Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006
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Transcript of Solar_Launch Applied Materials 2006
External Use
Applied Materials Going Solar!New York5 September 2006
External Use2
Safe Harbor StatementThis presentation contains forward-looking statements, including those relating to Applied’s business strategy, growth opportunities, served available market, strategy to reduce solar production costs, operational efficiencies, financial performance, product capabilities and technology leadership; customers’ plans; and the solar technology roadmap and industry outlook. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements, including without limitation: (a) broadening of demand in the solar industry, which is subject to many factors, including global economic conditions, the cost-effectiveness and performance of photovoltaic (PV) products compared to conventional and other alternative energy sources, technological innovations, availability and cost of raw materials such as silicon, evolving industry standards, changing customer and end-user requirements, government subsidies and economic incentives for alternative energy development, and geopolitical uncertainties; (b) customers’ capacity requirements and timing, rate and amount of capital spending for new technology; (c) Applied’s ability to: accurately predict the characteristics of, and capitalize on opportunities in, the emerging PV market; successfully adapt its existing products and develop and commercialize new products that enable increased solar cell efficiency and performance at a lower cost; recruit, incent and retain key employees; obtain and protect intellectual property rights in key technologies; develop, deliver and support a broad range of products; integrate acquired businesses; maintain effective cost controls and timely align the company’s cost structure with business conditions, and effectively manage its resources and production capability; and other risks described in Applied Materials’ SEC filings. All forward-looking statements are based on management’s estimates, projections and assumptions as of September 5, 2006 and Applied undertakes no obligation to update any such statements.
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Applied Materials’ Strategy
Extend Leadership in Core Business
Grow in New Markets
Deliver World-Class Performance
Differentiated systems and services Extend position in memory business
Use core nanomanufacturing and global strengthsExpand into related high growth opportunities
Enhance operational andfinancial efficienciesDrive performance initiatives to optimize financial results
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Applied’s Available Opportunity
Source: Gartner DataQuest, Applied MaterialsNote: New Markets includes Applied Films
2004 2005 2006E 2007F 2008F
New Markets
Flat Panel DisplaySilicon System & Service
New CoreNew Core: +$15B: +$15B
2.0X
‘06 - ’081.5X
$2.5B$2.5B$4B$4B
’08 SAM$41.5B
1.3X$35B$35B
2005 2005 –– $20B$20B
Opportunity Expected to Double from ‘05 to ‘08 with CAGR ~25%
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Solar and other emerging marketsNew Markets
Driving down costs, enabling adoptionFlat PanelDisplay
Extend Core Business Differentiated Products for Nanomanufacturing Technology™
Drive Moore’s LawPerformanceEnhancements
Amplify customers’ productivityFab ProductivityEnhancements
Deliver World-Class Performance
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Solar Electric is Fundamentally Familiar
Higher efficiency, area constrained
Silicon Wafers
Lower efficiency, cost constrained
Thin Film on Glass
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Solar Learning Curve Dynamics
* 2002 DollarsSource: Navigant Consulting
Goal: Increase Rate of Learning
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1E5
Historical
Projected1980$21.83/W
1985$11.20/W
1990$6.07/W 1995
$4.90/W 2000$3.89/W
2005$2.70/WM
odul
e C
ost (
$/W
)*
INDUSTRY ACCELERATION
Cumulative Volume (MW)
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1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
2000 2010F 2020F 2030F 2040F
TWh1 /Y
ear
Solar Electricity Production (TWh)
Total Electricity Production
10% Total
1% Total
1 TWh = Terrawatt-hour = 1 Billion Kilowatt-hours2 GWp = Gigawatt-peak, assuming average hours or sunshine Source: Solar Generation and IEA-PVPS
World Electricity Production Forecast(2000 – 2040)
US
= Consumption in labeled country / state
China
India
California 1 Million Roofs
Est. CAGR% ’00 - ’40Total Electricity Production 2.5%
(increase of 25,400TWh)Solar Energy Production 21%
(increase of 6,000TWh) ~5
~50
~500
~5,000
Equivalent Solar GWp2
Current solar capacity
Potential of Existing US Rooftops (GWp)
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Solar PV Projections - Market Analysts
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F
PV S
hipm
ents
(MW
p)
Historical
Navigant, March 2006 - Low
CLSA (Solar Silicon Conf), 2006
PV Solar Supply Growth
Source: Compilation analysts reports, Applied Materials, Photon International
Driving Faster Growth
ProductivityCostInfrastructure
Est. CAGR 25 - 45%
Top ten solar producers to add 480MW in 2006E
– 85% of all new capacity added– 25% of total resulting capacity worldwide
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R&D + Financial
Resources
Reputation +
Experience
World Class Capabilities
The Applied Materials Difference
Providing Leadership in Accelerating Solar Learning Curve
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VIDEO:"Learn about Solar Technology"
hosted by Charles Gay
14
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Technology Conditions – Why Solar Now?
