Sony Pictures Presentation: Ghostbusters DVD Forecast
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Transcript of Sony Pictures Presentation: Ghostbusters DVD Forecast
SONY PICTURES ENTERTAINMENT
FUTURE DEMAND OF DVDS: GHOSTBUSTERS (2016) THE MOVIE
AUGUST 9, 2016
OVERVIEW• DATA RETRIEVAL AND METRICS• CONSUMER SPENDING• TOP MOVIES RELEASED BY SONY PICTURES• TRENDS• FRANCHISE RECORDS AND ANALYSIS• GHOSTBUSTERS (2016) INSIGHT
DATA• CONSISTS OF MOVIES RELEASED BY SONY PICTURES (SP)• RETRIEVED FROM WWW.THENUMBERS.COM ON 08/04/16• RETRIEVED FROM WWW.BOXOFFICEMOJO.CM ON 08/04/16• DATE RANGE: 1/1/2007 – 8/4/2016• PRIMARY METRICS
• RELEASE DATE• GENRE• TOTAL U.S. DOMESTIC MOVIE GROSS
• DVD SALES & REVENUE FOR MOVIES ONLY WITHIN TOP 100 LIST OF EACH YEAR
CONSUMER SPENDING ON DVDS• WITHIN THE LAST 10 YEARS, 88 OUT OF 195 MOVIES RELEASED BY SP
REACHED THE TOP 100 DVD SALES AT LEAST ONCE WITHIN THEIR DVD RELEASE YEAR
• OVER $2B IN SALES AND 120M IN UNITS SOLD WITH AN AVERAGE PRICE SOLD AT $16.44
• THE COMEDIC GENRE HAS THE SECOND HIGHEST DVD SALES AT $385M, TRAILING ACTION WITH $468M
• INDICATES A POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR GHOSTBUSTERS
SEASONAL SALES• IF DVDS WERE TO BE RELEASED
WITHIN 3 MONTHS AFTER THE DEBUT OF THE FILM, SALES WOULD LAND IN FALL (2ND HIGHEST SEASON)
• POTENTIAL MEDIUM – HIGH SALES
• AVERAGE OF 800K UNITS BEING SOLD FOR COMEDY MOVIES FOR MOVIES RELEASED IN JULY
Fall Spring Summer Winter $-
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
Seasonal RevenueMovie Gross DVD Sales
TOP 10% GROSSED MOVIES• MANY OF THE TOP
MOVIES RELEASED HAVE SEQUELS (NOT ORIGINAL) WITH AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE DVD SALES TOTAL OF $25M
• AN AVERAGE COMEDIC DVD PRICE IS ABOUT $15.53 WHICH IS THE LOWEST AMONGST THE GENRES
Movies Units Sold Movie Gross DVD Sales DVD Sales to Movie Ratio
Spider-Man 3 6,845,349 $336,530,303 $114,754,483 34%Skyfall 2,668,577 $304,360,277 $45,182,660 15%The Amazing Spider-Man 1,828,251 $262,030,663 $31,851,414 12%Hancock 4,575,950 $227,946,274 $78,457,204 34%The Amazing Spider-Man 2 1,147,588 $202,853,933 $19,465,333 10%Spectre 771,197 $200,074,175 $11,121,082 6%22 Jump Street 724,671 $191,719,337 $11,850,245 6%Men in Black 3 1,468,196 $179,020,854 $24,581,395 14%The Karate Kid 2,789,436 $176,591,618 $46,553,046 26%Hotel Transylvania 2 998,654 $169,700,110 $15,787,799 9%Quantum of Solace 2,674,945 $169,368,427 $44,413,685 26%2012 2,918,775 $166,112,167 $50,647,830 30%Grown Ups 2,226,831 $162,001,186 $37,693,332 23%American Hustle 547,504 $150,117,807 $8,628,374 6%Hotel Transylvania 213,035 $148,313,048 $2,048,218 1%Paul Blart: Mall Cop 3,429,843 $146,336,178 $51,628,876 35%The Smurfs 1,666,078 $142,614,158 $28,576,631 20%21 Jump Street 2,000,226 $138,447,667 $33,699,339 24%Grown Ups 2 949,853 $133,668,525 $16,327,007 12%
Grand Total
40,444,95
9
$3,607,806,70
7 $673,267,953 19%
Spider-
Man 3
Skyfal
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Hanco
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The A
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Spectr
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22 Ju
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Men in
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The K
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Kid
Hotel T
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Quantu
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Grown U
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America
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Hotel T
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Paul B
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all C
op
The S
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21 Ju
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Grown U
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$-
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Consumer Spending on Top 10% Grossed Movies to DVD Sales
DVD Sales Movie Gross Units Sold
Gro
ss R
even
ue
Uni
ts S
old
TOP 10% GROSSED MOVIES (CONT.)
