SOS Real Estate Panel Powerpoint Presentation · San Francisco San Jose 550 500 450 400 350 300 250...
Transcript of SOS Real Estate Panel Powerpoint Presentation · San Francisco San Jose 550 500 450 400 350 300 250...
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2001200019991998199719961995199419931992
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Index 1992=100
Home SalesGSP Growth
GSP Growth vs. Home SalesCalifornia
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Freddie Mac Conventional Mortgage Price IndexCalifornia vs. United States
02010099989796959493929190898887
240
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100
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Index 1987Q1=100
CaliforniaUnited States
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Mortgage Rate Stimulates Housing SalesCalifornia
2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
900
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600
500
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9.5
9.0
8.5
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Thousands (SAAR) Percent
Home Sales (L)Conventional Mortgage Rate (R)
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Median Home Prices – CA vs. U.S.1980 - 2001
0098969492908886848280
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CaliforniaUnited States
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California’s Rising Home Prices1992 vs. 2001
Sta. BarbaraVallejo
Santa RosaOrange Co.
Santa CruzSalinas
San FranciscoSan Jose
550
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450
400
350
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US$ Thousands
19922001
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California’s Rising Home Prices1992 vs. 2001
FresnoSacramento
ReddingChico
Los AngelesSan Luis Obispo
VenturaSan Diego
300
250
200
150
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US$ Thousands
19922001
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California’s Building Permits Rally BackResidential Building Permits
2002200120001999199819971996199519941993
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CaliforniaUnited States
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How Long Can It Last?California Unemployment Rate Rises
02010099989796959493929190
900
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9
8
7
6
5
4
Thousands (SAAR) Percent
Home Sales (L)Unemployment Rate (R)
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Income Growth Propels Housing MarketCalifornia
02010099989796959493929190
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Thousands (SAAR) Index 1991Q1=100
Home Sales (L)Income Growth (R)
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U.S. Consumer Confidence DwindlesThe Short Run
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0201
0099
9897
9695
9493
9291
9089
8887
8685
8483
8281
8079
7877
7675
7473
7271
7069
6867
160
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100
80
60
40
20
Index 1985=100
U.S. Historical Consumer ConfidenceThe Long Run
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Race Profiles for Occupations
Professional & Managers
Clerical & Sales
Skilled Blue Collar
Unskilled & Services
White AsianAfrican American
Hispanic Indian
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U.S. Latino PopulationPercentage in California
20202010200019901980
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Percent
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Department of Finance
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California Latino PopulationProjected Growth
20402030202020102000
30
25
20
15
10
5
Millions of People
Source: California Department of Finance
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Latino Spending Power in California
2007200220001990
300
250
200
150
100
50
$US Billions
Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth
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0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
14000000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+
66%34%
CA Latino Population Distribution2000
AgeSource: California Department of Finance
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African AmericanLatinoAsianWhiteAll Households
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Rate
California Homeownership Ratesby Ethnicity, 2000
Source: California Budget Project Analysis of the Current Population Survey, 2000
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Top 10 Homebuyer Surnames2000
Source: California Association of Realtors
NorthernCalifornia
SouthernCalifornia
Los AngelesCounty
1 Nguyen Garcia Garcia2 Wong Hernandez Lee3 Lee Lopez Rodriguez4 Chan Martinez Kim5 Tran Smith Hernandez6 Johnson Gonzalez Lopez7 Smith Rodriguez Gonzalez8 Singh Lee Martinez9 Garcia Kim Smith
10 Martinez Johnson Perez