SCALE OF MANUFACTURING
PRODUCT COST REDUCTION– Cost per m2
Glass/display– Size– Process
– Watts per m2
Materials scienceYield & controlIC know-how & leverage
THIN FILM OPPORTUNITY– Polysilicon supply constraint
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Cumulative Volume (MW)
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1E5
Historical
Projected1980
$21.83/W
1985$11.20/W
1990$6.07/W 1995
$4.90/W 2000$3.89/W
2005$2.70/WM
odul
e C
ost (
$/W
)*
Scale to Enable Learning Curve
* 2002 DollarsSource: Navigant Consulting
Production line size (Megawatts per Year):
Lines Per Factory
0.5(1980)
2
5(2000)
3
50(2005)
4
100(2010)
10
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Technology Conditions – Why Solar Now?
SCALE OF MANUFACTURING
PRODUCT COST REDUCTION– Cost per m2
Glass/display– Size– Process
– Watts per m2
Materials scienceYield & controlIC know-how & leverage
THIN FILM OPPORTUNITY– Polysilicon supply constraint
=$ Production / WattCost / m2
Watt / m2
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Experience Reducing Unit Production Costs
0
2
4
6
8
10
Gen 4 Gen 5 Gen 6 Gen 7 Gen 8
Cos
t / A
rea
(rela
tive)
Substrate Area Cost/Area
Experience from LCD Manufacturing
Cost / m2
Watt / m2
0.7m2
1.4m2
2.8m2
4.4m2
5.2m2
Gen 8: 60nm Uniformity Over 4x1018nm2 Area at 50 Substrates per Hour
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Cell Efficiency
Prod
uctio
n Q
uant
ity
Experience Enhancing Product Performance and Process Consistency
Cost / m2
Watt / m2
c-Si
Applied Materials technology
Conventional approach
Tighter distribution and higher mean efficiency
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Thin Film
Experience Enhancing Product Performance and Process Consistency
Tandem JunctionIncreases voltage, collects more light, enhances stability
a-Si:H/μc-Si:H Cell Spectral Response
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
20
0
40
60
80
100
0
1
2
3
4
5
Num
ber o
f Sun
light
Pho
tons
(m-2
s-1m
icro
n-1) E
+19
Rel
ativ
e Ex
tern
al Q
uant
um E
ffici
ency
, % μc-Si:H junctiona-Si:H junction
AM 1.5 global spectrum
Wavelength, microns
Glass Substrate
Transparent Conductor
Amorphous Silicon
Microcrystalline Silicon
Back Contact
Cost / m2
Watt / m2
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Thin Film
Experience Enhancing Product Performance and Process Consistency
Cost / m2
Watt / m2
Enhanced light trapping increases
cell efficiency
Innovative technology improves product performance
Glass Substrate
Transparent Conductor
Amorphous Silicon
Microcrystalline Silicon
Back Contact
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Technology Conditions – Why Solar Now?