FRANCHISE BOX OFFICE COMPARISON
U.S. DOMESTIC COMPARISON• GHOSTBUSTERS (GB) 2016 IS
BEING PLAYED AT ALMOST 3X THE AMOUNT OF THEATERS THAN THE ORIGINAL
• THE ORIGINAL MOVIE HAD BROKEN RECORDS DURING THE TIME OF ITS RELEASE MAKING IT A POPULAR MOVIE TO WATCH
• NUMBERS FOR GB 2016 HAVE NOT BEEN ANYWHERE NEAR THE TOP RANKS FOR POPULARITY
POPULARITY COMPARISON1984 vs. 2016
GHOSTBUSTERS (2016)• HIGHLIGHTS
• OUT SINCE JULY 15, 2016• CURRENT BOX OFFICE SALES: $109M• GENRE: COMEDY• EXPECTED DVD RELEASE: FALL
• FALL HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST DVD SALES RATE • COMEDY HAS ONE OF THE LOWEST PRICING WITH ABOUT $15 PER DVD• AVERAGE UNITS SOLD THAT FALL WITH A SIMILAR CRITERIA AS
GHOSTBUSTER SELL ABOUT 850K AVERAGE
PROS & CONS• THE MOVIE CAN BE A HIT OR MISS BECAUSE OF ITS PAST HISTORY
• CONS• HAS BEEN PRODUCED BEFORE (UNORIGINAL)• AUDIENCES WILL KNOW THE PLOT AS IT MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST ONES
• PROS• NEW DIGITAL EFFECTS TO ATTRACT A YOUNGER AUDIENCE• ALSO HAS AN OLDER GENERATION OF FANS BECAUSE OF ITS PAST MOVIES• MOVIE IS RELEASED DURING THE BEST SEASON FOR MOVIES
FORECAST
• ‘SIMILAR MOVIES’ AVG. DVD SALES / AVG. TOTAL GROSS = 13%• FOLLOWING THE COMEDIC MOVIE TREND, USING 13% FOR THE FIRST FORECAST
WITH A LOWERED PRICE OF $14.99 AS THE GENRE PRODUCES ONE OF THE LEAST EXPENSIVE DVDS
• IF BOX OFFICE NUMBERS WERE ABOVE $200M, THE RATIO HAS BEEN INCREASED ABOVE AVERAGE
Comparison Avg. Total Gross Avg. DVD Sales
Avg. Units Sold
Avg. Avg Price per DVD
Avg. DVD Sales
Avg. Units Sold
Avg. Avg Price per DVD
Similar Movies $92,210,498.80
$12,683,563.00
801,213 $15.69
Ghostbusters (2016) $109,624,118.00
$19,500,000.
00 1,300,867 $14.99
$30,000,000.
00 2,001,334 $14.99
Current If Box Office $150M < x < $200M Forecast If Box Office > $200M Forecast
ANALYSIS• FOLLOWING THE BOX OFFICE TREND, IF TICKET SALES WERE TO REACH
CLOSE TO $200M, DVDS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF REACHING OVER 1.5M IN UNITS DEMANDED
• IF BOX OFFICE TREND REMAINS SUB $150M, WE SEE A TREND OF THE DVD SALES WITH A RANGE OF 800K – 1.3M (LARGE FORECASTING ERROR)
• ALTHOUGH FORECASTS ARE NEVER COMPLETELY ACCURATE, WE INCLUDE ANY OTHER QUALITATIVE VARIABLES THAT MAY BE OVERLOOKED SUCH AS NOSTALGIA
• GHOSTBUSTERS HAS AN INTRINSIC VALUE OF IT BEING A NOSTALGIC MOVIE FOR ADULTS WHO WERE TEENS IN THE 1980S – 1990S
• IF THE AGE GROUP IS NOW IN THEIR 30 – 40S, WE CAN EXPECT A SMALL % INCREASE IN SALES COMPARED TO NEW MOVIES WITH NO PAST BACKGROUND
FINAL THOUGHTS• OVERVIEW OF MOVIES RELEASED BY SONY PICTURES• GLANCE AT THE GHOSTBUSTERS SAGA• DEMAND OF DVDS
• 800K – 1.3M UNITS NEEDED FOR LOW MOVIE SALES ($150M > X)• 1.5M+ UNITS NEEDED FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MOVIE SALES ($200M < X)
• QUESTIONS