Sorsogon City Sorsogon City Climate Change Climate Change

Vulnerability and Adaptation Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Assessment

Validation with StakeholdersValidation with Stakeholders

2 December 20082 December 2008

Refers to any change in climate Refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural over time, whether due to natural variability or because of human variability or because of human activityactivity

Possible Effects of Climate ChangePossible Effects of Climate Change

Average Annual Impact (Phils.)Average Annual Impact (Phils.)

1,025 Deaths1,025 Deaths 835 Injuries835 Injuries 252,915 People Displaced252,915 People Displaced P8 Billion Worth of DamagesP8 Billion Worth of Damages

Cyclone Milenyo (2006)Cyclone Milenyo (2006)

27,100 Families or 159,311 Persons 27,100 Families or 159,311 Persons AffectedAffected

17,114 Partially Damaged Houses and 17,114 Partially Damaged Houses and 10,070 Totally Damaged Houses (P1.27B)10,070 Totally Damaged Houses (P1.27B)

Agriculture & Fisheries Damage: P234MAgriculture & Fisheries Damage: P234M Public Infrastructure Damage: P208MPublic Infrastructure Damage: P208M Damage to Business: P500MDamage to Business: P500M

Climate Change FindingsClimate Change FindingsGlobal (IPCC)Global (IPCC) National National (PINCCC)(PINCCC) SorsogonSorsogon

Average surface temperature Average surface temperature increased by 0.74increased by 0.74ooC (1960-2005)C (1960-2005)

Global average sea level rose Global average sea level rose (due to increase in average (due to increase in average surface temperature) at an surface temperature) at an average of 1.8 mm per year over average of 1.8 mm per year over 1961-2003 1961-2003

Projected increases for further Projected increases for further warming from 1.4warming from 1.4ooC to 5.8C to 5.8ooC C during the 21during the 21stst century leading century leading further increase in sea level further increase in sea level projected from 18-59 cm in 2010 projected from 18-59 cm in 2010 and from 1 m to 2 m (worst case) and from 1 m to 2 m (worst case) at the end of the 21at the end of the 21stst century century

Projected increase of an Projected increase of an average of 2 to 3 average of 2 to 3 ooC C temperaturetemperature

60 to 100 % increase in 60 to 100 % increase in annual rainfall for Central annual rainfall for Central Visayas and Southern Visayas and Southern TagalogTagalog

increasing trend in annual increasing trend in annual mean sea level since 1970’s mean sea level since 1970’s from the tidal gauge stations from the tidal gauge stations in the country including the in the country including the one in Legaspi Albayone in Legaspi Albay stronger and more frequent stronger and more frequent tropical cyclonetropical cyclone

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Sorsogon City Climate Sorsogon City Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A)

Assessment!Assessment!

“ “ to validate City exposure to to validate City exposure to climate change impact and define climate change impact and define

its sensitivities and adaptive its sensitivities and adaptive capacities”capacities”

V&A Assessment ProcessV&A Assessment Process

Formation of Technical Working GroupFormation of Technical Working Group Definition and agreement on objective and Definition and agreement on objective and

framework framework Localizing of climate change Localizing of climate change

scenario/exposurescenario/exposure Assessment of sensitivities (hotspots!)Assessment of sensitivities (hotspots!) Ground truthing of findings thru FGDs with Ground truthing of findings thru FGDs with

communitiescommunities

Sorsogon City CC Exposure/ScenarioSorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario

Risk is Risk is Very HighVery High on on combined risks to combined risks to typhoons, drought typhoons, drought caused by El Nino, caused by El Nino, projected rainfall projected rainfall change and change and projected projected temperature increase temperature increase according to the according to the DENR/Manila DENR/Manila Observatory data Observatory data

Sorsogon City CC Exposure/ScenarioSorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario

1. Tropical Cyclones1. Tropical Cyclones

The city is situated in The city is situated in the country’s the country’s geographical zone 6 geographical zone 6 where at least 3 where at least 3 cyclones every two cyclones every two years pass years pass ((PINCCCPINCCC))

2006 super typhoons 2006 super typhoons Milenyo and Reming Milenyo and Reming devastated the citydevastated the city

Sorsogon City CC Exposure/ScenarioSorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario

