead Road 715 855 139 19% 5.0 Pass 656 704 48 7% 1.8 Pass 773 747 -26 -3% 0.9 Pass

SB - Filton Road 729 784 55 8% 2.0 Pass 627 632 5 1% 0.2 Pass 788 741 -47 -6% 1.7 Pass

SB - Filton Avenue 313 301 -11 -4% 0.7 Pass 311 301 -10 -3% 0.6 Pass 570 554 -16 -3% 0.7 Pass

SB - Stoke Lane 230 264 35 15% 2.2 Pass 375 383 8 2% 0.4 Pass 621 615 -6 -1% 0.2 Pass

SB - Frenchay Park Road 357 333 -25 -7% 1.3 Pass 316 313 -3 -1% 0.2 Pass 497 499 3 1% 0.1 Pass

2343 2537 193 8% 3.9 Pass 2286 2333 47 2% 1.0 Pass 3248 3156 -92 -3% 1.6 Pass

Stoke Brook Screenline Eastbound

A4174 Station Rd (w) from New Rd Junction - WB 1939 2134 195 10% 4.3 Pass 1208 1207 -2 0% 0.1 Pass 1251 1443 192 15% 5.2 Fail

Gypsy Patch Ln to Hatchet Rbt - EB 671 659 -12 -2% 0.5 Pass 727 635 -92 -13% 3.5 Pass 1047 833 -214 -20% 7.0 Fail



Orpheus Ave to Hatchet Rbt - SB 270 433 163 60% 8.7 Fail 291 404 114 39% 6.1 Fail 336 516 180 54% 8.7 Fail

EB - Baileys Court Road 242 242 0 0% 0.0 Pass 212 208 -4 -2% 0.3 Pass 435 434 0 0% 0.0 Pass

Southbound, ATC, 100, SB-52-4, Bradley Stoke Way (Lamp Post) 671 687 16 2% 0.6 Pass 483 495 12 3% 0.6 Pass 727 819 91 13% 3.3 Pass

SB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 379 145 -234 -62% 14.5 Fail 105 77 -27 -26% 2.8 Pass 212 108 -104 -49% 8.2 Fail

4172 4300 128 3% 2.0 Pass 3025 3027 1 0% 0.0 Pass 4008 4154 146 4% 2.3 Pass

Stoke Brook Screenline Westbound

A4174 Station Rd (w) to New Rd Junction - EB 1188 1233 45 4% 1.3 Pass 1154 1160 6 0% 0.2 Pass 1479 1510 31 2% 0.8 Pass

Gypsy Patch Ln from Hatchet Rbt - WB 1024 964 -60 -6% 1.9 Pass 735 720 -14 -2% 0.5 Pass 846 806 -40 -5% 1.4 Pass

Orpheus Ave from Hatchet Rbt - NB 295 291 -4 -1% 0.2 Pass 357 357 0 0% 0.0 Pass 700 715 15 2% 0.6 Pass

WB - Baileys Court Road 495 499 4 1% 0.2 Pass 198 198 0 0% 0.0 Pass 267 265 -2 -1% 0.1 Pass

Northbound, ATC, 100, SB-52-4, Bradley Stoke Way (Lamp Post) 644 554 -90 -14% 3.7 Pass 475 417 -58 -12% 2.7 Pass 770 853 83 11% 2.9 Pass

NB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 518 399 -119 -23% 5.6 Fail 117 117 0 0% 0.0 Pass 413 378 -35 -8% 1.7 Pass

4164 3940 -224 -5% 3.5 Pass 3035 2969 -67 -2% 1.2 Pass 4475 4526 52 1% 0.8 Pass

NFH Core Cordon Inbound

Bradley RSI - NON INT 1290 1311 21 2% 0.6 Pass 889 876 -13 -1% 0.4 Pass 1267 1297 30 2% 0.8 Pass

Towards Junction, MCC, 483, M4-1, Trench Lane 779 767 -12 -2% 0.4 Pass 113 134 21 19% 1.9 Pass 164 164 0 0% 0.0 Pass

WB - B4057 Winterbourne Road 1342 1421 79 6% 2.1 Pass 794 811 17 2% 0.6 Pass 1232 1226 -6 -1% 0.2 Pass

From Junction - Hatchet Road (S) 1145 1154 9 1% 0.3 Pass 563 570 7 1% 0.3 Pass 651 645 -6 -1% 0.3 Pass

A38 to Gypsy Patch Lane - EB 817 823 6 1% 0.2 Pass 658 659 1 0% 0.0 Pass 921 882 -39 -4% 1.3 Pass

Gloucester Rd (n) from A38 off/on slip Rbt - NB 335 277 -58 -17% 3.3 Pass 304 274 -30 -10% 1.8 Pass 594 631 37 6% 1.5 Pass

5708 5752 44 1% 0.6 Pass 3320 3323 3 0% 0.1 Pass 4829 4843 14 0% 0.2 Pass

NFH Core Cordon Outbound



Bradley RSI - INT 909 1148 240 26% 7.5 Fail 908 910 2 0% 0.1 Pass 1053 1030 -23 -2% 0.7 Pass

From Junction - Trench Lane 171 183 13 7% 1.0 Pass 120 120 0 0% 0.0 Pass 522 550 27 5% 1.2 Pass

EB - B4057 Winterbourne Road 959 967 8 1% 0.3 Pass 842 841 -1 0% 0.0 Pass 1229 1188 -40 -3% 1.2 Pass

Towards Junction - Hatchet Road (S) 570 524 -47 -8% 2.0 Pass 644 627 -17 -3% 0.7 Pass 1022 902 -120 -12% 3.9 Pass

Gypsy Patch Ln to A38 - WB 976 937 -39 -4% 1.3 Pass 669 667 -2 0% 0.1 Pass 923 918 -5 -1% 0.2 Pass

Gloucester Rd (n) to A38 off/on slip Rbt - SB 1059 871 -188 -18% 6.0 Fail 344 398 54 16% 2.8 Pass 430 378 -52 -12% 2.6 Pass

4644 4631 -12 0% 0.2 Pass 3527 3563 36 1% 0.6 Pass 5179 4966 -213 -4% 3.0 Pass

NFH RSI Screenline NB

A38 North of Filton Ave - NB 1366 1347 -19 -1% 0.5 Pass 1172 1241 69 6% 2.0 Pass 1710 1834 124 7% 3.0 Pass

NB - Hatchet Road 468 471 4 1% 0.2 Pass 628 613 -15 -2% 0.6 Pass 904 856 -48 -5% 1.6 Pass

NB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 495 519 24 5% 1.1 Pass 359 359 0 0% 0.0 Pass 664 626 -38 -6% 1.5 Pass

NB - Great Stoke Way 286 287 1 0% 0.1 Pass 206 203 -2 -1% 0.2 Pass 634 631 -3 -1% 0.1 Pass

2614 2624 10 0% 0.2 Pass 2365 2416 51 2% 1.0 Pass 3912 3947 35 1% 0.6 Pass

NFH RSI Screenline SB

A38 North of Filton Ave - SB 2116 2168 52 2% 1.1 Pass 1138 1141 3 0% 0.1 Pass 1472 1511 39 3% 1.0 Pass

SB - Hatchet Road 893 841 -51 -6% 1.7 Pass 590 590 -1 0% 0.0 Pass 586 584 -2 0% 0.1 Pass

SB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 196 212 16 8% 1.1 Pass 355 349 -6 -2% 0.3 Pass 262 273 11 4% 0.7 Pass

SB - Great Stoke Way 783 811 28 4% 1.0 Pass 214 214 0 0% 0.0 Pass 387 379 -8 -2% 0.4 Pass

3987 4032 45 1% 0.7 Pass 2298 2294 -4 0% 0.1 Pass 2707 2747 40 1% 0.8 Pass

A38 to M5 South Cribbs NB

A38 North of Filton Ave - NB 1366 1347 -19 -1% 0.5 Pass 1172 1241 69 6% 2.0 Pass 1710 1834 124 7% 3.0 Pass

Wyck Beck Rd - Station Rd Rbt - NB 1166 1190 24 2% 0.7 Pass 928 922 -6 -1% 0.2 Pass 1202 1197 -5 0% 0.1 Pass

Station Rd - Cribbs Causeway Rbt - NB 392 388 -4 -1% 0.2 Pass 298 300 1 0% 0.1 Pass 331 426 95 29% 4.9 Pass



EB - M5 J18-J17 4481 4507 26 1% 0.4 Pass 3130 3148 19 1% 0.3 Pass 3584 3820 235 7% 3.9 Pass

7405 7431 26 0% 0.3 Pass 5528 5611 83 2% 1.1 Pass 6827 7277 450 7% 5.4 Fail

A38 to M5 South Cribbs SB

A38 North of Filton Ave - SB 2116 2168 52 2% 1.1 Pass 1138 1141 3 0% 0.1 Pass 1472 1511 39 3% 1.0 Pass

Wyck Beck Rd - Station Rd Rbt - SB 1165 1322 157 14% 4.5 Pass 1132 1045 -87 -8% 2.6 Pass 1537 1442 -95 -6% 2.5 Pass

SB, M5, Junction 17 - 18a 3625 3524 -101 -3% 1.7 Pass 3295 3229 -66 -2% 1.1 Pass 4770 4689 -81 -2% 1.2 Pass

6906 7014 108 2% 1.3 Pass 5565 5416 -149 -3% 2.0 Pass 7779 7642 -137 -2% 1.6 Pass

Cribbs Causeway Cordon - Inbound

Highwood RSI - NON INT 499 485 -13 -3% 0.6 Pass 539 542 3 1% 0.1 Pass 485 469 -16 -3% 0.7 Pass

Lysander Rd from Cribbs/Lysander Rbt - EB 526 534 8 1% 0.3 Pass 760 767 7 1% 0.3 Pass 828 731 -97 -12% 3.5 Pass

Merlin RSI - NON INT 851 864 13 1% 0.4 Pass 794 839 45 6% 1.6 Pass 862 1069 208 24% 6.7 Fail

Hayes RSI - INT 394 569 175 44% 8.0 Fail 590 679 89 15% 3.5 Pass 1084 1201 117 11% 3.5 Pass

Highwood Rd (n) to Pegasus/Highwood Rbt - SB 789 608 -181 -23% 6.9 Fail 545 544 -1 0% 0.0 Pass 490 492 2 1% 0.1 Pass

3059 3060 0 0% 0.0 Pass 3228 3371 144 4% 2.5 Pass 3748 3962 214 6% 3.4 Pass

Cribbs Causeway Cordon - Outbound

Highwood RSI - INT 321 320 -2 -1% 0.1 Pass 709 647 -62 -9% 2.4 Pass 855 783 -72 -8% 2.5 Pass

Lysander Rd to Cribbs/Lysander Rbt - WB 460 458 -2 0% 0.1 Pass 714 738 24 3% 0.9 Pass 942 952 10 1% 0.3 Pass

Merlin RSI - INT 400 303 -96 -24% 5.1 Fail 589 678 89 15% 3.5 Pass 1054 1019 -34 -3% 1.1 Pass

Hayes RSI - NON INT 737 846 109 15% 3.9 Pass 452 537 85 19% 3.8 Pass 545 771 226 41% 8.8 Fail

Highwood Rd (n) from Pegasus/Highwood Rbt - NB 316 300 -16 -5% 0.9 Pass 518 516 -1 0% 0.1 Pass 726 508 -218 -30% 8.8 Fail

