Solar Energy: The Sustainable Energy Mix Cornerstone for...
Transcript of Solar Energy: The Sustainable Energy Mix Cornerstone for...
Solar Energy:
The Sustainable Energy Mix
Cornerstone for Saudi Arabia
2
“...there shall be established a scientific city to be called, King Abdullah
City for Atomic and Renewable Energy” Royal Order No. A/35 3/5/1431 A.H.
عبداهلل الملك مدينة مدينة علمية تسمى نشأ ت هـ1431جمادى األولى 3في 35/األمر الملكي رقم أ. والمتجددةالذرية للطاقة
Target Capacity by 2032
Nuclear
Optimizing Energy Generation with Alternative
Energy Economic Sector Development
17 GW
54 GW Renewable
3
4
India 4%
China 2%
US 23%
KSA 0%
EU-27 37%
Today 2030
4% 6 11
2% 9 11
23% 20 16
45-50% 20 25-30
51% 24 27
Renewables
Nuclear
% of Electricity Generated from
Alternative Energy – Today vs. 2030
Solar Energy Development Targets
5
Target Solar Capacity by 2032
Solar PV
Maximizing solar deployment potential
16
25 Solar CSP
6
28 - 35
75 - 110
Installed
Capacity
(GW)
Energy
Generation*
(TWh/y)
* Load factor: PV = 0.2 – 0.25, CSP = 0.34 – 0.5
** Average hydrocarbon plant efficiency = 45%
33 - 46
99 - 145
Hydrocarbon
Fuel Saved**
(MMBOE/y)
7
1 3 16 9 2
13 11
2 6
6
11 14
31
899
358
185 33
70
196
401
930
34
Wind PV Biomass 2 CSP Geothermal
KSA Rest of Middle East
KSA % of Rest Middle
East & Africa 29% 37% 27% 68% 33%
KSA % of World 1% 4% 2% 36% 3%
Africa Rest of the World
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6
RE Capacity Installed by Technology GW in 2030
Solar Energy Deployment Roadmap
8
0 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 16
0 0 2
3
6 7
10 11
13 14 16
17 19
20 22
25 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
GW
Years
Cumulative installed capacity, GW
Solar CSP
Solar PV
The Case for Alternative Energy
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10
Industrial 17.9%
Agricultural 2.6%
Commercial 12.2%
Governmental 15.1%
Residential 52.2%
Building 79.5%
Source: Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) 2009
70%
consumed
by HVAC
Energy Consumption Patterns
Total of 193,472 GWH
Peak Power Demand Will Nearly Triple in Next 20 Years…
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
GW
YIC System
SOA Remote
SOA System
WOA Remote
WOA System
COA Remote
COA System
EOA Remote
EOA System
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2032
Source: ECRA 2010
121 GW
…Creating Tremendous Capacity Gap
Peak Demand
New Committed
Existing Diesel
Existing HFO
Existing Crude
Existing Gas v
v
v
v
v
GW
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2012 2020 2032
60 GW
(Approx.)
Year
Gap between peak demand and existing + planned capacity
12
Could impact ability to meet international oil demand
Business As Usual: KSA’s Petroleum Demand
Expected to Nearly Triple by 2032
*Total local consumption (transportation, industry, electricity, etc.)
2032
10.2
MBOE
2010
3.4*
MBOE
13 Source: Saudi Aramco 2010
14
Maximizing Return
Oil Saved
Economic Sector
Sustainability
How Much Can We Do ? Demand Growth
Demand Pattern
Technology Characteristics
How Much Should We Do ? Economics
Sustainability
Technology maturity
Summary of Saudi Arabia’s Alternative
Energy Program
• CONTRIBUTES to a sustainable future for Saudi Arabia
• PRESERVES non-renewable fossil fuel resources
• SAFEGUARDS Saudi Arabia’s international energy leadership
• ENSURES greater long-term global energy market stability
• TRANSFORMS KSA into the Kingdom of Sustainable Energy
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K∙A∙CARE Mandate
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Established by Royal Order April 17,
2010, the Mission is to be:
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…The driving force for making atomic and
renewable energy an integral part of a national
sustainable energy mix, creating and
leveraging the competitive advantages of
relevant technologies for the social
and economic development of the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia…
“
”
Key K.A.CARE Objectives
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• CREATE a sustainable economic sector for Saudi
Arabia anchored by local alternative energy
demand market
• CONTRIBUTE to job creation, GDP growth,
environmental footprint reduction and sustainable
development
• MAINTAIN highest levels of safety, security and
transparency
K.A.CARE
City
Investment
& Business
Internation
al Relations
Execution Policies &
Strategies
Regulatory
Human
Capacity
R&D &
Innovation
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Mandate
• SUGGEST alternative
energy mix
Execution of K.A.CARE Mandate
Sustainable and efficient
energy future for KSA
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• DEVELOP & LEAD
execution plans
• PLAN for and BUILD
physical city
Selecting the Optimum Energy Mix
