Sorsogon City Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment. to validate City exposure to climate change impact and define its sensitivities and adaptive capacities

V&A Assessment ProcessFormation of Technical Working GroupDefinition and agreement on objective and frameworkLocalizing of climate change scenario/exposureAssessment of sensitivities (hotspots!)Ground truthing of findings thru FGDs with communities

Sorsogon City CC Exposure/ScenarioRisk is Very High on combined risks to typhoons, drought caused by El Nino, projected rainfall change and projected temperature increase according to the DENR/Manila Observatory data

Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario1. Tropical Cyclones

The city is situated in the countrys geographical zone 6 where at least 3 cyclones every two years pass (PINCCC)

2006 super typhoons Milenyo and Reming devastated the city

Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario2. Temperature Change :

2-3 degrees centigrade increase in temperature

3. Increased Precipitation50% increase in annual rainfall 4. Sea Level RiseIncreasing trend in annual mean sea level occurred since 1970

Sensitivity: City Hotspots

Sensitivity to Tropical Cyclones/Storm Surge

Sensitivity to Flooding and Land Slide

Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise

Barangay Sirangan

Sirangan simulated with SLR of 0.5m

Sirangan simulated with SLR of 1.0m

Sirangan simulated with SLR of 2m

Sensitivity: City Hotspots

BarangayClassificationLand Area (Ha)PopulationBalogoUrban152.855251Bitan-OUrban19.203028Cabid-anUrban223.565426Cambulaga Urbanizing37.104097PiotUrban65.962572SampalocUrban12.585214SiranganUrban4.962491TalisayUrban12.402660PoblacionUrban174.514882Sto. NinoRural385.132008OsiaoRural1015.662721GimalotoRural143907

Findings, Implications and Challenges

Findings, Implications and ChallengesGovernance and Development Programming

The land use plan must be revisited considering the projected risks were found in the built environment (hotspots).

There are also hotspots in the Agricultural (Osiao and Sto. Nino) and Mangrove areas (Gimaloto). This would have implications on the existing city agri and environment programs.

The city has not considered yet the risks areas and climate change impacts into its physical development planning.

Data and information management needs to be developed (GIS, Knowledge Management)

Findings, Implications and ChallengesGovernance and Disaster Risk Management:

Need to strengthen CDCC and BDCC including coordination systems with the Provincial and Regional levelsIntegration of climate change and DRM in the development planning of the CityEnhancing preparedness and mitigation

Findings, Implications and ChallengesGovernance and Institutional Coordination:

Given the complexities of City CC sensitivity, the different tiers of local government and other stakeholders need to improve coordination and collaboration mechanisms

Support of private sector (from within and outside the city) in Climate Risk Management is still very limited thus needs strengthening

Findings, Implications and ChallengesSettlements/Built-Up Area: Most of the Hotspots are host to major commercial and residential areas Total population in the hotspots is 41,257 where 35,621 is at the urban and urbanizing barangays Informal settlers are located in the shorelines of the hotspots Poverty Incidence: 43% Given increased precipitation and flooding in some areas, urban slums are at high risk to climate related diseases and illnesses. Limited knowledge on climate change was emphasized during FGDs with communities A large number of housing structures in the hotspots are made of light materials while the protective community structure (sea wall) is aging, damaged, and needs repair

Vulnerable to flooding 36.6%24%Vulnerable to multiple hazards22,000+ women at risk

Findings, Implications and ChallengesEconomy and Productivity

Agriculture: 2,482 has. of rice paddies tilled by 3,313 farmers and 9,930 has. of coconut areas managed by 7,272 farmers are vulnerable to tropical cyclones

Following the sea level-rise scenarios of 0.5 m, 1.0 m of the IPCC as well as the 2.0 m worst case scenario, the downtown area where major commercial establishments are located would be affected by land inundation.