2234 2227 -7 0% 0.1 Pass 2982 3116 135 5% 2.4 Pass 4122 4034 -88 -2% 1.4 Pass



Appendix C. Individual Flow Calibration



ID Description


Count Model Diff % GEH GEH DMRB Count Model Diff % GEH GEH DMR

B Count Model Diff % GEH GEH

DMRB

1

SB - Hallen Road s/o Windsor Crescent, Hallen 228 231 3 1% 0 PASS PASS 134 134 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 182 185 3 2% 0 PASS PASS

NB - Hallen Road s/o Windsor Crescent, Hallen 225 227 2 1% 0 PASS PASS 172 173 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 366 371 5 1% 0 PASS PASS

2

EB - Highwood Lane east of Merlin Road 556 485 -71 -13% 3 PASS PASS 589 542 -47 -8% 2 PASS PASS 598 469 -129 -22% 6 Fail Fail

WB - Highwood Lane east of Merlin Road 249 268 18 7% 1 PASS PASS 422 432 10 2% 0 PASS PASS 605 627 22 4% 1 PASS PASS

3

From Junction - Trench Lane 171 183 13 7% 1 PASS PASS 120 120 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 522 550 27 5% 1 PASS PASS

Towards Junction, MCC, 483, M4-1, Trench Lane 779 767 -12 -2% 0 PASS PASS 113 134 21 19% 2 PASS PASS 164 164 0 0% 0 PASS PASS

4

SB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 379 145 -234 -62% 14 Fail Fail 105 77 -27 -26% 3 PASS PASS 212 108 -104 -49% 8 Fail Fail

NB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 518 399 -119 -23% 6 Fail Fail 117 117 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 413 378 -35 -8% 2 PASS PASS

5

EB - B4057 Beacon Lane w/o Church Lane, Winterbourne 699 699 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 529 541 11 2% 0 PASS PASS 923 745 -177 -19% 6 Fail Fail

WB - B4057 Beacon Lane w/o Church Lane, Winterbourne 1107 1099 -9 -1% 0 PASS PASS 528 539 11 2% 0 PASS PASS 696 698 2 0% 0 PASS PASS

6

EB - B4058 Bristol Road e/o B4427, Hambrook 347 332 -15 -4% 1 PASS PASS 313 314 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 595 586 -9 -1% 0 PASS PASS

WB - B4058 Bristol Road e/o B4427, Hambrook 679 703 24 3% 1 PASS PASS 297 298 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 443 455 12 3% 1 PASS PASS

7

From Junction - Badminton SB Road 1229 1231 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 582 635 53 9% 2 PASS PASS 796 828 33 4% 1 PASS PASS

Towards Junction, MCC, 505, M4-6, Badminton SB Road 882 797 -85 -10% 3 PASS PASS 578 648 70 12% 3 PASS PASS 883 885 1 0% 0 PASS PASS

8

NB Bromley Heath Road north of A4174 Avon Ring Road 49 102 53 109% 6 Fail PASS 25 25 0 -1% 0 PASS PASS 22 55 33 151% 5 Fail PASS

SB Bromley Heath Road north of A4174 Avon Ring Road 80 82 2 2% 0 PASS PASS 14 13 0 -2% 0 PASS PASS 66 45 -21 -32% 3 PASS PASS

9

EB - Bonnington Walk 259 265 6 2% 0 PASS PASS 192 194 2 1% 0 PASS PASS 257 263 6 2% 0 PASS PASS

WB - Bonnington Walk 201 187 -14 -7% 1 PASS PASS 143 143 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 240 240 0 0% 0 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

10

EB - Lockleaze Road 184 185 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 134 134 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 150 147 -3 -2% 0 PASS PASS

WB - Lockleaze Road 175 176 1 1% 0 PASS PASS 170 170 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 226 226 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS

11

SB - B4469 Muller Road 703 717 14 2% 1 PASS PASS 768 752 -17 -2% 1 PASS PASS 686 693 7 1% 0 PASS PASS

NB - B4469 Muller Road 973 994 21 2% 1 PASS PASS 838 834 -4 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1029 1001 -28 -3% 1 PASS PASS

12

SB - GLENFROME ROAD NORTH OF ST WERBURGHS PARK 414 449 34 8% 2 PASS PASS 353 356 3 1% 0 PASS PASS 426 444 18 4% 1 PASS PASS

NB - GLENFROME ROAD NORTH OF ST WERBURGHS PARK 417 415 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 414 414 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 577 566 -10 -2% 0 PASS PASS

13

EB - A4176 CLIFTON DOWN WEST OF THE AVENUE 819 828 9 1% 0 PASS PASS 582 581 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 646 649 3 1% 0 PASS PASS

WB - A4176 CLIFTON DOWN WEST OF THE AVENUE 921 933 12 1% 0 PASS PASS 643 644 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 983 1026 43 4% 1 PASS PASS

14

SB - A4018 WHITELADIES ROAD, NORTH OF COTHAM HILL 777 814 37 5% 1 PASS PASS 716 718 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 668 669 2 0% 0 PASS PASS

NB - A4018 WHITELADIES ROAD, NORTH OF COTHAM HILL 531 526 -5 -1% 0 PASS PASS 672 671 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 702 688 -15 -2% 1 PASS PASS

15

SB - HAMPTON ROAD, NORTH OF WAVERLEY ROAD 516 492 -24 -5% 1 PASS PASS 180 181 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 267 263 -4 -1% 0 PASS PASS

NB - HAMPTON ROAD, NORTH OF WAVERLEY ROAD 238 228 -10 -4% 1 PASS PASS 285 286 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 522 534 12 2% 1 PASS PASS

16

NB - REDLAND GROVE, NORTH OF MERIDIAN ROAD 266 264 -2 -1% 0 PASS PASS 237 237 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 649 533 -116 -18% 5 PASS Fail

SB - REDLAND GROVE, NORTH OF MERIDIAN ROAD 784 613 -172 -22% 6 Fail Fail 268 268 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 344 351 7 2% 0 PASS PASS

17

SB - REDLAND ROAD SOUTH OF ZETLAND ROAD 292 304 11 4% 1 PASS PASS 144 144 1 1% 0 PASS PASS 228 230 2 1% 0 PASS PASS

NB - REDLAND ROAD SOUTH OF ZETLAND ROAD 100 123 24 24% 2 PASS PASS 117 112 -4 -4% 0 PASS PASS 225 364 139 62% 8 Fail Fail

18 SB - COTHAM BROW NORTH OF ARLEY HILL 571 572 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 243 244 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 294 295 1 0% 0 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

NB - COTHAM BROW NORTH OF ARLEY HILL 192 196 4 2% 0 PASS PASS 237 122 -115 -48% 9 Fail Fail 455 305 -151 -33% 8 Fail Fail

19

SB - A38 CHELTENHAM ROAD NORTH OF ARLEY HILL 628 627 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS 565 564 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 541 539 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS

NB - A38 CHELTENHAM ROAD NORTH OF ARLEY HILL 513 513 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 490 489 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 589 592 3 1% 0 PASS PASS

20 SB - St Andrews Road North of Bath Buildings 7 109 102

1563% 13 Fail Fail 39 40 1 1% 0 PASS PASS 43 42 -1 -1% 0 PASS PASS

NB - St Andrews Road North of Bath Buildings 10 20 9 89% 2 PASS PASS 23 23 0 1% 0 PASS PASS 26 79 53 205% 7 Fail PASS

21

SB - B4052 ASHLEY HILL NORTH OF FAIRFIELD ROAD 979 967 -12 -1% 0 PASS PASS 592 599 7 1% 0 PASS PASS 770 761 -9 -1% 0 PASS PASS

NB - B4052 ASHLEY HILL NORTH OF FAIRFIELD ROAD 812 823 11 1% 0 PASS PASS 610 613 3 0% 0 PASS PASS 1054 1111 57 5% 2 PASS PASS

22

EB - Hambrook Lane 37 50 13 35% 2 PASS PASS 85 74 -11 -13% 1 PASS PASS 129 292 163 126% 11 Fail Fail

WB - Hambrook Lane 619 628 9 2% 0 PASS PASS 85 86 1 1% 0 PASS PASS 93 134 40 43% 4 PASS PASS

23

EB - A4174 Avon Ring Road 2098 2008 -91 -4% 2 PASS PASS 1640 1653 14 1% 0 PASS PASS 2879 2685 -194 -7% 4 PASS PASS

WB - A4174 Avon Ring Road 1888 1919 31 2% 1 PASS PASS 1505 1529 25 2% 1 PASS PASS 1733 1690 -43 -2% 1 PASS PASS

24

EB - Filton Road 76 82 5 7% 1 PASS PASS 97 105 8 8% 1 PASS PASS 325 326 1 0% 0 PASS PASS

WB - Filton Road 214 218 4 2% 0 PASS PASS 53 53 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 55 55 -1 -1% 0 PASS PASS

25

SB - Stoke Lane 230 264 35 15% 2 PASS PASS 375 383 8 2% 0 PASS PASS 621 615 -6 -1% 0 PASS PASS

NB - Stoke Lane 1112 1089 -23 -2% 1 PASS PASS 353 354 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 242 223 -19 -8% 1 PASS PASS

26

SB - B4058 Stapleton Road 463 481 18 4% 1 PASS PASS 363 364 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 421 398 -23 -5% 1 PASS PASS

NB - B4058 Stapleton Road 447 445 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS 302 299 -2 -1% 0 PASS PASS 405 381 -24 -6% 1 PASS PASS

27

EB - A432 Muller Road 889 890 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 788 781 -7 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1093 1069 -24 -2% 1 PASS PASS

WB - A432 Muller Road 998 1009 11 1% 0 PASS PASS 827 824 -3 0% 0 PASS PASS 873 875 2 0% 0 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

28

SB - Filton Road 729 784 55 8% 2 PASS PASS 627 632 5 1% 0 PASS PASS 788 741 -47 -6% 2 PASS PASS

NB - Filton Road 639 676 37 6% 1 PASS PASS 571 571 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 519 532 13 3% 1 PASS PASS

29

SB - Filton Avenue 313 301 -11 -4% 1 PASS PASS 311 301 -10 -3% 1 PASS PASS 570 554 -16 -3% 1 PASS PASS

NB - Filton Avenue 593 590 -4 -1% 0 PASS PASS 397 397 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 424 422 -2 -1% 0 PASS PASS

30

SB - Frenchay Park Road 357 333 -25 -7% 1 PASS PASS 316 313 -3 -1% 0 PASS PASS 497 499 3 1% 0 PASS PASS

NB - Frenchay Park Road 473 478 5 1% 0 PASS PASS 300 301 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 308 314 6 2% 0 PASS PASS

31

EB - Baileys Court Road 242 242 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 212 208 -4 -2% 0 PASS PASS 435 434 0 0% 0 PASS PASS

WB - Baileys Court Road 495 499 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 198 198 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 267 265 -2 -1% 0 PASS PASS

32

EB - B4057 Winterbourne Road 959 967 8 1% 0 PASS PASS 842 841 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 1229 1188 -40 -3% 1 PASS PASS

WB - B4057 Winterbourne Road 1342 1421 79 6% 2 PASS PASS 794 811 17 2% 1 PASS PASS 1232 1226 -6 -1% 0 PASS PASS

33

From Junction - Hatchet Road (S) 1145 1154 9 1% 0 PASS PASS 563 570 7 1% 0 PASS PASS 651 645 -6 -1% 0 PASS PASS

Towards Junction - Hatchet Road (S) 570 524 -47 -8% 2 PASS PASS 644 627 -17 -3% 1 PASS PASS 1022 902 -120 -12% 4 PASS PASS

