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© Fraunhofer ISE
SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE TRANSFORMATION OF OUR ENERGY SYSTEM
Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and University of Freiburg, Germany Fraunhofer-Chile Solar Seminar Centro de Innovacion UC Anacleto Angelini Santiago, Chile, May 27, 2015
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Limited availability of fossil fuels
Fossil fuels get scarce
A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3rd Industrial Revolution!
© Fraunhofer ISE
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A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3rd Industrial Revolution!
Limited availability of fossil fuels
Danger of drastic climate change:
Global warming
The world gets warmer
© Fraunhofer ISE
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A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3rd Industrial Revolution!
Limited availability of fossil fuels
Danger of drastic climate change:
Global warming
Loss of climate stability
“Anthropocene”
Time before present present [kys]
For reasons unknown, the last ca. 10,000 ys were
extraordinary stable: “Holocene”
Temperature fluctuations in the last 100kys
© Fraunhofer ISE
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A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3rd Industrial Revolution!
Limited availability of fossil fuels
Danger of drastic climate change
Risk of nuclear disasters
Growing dependency on imports from politically unstable regions
New since recently:
Increasing economic opportunities!
Time before present present [kys]
For reasons unknown, the last ca. 10,000 ys were
extraordinary stable: “Holocene”
Temperature fluctuations in the last 100kys
© Fraunhofer ISE
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CO2 – free energy resources
Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, dangers during operation, final storage unsolved: no sustainable solution for the global energy problem!
© Fraunhofer ISE
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CO2 – free energy resources
Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, dangers during operation, final storage unsolved: no sustainable solution for the global energy problem
Clean coal technologies - require carbon sequestration and long-term storage, energy inefficient, may pose danger of accidental CO2 release
Wind – low cost, but: fluctuating production, suitable sites limited
Hydro - can be switched on instantaneously, suitable for storage, maximum production desirable, but: suitable sites limited
Biofuels - interesting as liquid fuel for traffic, but: low efficiency of photosynthesis, production energy intensive, competition with food plants
Geothermal - excellent where easily accessible (example: Iceland)
Solar energy (Photovoltaics, Solarthermal) - unlimited energy resource PV: continuous price reductions through innovation, savings of scale
© Fraunhofer ISE
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World EnergyRessources
2 – 6 per year
2010 World energy use: 16 TWy per year
COAL
Uranium
900 Total reserve
90-300 Total
Petroleum
240 Total
Natural Gas
215 Total
WIND
Waves 0.2-2 per year
60-120 per year
OTEC
Biomass
3 -11 per year
HYDRO 3 – 4 per year
TIDES
SOLAR
23,000 per year
Geothermal 0.3 – 2 per year
© R. Perez et al.
0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW
finite renewable
World Energy Ressources (TWyear)
© Fraunhofer ISE
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2 – 6 per year
2010 World energy use 16 TWy per year
COAL
Uranium
900 Total reserve
90-300 Total
Petroleum
310 Total
Natural Gas
330 Total
WIND 60-120 per year
OTEC
Biomass
3 -11 per year
HYDRO 3 – 4 per year
TIDES
SOLAR
23,000 per year
Geothermal 0.3 – 2 per year
© R. Perez et al.
0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW
finite renewable
Waves 0.2-2 per year
World Energy Ressources (TWyear)
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Cornerstones for the Transformation of our Energy System to efficient use of finally 100% renewable energy – Energy System 2.0
Energy efficiency: buildings, production, transport
Massive increase in renewable energies: photovoltaics, solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass...
Fast development of the electric grid: transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional
Small and large scale energy storage systems: electricity, hydrogen, methane, methanol, biogas, solar heat, hydro.....
