Soussana jean francois

How can we manage Europe’s terrestrial greenhouse gas balance?

Bilbao, March 8, 2012

Jean-François Soussana

Outline

1. Context: climate negotiations and food security

2. International and European research programing

3. The land based carbon and GHG balance of Europe

4. Comparing arable, pasture and forest systems

5. GHG balance of grazing systems

6. The GHG balance of farms

7. Vulnerability to climate change

89 % of the global technical mitigation potential in agriculture would be through soil carbon sequestration (IPCC, 2007)

Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) account for one third of global greenhouse gas emissions

Lifecycle analysis of products leading

to GHG emissions and removals

Cross-sectoral and cross-boundaries viewCross-sectoral and cross-boundaries view

Climate negotiations

• In 2007, the EU commited to an overall 20 % reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990)

• Agriculture is committed to a 10 % reduction with variable share of efforts across countries

• Modest progress in the UN climate negotiations: International exchanges of views (SBSTA) on the role of agriculture have been decided in Durban

Livestock, a threat to climate

Livestock emits: 1/3 of anthropogenic CH4 (enteric fermentation) 2/3 of anthropogenic N2O, the great majority from manure 9 % of anthropogenic CO2 (deforestation) (FAO, 2006)

Global production of meat and milk are projected to more than double by 2050Food labels in some countries providing carbon ‘footprints’

(J Delincé, 2011)

(from Tara Garnett, Food Climate Research Network, UK)

Role of food habits DUALINE

Poor food habits could lead to lower GHG emissions for women (not for men)

Outline







Global Research Alliance

Paddy Rice Research Group

Croplands Research Group

Livestock Research Group

12

Joint Programing in ResearchJoint Programing in ResearchAgriculture and Climate ChangeAgriculture and Climate Change

(FACCE JPI)(FACCE JPI)

www.faccejpi.com

FACCE-JPI Scoping Mitigation

Storylines,Storylines,Policy optionsPolicy options

Storylines,Storylines,Policy optionsPolicy options

TechnicalTechnicalmeasuresmeasures

TechnicalTechnicalmeasuresmeasures

FarmingFarmingSystems,Systems,Land useLand use

FarmingFarmingSystems,Systems,Land useLand use

LCAsLCAsConsumerConsumerbehavioursbehaviours

LCAsLCAsConsumerConsumerbehavioursbehaviours

MRVMRVICOS, ICOS,

inventoriesinventories

MRVMRVICOS, ICOS,

inventoriesinventories

National National inventoriesinventories

National National inventoriesinventories

Conceptual Conceptual FrameworkFramework

Conceptual Conceptual FrameworkFramework

ICOS – Infrastructure for a Carbon Observation System

ANAeeAnalysis of Ecosystems

A large European infrastructure on (agro) ecosystems

AnimalChange (FP7)Global and regional livestock storylines and scenarios under

climate change

Detailed assessment of mitigation and adaptation options for Europe, Brasil and three regions in Africa

Technical potential, economical potential, barriers to implementation

Field, animal, farm and regional scale modelling

EC FP7 ANIMALCHANGE partners

Direct GHG emissions from livestock

Animal food and GHG emissions

Year

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Sta

nd

ard

ize

d d

ata

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Animal foodDirect GHG emissions from livestockDirect GHG emissions per unit animal food protein

Direct GHG emissions per unit food protein

GHG per animal protein

GHG per plant protein

Mean GHG per food protein

Outline







Towards a full accounting of GHG fluxes from agriculture, forestry and land use?

• Inventories– CH4: enteric

fermentation; manure management

– N2O: agricultural soils; manure management.

– Forest carbon stock changes

– Soil C stock change through land use change and management

• Unknowns– How do emission

factors vary?– Is there a role of

climatic variability?– Are soils sources or

sinks of carbon under constant management?