34

SB - Hatchet Road 893 841 -51 -6% 2 PASS PASS 590 590 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 586 584 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS

NB - Hatchet Road 468 471 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 628 613 -15 -2% 1 PASS PASS 904 856 -48 -5% 2 PASS PASS

35

SB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 196 212 16 8% 1 PASS PASS 355 349 -6 -2% 0 PASS PASS 262 273 11 4% 1 PASS PASS

NB - B4427 Old Gloucester Road 495 519 24 5% 1 PASS PASS 359 359 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 664 626 -38 -6% 1 PASS PASS

36

SB - Great Stoke Way 783 811 28 4% 1 PASS PASS 214 214 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 387 379 -8 -2% 0 PASS PASS

NB - Great Stoke Way 286 287 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 206 203 -2 -1% 0 PASS PASS 634 631 -3 -1% 0 PASS PASS

37

SB - B4058 Bristol Road 296 293 -3 -1% 0 PASS PASS 246 246 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 433 444 11 3% 1 PASS PASS

NB - B4058 Bristol Road 601 587 -14 -2% 1 PASS PASS 250 250 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 418 388 -30 -7% 1 PASS PASS

38 SB - Badminton Road 787 797 10 1% 0 PASS PASS 588 612 24 4% 1 PASS PASS 842 841 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

NB - Badminton Road 1231 1006 -225 -18% 7 Fail Fail 578 592 15 3% 1 PASS PASS 697 726 30 4% 1 PASS PASS

39

EB - A4174 Avon Ring Road 1177 1203 26 2% 1 PASS PASS 1125 1124 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 1633 1668 35 2% 1 PASS PASS

WB - A4174 Avon Ring Road 935 1033 98 10% 3 PASS PASS 1058 1067 9 1% 0 PASS PASS 1172 1214 42 4% 1 PASS PASS

40

Towards Junction - Great Stoke Way (W) 675 819 143 21% 5 Fail Fail 636 635 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 609 596 -13 -2% 1 PASS PASS

SB - Great Stoke Way 682 1006 323 47% 11 Fail Fail 584 790 206 35% 8 Fail Fail 598 714 116 19% 5 PASS Fail

41

Towards Junction - Fox Den Road (S) 200 177 -23 -11% 2 PASS PASS 546 509 -37 -7% 2 PASS PASS 429 414 -15 -3% 1 PASS PASS

From Junction - Fox Den Road (S) 481 458 -24 -5% 1 PASS PASS 529 466 -62 -12% 3 PASS PASS 318 278 -40 -13% 2 PASS PASS

42

Towards Junction - AXA Car Park 39 51 12 31% 2 PASS PASS 54 53 -1 -1% 0 PASS PASS 255 249 -6 -2% 0 PASS PASS

From Junction - AXA Car Park 431 445 14 3% 1 PASS PASS 44 66 22 49% 3 PASS PASS 38 35 -3 -8% 1 PASS PASS

43

From Junction - Parkway Station Approach Road 191 211 19 10% 1 PASS PASS 162 220 58 36% 4 PASS PASS 314 318 3 1% 0 PASS PASS

Towards Junction - Parkway Station Approach Road 438 472 33 8% 2 PASS PASS 187 186 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 342 332 -10 -3% 1 PASS PASS

44

Towards Junction - Sandringham Road 145 140 -5 -3% 0 PASS PASS 54 55 1 2% 0 PASS PASS 41 40 -2 -4% 0 PASS PASS

From Junction - Sandringham Road 30 25 -5 -16% 1 PASS PASS 54 45 -9 -16% 1 PASS PASS 93 79 -14 -15% 2 PASS PASS

45

From Junction - Ratcliffe Drive 234 221 -13 -5% 1 PASS PASS 195 211 16 8% 1 PASS PASS 319 302 -17 -5% 1 PASS PASS

Towards Junction - Ratcliffe Drive 326 309 -17 -5% 1 PASS PASS 177 178 1 1% 0 PASS PASS 255 221 -34 -13% 2 PASS PASS

46

Towards Junction - Brook Way 423 405 -18 -4% 1 PASS PASS 330 331 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 492 428 -64 -13% 3 PASS PASS

From Junction - Brook Way 511 533 22 4% 1 PASS PASS 380 380 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 717 698 -18 -3% 1 PASS PASS

47

Towards Junction - Brook Way (N) 397 378 -19 -5% 1 PASS PASS 197 195 -3 -1% 0 PASS PASS 268 270 2 1% 0 PASS PASS

From Junction - Brook Way (N) 461 470 9 2% 0 PASS PASS 248 248 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 622 580 -42 -7% 2 PASS PASS

48

Towards Junction - Webbs Wood WB Road 313 313 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 115 115 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 151 151 0 0% 0 PASS PASS

From Junction - Webbs Wood WB Road 155 156 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 119 120 1 1% 0 PASS PASS 301 301 0 0% 0 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

49

Towards Junction - Baileys Court SWB Road 201 201 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 58 58 0 -1% 0 PASS PASS 64 64 1 1% 0 PASS PASS

From Junction - Baileys Court SWB Road 68 68 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 67 67 1 1% 0 PASS PASS 128 129 1 1% 0 PASS PASS

50

Towards Junction - Winterbourne Road EB Approach 430 427 -3 -1% 0 PASS PASS 474 478 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 645 622 -23 -4% 1 PASS PASS

From Junction - Winterbourne Road EB Approach 821 765 -55 -7% 2 PASS PASS 482 481 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 616 621 5 1% 0 PASS PASS

51

EB - A4174 Ring Road West of M32 J1 1096 1064 -32 -3% 1 PASS PASS 1096 1107 10 1% 0 PASS PASS 1979 2062 83 4% 2 PASS PASS

WB - A4174 Ring Road West of M32 J1 1968 1785 -183 -9% 4 PASS PASS 925 811 -114 -12% 4 PASS PASS 749 759 11 1% 0 PASS PASS

52

A38 to Gypsy Patch Lane - EB 817 823 6 1% 0 PASS PASS 658 659 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 921 882 -39 -4% 1 PASS PASS

Gypsy Patch Ln to A38 - WB 976 937 -39 -4% 1 PASS PASS 669 667 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS 923 918 -5 -1% 0 PASS PASS

53

A38 North of Filton Ave - SB 2116 2168 52 2% 1 PASS PASS 1138 1141 3 0% 0 PASS PASS 1472 1511 39 3% 1 PASS PASS

A38 North of Filton Ave - NB 1366 1347 -19 -1% 1 PASS PASS 1172 1241 69 6% 2 PASS PASS 1710 1834 124 7% 3 PASS PASS

54

Gypsy Patch Ln to Hatchet Rbt - EB 671 659 -12 -2% 0 PASS PASS 727 635 -92 -13% 4 PASS PASS 1047 833 -214 -20% 7 Fail Fail

Gypsy Patch Ln from Hatchet Rbt - WB 1024 964 -60 -6% 2 PASS PASS 735 720 -14 -2% 1 PASS PASS 846 806 -40 -5% 1 PASS PASS

55

Knole Ln west of Charlton Rd - WB 485 409 -76 -16% 4 PASS PASS 355 350 -5 -1% 0 PASS PASS 449 451 2 0% 0 PASS PASS

Knole Ln west of Charlton Rd - EB 488 415 -73 -15% 3 PASS PASS 410 394 -16 -4% 1 PASS PASS 596 435 -161 -27% 7 Fail Fail

56

Charlton Rd to Knole Ln - NB 149 136 -13 -9% 1 PASS PASS 78 77 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 98 108 10 11% 1 PASS PASS

Charlton Rd from Knole Ln - SB 97 91 -6 -6% 1 PASS PASS 66 66 1 1% 0 PASS PASS 169 167 -2 -1% 0 PASS PASS

57

A38 (N) offslip - SB 535 449 -86 -16% 4 PASS PASS 439 438 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 547 517 -30 -5% 1 PASS PASS

A38 (S) offslip - NB 504 508 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 457 421 -36 -8% 2 PASS PASS 804 498 -306 -38% 12 Fail Fail

A38 (S) onslip - SB 755 556 -199 -26% 8 Fail Fail 382 310 -72 -19% 4 PASS PASS 514 390 -124 -24% 6 Fail Fail

58

Royal Mail Depot Exit - EB 22 23 1 7% 0 PASS PASS 36 56 20 55% 3 PASS PASS 23 124 101 441% 12 Fail Fail

Royal Mail Depot Entrance - WB 41 115 74 182% 8 Fail PASS 35 98 62 176% 8 Fail PASS 62 53 -9 -14% 1 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

59

Filton Ave to A38 - WB 342 321 -21 -6% 1 PASS PASS 228 231 3 1% 0 PASS PASS 304 319 15 5% 1 PASS PASS

Filton Ave from A38 - EB 521 581 60 11% 3 PASS PASS 236 331 95 40% 6 Fail PASS 286 439 153 54% 8 Fail Fail

60

Wyck Beck Rd - Station Rd Rbt - NB 1166 1190 24 2% 1 PASS PASS 928 922 -6 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1202 1197 -5 0% 0 PASS PASS

Wyck Beck Rd - Station Rd Rbt - SB 1165 1322 157 14% 4 PASS PASS 1132 1045 -87 -8% 3 PASS PASS 1537 1442 -95 -6% 2 PASS PASS

61 Station Rd - Cribbs Causeway Rbt - NB 392 388 -4 -1% 0 PASS PASS 298 300 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 331 426 95 29% 5 PASS PASS

62

Winterbourne Rd to Hatchet Rbt - WB 873 765 -108 -12% 4 PASS PASS 535 481 -54 -10% 2 PASS PASS 673 681 8 1% 0 PASS PASS

Winterbourne Rd from Hatchet Rbt - EB 378 427 49 13% 2 PASS PASS 477 478 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 583 622 39 7% 2 PASS PASS

63

Orpheus Ave to Hatchet Rbt - SB 270 433 163 60% 9 Fail Fail 291 404 114 39% 6 Fail Fail 336 516 180 54% 9 Fail Fail

Orpheus Ave from Hatchet Rbt - NB 295 291 -4 -1% 0 PASS PASS 357 357 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 700 715 15 2% 1 PASS PASS

64

A38 (N) to Hayes Way Signals - SB 1604 1850 246 15% 6 Fail Fail 1033 1031 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS 1182 1173 -9 -1% 0 PASS PASS

A38 (N) from Hayes Way Signals - NB 927 927 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 863 865 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 1194 1356 162 14% 5 PASS PASS

65

A38 (S) to Hayes Way Signals - NB 847 836 -11 -1% 0 PASS PASS 831 836 6 1% 0 PASS PASS 1433 1380 -53 -4% 1 PASS PASS

A38 (S) from Hayes Way Signals - SB 1602 1682 80 5% 2 PASS PASS 966 867 -99 -10% 3 PASS PASS 1204 1121 -83 -7% 2 PASS PASS

66

A38 off slip - SB 793 777 -16 -2% 1 PASS PASS 525 510 -14 -3% 1 PASS PASS 571 380 -191 -34% 9 Fail Fail

A38 (N) onslip - NB 424 424 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 526 516 -9 -2% 0 PASS PASS 800 732 -68 -8% 2 PASS PASS

67

Pear Tree Road to Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - SB 399 341 -58 -14% 3 PASS PASS 228 140 -87 -38% 6 Fail PASS 458 329 -129 -28% 7 Fail Fail

Pear Tree Road from Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - NB 238 387 149 63% 8 Fail Fail 249 94 -154 -62% 12 Fail Fail 230 148 -82 -35% 6 Fail PASS