Sustainable mobility as integral part of the energy system: electric mobility with batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Research for the Energy Transformation
Largest European Solar Energy Research Institute
about 1300 members of staff (incl. students)
18 % basic financing
82 % contract research , 24 % industry, 58 % public
€ 86.1 M budget (2014, incl. investments)
>10 % growth rate (until 2013)
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 12 Areas of Business
Energy Efficient Buildings
Silicon Photovoltaics
III-V and Concentrator Photovoltaics
Dye, Organic and Novel Solar Cells
Photovoltaic Modules and Power Plants
Solar Thermal Technology
Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology
Energy Efficient Power Electronics
Zero-Emission Mobility
Storage Technologies
System Integration and Grids – Electricity, Heat, Gas
Energy System Analysis
Foto
s ©
Fra
un
ho
fer
ISE
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Electricity generation from renewable energy Development in Germany 1990 – 2013
Year 2013 Total* 25.4%
152.6 TWh PV 4.7%
30 TWh 35.9 GW
Bio 8.0% 48 TWh
Wind 8.9%
53 TWh 34.7 GW
Hydro 3.5% 21 TWh
* Gross electricity demand
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Example: Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy Supply till 2050 in Germany
Strong decrease of heat demand from buildings (energy renovations, ‘zero-energy’ houses
Increase of combined-cycle heat/power plants
Thermal storage for heating and cooling
Coupling of electricity grid and gas pipelines through production of regenerative hydrogen and methan
Introduction of e-mobility with battery- and fuel cell powered cars
Use of liquid biofuels, especially for heavy trucks and air traffic
Key Features:
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Price Learning Curve of Solar Energy (c-Si Photovoltaics) - Driven by Innovation & Market Introduction! Preis über kumulierter Kapazität in GW
Learning Rate: Each time the cumulative c-Si PV production doubled, the price went down by 20 %
- by a factor of 10 in 25 years!
Solar Electricity Today: 8-10 ct/kWh in Germany, half in sun-rich countries!
Source: Navigant Consulting; EUPD PV module prices (since 2006), Graph: ISE 2014
© Fraunhofer ISE
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PV Market Growth (IEA 2014)
Source: IEA 2014
Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of cost-competitive, distributed energy
In 2050 between 4.000 and 30.000 GWp PV will be installed!
By 2015, less than 200 GWp have been installed!
We are just at the beginning of the global growth curve!
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio c-Si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product!
material quality
diffusion length base conductivity
device quality passivation of surfaces low series resistance light confinement
cell structures PERC: Passivated Emitter
and Rear Cell MWT: Metal Wrap Through IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back
Contact – Back Junction HJT: Hetero Junction Technology
Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC 2009
material quality
module efficiency
Industry
Standard
IBC-BJ
HJT
PERC
MWT- PERC
20%
19%
18%
17% 16%
15% 14%
21%
device quality
BC- HJT
© Fraunhofer ISE
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World Market Outlook: Experts are Optimistic Example Sarasin Bank, November 2010
market forecast (2010): 30 GWp in 2014, 110 GWp in 2020 annual growth rate: in the range of 20 % and 30 %
Newly installed (right)
Annual growth rate (left) Sou
rce:
Sar
asin
, So
lar
Stu
dy,
No
v 20
10
Gro
wth
rat
e
2014: ca. 45 GWp, 50 % above forecast!
Total new installations (right scale) Annual growth (left scale)
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Global PV Production Capacity and Installations
Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG
Outlook for the development of supply and demand in the global PV market.
Production Capacity
Installations
Excess Capacity
Mo
du
le C
ap
aci
ty
(GW
)
Exce
ss C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
)
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High-Efficiency III/V Based Triple-Junction Solar Cells
Slide: courtesy of F. Dimroth
© Fraunhofer ISE
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World Record Solar Energy Conversion Efficiency: 46 % for a Wafer-Bonded Four-Junction Solar Cell!