=> Improve scientific understanding

Land and oceans store carbon

Large interannualvariability in globalland C sink

(Canadell et al.,2007, PNAS)

An assessment of the continental carbon balance of Europe

Downscaling

Verificationµmdm

ha

10 km

1000 km

Upscaling

Prediction

CarboEurope IPFunded and coordinated by the European Commission

DG XII Research

Land based carbon sequestration in Europe (2000-2004)

UNCERTAINTY

(Schulze et al., Nature Geosciences, 2009)

* CH4 and N2O fluxes are expressed as carbon in CO2-equivalents with a greenhouse warming potential of 100 year horizon

Land based greenhouse gas balance in Europe including C sequestration


UNCERTAINTY

Summary of the continental greenhouse gas balance for EU 25

• The land surface sink reaches -111 Million tonnes of carbon per year, which is 11% of the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels.

• However, since the emissions of methane and nitrous oxide are relatively higher in the European Union the land surface emerges as a greenhouse gas source of 34 Million tonnes of carbon per year.

• This effectively increases the emissions from fossil fuel burning by another 3%.


Outline







Ecosystem flux measurements

Simultaneous measurementsof CO2 and H2O

exchanges

Components of a managed ecosystem carbon budget

GPP

NPP

NEP

NBP

Photosynthesis Autotrophicrespiration

Heterotrophicrespiration

Cuts Manure

GPP

NPP

NEP

NBP

Photosynthesis Autotrophicrespiration

Heterotrophicrespiration

Cuts Manure

NEE: Net Ecosystem Exchange, Atmospheric C balanceNBP: Net Biome Productivity, C balance

g C m-2 yr-1

-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500

Forest

Grassland

Cropland

GPPRaRh

Sink Source

The balance between gross photosynthesis (GPP), plant (Ra) and soil organism (Rh) respiration

in contrasted European ecosystems

C balance: NEP

(After Schulze et al., Nature Geosciences, 2009)

The balance between carbon and other greenhouse gases in contrasted European ecosystems

g C m-2 yr-1

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Forest

Grassland

Cropland

NEPHarvest Manure FireDOC/DIC Other GHG GHG balance

(After Schulze et al., Nature Geosciences, 2009& Siemens et al. Global Change Biology, in press)

Sink Source

Dissolved organic C leaching

(Kindler et al., Global Change Biol., 2011)

EU25 terrestrial greenhouse gas balance* including C sequestrationGHG balance of agriculture in EU25 including C sequestration

Megatons C per year

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150

GHG flux

N2O agriculture

CH4 wetlands

CH4 agriculture

Fossil fuel agriculture

Carbon to rivers and seas

Carbon trade balance

Land use change

Peatlands

Cropland

Grassland

Forest soil

Forest biomass

* CH4 and N2O fluxes as carbon in CO2-equivalents with a GHG warming potential of 100 year horizon

SINK SOURCE

The GHG balance of the agriculture sector in Europe

Grassland C sequestration would play a significant role for theEuropean agriculture sector

(After Schulze et al., 2009 Nature Geosciences)

GHG balance of agriculture in EU25 including C sequestration

Mt C yr-1

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Grassland

Cropland

Drained peat

Fossil fuel agriculture

CH4 agriculture

N2O

Outline





5. Carbon balance of grasslands



FCH4FCO2

Fleach

Fanimal-products

FmanureFharvest

Ferosion

Ffire

FVOC

Net carbon storage

Figure 1

FCH4FCO2

Fleach

Fanimal-products

FmanureFharvest

Ferosion

Ffire

FVOC

Net carbon storage

Figure 1

(NBP)

(Soussana et al., 2010, Animal)

NEE

Carbon balance (Net Biome Productivity) :

NBP = (NEE - FCH4-C) + (Fmanure - Fharvest – Fanimal-products) – Fleach

The C balance of a grassland ecosystem

C sequestration in a temperate pasture (tC ha-1 yr-1)

Sown grassland with intensive grazing (Soussana et al., Soil Use Manag., 2004)

DOC, DIC ?