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California Counties With Latino HomebuyersTop Ten Counties, 2001
Source: California Association of Realtors
Contra CostaVentura
FresnoSanta Clara
SacramentoSan Diego
OrangeRiverside
San BernardinoLos Angeles
25
20
15
10
5
0
Thousands of Homes
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California Latino Homeownership RatesThirty-year Comparison
Sources: US Census Bureau, Public Policy Institute of California
2000199019801970
50
48
46
44
42
40
Ownership Rate
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15 or More Years10 - 14 Years5 - 9 YearsLess Than 4 Years
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Percent
Length of Current HomeownershipAmong California Hispanics, 2001
Source: Pepperdine University
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Avoid Paying RentIndependence
Desire to OwnInvestment
Larger Family
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Percent
Top Five Reasons For Purchasing a HomeAmong California Hispanics, 2001
Source: Pepperdine University
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90%
89%
87%
87%
84%
80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92%
Owning is Better for Raising aFamily
Owning is a Good FinancialInvestment for Me
Owning Provides Me MoreIndependence
Owning Requires MoreResponsibility
Owning Provides Me a Sense ofSecurity/Stability
Source: Pepperdine University
Experience of Homeownership Among CA Hispanics“Strongly Agree” With Following Statements
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13%
16%
17%
19%
21%
22%
28%
29%
33%
37%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Working with Realtor/Agent
Obtaining Approval for Loan
Selecting/Finding a Lender
Establishing Good Credit
Finding a Community I Liked
Finding a Good Realtor/Agent
Obtaining the Downpayment
Application/Paperwork Process
Understanding Home-Buying Process
Finding a House I Liked
Top Challenges to HomeownershipCalifornia Hispanics
Source: Pepperdine University
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9%
37%
10%
14%
14%
13%
26%
25%
30%
36%
16%
29%
24%
23%
28%
30%
31%
34%
38%
40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Working with Realtor/Agent
Obtaining Approval for Loan
Selecting/Finding a Lender
Establishing Good Credit
Finding a Community I Liked
Finding a Good Realtor/Agent
Obtaining the Downpayment
Application/Paperwork Process
Understanding Home-Buying Process
Finding a House I Liked
Foreign-Born
U.S.-Born
Top Challenges to HomeownershipAmong California Hispanics
Source: Pepperdine University
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3+21
75
56
38
19
0
Percent
Number of Names on Home TitleAmong California Hispanic Homeowners
Source: Pepperdine University
Note: Percentages Do Not Add Up to 100% Due to Respondents Indicating “Don’t Know/Refused”
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Household Income Spent on Monthly MortgageU.S.-Born vs. Foreign Born, California
Source: Pepperdine University
Foreign-BormU.S.-Born
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Percent
Less Than 30% of Household IncomeMore Than 30% of Household Income
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Type of Interest Rate
64%9%
7%
7%
13%Fixed
Variable
Adjustable
Other
Refused
Term of Loans
76%
5%5%
6%
8%
30 yr
15 yr
Other
None
Refused
Type of Loan Obtained
56%
25%
11%
5% 3%
Conventional
Govt (FHA)
Refused
None
Other
Type of Loan Used to Purchase Home
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Price Ranges of a Purchased Home
Source: Pepperdine University
Note: Percentages Do Not Add Up to 100% Due to Respondents Indicating “Don’t Know/Refused”
Greater Than $200K$150K - $200K
$100K - $150K$80K - $100K
Less Than $80K
28
24
19
15
10
Percent of Houses Purchased
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$$ Amount Used for Down Payment
Source: Pepperdine University
Note: Percentages Do Not Add Up to 100% Due to Respondents Indicating “Don’t Know/Refused”
$20K or Greater$10K - $20K
$5K - $10K$1K - $5K
No Money Down
30
25
20
15
10
5
Percent
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OtherAdvertisingFamilyFriendRealtor/Agent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Percent
How Did You Find The Lender?
Source: Pepperdine University
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Source: Pepperdine University
Type of HomeExplain How to Finance
Amount AffordableFinding a Lender
Paperwork
70
65
60
55
50
45
Percent
Services Provided by Real Estate AgentsTo Latino Homebuyers
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Source: Pepperdine University
Percent of Monthly Income Spent on Rent
20% or Less21% - 30%31% - 40%Over 40%
35
30
25
20
15
10
Percent
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16%
28%
42%Bad Credit/No Credit
Insufficient Income for DownPayment or No Money
Other
No86%
Yes14%
WHY WERE YOU UNSUCCESSFUL?
HAVE YOU TRIED TO PURCHASE BEFORE?