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Solar Thermal Systems Solar cooling and process heat for all sectors
Methodology:
Map the application potentials
Component testing of durability
Integration of solar thermal into processes
agro-industry: freezing, drying, fermentation, sterilization, washing, …
mining industry: e.g. leaching, electro-winning, water, …
Energy efficiency concepts
Results:
Affordable and flexible technology
Local supply chain and engineering (value and jobs)
Minimized technical and financial risks
Optimal business models
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Combined CSP-CPV power plant One of a number of concepts for ALMA: 1MW CPV, 1MW CSP-turbine, 18hrs storage, 24hrs stable elctricity Combination of solar generators:
CPV -> electricity supply for the day
CSP+Storage -> supply for the night
Results:
Yearly solar yield: 10.4 GWh
Operation hours: 8640 h
Cost of electricity: ca.14 $ct/kWh
Electricity from Diesel: >20 $ct/kWh!
© Fraunhofer ISE
24 © Fraunhofer ISE
Optimization of Germany’s future energy system based on hourly modeling
REMod-D
Renewable Energy Model – Deutschland
Electricity generation, storage and end-use
Fuels (including biomass and synthetic
fuels from RE)
Mobility (battery-electric,
hydrogen, conv. fuel mix)
Processes in industry and
tertiary sector
Heat (buildings,
incl. storage and heating networks)
Comprehensive analysis of the overall system
Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014
© Fraunhofer ISE
25 © Fraunhofer ISE
TWh
TraktionH2-Bedarf
45
11TWh
TWh39
TWh
14TWh
Einzelgebäude mit Sole-Wärmepumpe
Solarthermie
11
Solarthermie 8 Gebäude9
TWhel. WP Luft 43
TWh
TWh44
4
Einzelgebäude mit Gas-Wärmepumpe
13TWh
14 4
W-Speicher
GWth TWh 60 TWh
82TWh
220TWh
420
22 GWth TWh 103 GWh51 W-Speicher14el. WP Sole
Biomasse
TWh
0
TWh15
KWK-BHKW
Solarthermie 13
TWh
Strombedarf gesamt (ohne
Strom für Wärme und MIV)
375
TWhTWh
3
GWgas 0
220
0TWh
0Sabatier Methan-Sp.
H2-Speicher
7 GWth TWh
TWh 41
3
GWth
Gas-WP
W-Speicher25
20
40TWh
388 TWh
20 GWth TWh Wärmenetze mit GuD-KWK
7 GWth TWh
W-Speicher
TWh Wärmenetze mit BHKW-KWK
Wärmebedarf gesamt
TWh
26
TWh
TWh
217TWh
82
16TWh
GWel
TWh 23
4TWh
9 Pump-Sp-KW 7TWh
TWh
6TWh
GasturbineW-Speicher
Steink.-KW Braunk.-KW Öl-KW3 GW 0 GW5 GW 0 GW 7 GW
Atom-KWPV Wind On Wind Off Wasserkraft
112TWh
103TWh
147
Batterien24 GWh
GW 120 GW 32 GW143
TWh
5TWh 60 GWh TWh
TWh
Einzelgebäude mit Luft-Wärmepumpe
GWth
Gebäude8
TWh
7TWh 50
14
4 TWh
TWh
19 GWth TWh GWh
Einzelgebäude mit Gaskessel
TWhGaskessel 71 Gebäude
32 GWth
0
4
Gebäude59
0.0
TWh3734
Solarthermie 6 W-Speicher
Gebäude15
27 GWh
23TWh
TWh
TWh 173 GWh
3
TWh
ungenutzter Strom (Abregelung)
TWh0
TWh26
TWh12
TWh
TWh
5TWh
TWh