Végétation

Soil

Root turnoverRhizodeposition

Litter

CO2

9.2

Gross primaryproductivity

Below-groundrespiration

Vegetation0 Shoot

respiration

9

3 7

0.7 Animalexcreta

Soil C sequestration:Soil C sequestration: +0.5+0.5

Herbivorerespiration

CH4

0.2

Herbivore+0.05

Grazing

192.1

Végétation

Soil


Litter

CO2

9.2



Végétation

Soil


Litter

CO2

9.2



Vegetation0 Shoot

respiration

9

3 7

0.7 Animalexcreta

Soil C sequestration:Soil C sequestration: +0.5+0.5

Herbivorerespiration

CH4

0.2

Herbivore+0.05

Grazing

192.1

-

-

• The less carbon is used, the more is returned to the soil, which increases C sequestration

• Nitrogen supply also favours carbon sequestration

Carbon sequestration (NBP) at 10 European grassland sites

(Soussana et al. Agriculture, Ecosys. Environment, 2007)

Carbon sink

Carbon source

Disturbance induced changes in C cycling(Klumpp, Falcimage & Soussana, 2007, AGEE; Klumpp, Soussana & Falcimagne, 2007, Biogeosciences)

Above-ground net primaryproductivity (g C m-2 yr-1)

Soi

l C s

eque

stra

tion

(g C

m-2 y

r-1)

Cutting disturbance

COCO22 scrubber scrubber

CompressorCompressor

Steady state 13CO2 labelling

Grassland mesocosm experiment

i) A trade-off between abovegroundproduction and belowground C sequestration

ii) Disturbance reduces mean residence time of Cin soil fractions >200 µ

MRT= 22 month

MRT = 31 month

Cutting disturbance

C s

equ

estr

atio

n (

gC

mC

seq

ues

trat

ion

(g

C m

-2-2))

Separating direct role of disturbance from plant traits: Response & Effect

(Klumpp & Soussana, Global Change Biol., 2009)

b2, direct disturbanceeffect

aE2, trait mediatedeffect

Root density

Disturbance increase: a cascade of effects.Disturbance increase: a cascade of effects.

1. Photosynthesis and root biomass declines

Disturbance

Disturbance treatment

LL LH

Fra

ctio

n of

tota

l PLF

A

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

fungalgram-gram+

2. Decline in fungi andincrease in Gram+ bacteria

5. Change in plant speciescomposition

Month after start of 13C labelling

0 5 10 15 20 25

fPO

M o

ldm

g C

g-1

so

il

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

b

a

b

a

a

b

a

a

LLLH

3. Acceleration of unlabelled POM decomposition

2003

NN

I

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

LLLH

4. Increase in N available for plants and in aboveground production.

Klumpp, Fontaine, Soussana, Journal of Ecology (2009)

Climate x management interactions for annual C sequestration

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Cum

ulat

ive

NE

E (

gC m

-²)

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Late

nt H

eat (

W m

-2)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

a.

b.

c.

d.

e.

f.

g. (Klumpp et al., Global Change Biol., 2011)

High stocking density : 1 LSU ha-1

N, P, K fertiliserLow stocking density: 0.5 LSU ha-1

No fertiliser supply

Intensive plot Extensive plot

High stocking density : 1 LSU ha-1

N, P, K fertiliserLow stocking density: 0.5 LSU ha-1

No fertiliser supply

Intensive plot Extensive plot

Extensive management sequesters more C in wet years, but is less resilient to drought than intensive management:

Extensive: higher LAI and ET, less available N.

Summer droughts

SOURCESOURCE

SINKSINK

Laqueuille site, INRA

Water fluxesWater fluxes

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

NBP (gC m-2 yr-1)

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

Wet grassland (n= 24 )

Pasture (n= 44 )

Meadow

(n= 42 )

Annual C balance of 28 grassland sites

21 sites out of 28 were, on average, C sinks for the atmosphere

Leaching of dissolved carbon (DOC, biogenic DIC, 4 sites): 29 gC m-2 yr-1 (Kindler et al., 2011, GCB)

C source C sink

(n=110 site years, mean ± s.e)

Simple C cycle model (5 state variables, 3 soil parameters)

(Soussana et al., in preparation)

