Some Thoughts on Energy

Roger X. Lenard

Overview

• Is there really an oil shortage? – Who has the greatest oil reserves in the world?

• How much do we import?• Are renewables the answer to our energy

problems?• What about AGW?

Substantial Deposits In CONUS

The US shale oil reserves contain 2-6 Trillion barrels of recoverable oilThis is more than all other countries’ reservesNew processes make it very tractable to recoverCongress has tied up the exploitation of these reserves

The North Dakota Bakken Field

North Dakota is boom-countryBakken field estimates 4.3-400Billion barrels of oilEasily recoverableProduction increasing daily

North Slope OilReserve estimates 10-16 Billion bblCongressionally off limitsTakes about 7 years to productionWe don’t have an oil shortage in USWe have an intelligence shortage inWashington DC

US Most Likely reserves

• ~3 T bbl in shale recoverable particularly with RF-CFprocesses• >100 B bbls in Bakken• 16 B bbl in North slope• 100 B bbl offshore (?)• 3.2T bbl of proven reserves• We import 13.4 M bbls/day = $1.4 B/day going to dictators

and thugs who don’t like us• How hard is this to figure out?

The Myth of Renewables

• Renewables are fine except that they are: Expensive, intermittent, and unreliable – other than that, they’re fine

• “The wind doesn’t always blow and the sun• doesn’t always shine”• Large hourly fluctuations in wind output (up to• 100% per hour) places tremendous stress on generation

systems• Wind almost ideally unsuited seasonally 2008 Texas got 8% of

expected wind – expected 1274 MW a complete bust • Need to keep dispatchable power (coal plants) running to

compensate for large fluctuations huge costs

Air Force Experience with Alternative Energy

• Nellis AFB is nation’s largest PV installation

• Provides ~25% of the base’s power

• Saves ~1% of annual power bill

• ROI is negative• Typical PV

efficiency is 11%• New technologies

>h at greater cost• Little net benefit

Typical PV installation costs vary• CA costs ~ $9.45/Watt• NM Costs ~ $7.50/Watt• Cost/kW-hr ~3-3.3¢/kW—hr/$/W• ~21-30¢/kW-hr installed• Battery storage ~3X more• Anticipated cost decreases not yet materialized

Wind: Zero to Negative Correlation Supply-Demand

The Renewable Energy Fraud

• Home and commercial renewable energy systems carry a 30% federal income tax credit

• Suppose you are rich and buy a 20 kW system for $100,000• The utility is forced to buy excess power from you for a premium price

(particularly in CA)• You get a $30,000 tax credit, and because you are rich, this means $30,000

in your pocket• You can depreciate the rest of 20 years – another $3,500/yr• The utility cost basis goes up so it raises electricity prices to the middle

and lower class• The middle and lower class pay higher taxes to support the rich• Don’t believe anything about the administration being for the poor –they-

are definitely for the rich

The AGW Fraud

• First, the most important GHG is water vapor and clouds• CO2 is about 20% of GHG effect, water vapor 50% and clouds

25%• Other molecules such as methane are thousands of times

more powerful GHGs than CO2

• So what do the global warmers claim – that CO2 is a longer lived molecule because its turn-over time is long compared to water – it’s the total amount, not the lifetime

• The reality is that water vapor in the atmosphere can be relatively constant, and stratospheric water vapor is very important

• That’s why global temperatures are actually falling – see charts

Recent Global Warming has NEGATIVE correlation with CO2

(two sources of the best data)

Global Temperatures Real vs. Fake

Real Data

IPCC ManipulatedFake Data: The MWPhas disappearedto provide “hockeystick” temperaturerise

Where did the temperatureGo?

Why Would the IPCC Manipulate the Data?

• It has nothing to do with protecting the environment• Nearly impossible to find one without bias

– 1. Climatologist; Academia or Government.– 2. Climatologist or spokesperson; Oil/coal/etc industry.– 3. Politician, Mainstream Media, Lawyer, Hollywood– 4. Those who plan to profit from the crisis.– 5. Those who demand a Socialist society.– 6. Those who fear expansion of Government control.– 7. Global Governance foreigners (UN and America’s other global

adversaries).– 8. Meteorologists

• My opinion: Use the CO2 scare to control energy• Once you control energy, you control everything• It’s not the environment, it’s money and power and control!

CO2 is Plant Food – Not a Pollutant!

The Solution – More Nukes

If you’re concerned about GCCBuild more nukesReduce time and cost of licensingCheap power: production costs ~2¢

Summary

• The US has the greatest natural resources in energy of anywhere in the world

• These are not technically inaccessible – the are politically inaccessible

• We have trillions of barrels of oil either in liquid form (ANWR, deep water drilling) or in shale deposits

• Technologies exist to safely recover it• We do not have a shortage of oil – we do have a shortage of brains

and guts in Washington• Renewables are intermittent, unreliable and expensive – they are a

tax-dodge for the wealthy on the back of the middle class• Nukes are good and there are new approaches starting to appear• Global Warming is a fraud