2. Temperature Change :2. Temperature Change :

2-3 degrees centigrade 2-3 degrees centigrade increase in temperatureincrease in temperature

3. Increased Precipitation3. Increased Precipitation 50% increase in annual 50% increase in annual

rainfallrainfall 4. Sea Level Rise4. Sea Level Rise Increasing trend in annual Increasing trend in annual

mean sea level occurred mean sea level occurred since 1970since 1970

Sensitivity to Tropical Cyclones/Storm SurgeSensitivity to Tropical Cyclones/Storm Surge

City Center

Sensitivity to Flooding and Land SlideSensitivity to Flooding and Land Slide

City Center

Flooding Landslide

Sensitivity to Sea Level RiseSensitivity to Sea Level RiseUrban and Urbanizing Barangays threatened with SLR

City Center

Barangay SiranganBarangay Sirangan

Sirangan simulated with SLR of 0.5mSirangan simulated with SLR of 0.5m

Sirangan simulated with SLR of 1.0mSirangan simulated with SLR of 1.0m

Sirangan simulated with SLR of 2mSirangan simulated with SLR of 2m

Sensitivity: City HotspotsSensitivity: City Hotspots

HOTSPOTS

HOTSPOTS

Storm Surge & SLR

Flooding

Land Slide

Sensitivity: City HotspotsSensitivity: City Hotspots

Barangay Classification Land Area (Ha) Population

Balogo Urban 152.85 5251

Bitan-O Urban 19.20 3028

Cabid-an Urban 223.56 5426

Cambulaga Urbanizing 37.10 4097

Piot Urban 65.96 2572

Sampaloc Urban 12.58 5214

Sirangan Urban 4.96 2491

Talisay Urban 12.40 2660

Poblacion Urban 174.51 4882

Sto. Nino Rural 385.13 2008

Osiao Rural 1015.66 2721

Gimaloto Rural 143 907

ConsequencesConsequences Affected SectorsAffected Sectors ImpactsImpacts

- Sea levelSea level

- TemperatureTemperature

- PrecipitationPrecipitation

-Extreme EventsExtreme Events

Governance Governance

SettlementsSettlements

AgricultureAgriculture

FishingFishing

HealthHealth

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Transport &Transport &

EnergyEnergy

Air & Water quallity Air & Water quallity

Increased DiseasesIncreased Diseases

Lower Water availabilityLower Water availability

Increased FloodingIncreased Flooding

Increased cooling demandIncreased cooling demand

Increased migration of peopleIncreased migration of people

Inundation of coastsInundation of coasts

Economic disruptionsEconomic disruptions

Livelihoods and Food Livelihoods and Food securitysecurity

Increase energy loadsIncrease energy loads

Findings, Implications and ChallengesFindings, Implications and Challenges

HOTSPOTS

HOTSPOTS

Findings, Implications and ChallengesFindings, Implications and Challenges

Governance and Development ProgrammingGovernance and Development Programming

The land use plan must be revisited considering the projected The land use plan must be revisited considering the projected risks were found in the built environment (hotspots).risks were found in the built environment (hotspots).

There are also hotspots in the Agricultural (Osiao and Sto. There are also hotspots in the Agricultural (Osiao and Sto. Nino) and Mangrove areas (Gimaloto). This would have Nino) and Mangrove areas (Gimaloto). This would have implications on the existing city agri and environment implications on the existing city agri and environment programs.programs.

The city has not considered yet the risks areas and climate The city has not considered yet the risks areas and climate change impacts into its physical development planning.change impacts into its physical development planning.

Data and information management needs to be developed Data and information management needs to be developed (GIS, Knowledge Management)(GIS, Knowledge Management)

Findings, Implications and ChallengesFindings, Implications and Challenges

Governance and Disaster Risk Management:Governance and Disaster Risk Management:

- Need to strengthen CDCC and BDCC Need to strengthen CDCC and BDCC including coordination systems with the including coordination systems with the Provincial and Regional levelsProvincial and Regional levels

- Integration of climate change and DRM in the Integration of climate change and DRM in the development planning of the Citydevelopment planning of the City

- Enhancing preparedness and mitigation Enhancing preparedness and mitigation

Findings, Implications and ChallengesFindings, Implications and Challenges

Governance and Institutional Coordination:Governance and Institutional Coordination:

