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Transcript of Soldani 5 g tth and healthcare_vtc_spring_2017
1 © Nokia 2017 Customer Confidential
5G to the Home and for HealthcareVTC Spring 2017
5th June, 2017
Dr. David Soldani- Head of 5G Technology, e2e, Global, Nokia- Industry Professor, UTS, Australia
2 © Nokia 2016
Application and 5G requirements
5G DEPLOYMENT AREAS
Use cases Application description 5G requirements
In Vehicle Infotainment
Video-driven mass infotainment inside fast moving public and private vehicles
Increased capacity (10/3 Gbps DL/UL) Lower latency for AR/ VR (< 5-10ms)
Connected Vehicles
Truck platooning as an entry point into autonomous driving solutions
Ultra-low-latency and high reliability for extreme safety / security
5G hot spots (overlay)
Virtual Reality streaming from event onto user devices on site at large scale
Ultra-High throughput 1-2Gbps; lower latency (<10 ms) required for AR/VR; very high capacity (>500 Users/cell)
5G to homeFixed Wireless Access to homes (FWA) with low fiber penetration via 5G
Fiber-like speeds to multiple 10s of households from one site
Wireless Robotic Platforms
Robots for Logistic, Cleaning, Monitoring, Manufacturing (Industry 4.0) and Surgery
Ultra-reliable (failure rate <10−7) low E2E latency communication (5-25 ms)
UAV Traffic Management
Ultra-low-latency and high reliability for safety/security. Increased uplink capacity (10 Gbps UL)
E2E fleet management for delivery drones: Traffic Management for UAV (TMUAV)
Imm
ers
ive
an
d i
nte
racti
ve
exp
eri
en
ce
Mach
ine
(T
ruck/R
ob
ot/
Dro
ne
)
as a
Se
rve
3 © Nokia 2016
Smart City Applications and Requirements
5G DEPLOYMENT AREAS
Use cases Application description 5G requirements
Fleet mgmt. & Remote Vehicle monitoring
Tracking of fleet vehicles, including real time remote vehicle diagnostics, location, driver behavior, etc.
Low Tput, Low to Medium Latency
Connected Emergency Vehicles
Embarked mobile tele-medicine for remote/nomadic diagnostics, access to patient files, etc.
High QoS via enhanced Tput for 2-way video (~10-20Mbps UL &
DL) ; Very-low-latency and high reliability for safety
Mobile / Static Video Surveillance
High resolution UL camera video surveillance, remote control (zoom, pan, etc.). Includes offender identification, Missing Person, etc.
Very-High UL Tput and Overall Capacity, driven by camera resolution & units / cell (e.g. 15-20Mbps per camera).
Very Low latency for high resolution offender identification
Autonomous Driving Assistance
Real Time support for Assisted Driving – traffic indications, warnings, map updates, etc.
High Tput DL in high density traffic scenarios (~10Mbps / vehicle); Increased location positioning accuracy
Emergency Responder (ER) Support
Combined with surveillance, video feed and tactical information available to Emergency Responders
High DL Tput (~15Mbps / responder), with high reliability and low E2E latency communication (<50ms e2e)
Remote Out-patient Monitoring
Very-low-latency and high reliability for safety/security; increased UL Tput (~20Mbps)
Remote patient monitoring for out-of-premises care, includes wearables, tele-medicine
Co
nn
ecte
d C
ars
He
alt
h
Mo
nit
ori
ng
Pu
blic s
afe
ty
Vehicle to Pedestrian Notification / Warnings
Pedestrian awareness of vehicles (e.g. intersections)
High density (e.g. intersections), Low V-to-P latency (< e2e 100ms)
This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals.
4
Confidential
© Nokia 2016
5G deployment areas and use cases requiring 4.5, 4.9 and 5G connectivity5G DEPLOYMENT AREAS
5G EXCLUSIVE USE CASES
5 © Nokia 2016 - confidential
Business case
• 5G-to-home
• Healthcare
This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals.
7
Confidential
© Nokia 2016
5G -TO-HOME
100 Mbps DL BW/household sustained
Height 9m
mmWave
One access antennaper household(indoor or outdoor) and WiFi distribution inside the home
Feeder route
Fiber distribution point
mmWave
Distribution
Main difference with Fiber ttH is the last +/-100m
5GttH or Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) use case – Massive Broadband to the Home
cmWave and mmWave
radios (possibly with
Massive MIMO)
5G to the Home
This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals.
