Some thoughts on SWOT water resources applications Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and...
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Transcript of Some thoughts on SWOT water resources applications Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and...
Some thoughts on SWOT water resources applications
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Washington
WaTER/SWOT SWG meetingParis
February 1, 2008
What are the challenges in global water management?
• Population growth and lifestyle change, leading to increased water demand
• Transboundary conflicts
• Environmental change–Land Cover–Climate
Forest/Woodland
Shrubland/grassland
Cropland
1990s land cover (U MD) Global Potential Vegetation (Ramankutty and Foley)
Uruguay River basin land cover change – potential vegetation vs 1990s
Qori Kalis Glacier, Peru 1978 and 2002. Visual courtesy of Lonnie Thompson, from Barnett et al (Nature, 2005)
Impacts of reservoirs on the water cycle?
~1900
2000
Construction of dams has vastly altered the water cycle by:•Altering the seasonal cycle, and annual amount of discharge (6 major global rivers, including the Colorado, no longer flow at their mouths)
•Increasing the time of travel through the channel system
•Changing the quality of rivers, and constituents and physical characteristics of continental river discharge
•Transporting water within and between rivers basins, and altering its partitioning (usually meaning increased evapotranspiration)
Some examples
Regulated Flow
Historic Naturalized Flow
Estimated Range of Naturalized FlowWith 2040’s Warming
Figure 1: mean seasonal hydrographs of the Columbia River prior to (blue) and after the completion of reservoirs that now have storage capacity equal to about one-third of the river’s mean annual flow (red), and the projected range of impacts on naturalized flows predicted to result from a range of global warming scenarios over the next century. Climate change scenarios IPCC Data and Distribution Center, hydrologic simulations courtesy of A. Hamlet, University of Washington.
Columbia River at the Dalles, OR
Opportunities
• Time series (in near-real time) of elevation, and storage (utilizing surface area as well as stage) of major global reservoirs (note ~2500 in ICOLD data set of large global dams, but ~80,000 in U.S. Army COE data base for U.S. reservoirs
Action: evaluate set of global reservoirs for which such a data set would be feasible (considering surrounding topography, etc.), and evaluate potential for developing storage/elevation relationships over the mission duration
• Time series (in near-real time) of inflow (and/or outflow) to selected major global reservoirs
Action: Evaluate feasibility, number, location
Evolving potential for global real-time drought characterization (and prediction) – is there an analogous potential for reservoir storage?
Visual courtesy Eric Wood, Princeton University
• Policy analysis of implications of near-real time reservoir storage data on management of transboundary rivers
Action: need someone to take this on
• Demonstration project for large river flooding?
– Most property damage and loss of life comes from large river (and coastal) flooding (as opposed to flash floods). WaTER flood extent and altimetry should provide basis for updating (via data assimilation) flood forecast models
– Action: Evaluate feasibility and mechanism (problem: there’s always a flood somewhere, but we don’t know where in advance). Possibly partner with a global forecast center?