Cplant Clitter Cactive Cslow Cpassive

GPP

Cexport

Cintake

1

Cimport

f(T,P) K2

(1-d-kCH4)Cintake

f(T,P) (1-K2) f(T,P) (1-K2) K2

f(T,P) K22

f(T,P) kslow

f(T,P) kstab

Rh-litter

(1-K1)GPP

Rh-active Rh-slowRa

(d+kCH4)Cintake

Rh-animal

MeasuredModelled

Ecosystem respiration, Reco

Cplant Clitter Cactive Cslow Cpassive

GPP

Cexport

Cintake

1

Cimport

f(T,P) K2

(1-d-kCH4)Cintake

f(T,P) (1-K2) f(T,P) (1-K2) K2

f(T,P) K22

f(T,P) kslow

f(T,P) kstab

Rh-litter

(1-K1)GPP

Rh-active Rh-slowRa

(d+kCH4)Cintake

Rh-animal

MeasuredModelled

Ecosystem respiration, Reco

N balance (g N m-2 yr-1)

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Ksl

ow (

turn

ove

r co

eff

icie

nt,

yr-1

)

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

AT-Ne

CH-Oe

DE-Gr

DK-Ri

ES-Ca

ES-Va

F-La1

F-La2

HU-Bu

IE-Ca

IE-Dr

IT-Am

IT-MB

NL-Ca

PT-Mi

UK-Ea

Silt (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Kst

ab

(sta

bilis

atio

n co

effic

ient

, yr

-1)

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

AT-Ne

CH-Oe

DE-Gr

DK-Ri

ES-Ca

ES-Va

F-La1F-La2

FI-Ka

HU-Bu

IE-Ca

IE-Dr

IT-Am

IT-MB

NL-Ca

PT-Mi

UK-Ea

Best fit for turnover of slow C

Turnover rate (Kslow) of slow C declines with N availability

This is consistent with the priming effect and is not accounted for by classical soil models.

n=15, r2 = 0.81, P< 0.0001

Simulated vs. measured annual C sequestration

C balance is inferred from GPP, climate, management and soil texture

Simulated annual NBP (gC m-2 d-1)

-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Me

asu

red

an

nu

al N

BP

(gC

m-2 d

-1)

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

AT-Ne

CH-OeDE-Gr

DK-Ri

ES-CaES-Va

F-La1

F-La2

HU-Bu

IE-Ca

IE-Dr

IT-Am

IT-MB

PT-Mi

UK-Ea

n=15y = 1.01 ± 0.082 x -14.6 ± 14.8

R2 = 0.921, P<0.00001

Carbon and GHG balance of grazing systems (grassland and farm buildings)

(Soussana et al., 2007, AGEE; Soussana et al., 2010, Animal)

IPCC, Tier 1

(gC m-2 yr-1)

Fleach

10

NCS = 50

Fharvest

At barn

237Fmanure@barn

17

83

NCS@barn = 23

Attributed NCS = 73

5

FCH4FCO2

290

17

Fmanure

FCO2@barn

FCH4@barn

998

Fanimal-products

5

Fanimal-products@barn

4743

Flabile C losses

FN2O

FN2O

Extensive pastures (n=3): 320 gCO2 equivalents m-2 yr-1 (sink)Intensive meadows (n=3): -272 gCO2 equivalents m-2 yr-1 (source)

Carbon balance of EU grazing systems (1987-2007)

(Soussana et al., in preparation)

SourceSource SinkSink

Source Sink

NBP (gC m-2 yr-1)

-250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Cum

ula

ted

rel

ativ

e f

requ

enc

y

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

(permanent grasslands)

Greenhouse gas balance of EU grazing systems (1987-2007)

(permanent grasslands)

Sink Source

IPCC Tier 1For CH4 and N2O

CO2 equivalents

Outline







Mitigation options in New Zealand

(Ag-Research, NZ)

Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

(Moran et al., 2011, J. Agric. Economics)

A model of GHG and C sequestration in livestock farms (FARMSIM)

