Renewable Energy Market Perspectives:

Solar PV

Dr Jeremy Leggett Chairman, Solarcentury

REVISION 2012

9 March, Tokyo

Slough, UK

Slough, UK

Slough, UK

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Solar Photovoltaics Global Market Overview

Fastest growing power-generation technology, up 72% in 2110 (c. 17GW)

2010 capacity 7x up on 2005 capacity

Solar PV, existing world capacity 1996 -2010

6

PV MARKET 2000-2011 - EU SHARE

1,500 1,800 2,300 2,800 4,000

5,400 7,000

9,500

15,700

22,900

39,700

67,500

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

PV cumulative capacity

EU ROW

27.2

7

PV MARKET 2011 (data mid february 2012)

2011 added 2011 Cumulative

Italy 9,300 12,800

Germany 7,500 24,700

China 2,200 3,100

USA 1,600 4,200

France 1,600 2,600

Japan 1,300 4,900

UK 860 970

Australia 770 1300

Belgium 600 1,600

Spain 400 4,200

RoE + RoW 2,670 8,230

Total MW 28,800 68,600

Italian market boomed, in an unsustainable way. Behind Italy and Germany, no large sustainable market exist so far in Europe France and Spain are constrained Outside EU, China has taken the first place, with US and JP following. More and more new markets but not mature yet.

Cambridgeshire, UK

Cornwall, UK

Oxfordshire, UK

Bari, Italy

P&G, Germany

Birmingham

Eden Centre, Cornwall, UK

Gazeley, Spain

Berlin

EnergyRoof for pitched roofs

UK’s first solar street: S Yorkshire HA Yorkshire, UK

Yorkshire

Pyrenees

London

Maidenhead

CGI of Blackfriars, London: world’s largest solar bridge

Eden Centre, Cornwall

CIS Tower, Manchester

Derby Quad, Derby

London Borough of Hackney

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

The technical potential of renewable energy technologies

to supply energy services exceeds current demands.

The technical potential of RE technologies to supply energy

services greatly exceeds current demands

Essex, UK

35% 140 South-facing roofs only

116% 460 All building-mounted

% UK

electricity

TWh per

year

Resource potential for UK solar electricity generation on buildings

4.6 TW solar

40%

5.8 TW wind

51%

1.3 TW

water

9%

5.8 TW

The potential in principle in the 11.5 TW world of 2030

3.8 m turbines (@ 5MW)

720,000 wave converters (@ 750 kW)

490,000 tidal turbines (@ 1MW)

5,350 geothermal plants (@ 100 MW)

900 HEP plants (@1.3 GW ….70% existing)

49,000 CSP plants (@ 300 MW)

40,000 PV plants (@300 MW)

1.7 bn PV rooftops (@ 3 kW)

Source: Jacobson & Delucchi, Scientific American, October 2009

RE growth has been increasing rapidly in recent years.

140 GW of new RE power

plant capacity was built in

2008-2009.

This equals 47% of all

power plants built during

that period.

RE capacity has been speeding up in recent years

140 GW of new RE

plant built 2008-2009

= 47% of all new

power capacity in that

period

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

…especially PV

17

New installed and decommissioned capacity in 2011 (EU)

Source: EPIA / EWEA

21,500

Business as usual is out of the question

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

RE costs have mostly been declining over time and this trend can be expected to continue

RE costs have declined in the past and further declines

can be expected in the future.

Source: IPCC SRREN 2011

Business as usual is out of the question

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Demand for energy services is increasing.

GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute

significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Source: IPCC SRREN 2011

RE costs are still higher than existing energy prices,

but in various settings RE is already competitive.RE levelized costs are still higher than most conventional energy but in various settings RE is already competitive

Source: IPCC SRREN 2011

“The next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare. The challenge is to use that time well. …..Our message to government and businesses is clear. Act. …..Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did.”

5 Chairmen and CEOs from a cross section of UK industry

jeremy.leggett@solarcentury.com

www.jeremyleggett.net

Twitter: @JeremyLeggett

www.solarcentury.com

www.SolarAid.org

www.peakoiltaskforce.net

Thank you

mailto:jeremy.leggett@solarcentury.commailto:jeremy.leggett@solarcentury.comhttp://www.jeremyleggett.nethttp://www.solarcentury.comhttp://www.SolarAid.orghttp://www.peakoiltaskforce.net