241 TWh
Gebäude4
87
TWh 6 TWh
Gebäude59
7 GWth TWh
3
TWh
WP zentral 20
KWK-GuD 2735 GWel TWh
20
60TWh
7
GW
Einzelgebäude mit Mini-BHKW
6 46
WP zentral 23
4
8TWh
TWh
Verkehr (ohne
Schienenverkehr/Strom)
Brennstoff-basierter Verkehr
Batterie-basierter Verkehr
Wasserstoff-basierter Verkehr
137
TWhTWh
TWhTWh
TWhTWhTWhTraktion gesamt
BrennstoffeTraktion
erneuerbare Energien primäre Stromerzeugung fossil-nukleare Energien
14 GWth TWh 56 GWh
86 TWhGeothermie 6 Gebäude
2 GWth
10
TWh
TWh108 TWh
57 TWh
0TWh
3TWh
TWh 173
Wärmenetze mit Tiefen-Geothermie
TWh
Brennstoffe
TWhErdgas 394
TWh
4
TWh22
TWh
Elektrolyse
8233 GWel
4
21TWh
0TWh
TWh 26
1 GW
GuD-KW
ungenutztWarmwasserRaumheizung290 TWh 98 TWh 2
Solarthermie
GWhMini-BHKW 23
GWh
TWhSolarthermie 13
20 GWth
GWel TWh
TWh0.6
GWth TWh
TWh
W-Speicher
TWh
TWh76
6
4182
StrombedarfTraktion
Solarthermie 12 6
TWh
73TWh
25 TWhBrennstoffe
55220
100% Wert 2010
335
TWh
TWh
Treibstoff Verkehr
55TWh
420 TWh
Brennstoff-basierte Prozesse in
Industrie und Gewerbe
gesamt 445 TWhSolarthermie
%
4155
© F
raun
hofe
r ISE
Optimization of Germany’s future energy system based on hourly modeling
REMod-D
Renewable Energy Model – Deutschland
Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014
© Fraunhofer ISE
26 © Fraunhofer ISE
TWh
TraktionH2-Bedarf
45
11TWh
TWh39
TWh
14TWh
Einzelgebäude mit Sole-Wärmepumpe
Solarthermie
11
Solarthermie 8 Gebäude9
TWhel. WP Luft 43
TWh
TWh44
4
Einzelgebäude mit Gas-Wärmepumpe
13TWh
14 4
W-Speicher
GWth TWh 60 TWh
82TWh
220TWh
420
22 GWth TWh 103 GWh51 W-Speicher14el. WP Sole
Biomasse
TWh
0
TWh15
KWK-BHKW
Solarthermie 13
TWh
Strombedarf gesamt (ohne
Strom für Wärme und MIV)
375
TWhTWh
3
GWgas 0
220
0TWh
0Sabatier Methan-Sp.
H2-Speicher
7 GWth TWh
TWh 41
3
GWth
Gas-WP
W-Speicher25
20
40TWh
388 TWh
20 GWth TWh Wärmenetze mit GuD-KWK
7 GWth TWh
W-Speicher
TWh Wärmenetze mit BHKW-KWK
Wärmebedarf gesamt
TWh
26
TWh
TWh
217TWh
82
16TWh
GWel
TWh 23
4TWh
9 Pump-Sp-KW 7TWh
TWh
6TWh
GasturbineW-Speicher
Steink.-KW Braunk.-KW Öl-KW3 GW 0 GW5 GW 0 GW 7 GW
Atom-KWPV Wind On Wind Off Wasserkraft
112TWh
103TWh
147
Batterien24 GWh
GW 120 GW 32 GW143
TWh
5TWh 60 GWh TWh
TWh
Einzelgebäude mit Luft-Wärmepumpe
GWth
Gebäude8
TWh
7TWh 50
14
4 TWh
TWh
19 GWth TWh GWh
Einzelgebäude mit Gaskessel
TWhGaskessel 71 Gebäude
32 GWth
0
4
Gebäude59
0.0
TWh3734
Solarthermie 6 W-Speicher
Gebäude15
27 GWh
23TWh
TWh
TWh 173 GWh
3
TWh
ungenutzter Strom (Abregelung)
TWh0
TWh26
TWh12
TWh
TWh
5TWh
TWh
241 TWh
Gebäude4
87
TWh 6 TWh
Gebäude59
7 GWth TWh
3
TWh
WP zentral 20
KWK-GuD 2735 GWel TWh
20
60TWh
7
GW
Einzelgebäude mit Mini-BHKW
6 46
WP zentral 23
4
8TWh
TWh
Verkehr (ohne
Schienenverkehr/Strom)
Brennstoff-basierter Verkehr
Batterie-basierter Verkehr