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Parameters Affecting Energy Mix Development
Value chain
development
Economics
of
hydrocarbons
saved
Electricity and
desalination
demand patterns
Technology
choices
Regulatory and
physical
infrastructure
requirements
Human
capacity
development
22
Energy Mix
Criteria for Solar Energy Economic Sector
Sustainable Development
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Incentivize Manufacturing and Services Industry, Coupled with Incentivizing R&D, Innovation, and Human Capacity Development
Creating Industry Pull through Incentivize production of Solar Kwh, both for Utility Scale and Distributed Applications
Target Long Term Developmental Goals by Reducing Significantly KSA’s Greenhouse Gases Emissions in Power Generation as well as in Manufacturing
Annual Electricity Demand Pattern in KSA
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Week Number (July 2009 – August 2010)
MW
Seasonal change in peak
load exceeds 40%
1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113
127
141
155
169
183
197
211
225
239
253
267
281
295
309
323
337
351
365
GW
Day-Night Load Variation for Saudi Arabia
Uniform day-to-night
variation year round
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Night
Day
0 0 : 0 0 0 6 : 0 0 1 2 : 0 0 1 8 : 0 0 2 4 : 0 0
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
GW
Genera
tion
Demand
Peak load
Base load v
v
Daily load during a work day in August 2032
Daily load during a holiday in January 2032
Time of Day
Forecasted Daily Electricity Demand Pattern
2032
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Capacity Identification Using Technology –
Load Matching Approach
(Existing + Committed – Retiring) Start with known
hydrocarbon capacity in
target year X:
Required
Additional
Capacity
Base Load
Nuclear
+ Wind
+ Waste-to-Energy
+ Geothermal
Load
Following
Solar PV
Solar CSP
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Technology Installed Capacity Estimation
2032
60.5 GW Start with known
hydrocarbon capacity
in year 2032:
121 – 60.5 =
60.5 GW
Base Load
17 GW
9 GW
3 GW
1 GW
Load
Following
16 GW
25 GW
Source: ECRA, SEC, Team Analysis
Proposed Energy Mix
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Solar PV
Solar CSP
Hydrocarbons
Nuclear + Geothermal + Waste-to-Energy
16 GW
25 GW
21 GW
Load-Specific Technology Component of
the Proposed Energy Mix by 2032
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• PV will meet total day time demand year round
• NUCLEAR + GEOTHERMAL + WASTE-TO-
ENERGY will meet base-load demand up to night
time demand during winter
• CSP with storage will meet maximum demand
difference between PV and base-load technologies
• HYDROCARBONS will meet the rest of the demand
Solar Value Chain
Development
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Global Solar PV Energy Trends
32
991
278
108 76 54 43 38 20 15
197
5
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
200
9
201
21.3 1.7 2.1 2.7
3.8 5.3
7
9.8
15.4
19.4
27.7
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
1
Solar electricity costs - utility scale PV (c$/kWh)
Global installed capacity (GWp)
Electricity cost of ~10 c$/kWh in 2020 ~7 c$/kWh in 2030
200 GW installed in 2020 (10x)
Solar CSP LCOE Today
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Ouarzazate Concentrated Solar
Power IPP in Morocco:
• Capacity = 160 MW
• Technology = Parabolic Trough
with storage
• Levelized tariff = 18.971 c/KWh
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Manufacturing, EPC and O&M split
100
80
60
40
20
0
O&M
O&M
O&M O&M O&M
O&M
O&M
O&M
EPCEPC
EPC EPC
EPC
EPC
EPC
EPC
CSP Trough CSP Tower Silicon PV Thin Film PV HCPV Wind Geothermal Waste-to-
energy
Core Localization Localization not considered for industrial impact
Mirrors
Absorber
Structures
Turbine
Steam generator HTF Molten salt
Other
Structures
Mirrors Receptor
Steam turbine
Molten salt
Other
Integrated module manufac-turing
Tower
Rotor blades
Gearbox
Other
Nacelle housing Generator
Turbine
Cooling tower
Pre-heater
Condenser Other
Rest of manufacturing
Boiler
Air pollution control
Turbine & generator
Fuel & ash handling
Other Other
Integrated module manufac-turing
Polysilicon
Cell
Module
% total capex and opex throughout the plant lifetime
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Technology Elements
Wind • Blades
• Towers
• EPC & O&M
• Gearbox
• Generator
• Power converter
• Nacelle housing and
assembly
• Bearings
• Minor elements
Waste-to-
Energy
• EPC & O&M
• Steam Turbine
• Boiler
• Grate
• Other power block elements
• Minor elements
Geothermal • EPC and O&M
• Steam Turbine
• Heat exchanger
• Condenser
• Minor elements
CSP Technology Elements
Trough • Collector
• Mirror
• Absorber
• EPC & O&M
• Molten Salts
• HTF
• Steam turbine and
generator
• Storage Tank
• Other power block
elements
• Minor elements