Renters Previously UnsuccessfulWhen Trying to Buy a Home
Source: Pepperdine University
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Source: Pepperdine University
Renters Likely to Purchase HomeWithin Five Years
69%
31%
Not at All LikelyNot Very Likely
Somewhat LikelyVery Likely
Extremely Likely
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Percent
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Looking to Purchase in . . .
39%
31%
19%
11%DK/Refused
4+ yrs.
2-4 yrs.
<2 yrs.
Respondents Likely to Purchase in Next Five Years
Why Not Likely?
43%
23%
4%Credit
Not Interested
InsufficientFinance
Respondents Not Likely to Purchase in Next Five Years
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Level of Optimism of Purchasing Home in Future After Five Years
14%
28%
46%Optimistic
Pessimistic
Neither
Level of Optimism
5%
7%
32%
54%
Pessimistic
Neither
Somewhat
Very
Respondents Likely to Purchase Next Five Years
Respondents Not Likely to Purchase Next Five Years
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Projected Size of Down Payment
26%
26%
16%
9%$20K+
$10-20K
$5-10K
$1-5KProjected Price Range of Future Home Purchase
19%
13%
22%
20%
12%
$200K+
$150-200K
$100-150K
$80-100K
<$80K
Respondents Likely to Purchasein Next Five Years
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Source: Pepperdine University
Latinos Prefer Spanish When Buying HomeTo Conduct Home Purchase
EitherEngishSpanish
40
35
30
25
20
15
Percent
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Prefer to Work with Hispanic/Latino
Lender Representative?
24%
9%
63%
EitherNoYes
Prefer to Work with Hispanic/Latino Real Estate Agent?
17%5%
78%
EitherNoYes
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1 Salinas, CA 11 Santa Barbara, CA2 Santa Cruz, CA 12 Stockton, CA3 San Francisco, CA 13 Medford, OR4 San Luis Obispo, CA 14 Merced, CA5 Santa Rosa, CA 15 Modesto, CA6 Vallejo, CA 16 Los Angeles, CA7 San Jose, CA 17 Lowell, MA-NH8 Portsmouth, NH 18 Barnstable, MA9 San Diego, CA 19 Ventura, CA
10 Oakland, CA 20 Orange Co., CA
Top Twenty Least Affordable Housing Markets
Source: National Association of Homebuilders, 1sr Quarter 2002
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Source: California Employment Development Department
Housing Production vs. Net Job GrowthCalifornia
01009998979695949392919089888786858483
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
Thousands
Net Job GrowthHousing Production
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Housing Demand
Overall HousingUnitsSingle-Family
Housing Need
Housing DeficitCalifornia
Source: California Department of Finance
Hou
sing
Pro
duct
ion
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Source: California Association of Realtors
Single Family Home SalesCalifornia, 1970 - 2001
0100
9998
9796
9594
9392
9190
8988
8786
8584
8382
8180
7978
7776
7574
7372
7170
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
Thousands
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Source: California Association of Realtors
Average Single Family Median Home PriceCalifornia, 1990 - 2002
02010099989796959493929190
350
300
250
200
150
Thousands
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Source: California Association of Realtors
Housing Affordability in CaliforniaPercent Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home
02010099989796959493929190898887868584
40
35
30
25
20
Percent
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51%
46%
43%
40%
40%
37%
37%
33%
31%
22%
20%
20%
18%
17%
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
San Bernardino
Fresno County
Sacramento
Central Valley
Stanislaus County
Merced County
Riverside County
Ventura
Los Angeles
Orange County
San Diego
San Luis Obisbo
Santa Barbara Area
San Francisco Bay Area
Santa Cruz County
Housing Affordability Index in CaliforniaPercent Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home
Source: California Association of Realtors
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Overcrowded & Substandard Rental Units In Metropolitan California, 1999
Source: California Association of Realtors
Percent ofHouseholds
Number ofHouseholds
Overcrowded ( > 1 Person/Room) 13% 505,636Severely Overcrowded ( > 1.5 Persons/Room) 4% 159,857Overcrowded Latino Households 33% 403,571Substandard Conditions 12% 492,792Severe Substandard Conditions 4% 161,110
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Total Past Due California Loans1979-2002
019997959391898785838179
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
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Bank Home Equity LoansAnnual Growth
0201009998979695949392919089
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Percent Annual Growth
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Los Angeles MSA Median Home Price/U.S. Median Home Price
020098969492908886848280
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
MSA Median/U.S. MedianAverage