68

Bradley Stoke Way (e) to Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - WB 357 367 10 3% 1 PASS PASS 560 401 -159 -28% 7 Fail Fail 661 664 3 0% 0 PASS PASS

Bradley Stoke Way (e) from Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - EB 556 553 -3 -1% 0 PASS PASS 544 439 -105 -19% 5 PASS Fail 827 797 -30 -4% 1 PASS PASS

69 Bradley Stoke Way (W) to Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt -

WB 500 518 18 4% 1 PASS PASS 613 611 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 955 994 39 4% 1 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

Bradley Stoke Way (W) from Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - EB 896 925 29 3% 1 PASS PASS 665 664 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 905 802 -103 -11% 4 PASS PASS

70

New Road to A4174 Station Rd - SB 1188 1233 45 4% 1 PASS PASS 1154 1160 6 0% 0 PASS PASS 1479 1510 31 2% 1 PASS PASS

New Road from A4174 Station Rd - NB 1674 1736 62 4% 2 PASS PASS 1132 1023 -108 -10% 3 PASS PASS 1495 1526 31 2% 1 PASS PASS

71

A4174 Station Rd (e) to New Rd Junction - WB 294 39 -255 -87% 20 Fail Fail 169 6 -163 -96% 17 Fail Fail 465 316 -149 -32% 8 Fail Fail

A4174 Station Rd (e) from New Rd Junction - EB 559 428 -131 -23% 6 Fail Fail 245 189 -56 -23% 4 PASS PASS 221 232 11 5% 1 PASS PASS

72

A4174 Station Rd (w) to New Rd Junction - EB 1188 1233 45 4% 1 PASS PASS 1154 1160 6 0% 0 PASS PASS 1479 1510 31 2% 1 PASS PASS

A4174 Station Rd (w) from New Rd Junction - WB 1939 2134 195 10% 4 PASS PASS 1208 1207 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS 1251 1443 192 15% 5 Fail Fail

73

Pen Park Rd to Monks/Pen Park Rbt - SB 575 586 11 2% 0 PASS PASS 572 572 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 649 690 41 6% 2 PASS PASS

Pen Park Rd from Monks/Pen Park Rbt - NB 520 505 -15 -3% 1 PASS PASS 599 599 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 743 749 6 1% 0 PASS PASS

74

Southmead Rd (e) to Monks/Pen Park Rbt - WB 743 759 16 2% 1 PASS PASS 659 656 -3 0% 0 PASS PASS 717 728 11 2% 0 PASS PASS

Southmead Rd (e) from Monks/Pen Park Rbt - EB 1041 1032 -9 -1% 0 PASS PASS 698 696 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 804 805 1 0% 0 PASS PASS

75

Monks Park Ave to Monks/Pen Park Rbt - NB 495 472 -23 -5% 1 PASS PASS 413 413 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 545 520 -25 -5% 1 PASS PASS

Monks Park Ave from Monks/Pen Park Rbt - SB 388 342 -46 -12% 2 PASS PASS 391 393 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 398 401 3 1% 0 PASS PASS

76

Southmead Rd (w) to Monks/Pen Park Rbt - EB 696 645 -51 -7% 2 PASS PASS 530 529 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 603 566 -37 -6% 2 PASS PASS

Southmead Rd (w) from Monks/Pen Park Rbt - WB 560 566 6 1% 0 PASS PASS 486 483 -3 -1% 0 PASS PASS 569 552 -17 -3% 1 PASS PASS

77

Southmead Rd between Pen Park and Monks Rbts - EB 977 873 -104 -11% 3 PASS PASS 743 743 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 907 864 -43 -5% 1 PASS PASS

Southmead Rd between Pen Park and Monks Rbts - WB 734 663 -71 -10% 3 PASS PASS 677 676 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 726 731 5 1% 0 PASS PASS

78

Wyck Beck Rd to Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - SB 1313 1322 9 1% 0 PASS PASS 1032 1045 13 1% 0 PASS PASS 1367 1442 75 5% 2 PASS PASS

Wyck Beck Rd from Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - NB 1252 1341 89 7% 2 PASS PASS 950 1010 60 6% 2 PASS PASS 1290 1547 257 20% 7 Fail Fail

79 Passage Rd to Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - NB 933 920 -13 -1% 0 PASS PASS 723 722 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 894 902 8 1% 0 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

Passage Rd from Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - SB 939 938 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 649 653 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 912 907 -5 -1% 0 PASS PASS

80

Lysander Rd to Cribbs/Lysander Rbt - WB 460 458 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS 714 738 24 3% 1 PASS PASS 942 952 10 1% 0 PASS PASS

Lysander Rd from Cribbs/Lysander Rbt - EB 526 534 8 1% 0 PASS PASS 760 767 7 1% 0 PASS PASS 828 731 -97 -12% 3 PASS PASS

81

Cribbs Causeway (s) to Cribbs/Lysander Rbt - NB 1424 1563 139 10% 4 PASS PASS 1246 1258 13 1% 0 PASS PASS 1705 1699 -6 0% 0 PASS PASS

Cribbs Causeway (s) from Cribbs/Lysander Rbt - SB 1567 1381 -186 -12% 5 PASS PASS 1160 1162 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 1561 1600 39 3% 1 PASS PASS

82

Lysander Rd (e) to Lysander/Merlin Rd Rbt - SB 149 153 4 3% 0 PASS PASS 713 721 8 1% 0 PASS PASS 695 546 -149 -21% 6 Fail Fail

Lysander Rd (e) from Lysander/Merlin Rd Rbt - NB 410 435 25 6% 1 PASS PASS 749 652 -97 -13% 4 PASS PASS 613 617 4 1% 0 PASS PASS

83 Merlin Rd (s) Filter Lane 322 329 7 2% 0 PASS PASS 375 375 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 513 477 -36 -7% 2 PASS PASS

84 The Mall to Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - WB 4 72 68

1710% 11 Fail PASS 447 447 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 477 478 1 0% 0 PASS PASS

The Mall from Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - EB 66 135 69 105% 7 Fail PASS 695 700 5 1% 0 PASS PASS 502 492 -10 -2% 0 PASS PASS

85

Jupiter Rd to Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - SWB 319 308 -11 -3% 1 PASS PASS 441 441 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 555 551 -4 -1% 0 PASS PASS

Jupiter Rd from Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - NEB 118 157 39 33% 3 PASS PASS 113 156 43 38% 4 PASS PASS 114 112 -2 -2% 0 PASS PASS

86

The Mall to Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - EB 27 17 -10 -39% 2 PASS PASS 113 118 4 4% 0 PASS PASS 214 177 -37 -17% 3 PASS PASS

The Mall from Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - WB 180 166 -14 -8% 1 PASS PASS 132 92 -40 -30% 4 PASS PASS 131 62 -69 -52% 7 Fail PASS

87 Pegasus Rd (n) from Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - NWB 205 226 21 10% 1 PASS PASS 356 356 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 477 473 -4 -1% 0 PASS PASS

88

Gloucester Rd (e) to A38 (n) onslip - R 249 280 31 13% 2 PASS PASS 94 94 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 87 135 48 55% 5 PASS PASS

Gloucester Rd/A38 flyover - WB 875 876 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 549 549 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 691 719 28 4% 1 PASS PASS

Gloucester Rd/A38 flyover - EB 613 615 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 553 553 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 781 756 -25 -3% 1 PASS PASS

89 A38/Highwood Rd Rbt to A38 (n) onslip - L 264 349 85 32% 5 PASS PASS 272 272 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 186 235 49 26% 3 PASS PASS

90 Gloucester Rd to A38/Highwood Rd Rbt - SWB 628 596 -32 -5% 1 PASS PASS 454 455 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 665 584 -81 -12% 3 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

Gloucester Rd from A38/Highwood Rd Rbt - NEB 878 963 85 10% 3 PASS PASS 824 825 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 1053 991 -62 -6% 2 PASS PASS

91 A38 offslip to A38/Highwood Rd Rbt - NB 264 266 2 1% 0 PASS PASS 364 364 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 554 675 121 22% 5 PASS Fail

92

Highwood Rd to A38/Highwood Rd Rbt - EB 394 391 -3 -1% 0 PASS PASS 470 468 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS 549 520 -29 -5% 1 PASS PASS

Highwood Rd from A38/Highwood Rd Rbt - WB 601 583 -18 -3% 1 PASS PASS 471 471 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 625 664 39 6% 2 PASS PASS

93

Coniston Rd to A38/Highwood Rd Rbt - SB 446 566 120 27% 5 Fail Fail 287 290 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 318 371 53 17% 3 PASS PASS

Coniston Rd from A38/Highwood Rd Rbt - NB 253 272 19 8% 1 PASS PASS 281 281 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 407 495 88 22% 4 PASS PASS

94

A38 sb offslip 229 286 57 25% 4 PASS PASS 306 306 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 390 624 234 60% 10 Fail Fail

A38 sb onslip 643 620 -23 -4% 1 PASS PASS 344 433 89 26% 5 PASS PASS 307 409 102 33% 5 Fail Fail

95

A38 nr Highwood Rd - NB 1333 1290 -43 -3% 1 PASS PASS 950 868 -82 -9% 3 PASS PASS 987 1051 64 7% 2 PASS PASS

A38 nr Highwood Rd - SB 1370 1228 -142 -10% 4 PASS PASS 588 598 10 2% 0 PASS PASS 763 764 1 0% 0 PASS PASS

96

Southmead Rd (n) to Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - WB 1357 1283 -74 -5% 2 PASS PASS 764 749 -14 -2% 1 PASS PASS 778 795 17 2% 1 PASS PASS

Southmead Rd (n) from Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - EB 920 1079 159 17% 5 Fail Fail 752 752 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 1136 1140 4 0% 0 PASS PASS

97

Southmead Rd (s) to Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - NB 962 1036 74 8% 2 PASS PASS 616 615 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 807 813 6 1% 0 PASS PASS

Southmead Rd (s) from Mall/Pegasus Rd Rbt - SB 1003 844 -159 -16% 5 Fail Fail 677 660 -16 -2% 1 PASS PASS 827 841 14 2% 0 PASS PASS

98

Highwood Rd (n) to Pegasus/Highwood Rbt - SB 789 608 -181 -23% 7 Fail Fail 545 544 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 490 492 2 1% 0 PASS PASS

Highwood Rd (n) from Pegasus/Highwood Rbt - NB 316 300 -16 -5% 1 PASS PASS 518 516 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 726 508 -218 -30% 9 Fail Fail

99

Merlin Rd to San Andreas Rbt - EB 738 786 48 7% 2 PASS PASS 570 572 3 1% 0 PASS PASS 763 815 52 7% 2 PASS PASS

Merlin Rd from San Andreas Rbt - WB 877 668 -209 -24% 8 Fail Fail 674 662 -11 -2% 0 PASS PASS 1375 1268 -107 -8% 3 PASS PASS

100

Aztec RSI - INT 222 271 49 22% 3 PASS PASS 537 538 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 1647 1626 -21 -1% 1 PASS PASS

Aztec RSI - NON INT 2014 2017 3 0% 0 PASS PASS 431 427 -4 -1% 0 PASS PASS 250 235 -15 -6% 1 PASS PASS

101 Bradley RSI - INT 909 1148 240 26% 7 Fail Fail 908 910 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 1053 1030 -23 -2% 1 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

Bradley RSI - NON INT 1290 1311 21 2% 1 PASS PASS 889 876 -13 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1267 1297 30 2% 1 PASS PASS

102

Hayes RSI - INT 394 569 175 44% 8 Fail Fail 590 679 89 15% 4 PASS PASS 1084 1201 117 11% 3 PASS PASS