Feed& strawstores

Manurestores

Arablecrops

Meadows

Pastures

Cattlehousing

Inputs

Energy

Seed

Feed & bedding

Fertilizer

Animalproduce

Cropproduce

Animals

Fixation (C, N)

Gaseous losses(C, N)

Irrigation (N) Runoff (C, N) Leaching (N)

Atmosphericdeposition (N)

Gaseous losses(C, N)

Feed& strawstores

Manurestores

Arablecrops

Meadows

Pastures

Cattlehousing

Inputs

EnergyEnergy

SeedSeed

Feed & beddingFeed & bedding

FertilizerFertilizer

AnimalproduceAnimalproduce

Cropproduce

Cropproduce

Animals

Fixation (C, N)Fixation (C, N)

Gaseous losses(C, N)Gaseous losses(C, N)

Irrigation (N) Runoff (C, N) Leaching (N)

Atmosphericdeposition (N)

Gaseous losses(C, N)Gaseous losses(C, N)

Grassland andcrop models

Lifecycle analysis

IPCCTier 2

A dynamic model coupling lifecycle analysis and carbon sequestration(Salettes et al., 2004; Schils et al., 2007; Duretz et al., 2009)

Summary: greenhouse gas balance per unit area of grasslands and of livestock farms

SINK SOURCE

Outline





5. Carbon balance of grasslands



Did the 2003 European heatwavelead to a CO2 concentration?

Summer temperature anomaly (July 2003, MODIS)

Vegetation anomaly in July 2003

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/modis_lst_europe_2001-2003_lrg.jpg

Net Primary Productivity change in 2003vs. 1998-2002

(Ciais et al., Nature 2005)

Summer Annual

On average, the 2003 heat spell, combined with the drought, caused a 195 and 77 gC m-2 yr-1 decline in ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration, respectively.

Heat Drought

Heat Drought

Reduced GPP,Xylem embolism

Reduced reserves

Reduced GPP,Xylem embolism

Reduced reserves

Frost damageReduced foliage

Pests and insects damages

Frost damageReduced foliage

Pests and insects damages

Tree mortalityForest decline, Wildfires

Tree mortalityForest decline, Wildfires

Change in land use: forest to fallow or rangeland

Change in land use: forest to fallow or rangeland

Increased Closses

Possible knock-on effects of extreme climatic events

Misadaptation?

http://www.carbo-extreme.eu/index.php?n=Main

Impacts of climate variability and extremes on the C cycle in

grasslandsInterannual variability

Agricultural management

Greenhouse gasemissions

What are the impacts of summer

heat and drought extremes?C, control

CX, Control and extreme (‘summer 2003’ heat wave)

T, average year in the 2050’s

TX, extreme year in the 2050’s

Automated rain shelters

Passive IR Active regulated IR

Med

lyL

udacD

acty

lis

glom

erat

a

Med

iterr

an

ean

Tem

pera

te

+ X + X- X - X

End of heat wave Two months after heat wave

CC

CC

TT

TT

Concluding comments (1/2)

1. Soil carbon needs to be accounted to achieve a consistent GHG balance in the agriculture, forestry and land use sector

2. Forestry has attracted more efforts so far, but is vulnerable to climate extremes (e.g. storms, fires and droughts)

3. Soil carbon sequestration requires advanced verification methods, which are still lacking in real farm conditions

4. There are multiple trade-offs between agricultural production, carbon sequestration and N2O and CH4 emissions. Agricultural systems will need to be gradually optimized in each European region.

5. Mitigation strategies could be based on the eco-efficiency of farms, that is their net GHG emissions per unit of food, feed or fiber product.

6. Uncertainties scale up with the length of the food supply chains. There is no consensus yet on lifecycle analyses for long supply chains like livestock production.

Concluding comments (2/2)

7. Carbon sequestration should be sustained over several decades to be effective.

8. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation to climate change need to be addressed consistently

9. In addition, there are trade-offs between mitigation, adaptation, food security, land use and biodiversity.

We try to address these multiple constraints

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