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Los Angeles MSAMedian Home Price/U.S. Median Home Price, Income Adjusted
020098969492908886848280
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
MSA Median/U.S. MedianAverage
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San Francisco-San Jose MSAMedian Home Price/U.S. Median Home Price
020098969492908886848280
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
MSA Median/U.S. MedianAverage
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San Francisco-San Jose MSAMedian Home Price/U.S. Median Home Price, Income Adjusted
020098969492908886848280
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
MSA Median/U.S. MedianAverage
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Home Price Index/Owner’s Rent Index Los Angeles MSA
020098969492908886848280
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
RatioAverage
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Home Price Index/Owner’s Rent Index San Francisco - San Jose MSA
020098969492908886848280
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
RatioAverage
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Home Price Index vs. Loan/Purchase Price RatioLos Angeles PMSA
020098969492908886848280
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
Index Ratio
Home Price Index (L)Loan to Purchase Price Ratio (R)
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Home Price Index vs. Loan/Purchase Price RatioS.F.- San Jose PMSA
020098969492908886848280
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
Index Ratio
Home Price Index (L)Loan to Purchase Price Ratio (R)
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
California
Source: REIS
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Northern California
Source: REIS
-8,000-6,000
-4,000-2,000
0
2,0004,0006,000
8,00010,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Southern California
Source: REIS
-10,000-5,000
05,000
10,000
15,00020,00025,000
30,00035,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
1990-2002 Average Annual Rental Rate Growth
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Los Ang
eles
San J
ose
San F
rancis
co
Orange
County
Inlan
d Empir
e
San D
iego
Oaklan
d
Source: REIS
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
San Francisco
Source: REIS
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
San Francisco
Source: REIS
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
$1,900
$2,100
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Rental Rate Vacancy
1990–2005 Average Rental Rate Growth: 6.5%
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Oakland
Source: REIS
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Oakland
Source: REIS
$550$650$750$850$950
$1,050$1,150$1,250$1,350$1,450
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Rental Rate Vacancy
1990–2005 Average Rental Rate Growth: 5.5%
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
San Jose
Source: REIS
-3,000-2,000-1,000
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
San Jose
Source: REIS
$650
$850
$1,050
$1,250
$1,450
$1,650
$1,850
$2,050
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Rental Rate Vacancy
1990–2005 Average Rental Rate Growth: 5.0%
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Los Angeles
Source: REIS
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Los Angeles
Source: REIS
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Rental Rate Vacancy
1990–2005 Average Rental Rate Growth: 3.8%
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Orange County
Source: REIS
-2,000-1,000
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Orange County
Source: REIS
$650
$750
$850
$950
$1,050
$1,150
$1,250
$1,350
$1,450
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Rental Rate Vacancy
1990–2005 Average Rental Rate Growth: 4.7%
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Inland Empire
Source: REIS
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
Inland Empire
Source: REIS
$450$500$550$600$650$700$750$800$850$900$950
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Rental Rate Vacancy
1990–2005 Average Rental Rate Growth: 3.7%
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Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
San Diego
Source: REIS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Completions Absorption
![Page 95: SOS Real Estate Panel Powerpoint Presentation · San Francisco San Jose 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 US$ Thousands 1992 2001. California’s Rising Home Prices 1992 vs. 2001](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050405/5f8293a147d9f66682502f8c/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
Am
erica’s Choice F
or Apartm
ent Living
San Diego
Source: REIS
$550
$650
$750
$850
$950
$1,050
$1,150
$1,250
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Rental Rate Vacancy
1990–2005 Average Rental Rate Growth: 5.3%
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