Hayes RSI - NON INT 737 846 109 15% 4 PASS PASS 452 537 85 19% 4 PASS PASS 545 771 226 41% 9 Fail Fail

103

Highwood RSI - INT 321 320 -2 -1% 0 PASS PASS 709 647 -62 -9% 2 PASS PASS 855 783 -72 -8% 3 PASS PASS

Highwood RSI - NON INT 499 485 -13 -3% 1 PASS PASS 539 542 3 1% 0 PASS PASS 485 469 -16 -3% 1 PASS PASS

104

Lysander RSI - INT 570 534 -37 -6% 2 PASS PASS 787 767 -20 -3% 1 PASS PASS 779 731 -47 -6% 2 PASS PASS

Lysander RSI - NON INT 519 504 -14 -3% 1 PASS PASS 791 766 -25 -3% 1 PASS PASS 934 914 -20 -2% 1 PASS PASS

105

Merlin RSI - INT 400 303 -96 -24% 5 Fail PASS 589 678 89 15% 4 PASS PASS 1054 1019 -34 -3% 1 PASS PASS

Merlin RSI - NON INT 851 864 13 1% 0 PASS PASS 794 839 45 6% 2 PASS PASS 862 1069 208 24% 7 Fail Fail

106

Pegasus Rd to Pegasus/Highwood Rbt - SB 135 134 -1 -1% 0 PASS PASS 382 287 -95 -25% 5 Fail PASS 510 385 -125 -25% 6 Fail Fail

Pegasus Rd from Pegasus/Highwood Rbt - NB 357 363 6 2% 0 PASS PASS 429 332 -97 -23% 5 PASS PASS 333 304 -29 -9% 2 PASS PASS

107

Highwood Rd (s) to Pegasus/Highwood Rbt - NB 307 320 13 4% 1 PASS PASS 310 312 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 413 294 -119 -29% 6 Fail Fail

Highwood Rd (s) from Pegasus/Highwood Rbt - SB 558 392 -166 -30% 8 Fail Fail 290 294 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 354 360 6 2% 0 PASS PASS

108

Merlin Rd (s) from Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - SB 992 786 -206 -21% 7 Fail Fail 603 572 -31 -5% 1 PASS PASS 806 815 9 1% 0 PASS PASS

Merlin Rd (s) to Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - NB 746 668 -78 -10% 3 PASS PASS 667 662 -5 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1280 1268 -12 -1% 0 PASS PASS

109

A4018 Cribbs Causeway s/o Hollywood Lane - NB 1129 1140 11 1% 0 PASS PASS 657 659 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 1258 1264 5 0% 0 PASS PASS

A4018 Cribbs Causeway s/o Hollywood Lane - SB 1039 1032 -7 -1% 0 PASS PASS 596 592 -5 -1% 0 PASS PASS 955 945 -9 -1% 0 PASS PASS

110

A38 Gloucester Road s/o M5 J16 - NB 1346 1432 86 6% 2 PASS PASS 1331 1315 -15 -1% 0 PASS PASS 2743 2737 -6 0% 0 PASS PASS

A38 Gloucester Road s/o M5 J16 - SB 3648 3621 -27 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1179 1180 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 1644 1687 43 3% 1 PASS PASS

111 NB, M32, TMU 7054/1 on M32 NB between J1 and

M4 3219 3217 -2 0% 0 PASS PASS 2324 2314 -10 0% 0 PASS PASS 4044 4096 52 1% 1 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

SB, M32, TMU 7055/1 on M32 SB between M4 and J1 4102 4057 -45 -1% 1 PASS PASS 2327 2343 17 1% 0 PASS PASS 3633 3634 1 0% 0 PASS PASS

112

NB, M32, J2 - 1 3055 3370 315 10% 6 Fail PASS 2071 2068 -3 0% 0 PASS PASS 3601 3596 -5 0% 0 PASS PASS

SB - M32 J1-2 3385 3376 -9 0% 0 PASS PASS 2277 2269 -7 0% 0 PASS PASS 3374 3458 84 3% 1 PASS PASS

113

EB, M4, TMU site 5319/2 on M4 EB within J19 2414 2415 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 1986 1986 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 2275 2343 68 3% 1 PASS PASS

WB, M4, TMU site 5318/2 on M4 WB within J19 2253 2215 -38 -2% 1 PASS PASS 1908 1893 -14 -1% 0 PASS PASS 2476 2470 -6 0% 0 PASS PASS

114

WB, M4, TMU site 5318/1 on M4 J19 WB exit 1573 1494 -79 -5% 2 PASS PASS 717 716 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 1053 1044 -10 -1% 0 PASS PASS

EB, M4, TMU site 5319/1 on M4 J19 EB exit 2457 2564 107 4% 2 PASS PASS 1630 1628 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 2584 2624 40 2% 1 PASS PASS

115

WB, M4, TMU site 5277/1 on link road from M4 WB J20 to M5 J15 3067 3079 12 0% 0 PASS PASS 2290 2282 -8 0% 0 PASS PASS 3142 3173 31 1% 1 PASS PASS

EB, M4, TMU site 5280/1 on link road from M4 J20 EB to M5 J15 1220 1223 3 0% 0 PASS PASS 673 673 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 880 845 -35 -4% 1 PASS PASS

116 WB, M4, Junction 18 - 19 3735 3709 -26 -1% 0 PASS PASS 2610 2610 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 3527 3513 -14 0% 0 PASS PASS

117 EB - M5 J18-J17 4481 4507 26 1% 0 PASS PASS 3130 3148 19 1% 0 PASS PASS 3584 3820 235 7% 4 PASS PASS

118 SB, M5, TMU site 5270/1 on M5 J18 SB exit 911 912 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 571 571 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 684 710 26 4% 1 PASS PASS

119 NB, M5, TMU site 5271/1 on M5 J17 NB exit 1056 1070 14 1% 0 PASS PASS 663 651 -12 -2% 0 PASS PASS 786 805 19 2% 1 PASS PASS

120

SB, M5, TMU site 5272/2 on M5 SB within J17 2843 2923 80 3% 1 PASS PASS 2499 2501 2 0% 0 PASS PASS 3229 3263 34 1% 1 PASS PASS

SB, M5, TMU site 5272/1 on M5 J17 SB exit 933 921 -12 -1% 0 PASS PASS 958 958 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 1258 1198 -60 -5% 2 PASS PASS

121

NB, M5, TMU site 5273/2 on M5 NB within J16 2805 2808 3 0% 0 PASS PASS 2830 2833 3 0% 0 PASS PASS 3462 3466 4 0% 0 PASS PASS

SB, M5, TMU site 5274/1 on M5 SB within J16 3119 3135 16 1% 0 PASS PASS 2842 2745 -97 -3% 2 PASS PASS 3383 3321 -62 -2% 1 PASS PASS

122 NB, M5, TMU site 5273/1 on M5 J16 NB exit 1316 1402 86 7% 2 PASS PASS 651 637 -13 -2% 1 PASS PASS 1014 1027 13 1% 0 PASS PASS

123 NB, M5, TMU site 5376/3 on link road from M5 J16 NB

to M4 J20 2140 2129 -11 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1902 1905 3 0% 0 PASS PASS 3133 3143 10 0% 0 PASS PASS

124 WB, M4, TMU site 5277/2 on M4 WB within J20 1284 1275 -9 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1191 1202 11 1% 0 PASS PASS 1813 1810 -3 0% 0 PASS PASS



ID Description




DMRB

125

NB, M5, Junction 17 - 16 4176 4212 36 1% 1 PASS PASS 3534 3470 -64 -2% 1 PASS PASS 4535 4493 -42 -1% 1 PASS PASS

SB, M5, Junction 17 - 18a 3625 3524 -101 -3% 2 PASS PASS 3295 3229 -66 -2% 1 PASS PASS 4770 4689 -81 -2% 1 PASS PASS

126

SB, M5, Junction 16 Onslip 629 708 79 13% 3 PASS PASS 582 714 132 23% 5 Fail Fail 1031 1140 109 11% 3 PASS PASS

NB, M5, Junction 16 Onslip 831 825 -6 -1% 0 PASS PASS 741 743 1 0% 0 PASS PASS 1806 1826 20 1% 0 PASS PASS

127 SB, M5, Junction 17 Onslip 663 598 -65 -10% 3 PASS PASS 729 729 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 1437 1426 -11 -1% 0 PASS PASS

128

To Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - EB 38 37 -1 -3% 0 PASS PASS 125 77 -48 -38% 5 PASS PASS 238 238 0 0% 0 PASS PASS

From Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - WB 56 52 -4 -7% 1 PASS PASS 152 77 -74 -49% 7 Fail PASS 356 357 1 0% 0 PASS PASS

129

Golf Course to Rbt - SB 107 103 -4 -3% 0 PASS PASS 218 218 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 449 451 2 0% 0 PASS PASS

Golf Course from Rbt - NB 503 498 -5 -1% 0 PASS PASS 169 169 0 0% 0 PASS PASS 71 78 7 10% 1 PASS PASS



Appendix D. Individual Flow Validation



ID Description


Count Model Diff % GEH GEH DMRB Count Model Diff % GEH GEH DMRB Count Model Diff % GEH GEH DMR

B

1

A38 South of Filton Ave - NB 1093 1025 -68 -6% 2 PASS PASS 992 1010 18 2% 1 PASS PASS 1448 1515 67 5% 2 PASS PASS

A38 South of Filton Ave - SB 1664 1585 -79 -5% 2 PASS PASS 950 810 -140 -15% 5 PASS PASS 1228 1071 -157 -13% 5 PASS PASS

2

Cribbs Causeway - Station Rd Rbt - SB 1191 1240 49 4% 1 PASS PASS 1132 998 -134 -12% 4 PASS PASS 1554 1356 -198 -13% 5 Fail PASS

Cribbs Causeway - Station Rd Rbt - NB 1558 1496 -62 -4% 2 PASS PASS 1216 1175 -41 -3% 1 PASS PASS 1524 1539 15 1% 0 PASS PASS

3

Brook Way to Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - NB 513 693 180 35% 7 Fail Fail 352 329 -23 -7% 1 PASS PASS 493 403 -90 -18% 4 PASS PASS

Brook Way from Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - SB 312 447 135 43% 7 Fail Fail 313 312 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 520 553 33 6% 1 PASS PASS

4

Crow Ln to Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - EB 365 434 69 19% 3 PASS PASS 322 368 46 14% 2 PASS PASS 384 442 58 15% 3 PASS PASS

Crow Ln from Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - WB 455 355 -100 -22% 5 PASS PASS 478 513 35 7% 2 PASS PASS 545 436 -109 -20% 5 PASS Fail

5

Merlin Rd (n) to Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - SB 1073 951 -122 -11% 4 PASS PASS 1283 1275 -8 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1380 1202 -178 -13% 5 PASS PASS

Merlin Rd (n) from Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - NB 747 755 8 1% 0 PASS PASS 1071 1111 40 4% 1 PASS PASS 1711 1520 -191 -11% 5 PASS PASS

6

A38 Gloucester Road s/o Shellmor Ave, Patchway - NB 1366 1244 -122 -9% 3 PASS PASS 1004 894 -110 -11% 4 PASS PASS 1032 1315 283 27% 8 Fail Fail

A38 Gloucester Road s/o Shellmor Ave, Patchway - SB 1524 1517 -7 0% 0 PASS PASS 918 903 -15 -2% 0 PASS PASS 1311 1388 78 6% 2 PASS PASS

7

WB, M4, Junction 19 - 20 4528 4356 -172 -4% 3 PASS PASS 3635 3484 -151 -4% 3 PASS PASS 5166 4984 -182 -4% 3 PASS PASS