8
Confidential
© Nokia 2016
Detailed business model logic 5G-TO-HOME - BUSINESS MODEL 5G to the Home
9 © Nokia 2016
Assumptions on the revenue calculation (1/2)5G-TO-HOME - BUSINESS MODEL
Chosen Option
5G to the Home
Key revenue assumptions
OptionsAssumptions Rationale
Addressable households• We used 100k households in the
example, but this has impact only on absolute numbers, not in payback
1
Fiber households, % • Based on historical data
%
1 5 10 2015
Operator market share• Based on the historical data of 4G
market share2
%
1 10 20 4030
Take rate of the service• Based on the historical data of 4G
market share3
%
1 10 20 4030
Current year roll-out distribution % • Based on the 3GPP 5G release
availability in late 2018 and SoCavailabilities
• 2019 - 10%• 2020 - 15%• 2021-25 - 15%
4
10 © Nokia 2016
Assumptions on the revenue calculation (2/2)5G-TO-HOME - BUSINESS MODEL 5G to the Home
Key revenue assumptions
OptionsAssumptions Rationale
Households per site • Can be specified in the model5
Households/site
10 20 30 5040
Average ARPU per HH
• Price per SLA based on the current ARPU level in the European market; Traffic mix estimate
• Average ARPU 51.5€• Average SLA of 285 Mbps/HH
6
SLA (Mbps) ARPU/month Traffic Mix
50 20€ 10%
100 30€ 20%
200 40€ 40%
300 50€ 10%
500 75€ 10%
1 000 150€ 10%
Chosen Option
Capacity per cell promised
• 3 Cells/site assumed• Net tput per cell based on 2.5
overbooking ratio • Nokia Operator release (5G TF17A)
promises 5Gbps/cell max Tput• First 3GPP release content not
available – assumption: Tput > 5 Gbps
N. households/site
Average SLA/ Cell
2.5 overbooking
10 0.95 Gbps 0.38 Gbps
20 1.9 Gbps 0.76 Gbps
30 2.85 Gbps 1.14 Gbps
40 3.8 Gbps 1.52 Gbps
50 4.75 Gbps 1.9 Gbps
60 5.7 Gbps 2.28 Gbps
7
5G 200 MHz
500 MHz 2000 MHz4.0 Gbps 4x4 MIMO 10 Gbps 4x4 MIMO 20 Gbps 2x2 MIMO
/10 per cell
11 © Nokia 2016
Business case is highly sensitive to number of HHs/site and ARPU5G-TO-HOME – BUSINESS MODEL 5G to the Home
12 © Nokia 2016 - confidential
Business case
• 5G-to-home
• Healthcare
This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals.
14
Confidential
© Nokia 2016
Wireless Tele Surgery (WTS): A surgeon in one location performing an operation in another with the aid of a robot
HEALTHCARE Connected Healthcare
This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals.
15
Confidential
© Nokia 2016
100 ms (latency) / 30-50 Mb/s
(encoded bit rate) / 10-7 (failure rate)
< 25 ms (latency) / 30-50 Mb/s
(encoded bit rate) / 10-7 (failure rate)
5 ms (latency) / 1 Gb/s (encoded
bit rate) / 10-7 (failure rate)
Target functional architecture/ technology
Connected Health and Tele Care - Wireless Tele Surgery (WTS) T
ech
no
log
ica
l ju
stif
ica
tio
n a
nd
sp
eci
fica
tio
n
Haptic
Holo
gra
phic
Audio
/Vis
ual
Tactile and light field support engine – cloud service intelligence
Audio/Video
Audio/Commands
Core
Network
Audio/Video
Audio/Commands
Audio/Commands
Audio/Video +
Haptic feedback
Audio/Commands
Audio/Video +
Haptic feedback
Audio
Light field (multi views) +
Pressure field (ultrasound)
Pressure field
Light field (multi views) +
Pressure field (ultrasound)
Audio
Pressure probe
Ensuring SLA
MEC
Dedicated slice
Public 5G option
Connected Healthcare
17 © Nokia 2016
Robotics with Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Edge Cloud
WIRELESS ROBOTIC PLATFORMS
• Use Cases: Logistic, Cleaning, Monitoring and Companion• No wireline connectivity between the mobile robotic platform and reasoning systems
Connected Healthcare
This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals.
18
Confidential
© Nokia 2016
Robotics with Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Edge CloudWIRELESS ROBOTIC PLATFORMS Connected Healthcare
This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals.
19
Confidential
© Nokia 2016
Parameters for the Operator and Care Service Provider business case calculations
• From 2020 to 2029, the number of service robots in
hospices, residential floors and homes is expected to
grow year on year of 12%, 10% and 33%,
respectively
• In the operator case, we assumed a Discount Rate
(PV) of 8%, an EBIDTA margin of 33%, an ARPU
decline multiplier of 2%, an equipment price erosion
multiplier of 8%, and an OPEX erosion multiplier of
1%
• In the case of Care Provider, the corresponding cash
flow (PV) in 2020-29 is derived assuming a Discount
Rate (PV) of 8% and an EBIDTA Margin of 40%
5G for Telecare
20 © Nokia 2016
Wireless Service Robot (WSR) implications for ID coverage HEALTHCARE – BUSINESS MODEL 5G for Telecare
Robots
replacement
21 © Nokia 2016
Summary
• 5G fundamental enabling technology for immersive and interactive experience and machine as a service
• Operator business case: • Infotainment: Straightforward if 5G/LTE ARPU increases as 4G/3G did
• Hotspots: Straightforward with 5+ events/month
• 5G to the Home: Requires Average ARPU >40€ (Premium) and 30+HH/site
• Platooning: Needs partnership with OEM and logistic companies, and two digits share of savings to the operator
• Wireless service robots: B2B is where a RoI business can be easily made, as long as the price a month to lease the robot is much cheaper than hiring people
• Smooth evolution from PoC, 5GTF (KT/VzW), to 3GPP NSA/SA R15/16 compliant offering with Nokia AirScale/AirFrame 5G ready products
22 © Nokia 2017 Customer Confidential
© 2017 Nokia23
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