The tourism sector which is highly weather/climate dependent are facing risks. The revenues of beach resorts and the parks located in the coastal areas as well as the income of small traders and micro-entrepreneurs linked with tourism establishments would be affected.

Findings, Implications and ChallengesEnvironmental Management and Climate Change Mitigation

The fishing communities adaptation to climate change impacts could be strained with the degradation of coastal and marine resources.

The forest cover of the city should still be improved as run-offs still causes floods. with heavier rainfalls and stronger typhoons due to climate change, the built environment is facing a great deal of risks from flash floods and erosion. This issue also limits carbon sequestration capabilities of the city.

Residential electricity users contribute the highest in the City Carbon emission profile (electricity and gas consumption).

The city is yet to fully operationalize its SWM plan (controlled dumpsite issue)

City Emission Profile

City Emission Profile [1] Used the national power mix emission factor. http://www.klima.ph/resources/MO/08_LearningModules/ghg_calculator/primer/primer.html)*Assumptions: Average litres used/day = 2.2 litres/days; usage days/wk = 6.1 days/week; Unit usage per month = 53.69 litres; Unit gas usage/year 644.16 litres

Energy Consumer TypeConsumption (KwH)EF (tCO2/KWH)Total emission (tCO2)Residential15,567,752.000.000594 9,247.24 Commercial7,758,177.000.000594 4,608.36 Industrial1,018,440.000.000594 604.95 Public street/highway lighting373533.580.000594 221.88 Public Buildings3,122,8480.000594 1,854.97 TOTAL27,840,750.580.000594 16,537.41

Tricycle in Sorsogon CityGas Consumed in 2007*Emission Factor (tCO2/liter)Total tCO2 emissions in 200731142005914.240.002274553.425

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

*************Based on existing city topographic map, this simulation shows us the possible inundation of our urban coastal areas, which is also a built-up area where settlements, businesses, and some government institutions and facilities are located. The simulation worked on the projected sea level rise of half meter, 1 meter and 2 meters sea level rise. This simulation map was prepared by our local Technical Working Group. With the provision of GIS from the CCCI project, we expect to produce more accurate information that would help us in projecting climate change scenarios and impacts, and therefore, be more efficient and responsive in designing and implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation programs.**This simulated map shows us the inundation of our urban coastal areas, which is also a built-up area where settlements, businesses, and some government institutions and facilities are located. The simulation followed the projected sea level rise of half meter, 1 meter and 2 meters sea level rise. This simulation map was prepared by our local Technical Working Group. With the provision of GIS from the CCCI project, we expect to produce more accurate information that would help us in projecting climate change scenarios and impacts, and therefore, be more efficient and responsive in designing and implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation programs.**This simulated map shows us the inundation of our urban coastal areas, which is also a built-up area where settlements, businesses, and some government institutions and facilities are located. The simulation followed the projected sea level rise of half meter, 1 meter and 2 meters sea level rise. This simulation map was prepared by our local Technical Working Group. With the provision of GIS from the CCCI project, we expect to produce more accurate information that would help us in projecting climate change scenarios and impacts, and therefore, be more efficient and responsive in designing and implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation programs.**This simulated map shows us the inundation of our urban coastal areas, which is also a built-up area where settlements, businesses, and some government institutions and facilities are located. The simulation followed the projected sea level rise of half meter, 1 meter and 2 meters sea level rise. This simulation map was prepared by our local Technical Working Group. With the provision of GIS from the CCCI project, we expect to produce more accurate information that would help us in projecting climate change scenarios and impacts, and therefore, be more efficient and responsive in designing and implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation programs.********Following the current and expected exposure of the city to climate change scenario that I showed you in my previous slides, we foresee these inter-related and complex sensitivities and vulnerabilities

In terms of demographics, around 36.6% of our total population or 55,452 people are vulnerable to flooding. 35,621 people from 9 coastal villages are continuously threatened by sea level rise and storm surge and more than 22,000 women are highly at risk.*****