EB, M4, Junction 20 - 19 4688 4980 292 6% 4 PASS PASS 3553 3614 62 2% 1 PASS PASS 4871 4971 100 2% 1 PASS PASS

8

From Junction, MCC, 500, CC-S3, Brierly Furlong (S) 769 815 46 6% 2 PASS PASS 541 386 -155 -29% 7 Fail Fail 574 455 -119 -21% 5 Fail Fail

Towards Junction, MCC, 501, HS1, Brierly Furlong 469 386 -83 -18% 4 PASS PASS 631 502 -129 -20% 5 Fail Fail 581 674 93 16% 4 PASS PASS

9

Towards Junction, MCC, 487, CC-I8, Bradley Stoke Way NWB 538 551 13 2% 1 PASS PASS 485 422 -63 -13% 3 PASS PASS 963 862 -101 -11% 3 PASS PASS

From Junction, MCC, 487, CC-I8, Bradley Stoke Way NWB 1011 899 -111 -11% 4 PASS PASS 441 502 61 14% 3 PASS PASS 597 661 63 11% 3 PASS PASS

10 From Junction, MCC, 486, CC-I7, Webbs Wood EB

Road 242 394 152 63% 9 Fail Fail 144 176 32 22% 3 PASS PASS 270 314 44 16% 3 PASS PASS



ID Description



B

Towards Junction, MCC, 486, CC-I7, Webbs Wood EB Road 252 281 29 12% 2 PASS PASS 156 161 5 3% 0 PASS PASS 274 414 140 51% 8 Fail Fail

11

From Junction, MCC, 498, CC-I10, Hatchet Road (S) 845 851 7 1% 0 PASS PASS 538 547 9 2% 0 PASS PASS 651 764 113 17% 4 PASS Fail

Towards Junction, MCC, 498, CC-I10, Hatchet Road (S) 544 474 -69 -13% 3 PASS PASS 618 604 -15 -2% 1 PASS PASS 917 998 81 9% 3 PASS PASS

12

Towards Junction, MCC, 494, CC-2, B4057 Winterbourne Road (E) 1528 1620 92 6% 2 PASS PASS 905 898 -7 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1450 1326 -125 -9% 3 PASS PASS

From Junction, MCC, 494, CC-2, B4057 Winterbourne Road (E) 903 912 8 1% 0 PASS PASS 870 889 19 2% 1 PASS PASS 1296 1018 -278 -21% 8 Fail Fail

13

Knole Ln east of Charlton Rd - EB 561 514 -47 -8% 2 PASS PASS 380 427 47 13% 2 PASS PASS 491 559 68 14% 3 PASS PASS

Knole Ln east of Charlton Rd - WB 512 475 -37 -7% 2 PASS PASS 423 460 37 9% 2 PASS PASS 709 602 -107 -15% 4 PASS PASS

14

Gloucester Rd (n) from A38 off/on slip Rbt - NB 335 277 -58 -17% 3 PASS PASS 304 274 -30 -10% 2 PASS PASS 594 631 37 6% 1 PASS PASS

Gloucester Rd (n) to A38 off/on slip Rbt - SB 1059 871 -188 -18% 6 Fail Fail 344 398 54 16% 3 PASS PASS 430 378 -52 -12% 3 PASS PASS

15

Hatchet Rd to Hatchet Rbt - NB 600 588 -12 -2% 1 PASS PASS 561 501 -60 -11% 3 PASS PASS 740 807 67 9% 2 PASS PASS

Hatchet Rd from Hatchet Rbt - SB 717 763 46 6% 2 PASS PASS 546 467 -79 -14% 3 PASS PASS 667 695 28 4% 1 PASS PASS

16

Bowsland Way to Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - SB 348 533 185 53% 9 Fail Fail 181 159 -22 -12% 2 PASS PASS 252 225 -27 -11% 2 PASS PASS

Bowsland Way from Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - NB 115 139 24 21% 2 PASS PASS 162 131 -31 -19% 3 PASS PASS 337 315 -22 -6% 1 PASS PASS

17

Knole Ln to Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - WB 642 518 -124 -19% 5 Fail Fail 517 525 8 2% 0 PASS PASS 708 681 -27 -4% 1 PASS PASS

Knole Ln from Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - EB 606 560 -46 -8% 2 PASS PASS 517 484 -33 -6% 1 PASS PASS 606 583 -23 -4% 1 PASS PASS

18

Lysander Rd (w) to Lysander/Merlin Rd Rbt - NB 521 534 13 2% 1 PASS PASS 747 767 20 3% 1 PASS PASS 769 731 -38 -5% 1 PASS PASS

Lysander Rd (w) from Lysander/Merlin Rd Rbt - SB 178 174 -4 -2% 0 PASS PASS 387 391 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 387 437 50 13% 2 PASS PASS

19

Southbound, MCC, 318, SF-35-1, B4056 Southmead Road 715 855 139 19% 5 PASS Fail 656 704 48 7% 2 PASS PASS 773 747 -26 -3% 1 PASS PASS

Northbound, MCC, 318, SF-35-1, B4056 Southmead Road 1056 1041 -15 -1% 0 PASS PASS 696 743 47 7% 2 PASS PASS 830 767 -63 -8% 2 PASS PASS



ID Description



B

20

Southbound, ATC, 100, SB-52-4, Bradley Stoke Way (Lamp Post) 671 687 16 2% 1 PASS PASS 483 495 12 3% 1 PASS PASS 727 819 91 13% 3 PASS PASS

Northbound, ATC, 100, SB-52-4, Bradley Stoke Way (Lamp Post) 644 554 -90 -14% 4 PASS PASS 475 417 -58 -12% 3 PASS PASS 770 853 83 11% 3 PASS PASS

21

A38 South of Filton Ave - NB 1093 1025 -68 -6% 2 PASS PASS 992 1010 18 2% 1 PASS PASS 1448 1515 67 5% 2 PASS PASS

A38 South of Filton Ave - SB 1664 1585 -79 -5% 2 PASS PASS 950 810 -140 -15% 5 PASS PASS 1228 1071 -157 -13% 5 PASS PASS

22

Cribbs Causeway - Station Rd Rbt - SB 1191 1240 49 4% 1 PASS PASS 1132 998 -134 -12% 4 PASS PASS 1554 1356 -198 -13% 5 Fail PASS

Cribbs Causeway - Station Rd Rbt - NB 1558 1496 -62 -4% 2 PASS PASS 1216 1175 -41 -3% 1 PASS PASS 1524 1539 15 1% 0 PASS PASS

23

Brook Way to Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - NB 513 693 180 35% 7 Fail Fail 352 329 -23 -7% 1 PASS PASS 493 403 -90 -18% 4 PASS PASS

Brook Way from Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - SB 312 447 135 43% 7 Fail Fail 313 312 -1 0% 0 PASS PASS 520 553 33 6% 1 PASS PASS

24

Crow Ln to Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - EB 365 434 69 19% 3 PASS PASS 322 368 46 14% 2 PASS PASS 384 442 58 15% 3 PASS PASS

Crow Ln from Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - WB 455 355 -100 -22% 5 PASS PASS 478 513 35 7% 2 PASS PASS 545 436 -109 -20% 5 PASS Fail

25

Merlin Rd (n) to Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - SB 1073 951 -122 -11% 4 PASS PASS 1283 1275 -8 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1380 1202 -178 -13% 5 PASS PASS

Merlin Rd (n) from Mall/Merlin Rd Rbt - NB 747 755 8 1% 0 PASS PASS 1071 1111 40 4% 1 PASS PASS 1711 1520 -191 -11% 5 PASS PASS

26

A38 Gloucester Road s/o Shellmor Ave, Patchway - NB 1366 1244 -122 -9% 3 PASS PASS 1004 894 -110 -11% 4 PASS PASS 1032 1315 283 27% 8 Fail Fail

A38 Gloucester Road s/o Shellmor Ave, Patchway - SB 1524 1517 -7 0% 0 PASS PASS 918 903 -15 -2% 0 PASS PASS 1311 1388 78 6% 2 PASS PASS

27

WB, M4, Junction 19 - 20 4528 4356 -172 -4% 3 PASS PASS 3635 3484 -151 -4% 3 PASS PASS 5166 4984 -182 -4% 3 PASS PASS

EB, M4, Junction 20 - 19 4688 4980 292 6% 4 PASS PASS 3553 3614 62 2% 1 PASS PASS 4871 4971 100 2% 1 PASS PASS

28

From Junction, MCC, 500, CC-S3, Brierly Furlong (S) 769 815 46 6% 2 PASS PASS 541 386 -155 -29% 7 Fail Fail 574 455 -119 -21% 5 Fail Fail

Towards Junction, MCC, 501, HS1, Brierly Furlong 469 386 -83 -18% 4 PASS PASS 631 502 -129 -20% 5 Fail Fail 581 674 93 16% 4 PASS PASS

29 Towards Junction, MCC, 487, CC-I8, Bradley Stoke

Way NWB 538 551 13 2% 1 PASS PASS 485 422 -63 -13% 3 PASS PASS 963 862 -101 -11% 3 PASS PASS



ID Description



B

From Junction, MCC, 487, CC-I8, Bradley Stoke Way NWB 1011 899 -111 -11% 4 PASS PASS 441 502 61 14% 3 PASS PASS 597 661 63 11% 3 PASS PASS

30

From Junction, MCC, 486, CC-I7, Webbs Wood EB Road 242 394 152 63% 9 Fail Fail 144 176 32 22% 3 PASS PASS 270 314 44 16% 3 PASS PASS

Towards Junction, MCC, 486, CC-I7, Webbs Wood EB Road 252 281 29 12% 2 PASS PASS 156 161 5 3% 0 PASS PASS 274 414 140 51% 8 Fail Fail

31

From Junction, MCC, 498, CC-I10, Hatchet Road (S) 845 851 7 1% 0 PASS PASS 538 547 9 2% 0 PASS PASS 651 764 113 17% 4 PASS Fail

Towards Junction, MCC, 498, CC-I10, Hatchet Road (S) 544 474 -69 -13% 3 PASS PASS 618 604 -15 -2% 1 PASS PASS 917 998 81 9% 3 PASS PASS

32

Towards Junction, MCC, 494, CC-2, B4057 Winterbourne Road (E) 1528 1620 92 6% 2 PASS PASS 905 898 -7 -1% 0 PASS PASS 1450 1326 -125 -9% 3 PASS PASS

From Junction, MCC, 494, CC-2, B4057 Winterbourne Road (E) 903 912 8 1% 0 PASS PASS 870 889 19 2% 1 PASS PASS 1296 1018 -278 -21% 8 Fail Fail

33

Knole Ln east of Charlton Rd - EB 561 514 -47 -8% 2 PASS PASS 380 427 47 13% 2 PASS PASS 491 559 68 14% 3 PASS PASS

Knole Ln east of Charlton Rd - WB 512 475 -37 -7% 2 PASS PASS 423 460 37 9% 2 PASS PASS 709 602 -107 -15% 4 PASS PASS

34

Gloucester Rd (n) from A38 off/on slip Rbt - NB 335 277 -58 -17% 3 PASS PASS 304 274 -30 -10% 2 PASS PASS 594 631 37 6% 1 PASS PASS

Gloucester Rd (n) to A38 off/on slip Rbt - SB 1059 871 -188 -18% 6 Fail Fail 344 398 54 16% 3 PASS PASS 430 378 -52 -12% 3 PASS PASS