SCALE OF MANUFACTURING
PRODUCT COST REDUCTION– Cost per m2
Glass/display– Size– Process
– Watts per m2
Materials scienceYield & controlIC know-how & leverage
THIN FILM OPPORTUNITY– Polysilicon supply constraint
Polysilicon Supply and Demand
Source: Tor Hartmann, Solar Grade Silicon, 2005
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Delivering Compelling Photovoltaic Technology and Service Solutions
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Applied’s Capabilities
AKT50K PECVD
Large Area Platforms
ATON™
MULTIWEB™
Integration
Automation
Process Technology
Service & Support
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Crystalline Silicon: ATON SiN PVD
SiN: biggest ‘pain’ point for c-Si manufacturers
Flexible platform easily adaptable for production volumes from 25-100MW
Increase yield: uniform appearance and high efficiency
Wafer
Module
Wet Clean& Texture
Ion Doping & Diffusion
Passivation& ARC
Layer (SiN)
BackReflector
ContactMetals
Metrology &Inspection
Bin & Sort;Transfer toModule Mfg
• Insert picture of AKT PECVD
ATON
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Crystalline Silicon: New ATON Applications
Expand sequential applications including
– Back reflector– Contact metal
Enables large scale automation of a significant part of manufacturing line
• Insert picture of AKT PECVD
ATON
Wafer
Module
Wet Clean& Texture
Ion Doping & Diffusion
Passivation& ARC
Layer (SiN)
BackReflector
ContactMetals
Metrology &Inspection
Bin & Sort;Transfer toModule Mfg
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Thin Film Silicon: New Aristo™ PVD
Deposition of transparent conductors (TCO)
100+ Aristos shipped for TCO, leading LCD color filter market
High throughput in-line tool
Ultra-low particle contamination
• Insert picture of AKT PECVD
New Aristo
Glass Substrate
TCO
Amorphous Silicon
Back Contact
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Thin Film Silicon: AKT-PECVD System
Large area PECVD
500+ systems shipped for thin film silicon, leading LCD display market
High throughput cluster tool
Exceptional film uniformity over large areas
AKT50K PECVDGlass Substrate
TCO
Amorphous Silicon
Back Contact
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ATON
Thin Film Silicon: ATON PVD System
Deposition of back reflectors, metal contacts and transparent conductorsRecently introduced for solar, derived from heritage of 150+ glass coatersHigh throughput in-line tool for either glass or silicon substratesFlexible process architecture, scalable to 100MW
Glass Substrate
TCO
Amorphous Silicon
Back Contact
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Largest Microcrystalline Solar Panel Structure
Demonstrated 4 Times Larger Than Standard Solar Module (4.4m2)
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Roadmap
Now 2010F
TF-Si TCO, PECVD,
Contacts, Automation
TF-Si TCO, PECVD, Contacts
Automation, High Efficiency
c-Si SiN, Back Reflector,
Contacts, Surface Prep, Integrated Wiring, Adv Junctions, Automation
CIS Contacts, Absorber
OtherReal Time Feedback, Fab MIS, Metrology
c-Si SiN, Back Reflector,
Contacts
CIS Contacts
Note: Items listed in white will be new technologies and capabilities added by 2010
6% → 11% efficient
14% → 23% efficient
10% → 14% efficient
85% → 98% yield
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Fastest solar power companies
Applied Materials (US)BP (UK)
Carmanah (Canada)Conergy (Germany)
Ersol (Germany)Evergreen Solar (US)
First Solar (US)GT Solar (US)Hemlock (US)
Kyocera (Japan)
M.Setek (Japan)Motech (Taiwan)
Q-Cells (Germany)REC (Norway)Sanyo (Japan)Sharp (Japan)
SolarWorld (Germany)SunPower (US)Suntech (China)
Tokyuama (Japan)
Applied Materials: An Enabling Force
Source: Photon International, July 2006
32
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Fastest solar power companies
Applied Materials (US)BP (UK)
Carmanah (Canada)Conergy (Germany)
Ersol (Germany)Evergreen Solar (US)