Tower • Heliostat
• Mirror
• EPC & O&M
• Receiver
• Molten Salts
• Steam turbine and
generator
• Storage tank
• Other power block
elements
• Minor elements
PV Technology Elements
Thin Film • Integrated Module
Factory
• EPC & O&M
• Inverter
• Rest of balance of system
HCPV • Integrated Module
Factory
• Tracking System
• EPC & O&M
• Inverter
• Rest of balance of system
Silicon • EPC & O&M
• Poly Silicon
manufacturing
• Inverter
• Wafer
• Cell
• Module
• Rest of balance of system
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Potential RE Value Chain Components
Building a World-Class Solar Energy Sector:
Value Chain Development
Industrial
investment
Research,
development
and innovation
Technology
development
Education
and training Human capacity
development
36
Value Chain Development: Beyond the
Solar Cell and the Mirror
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Electricity
Generation
Industrial
Energy
Applications
Seawater
Desalination
& Water
Management
Applications
District &
Solar
Cooling
Localization of Solar Industry
38
Maximizing benefits of solar energy requires
localization policies …
…which depends
highly on local
skills…
…and cooperation
and JV’s
39
Value Chain Opportunities
Regulatory
environment
Development
of R&D
centers and
programs
Development
of local
human
capabilities
Leveraged
procurement
Feed-in tariff /
PPA
Bid
preparation
Value chain interfaces
Value chain
organization
capacity
building
Independent
quality
assurance
authority
Industrial
readiness program
(cost, quality,
delivery)
SME
development
program
FDI
attractiveness
and promotion
Stakeholder
engagement and
communication
Global
vendor
engagement
&
qualification
Value chain enablers
Value chain activation
Program
and project
structure
Certification
process
assistance
Monitor implementation Assist in JV/ partner
selection
Step 6 Step 7
Action plan
evaluation and
validation
Readiness
action plan
Identification &
prioritization
of preferred
local suppliers
Capability gap
assessment
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5
1 3 2 4 5 6 7
9
10 11 12 13 14 15
Alignment
with current
and planned
national
initiatives
8
16
Value Chain Activation Plan
The Road to Successful Implementation
40
41
Engagement with Local Stakeholders
Eco
nom
ic S
ub-S
ect
or Human Capacity
Development
Value Chain
Development
Research,
Development,
and Innovation
Technology
Acquisition
Policy, Rules and
Regulations
Incentives
Infrastructure
MoHE, TVTC, SABIC, Aramco, HDF
MCI, SAGIA, Chambers of Commerce, MODON,
RCJY
Commercial Banks
KACST, KAUST, SABIC, Aramco, SWCC, SEC
Venture Capital Management Firms
Commercial Banks
MCI, SAGIA, Shura Council
SIDF, PIF, SCB
MODON, RCJY, MCIT, MoT
PPP
42
Engagement with International Stakeholders
Eco
nom
ic S
ub-S
ect
or Human Capacity
Development
Value Chain
Development
Research,
Development,
and Innovation
Technology
Acquisition
Policy, Rules and
Regulations
Incentives
Infrastructure
International universities and training institutions
Export credit agencies, technology providers
Battelle, Franhofer, CSIRO
Venture Capital Management Firms
WTO, nuclear bilateral agreements
Export credit agencies
Multinational/international corporations
PPP
43
Clear Developmental Goals
Eco
nom
ic S
ub-S
ect
or Human Capacity
Development
Value Chain
Development
Research,
Development,
and Innovation
Technology
Acquisition
Policy, Rules and
Regulations
Incentives
Infrastructure
Saudization rate for solar energy service industry
KSA world leader in CSP technology exports
CSP development fully supported through local R&D
KSA ownership of world best performing CPV
technology
Technology and region-based FIT scheme
Energy mix not needing incentives anymore
Smart grid development and connectedness with
MENA region countries
PPP
44
Implementation Roadmap: Prioritization
Eco
nom
ic S
ub-S
ect
or Human Capacity
Development
Value Chain
Development
Research,
Development, and
Innovation
Technology
Acquisition
Policy, Rules and
Regulations
Incentives
Infrastructure
Research, Development, and Innovation
Value Chain Development
Technology Acquisition
Infrastructure
Human Capacity Development
Incentives
Policy, Rules and Regulations
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
45
Implementation Roadmap: Sequencing
Human Capacity
Development
Value Chain
Development
Research,
Development,
and Technology
Technology
Acquisition
Policy, Rules and
Regulations
Incentives
Infrastructure Key prerequisites
Sowing the seeds of
sector development
Sustaining sector
development
Sector transition to
maturity
Tim
e
Rese
arc
h,
Develo
pm
en
t,
an
d I
nn
ovati
on
Valu
e C
hain
Develo
pm
en
t
Tech
no
logy A
cq
uis
itio
n
Infr
ast
ructu
re
Hu
man
Cap
acit
y D
evelo
pm
en
t
Incen
tives
Policy, Rules and Regulations
Strategic objectives
The Kingdom of Sustainable Energy
46
Thank You
47