35

Hatchet Rd to Hatchet Rbt - NB 600 588 -12 -2% 1 PASS PASS 561 501 -60 -11% 3 PASS PASS 740 807 67 9% 2 PASS PASS

Hatchet Rd from Hatchet Rbt - SB 717 763 46 6% 2 PASS PASS 546 467 -79 -14% 3 PASS PASS 667 695 28 4% 1 PASS PASS

36

Bowsland Way to Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - SB 348 533 185 53% 9 Fail Fail 181 159 -22 -12% 2 PASS PASS 252 225 -27 -11% 2 PASS PASS

Bowsland Way from Bradley Stoke/Brook Rbt - NB 115 139 24 21% 2 PASS PASS 162 131 -31 -19% 3 PASS PASS 337 315 -22 -6% 1 PASS PASS

37

Knole Ln to Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - WB 642 518 -124 -19% 5 Fail Fail 517 525 8 2% 0 PASS PASS 708 681 -27 -4% 1 PASS PASS

Knole Ln from Wyck Beck/Knole Ln Rbt - EB 606 560 -46 -8% 2 PASS PASS 517 484 -33 -6% 1 PASS PASS 606 583 -23 -4% 1 PASS PASS

38

Lysander Rd (w) to Lysander/Merlin Rd Rbt - NB 521 534 13 2% 1 PASS PASS 747 767 20 3% 1 PASS PASS 769 731 -38 -5% 1 PASS PASS

Lysander Rd (w) from Lysander/Merlin Rd Rbt - SB 178 174 -4 -2% 0 PASS PASS 387 391 4 1% 0 PASS PASS 387 437 50 13% 2 PASS PASS



ID Description



B

39

Southbound, MCC, 318, SF-35-1, B4056 Southmead Road 715 855 139 19% 5 PASS Fail 656 704 48 7% 2 PASS PASS 773 747 -26 -3% 1 PASS PASS

Northbound, MCC, 318, SF-35-1, B4056 Southmead Road 1056 1041 -15 -1% 0 PASS PASS 696 743 47 7% 2 PASS PASS 830 767 -63 -8% 2 PASS PASS

40

Southbound, ATC, 100, SB-52-4, Bradley Stoke Way 671 687 16 2% 1 PASS PASS 483 495 12 3% 1 PASS PASS 727 819 91 13% 3 PASS PASS

Northbound, ATC, 100, SB-52-4, Bradley Stoke Way 644 554 -90 -14% 4 PASS PASS 475 417 -58 -12% 3 PASS PASS 770 853 83 11% 3 PASS PASS



Appendix E. Journey Time Validation

Route A – AM Peak – Westbound



Route A – AM Peak – Eastbound

Route B – AM Peak – Northbound



Route B – AM Peak – Southbound

Route C – AM Peak – Northbound



Route C – AM Peak - Southbound

Route D – AM Peak – Clockwise



Route D – AM Peak – Anti-clockwise

Route E – AM Peak – Southbound



Route E– AM Peak – Northbound

Route F– AM Peak – Northbound



Route F– AM Peak – Southbound

Route A – Inter-Peak – Westbound



Route A – Inter-Peak – Eastbound

Route B – Inter-Peak – Northbound



Route B – Inter-Peak – Southbound

Route C – Inter-Peak – Northbound



Route C – Inter-Peak - Southbound

Route D – Inter-Peak – Clockwise



Route D – Inter-Peak – Anti-clockwise

Route E – Inter-Peak – Southbound



Route E– Inter-Peak – Northbound

Route F– Inter-Peak – Northbound



Route F– Inter-Peak – Southbound

Route A – PM Peak – Westbound



Route A – PM Peak – Eastbound

Route B – PM Peak – Northbound



Route B – PM Peak – Southbound

Route C – PM Peak – Northbound



Route C – PM Peak – Southbound

Route D – PM Peak – Clockwise



Route D – PM Peak – Anti-clockwise

Route E – PM Peak – Southbound



Route E – PM Peak – Northbound

Route F – PM Peak – Northbound



Route F – PM Peak – Southbound



Appendix F. Sector Analysis



F.1. AM Peak Prior Matrix Estimation

Prior

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 447 411 184 0 1 4 620 82 85 4 26 663 16 112 175 16 189

Bedminster 431 262 524 3 2 26 518 172 74 11 44 609 31 233 165 13 40

Bristol CC 125 191 2193 36 56 80 365 2578 446 55 278 573 92 378 660 44 134

Hambrook/Bromley Heath 7 2 76 315 178 132 27 851 20 83 1077 71 108 26 203 434 96

Stoke Gifford 0 5 50 79 345 433 9 504 110 452 128 50 60 47 172 141 104

Patchway 2 10 140 82 616 1274 56 185 179 799 115 30 289 83 266 398 12

Southville 855 595 560 1 5 25 1368 424 201 14 14 711 71 228 47 20 118

Lockleaze/Henleaze 190 186 3652 452 1272 419 256 9677 2505 633 1975 778 609 539 985 373 314

West Bristol 39 178 526 36 485 645 269 2201 4445 785 82 27 414 1111 1177 342 47

Filton 14 13 132 80 696 815 27 1064 490 1369 177 29 245 147 405 210 67

Kingswood 45 58 1487 903 301 334 181 1801 93 109 9268 1489 761 217 861 442 1462

Brislington 722 251 1290 84 116 115 797 1217 80 95 740 4358 250 502 756 155 938

South Gloucester 21 55 223 309 382 782 41 480 440 473 766 267 2605 268 1628 921 468

Bath & NE Somerset 83 181 1052 41 173 430 762 1087 1132 226 124 184 173 3909 2938 137 180

Rest of UK 303 100 1084 326 1057 762 216 1055 1087 887 971 511 1838 2891 5847 438 788

South Gloucester near AOI 3 5 69 226 463 405 25 449 92 381 275 41 518 32 335 397 65

North Somerset 253 40 423 51 202 105 167 92 68 62 547 1260 345 198 1255 140 1170



F.2. AM Peak Post Matrix Estimation

Post

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 447 411 184 0 1 4 620 82 86 3 26 663 18 112 171 15 189

Bedminster 431 262 524 3 3 27 518 170 74 7 44 609 32 233 146 16 40

Bristol CC 125 191 2193 32 64 72 365 2657 399 67 277 573 85 378 562 41 134


Stoke Gifford 0 7 45 76 368 331 9 380 62 467 118 49 81 33 186 141 79

Patchway 2 10 122 64 667 1096 37 200 171 808 95 37 287 97 261 442 12

Southville 855 595 560 1 4 25 1368 421 201 8 14 711 71 228 46 21 118


West Bristol 39 178 450 35 251 482 269 2240 4466 584 104 29 330 1122 1217 298 51

Filton 14 12 116 102 548 558 32 996 650 1773 171 28 295 176 494 240 56

Kingswood 45 60 1493 900 387 377 181 1825 105 137 9268 1489 756 227 822 356 1462

Brislington 722 251 1290 83 120 110 797 1252 79 92 740 4358 227 502 673 86 938


Bath & NE Somerset 83 181 1052 48 123 450 762 1080 1143 282 126 184 176 3909 3308 144 180

Rest of UK 309 99 1126 343 1116 810 220 1076 1253 961 1001 564 1822 3101 6670 423 866


North Somerset 253 40 423 51 173 75 167 92 67 45 547 1260 343 198 1178 98 1170



F.3. AM Peak Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation

Difference

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 2 0 -4 0 0

Bedminster 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0 -4 0 0 2 0 -19 2 0

Bristol CC 0 0 0 -3 8 -9 0 79 -48 12 -1 0 -8 0 -98 -3 0

Hambrook/Bromley Heath 0 -1 -14 -12 -27 29 9 -42 -4 -4 -4 -4 10 -1 61 -61 0

Stoke Gifford 0 1 -5 -3 23 -102 0 -124 -49 15 -11 -1 21 -14 13 0 -25

Patchway 0 0 -18 -18 51 -178 -20 15 -8 9 -20 7 -2 14 -5 44 -1

Southville 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0 -6 0 0 0 0 -1 2 0

Lockleaze/Henleaze -3 1 -252 -8 -6 11 4 203 -106 102 -17 49 -15 -11 -1 -8 26

West Bristol 0 0 -76 -1 -234 -164 0 40 22 -201 22 2 -84 11 40 -45 4

Filton 0 -1 -17 22 -148 -257 5 -68 160 404 -6 -2 50 29 89 30 -11

Kingswood 0 1 6 -2 85 43 0 24 11 28 0 0 -5 10 -40 -86 0

Brislington 0 0 0 -1 4 -4 0 35 -1 -3 0 0 -24 0 -83 -69 0

South Gloucester 0 1 -3 1 -5 -73 -2 52 1 7 45 18 -3 48 10 -7 6

Bath & NE Somerset 0 0 0 7 -50 20 0 -7 11 56 2 0 3 0 371 7 0

Rest of UK 6 -1 42 17 59 48 5 20 167 74 30 53 -16 210 823 -14 78

South Gloucester near AOI 0 -1 -17 0 -2 -36 -5 -20 43 177 7 -4 2 -2 10 23 0

North Somerset 0 0 0 0 -29 -30 0 -1 -1 -17 0 0 -2 0 -77 -42 0



F.4. AM Peak GEH Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation

GEH

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0

Bedminster 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 0.6 0.0

Bristol CC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 3.9 0.5 0.0

Hambrook/Bromley Heath 0.1 0.5 1.7 0.7 2.1 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 4.0 3.0 0.0

Stoke Gifford 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 1.2 5.2 0.1 5.9 5.3 0.7 0.9 0.1 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.0 2.6

Patchway 0.1 0.0 1.6 2.1 2.0 5.2 2.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 1.9 1.2 0.1 1.5 0.3 2.1 0.2

Southville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0

Lockleaze/Henleaze 0.2 0.1 4.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 2.1 2.1 3.9 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.4

West Bristol 0.1 0.0 3.4 0.2 12.2 6.9 0.0 0.8 0.3 7.7 2.3 0.3 4.3 0.3 1.2 2.5 0.6

Filton 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.3 5.9 9.8 0.9 2.1 6.7 10.2 0.4 0.3 3.1 2.3 4.2 2.0 1.4

Kingswood 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.6 2.3 0.0 0.6 1.2 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 4.3 0.0

Brislington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 3.1 6.3 0.0

South Gloucester 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.7 0.4 2.3 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 2.8 0.2 0.2 0.3

Bath & NE Somerset 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.1 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 3.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.6 0.6 0.0

Rest of UK 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.9 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.6 4.9 2.4 0.9 2.3 0.4 3.8 10.4 0.7 2.7

South Gloucester near AOI 0.2 0.4 2.2 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.0 0.9 4.1 8.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.0

North Somerset 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 3.9 0.0



F.5. Inter-Peak Prior Matrix Estimation

Prior

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 381 308 103 1 1 1 525 92 82 10 149 661 19 102 58 4 154

Bedminster 469 483 426 0 7 5 636 153 91 11 30 490 16 257 93 5 27

Bristol CC 142 283 2465 67 46 38 313 3185 202 100 740 941 137 511 655 50 166


Stoke Gifford 1 13 48 99 552 375 1 342 57 732 286 151 89 58 114 86 23

Patchway 9 9 59 65 325 387 21 228 153 630 145 27 294 61 402 182 22

Southville 616 637 316 9 3 5 1531 198 225 34 167 439 25 497 176 30 65


West Bristol 44 31 487 27 108 122 223 1611 3517 551 148 66 415 327 1059 146 86

Filton 9 9 122 118 308 448 34 772 679 1476 242 41 353 310 531 240 99

Kingswood 73 84 594 764 221 121 150 1576 134 204 8839 658 747 224 418 121 888

Brislington 609 291 1037 76 211 18 472 762 99 62 811 4391 163 370 409 34 776


Bath & NE Somerset 22 386 456 19 82 72 279 444 466 316 150 385 143 3119 2848 41 190