- Given the complexities of City CC sensitivity, the Given the complexities of City CC sensitivity, the different tiers of local government and other different tiers of local government and other stakeholders need to improve coordination and stakeholders need to improve coordination and collaboration mechanismscollaboration mechanisms

- Support of private sector (from within and outside Support of private sector (from within and outside the city) in Climate Risk Management is still very the city) in Climate Risk Management is still very limited thus needs strengthening limited thus needs strengthening

Findings, Implications and ChallengesFindings, Implications and ChallengesSettlements/Built-Up Area:

Most of the Hotspots are host to major commercial and Most of the Hotspots are host to major commercial and residential areas residential areas

total population in the hotspots is 41,257 where 35,621 is at the total population in the hotspots is 41,257 where 35,621 is at the urban and urbanizing barangays urban and urbanizing barangays

informal settlers are located in the shorelines of the hotspots informal settlers are located in the shorelines of the hotspots

Location Remarks

Sirangan Along the shoreline and on Delgado Street.

Talisay Along the shoreline of Sorsogon Bay.

Sampaloc Along shorelines and on private lot.

Salog Along riverbanks, on City lot and Provincial lot

Bitan-o On private lands

Maharlika Highway, Provincial and City Roads

Along the road and portion of the road-right-of-way

Subdivisions In open spaces of Sts. Peter and Paul Subdivision

Vulnerable to flooding 36.6%

24%Vulnerable to multiple hazards

22,000+ women at risk

Findings, Implications and ChallengesFindings, Implications and Challenges

Poverty Incidence: 43%Poverty Incidence: 43% Given increased precipitation and flooding in some Given increased precipitation and flooding in some

areas, urban slums are at high risk to climate related areas, urban slums are at high risk to climate related diseases and illnesses. diseases and illnesses.

Increased salinity of source of drinking in some areasIncreased salinity of source of drinking in some areas Limited knowledge on climate change was emphasized Limited knowledge on climate change was emphasized

during FGDs with communitiesduring FGDs with communities A large number of housing structures in the hotspots are A large number of housing structures in the hotspots are

made light materials while the protective community made light materials while the protective community structure (sea wall) is aging, damaged, and needs repairstructure (sea wall) is aging, damaged, and needs repair

Community FGD Community FGD (Sirangan & Poblacion)(Sirangan & Poblacion)

Community FGD Community FGD (Talisay & Cambulaga)(Talisay & Cambulaga)

Findings, Implications and ChallengesFindings, Implications and Challenges

Agriculture: 2,482 has. of rice Agriculture: 2,482 has. of rice paddies tilled by 3,313 farmers paddies tilled by 3,313 farmers and 9,930 has. of coconut and 9,930 has. of coconut areas managed by 7,272 areas managed by 7,272 farmers are vulnerable to farmers are vulnerable to tropical cyclonestropical cyclones

Most vulnerable areas are Most vulnerable areas are located in the 9 hot-spots (211 located in the 9 hot-spots (211 farmers tilling 205.75 ha.)farmers tilling 205.75 ha.)

Agri sector needs Agri sector needs preparedness and adaptation preparedness and adaptation measures based on its measures based on its vulnerabilities and seasonalities vulnerabilities and seasonalities and enhancing its economic and enhancing its economic base opportunities for the citybase opportunities for the city

Rice Variety/Breed Resiliency Type

IR 64PSB Rc18PSB Rc 76HIR 42

Adaptable to excessive rain water and flooding. Also classified as tall varieties.

PSB Rc16PSB Rc24PSB Rc70UPL Ri7UPL Ri5

Less water/drought, dry seeded varieties and also suitable for upland and rainfed type of farming.

PSB Rc8PSb Rc6

Short stand varieties, more resilient to strong winds

Findings, Implications and ChallengesFindings, Implications and Challenges

Vulnerable fishing Vulnerable fishing communities are the ones communities are the ones using conventional fishing using conventional fishing and the green mussel and the green mussel producersproducers

There are 1,291 fisherfolks There are 1,291 fisherfolks and 211 fish vendors in the and 211 fish vendors in the 9 hot-spot areas 9 hot-spot areas

Need to develop Need to develop complementing and complementing and adaptive livelihood adaptive livelihood activities to reduce their activities to reduce their vulnerabilityvulnerability

THANK YOU VERY MUCH!THANK YOU VERY MUCH!