Wasserstoff-basierter Verkehr
137
TWhTWh
TWhTWh
TWhTWhTWhTraktion gesamt
BrennstoffeTraktion
erneuerbare Energien primäre Stromerzeugung fossil-nukleare Energien
14 GWth TWh 56 GWh
86 TWhGeothermie 6 Gebäude
2 GWth
10
TWh
TWh108 TWh
57 TWh
0TWh
3TWh
TWh 173
Wärmenetze mit Tiefen-Geothermie
TWh
Brennstoffe
TWhErdgas 394
TWh
4
TWh22
TWh
Elektrolyse
8233 GWel
4
21TWh
0TWh
TWh 26
1 GW
GuD-KW
ungenutztWarmwasserRaumheizung290 TWh 98 TWh 2
Solarthermie
GWhMini-BHKW 23
GWh
TWhSolarthermie 13
20 GWth
GWel TWh
TWh0.6
GWth TWh
TWh
W-Speicher
TWh
TWh76
6
4182
StrombedarfTraktion
Solarthermie 12 6
TWh
73TWh
25 TWhBrennstoffe
55220
100% Wert 2010
335
TWh
TWh
Treibstoff Verkehr
55TWh
420 TWh
Brennstoff-basierte Prozesse in
Industrie und Gewerbe
gesamt 445 TWhSolarthermie
%
4155
© F
raun
hofe
r ISE
Electricity generation
Photovoltaics 147 GWel
Medium and large size CHP (connected to district heating)
60 GWel
Onshore Wind
120 GWel
Offshore Wind 32 GWel
Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014
© Fraunhofer ISE
27 © Fraunhofer ISE
TWh
TraktionH2-Bedarf
45
11TWh
TWh39
TWh
14TWh
Einzelgebäude mit Sole-Wärmepumpe
Solarthermie
11
Solarthermie 8 Gebäude9
TWhel. WP Luft 43
TWh
TWh44
4
Einzelgebäude mit Gas-Wärmepumpe
13TWh
14 4
W-Speicher
GWth TWh 60 TWh
82TWh
220TWh
420
22 GWth TWh 103 GWh51 W-Speicher14el. WP Sole
Biomasse
TWh
0
TWh15
KWK-BHKW
Solarthermie 13
TWh
Strombedarf gesamt (ohne
Strom für Wärme und MIV)
375
TWhTWh
3
GWgas 0
220
0TWh
0Sabatier Methan-Sp.
H2-Speicher
7 GWth TWh
TWh 41
3
GWth
Gas-WP
W-Speicher25
20
40TWh
388 TWh
20 GWth TWh Wärmenetze mit GuD-KWK
7 GWth TWh
W-Speicher
TWh Wärmenetze mit BHKW-KWK
Wärmebedarf gesamt
TWh
26
TWh
TWh
217TWh
82
16TWh
GWel
TWh 23
4TWh
9 Pump-Sp-KW 7TWh
TWh
6TWh
GasturbineW-Speicher
Steink.-KW Braunk.-KW Öl-KW3 GW 0 GW5 GW 0 GW 7 GW
Atom-KWPV Wind On Wind Off Wasserkraft
112TWh
103TWh
147
Batterien24 GWh
GW 120 GW 32 GW143
TWh
5TWh 60 GWh TWh
TWh
Einzelgebäude mit Luft-Wärmepumpe
GWth
Gebäude8
TWh
7TWh 50
14
4 TWh
TWh
19 GWth TWh GWh
Einzelgebäude mit Gaskessel
TWhGaskessel 71 Gebäude
32 GWth
0
4
Gebäude59
0.0
TWh3734
Solarthermie 6 W-Speicher
Gebäude15
27 GWh
23TWh
TWh
TWh 173 GWh
3
TWh
ungenutzter Strom (Abregelung)
TWh0
TWh26
TWh12
TWh
TWh
5TWh
TWh
241 TWh
Gebäude4
87
TWh 6 TWh
Gebäude59
7 GWth TWh
3
TWh
WP zentral 20
KWK-GuD 2735 GWel TWh
20
60TWh
7
GW
Einzelgebäude mit Mini-BHKW
6 46
WP zentral 23
4
8TWh
TWh
Verkehr (ohne
Schienenverkehr/Strom)
Brennstoff-basierter Verkehr
Batterie-basierter Verkehr
Wasserstoff-basierter Verkehr
137
TWhTWh
TWhTWh
TWhTWhTWhTraktion gesamt
BrennstoffeTraktion
erneuerbare Energien primäre Stromerzeugung fossil-nukleare Energien
14 GWth TWh 56 GWh
86 TWhGeothermie 6 Gebäude
2 GWth
10
TWh
TWh108 TWh
57 TWh