First Solar (US)GT Solar (US)Hemlock (US)
Kyocera (Japan)
M.Setek (Japan)Motech (Taiwan)
Q-Cells (Germany)REC (Norway)Sanyo (Japan)Sharp (Japan)
SolarWorld (Germany)SunPower (US)Suntech (China)
Tokyuama (Japan)
Applied Materials: An Enabling Force
Source: Photon International, July 2006
“Reducing production cost per watt is what it’s all about. Having done this before in IC and LCD, we’re excited to see what Applied Materials can do in solar. Q-Cells and the Industry can benefit strongly from a player of the caliber and with the capabilities of Applied Materials. We are excited to be working with them” – Anton Milner
Chief Executive Officer - Q-Cells
“Looking at the growth opportunity ahead of us we’re going to have to scale to meaningful plant sizes and fast” – P.M. Pai
Chief Operating Officer - SunPower
“Like many in the industry we’ve been able to get to this point by creating our own machines to do the job. But this is not our core expertise … we’re looking forward to what Applied Materials can bring to the table” – Dr. Chris Eberspacher
VP Engineering - NanoSolar
“Applied Materials has been a great partner for us over the years. They have made the investment to support us wherever we need to be – new products, new generation fabs, and on-going service and support” – Cheng Yih Lin
Senior Vice President,Member of Executive Board - AUO
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Solar Product Business Group Footprint
Installed Systems
First Thin Film Si Sale - Q-Cells
Technology and Global Development Centers
Three of Top 10 Producers Already Customers
Major Producing Countries
JapanKoreaIndia
USGermanyBelgiumTaiwan
Applications
Cell technologies: c-Si, TF-Si, CiSProcesses: TCO, SiN, contact metals, semiconductor precursors, a-Si/µc-Si
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Applied Materials’ Solar Market Opportunity
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Current Solar Industry Landscape
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Motech
Suntech
BP Solar
Schott Solar
Deutsche Cell
Mitsubishi Electric
Sanyo
Kyocera
Q-Cells
Sharp
Solar Cell Production (MWp)
2006 Planned Capacity
2005 Actual Production
Thin Film Si Equipment Suppliers
Applied Materials, Leybold Optics, Ulvac, Unaxis, Von Ardenne
C-Si Equipment Suppliers
Applied Materials, Baccini, OTB, Centrotherm, GT Equipment, ManzAutomation, Roth & Rau, Schmid, Spire
Source: Photon International
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60
150
240
340
430
0
100
200
300
400
500
'06E '07F '08F '09F '10F
800920
1,200
1,450
1,860
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
'06E '07F '08F '09F '10F
Multiple Technologies Driving Industry Growth
c-Si Annual New Capacity (MW)
Est. CAGR = 23%
TF Annual New Capacity (MW)
Est. CAGR = 64%
Source: c-Si: Applied Materials analysis based on Solar Buzz, Maycock, customer forecastsTF: Applied Materials analysis based on Navigant 2006, customer forecasts
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0
1
2
3
4
'06E '07F '08F '09F '10F
$ B
Nc-Si + Thin Film PV Equipment Spending
(wafer, cell & module manufacturing equipment)
Significant and Growing Solar Market
Note: Based on forecast of 8.5 GW production output in FY10; there are significant service opportunities that are incremental to this TAMSource: Applied Materials analysis based on Navigant 2006, CLSA (Solar Silicon Conference) 2006, Solar Buzz 2006, Manufacturer forecasts
Est. CAGR = 28%
Total Available Market
Served Available Market
Est. CAGR = 150%
Forecast to Aggressively Increase Each Year
External Use38
Robust Equipment Solutions
Rapid Scale in
Manufacturing
Global Capability
An Industry in TransitionExponential Market Growth Will Be Enabled By
Production Cost
Reduction
Applied Materials is Uniquely Positioned to Enable the Solar Industry to Make these Transitions
38
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