Rest of UK 61 131 471 214 114 306 192 862 1122 453 579 828 1142 2149 6053 212 691


North Somerset 74 12 202 61 23 13 38 197 134 88 724 989 274 226 703 32 802



F.6. Inter-Peak Post Matrix Estimation

Post

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 381 308 103 1 1 0 525 91 82 11 148 661 18 102 58 3 154

Bedminster 469 483 426 0 6 3 636 151 91 9 30 490 13 257 86 4 27

Bristol CC 142 283 2465 60 49 27 313 3109 198 88 729 941 105 511 558 36 166


Stoke Gifford 1 11 40 98 573 333 1 315 48 677 284 144 84 42 117 76 22

Patchway 7 9 55 119 289 490 24 253 100 601 126 22 257 56 334 145 18

Southville 616 637 316 8 2 6 1531 195 224 38 164 439 21 497 167 28 65


West Bristol 43 30 489 24 107 133 221 1588 3534 712 132 63 427 330 1200 152 85

Filton 7 6 85 96 336 509 33 674 804 1990 220 35 484 387 722 295 97

Kingswood 73 84 596 763 220 114 150 1566 105 186 8839 658 736 230 399 106 888

Brislington 609 291 1037 74 204 9 472 742 97 45 810 4391 147 370 343 26 776


Bath & NE Somerset 22 386 456 17 53 66 279 438 463 365 148 385 144 3119 2941 40 190

Rest of UK 61 125 474 174 118 286 181 821 1302 490 550 819 1150 2367 6499 223 687


North Somerset 74 12 202 60 27 9 38 193 134 92 724 989 271 227 653 28 802



F.7. Inter-Peak Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation

Difference

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0

Bedminster 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 0 -4 0 -7 -1 0

Bristol CC 0 0 0 -6 4 -11 0 -76 -4 -11 -10 0 -32 0 -97 -14 0

Hambrook/Bromley Heath 0 0 -2 1 -1 -3 -2 1 -5 -21 0 0 -3 4 30 -2 0

Stoke Gifford 0 -2 -8 -1 20 -42 0 -27 -9 -54 -3 -7 -4 -16 3 -9 -1

Patchway -2 0 -4 54 -36 103 3 25 -54 -30 -19 -5 -37 -5 -68 -37 -4

Southville 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -2 -1 4 -3 0 -5 0 -9 -2 0

Lockleaze/Henleaze -2 -1 -22 3 10 15 -23 16 -91 -59 11 -36 40 -20 20 2 -3

West Bristol -1 0 2 -3 -1 12 -2 -22 17 161 -16 -2 12 4 141 7 -1

Filton -2 -3 -37 -23 28 60 -1 -98 125 514 -22 -6 130 76 190 55 -2

Kingswood 0 0 1 -1 -1 -6 0 -10 -30 -18 0 0 -12 5 -18 -15 0

Brislington 0 0 0 -2 -7 -9 0 -20 -2 -17 -1 0 -16 0 -66 -8 0

South Gloucester 0 -4 -10 -7 -12 3 3 -42 -35 33 -17 -4 -1 7 13 0 0

Bath & NE Somerset 0 0 0 -2 -30 -7 0 -6 -2 49 -2 0 1 0 93 -2 0

Rest of UK 0 -7 3 -41 4 -20 -11 -41 180 37 -29 -9 8 218 445 11 -4

South Gloucester near AOI -1 -2 -9 -16 -8 -42 -1 -16 -20 119 -10 -3 3 9 -3 9 0

North Somerset 0 0 0 0 4 -5 0 -4 -1 4 0 0 -3 1 -50 -4 0



F.8. Inter-Peak GEH Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation

GEH

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0

Bedminster 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0

Bristol CC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 2.0 0.0 1.4 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.9 0.0 3.9 2.2 0.0


Stoke Gifford 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.8 2.3 0.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 2.2 0.3 1.0 0.2

Patchway 0.8 0.0 0.5 5.7 2.0 4.9 0.6 1.6 4.8 1.2 1.6 0.9 2.2 0.6 3.5 2.9 0.9

Southville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0


West Bristol 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 6.4 1.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 4.2 0.5 0.1

Filton 0.7 1.0 3.6 2.2 1.6 2.8 0.2 3.6 4.6 12.3 1.4 1.0 6.4 4.1 7.6 3.4 0.2

Kingswood 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 2.7 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.0

Brislington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.4 0.0 0.7 0.2 2.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 3.4 1.4 0.0


Bath & NE Somerset 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.2 0.0

Rest of UK 0.0 0.6 0.2 2.9 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.4 5.2 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.2 4.6 5.6 0.8 0.2


North Somerset 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.9 0.7 0.0



F.9. PM Peak Prior Matrix Estimation

Prior

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 426 223 122 26 0 4 690 138 38 12 354 770 46 118 195 6 331

Bedminster 414 259 294 3 4 10 550 202 49 21 62 438 22 169 133 12 52

Bristol CC 358 582 1717 72 124 136 253 3613 625 179 982 1018 289 1517 1141 78 461


Stoke Gifford 0 6 145 242 345 829 6 919 136 404 410 208 368 151 542 297 197

Patchway 4 108 54 86 445 684 8 293 435 704 202 32 682 305 849 434 73

Southville 456 352 423 114 6 18 1353 274 93 26 187 700 83 640 258 10 90


West Bristol 134 186 537 88 87 210 280 1862 3138 935 150 94 476 542 984 200 48

Filton 5 37 178 149 305 583 18 564 683 1061 255 66 550 348 607 588 89

Kingswood 83 62 559 673 57 144 76 1962 144 223 9399 678 713 115 418 185 695

Brislington 570 368 782 137 33 45 700 630 88 74 1788 3899 242 347 593 46 1304


Bath & NE Somerset 58 981 360 85 73 110 249 904 847 289 169 347 271 3450 2285 60 206

Rest of UK 134 150 489 119 346 234 201 985 1049 451 1012 654 1328 2472 6650 347 764


North Somerset 135 68 88 98 30 31 88 240 65 84 1130 1066 336 351 969 73 900



F.10. PM Peak Post Matrix Estimation

Post

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 426 223 122 25 0 6 690 138 36 14 353 770 46 118 193 9 331

Bedminster 414 259 294 2 5 6 550 194 50 22 60 438 22 169 130 9 52

Bristol CC 358 582 1717 63 130 129 253 3714 540 126 964 1018 290 1517 1115 107 456


Stoke Gifford 0 7 48 236 386 782 2 771 178 452 367 211 290 215 664 187 194

Patchway 2 119 63 67 403 948 5 351 180 560 172 41 529 207 797 439 56

Southville 456 352 423 160 7 12 1353 267 114 34 184 700 93 640 279 12 90


West Bristol 134 186 481 79 76 153 279 1863 3077 968 97 95 464 598 1392 223 43

Filton 1 39 155 128 298 677 29 594 852 1728 197 79 533 619 842 636 110

Kingswood 83 62 559 671 64 193 76 1842 135 202 9399 678 730 124 423 212 695

Brislington 570 368 782 131 40 37 700 629 80 66 1788 3899 259 347 574 50 1304


Bath & NE Somerset 58 981 360 68 52 84 249 891 812 203 142 347 290 3450 2826 47 207

Rest of UK 146 160 516 147 372 181 205 934 875 530 1013 707 1372 2674 6875 355 754


North Somerset 135 68 88 98 33 18 88 251 38 72 1130 1066 339 352 953 74 900



F.11. PM Peak Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation

Difference

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0 -1 3 -1 0 0 0 -2 3 0

Bedminster 0 0 0 0 1 -4 0 -8 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 0

Bristol CC 0 0 0 -9 5 -7 0 101 -85 -53 -18 0 2 0 -26 29 -5

Hambrook/Bromley Heath 0 0 0 -2 1 63 1 0 -8 -3 -1 1 17 7 33 60 1

Stoke Gifford 0 0 -98 -5 41 -47 -4 -148 43 48 -43 3 -78 64 122 -110 -3

Patchway -1 11 9 -19 -42 264 -3 58 -256 -144 -29 9 -154 -99 -52 5 -16

Southville 0 0 0 46 1 -6 0 -7 21 8 -3 0 10 0 21 1 0

Lockleaze/Henleaze -7 -2 63 -17 26 14 -18 -129 55 -114 -149 5 -42 -12 -20 -72 11

West Bristol 0 0 -57 -9 -11 -58 -2 1 -61 33 -54 1 -12 56 407 23 -5

Filton -3 2 -23 -22 -6 94 12 30 168 667 -58 13 -17 271 234 48 21

Kingswood 0 0 1 -1 7 49 0 -120 -9 -21 0 0 17 8 6 27 0

Brislington 0 0 0 -5 6 -9 0 -1 -8 -8 -1 0 17 0 -19 4 0

South Gloucester 0 2 7 10 2 -34 3 33 -180 16 37 27 -1 26 10 2 -1

Bath & NE Somerset 0 0 0 -16 -21 -25 0 -13 -34 -85 -27 0 18 0 541 -14 0

Rest of UK 11 10 27 29 26 -53 4 -51 -174 79 1 54 44 202 225 8 -9

South Gloucester near AOI 0 0 -9 65 6 -55 1 -37 -7 65 36 12 5 41 81 8 0

North Somerset 0 0 0 0 3 -13 0 11 -27 -11 0 0 3 1 -15 2 0



F.12. PM Peak GEH Difference – Prior vs Post Matrix Estimation

GEH

Hen

gro

ve

Pa

rk

Be

dm

inste

r

Bri

sto

l C

C

Ham

bro

ok/B

rom

ley

Hea

th

Sto

ke

Giffo

rd

Pa

tch

way

So

uth

vill

e

Lo

ckle

aze

/He

nle

aze

We

st

Bristo

l

Filt

on

Kin

gsw

oo

d

Bri

slin

gto

n

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r

Ba

th &

NE

Som

ers

et

Rest

of U

K

So

uth

Glo

uceste

r n

ear

AO

I

Nort

h S

om

ers

et

Hengrove Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.0

Bedminster 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0

Bristol CC 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.7 3.5 4.3 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 3.0 0.2


Stoke Gifford 0.2 0.1 9.9 0.3 2.2 1.7 2.2 5.1 3.4 2.3 2.2 0.2 4.3 4.7 5.0 7.0 0.2

Patchway 0.8 1.0 1.2 2.1 2.0 9.2 1.3 3.2 14.6 5.7 2.2 1.5 6.2 6.2 1.8 0.2 2.0

Southville 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.4 1.5 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.3 0.4 0.0


West Bristol 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.0 1.2 4.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 4.8 0.1 0.6 2.4 11.8 1.6 0.7

Filton 1.9 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.4 3.7 2.4 1.3 6.1 17.9 3.9 1.5 0.7 12.3 8.7 1.9 2.1

Kingswood 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 0.0 2.8 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 1.9 0.0

Brislington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.0


Bath & NE Somerset 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 5.5 2.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 10.7 1.9 0.0

Rest of UK 1.0 0.8 1.2 2.5 1.4 3.7 0.3 1.6 5.6 3.6 0.0 2.1 1.2 4.0 2.7 0.4 0.3


North Somerset 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0



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South Gloucestershire Core Strategy Local Model Validation ... · 9. Summary of Model Development...

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