Solar Radiation Forecasting (Data Driven Model)Lufang Liu/Actuarial Science/Senior Year/Actuary

Bing DongBuilding Performance and Diagnostics Lab (BPD Lab)

• BACKGROUND STATEMENTS “leading” to the RESEARCH PROBLEM (please use bullet points to help get the points across)• The optimization of the operation cost is an important challenge for solar power

plants however their generation capacity varies largely with weather conditions• Hence solar radiation data forecasting has significant consequences • Forecasted sky cover data is commonly used in solar radiation forecasting model

yet it is expensive to obtain• Thus we want to a time series model (use previous and current solar radiation data

(collected from different directions) to forecast future solar radiation)• We also want to combine meteorological data such as ambient temperature, wind

speed and direction, relative humidity, and air pressure with previous solar radiation data to forecast future solar radiation

• RESEARCH PROBLEM • Formulating a solar radiation forecasting model through integrating the relation

among a variety of relevant data sets

METHODOLOGIES (as appropriate for your project)

• GENERAL APPROACH OF YOUR WORK/DESIGN OF PROJECT• Find the relation among data sets• Find a model best fits those data sets’ relation• Conduct error analysis to test the model

• MATERIALS OR DATA USED• Temperature• Ambient pressure • Relative humidity• Wind direction• Wind speed

• TECHNIQUES USED• Matlab Coding techniques• Multivariable regression analysis• Time series analysis• Artificial neural network

• NEW DATA OR RESULTS COLLECTED/GENERATED• Solar radiation (w/m2) collected per minute from five directions (vertically, north,

south,west, and east)• Two-minute data and three-minute data

Use of pictures, etc. to help get point across is encouraged!!!

PROGRESS REPORT (for your project)

• WHAT HAVE YOU COMPLETED TO DATE?• Sensors set up • Data preprocessing

• WHAT MORE DO YOU NEED TO DO?• Data analysis (determine the relationship between data sets)• Forecasting model generating • Error analysis

• WHAT DO YOU EXPECT TO PRESENT AT THE END OF THE SUMMER?• The final reliable forecasting model

• WHAT UNEXPECTED PROBLEMS HAVE YOU ENCOUNTERED?• The best challenge is to learn how to use the Matlab software package

• WHAT ADVICE WOULD YOU GIVE ANOTHER UNDERGRADUATE EMBARKING ON A SUMMER RESEARCH PROJECT?• Be sure to always communicate with others in the lab (students or professors)

• HOW HAS THIS PROJECT (THUS FAR) CHANGED YOUR PERCEPTIONS OF RESEARCH AND POSSIBLE GRADUATE SCHOOL OR CAREER PURSUITS?• I would like to continue my journey as becoming an actuary

• ANY OTHER COMMENTS ABOUT THE PROJECT OR SUMMER RESEARCH PROGRAM?• A great project to build up your resume and make you stand out in the interview

Use of pictures, etc. to help get point across is encouraged!!!