0TWh
3TWh
TWh 173
Wärmenetze mit Tiefen-Geothermie
TWh
Brennstoffe
TWhErdgas 394
TWh
4
TWh22
TWh
Elektrolyse
8233 GWel
4
21TWh
0TWh
TWh 26
1 GW
GuD-KW
ungenutztWarmwasserRaumheizung290 TWh 98 TWh 2
Solarthermie
GWhMini-BHKW 23
GWh
TWhSolarthermie 13
20 GWth
GWel TWh
TWh0.6
GWth TWh
TWh
W-Speicher
TWh
TWh76
6
4182
StrombedarfTraktion
Solarthermie 12 6
TWh
73TWh
25 TWhBrennstoffe
55220
100% Wert 2010
335
TWh
TWh
Treibstoff Verkehr
55TWh
420 TWh
Brennstoff-basierte Prozesse in
Industrie und Gewerbe
gesamt 445 TWhSolarthermie
%
4155
© F
raun
hofe
r ISE
Storage
Heat buffers in buildings Total 320 GWh (e.g. 7 Mio units with 800 Litres each)
Large scale heat storage in district heating systems Total 350 GWh (e.g. 150 units with 50.000 m³ each)
Pumped storage power plants 42 units with a total of 60 GWh
Stationary batteries Total 24 GWh (e.g. 8 Mio units with 3 kWh each)
Electrolysers with total capacity of 33 GWel (needed for mobility)
Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014
© Fraunhofer ISE
28 © Fraunhofer ISE
Investments vs. saved fuel cost in bill. € p.a.
Fuel price increase 2 % cumulatively avoided fuel cost 1072 bill. €
0 % 679 bill. €
1 % 851 bill. €
cumulative investments 515 bill. €
Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014
© Fraunhofer ISE
29
RE-Power Generation in Grids Support for Energy Sector in Chile
Optimizer Tool RE Technology Mix
(Invest & Operation)
Ressources Data base Power plants
Transmission capacities Demand profiles
Technology models of Renewable Energies
Site evaluation: Demand vs. resource
Technology-Mix Wind, PV, CSP, Gasturbines,..
Operation Strategies power plants
© Fraunhofer ISE
30
The global energy transformation is the challenge of our generation, it will be the first step of the needed transformation to sustainability.
A near-100% renewable energy system that is safe, cost-effective and sustainable is possible, at similar cost as today’s energy supply.
Solar technologies will be the key pillar of our future energy system
This includes solar thermal systems, solar photovoltaics, solar water desalination, and solar fuels for mobility
We are just at the beginning of this development, there are great economic opportunities ahead for countries and companies devoted to these technologies
Fraunhofer ISE is proud to support solar developments in Chile with the new Center for Solar Energy Technologies CSET, to be inaugurated tomorrow, Mai 28, 2015!
Solar Technologies for the Transformation of our Energy System
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Thank you for your Attention!
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Eicke R. Weber, Hans-Martin Henning and ISE coworkers
www.ise.fraunhofer.de