Solar Energy markets in Denmark, Peter Ahm 24092015
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Transcript of Solar Energy markets in Denmark, Peter Ahm 24092015
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Content
• PV & Solar Thermals Globally (brief)• PV & Solar Thermals in Denmark– History– Recent Market Trends & Support Instruments– EU regulations– National PV Strategy– Future Trends
• Concluding Remarks
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PV Globally
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Development of the globale PV market
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PV Global Status and Trends
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PV in Denmark, 24.09.15 6
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PV’s Share in Power Production
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Trends (1/2)
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Trends (2/2)
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Recommendations
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Price Trends – IEA Forecast
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Recent Key Numbers for Utility Scale PV
• EU utility scale PV: > 5 MW @ $c 8-11/kWh (Germany)• RSA, Juwi: 558 kW (track.) @ $c 7,46/kWh• Dubai, ACWA Power: 200 MW @ $c 5,98/kWh• USA, First Solar: 100 MW (TF) @ $c 3,84/kWh (PTC!)• WE ARE ALREADY REACHING THE IEA 2050 TARGETS
• Why this trend? Not only falling cost of PV• Optimized EPC• Reduced soft cost• Cheaper financing
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Future of PV• More than 50 countries globally has established
targets for PV - more than 350 GW by 2020.• Current top 6 countries (installed capacity)
Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, France and China had 76 % of installed capacity by 2012, but only 61 % of global target by 2020: new markets!
• Reaching 350 GW by 2020 will require ~ 40 GW/Y from 2013 (!) up to 2020; current production capacity is ~ 60 GW/Y so no problem.
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Forecasting Volume and Price
Volume (c-Si) Price (USD2011):• 2013 100 GW 2013 0,90/W• 2022 300 GW 2022 0,55/W • 2030 1 TW 2030 0,35/W• 2050 10 TW 2050 0,28-0,32/W Source: PA Energy Ltd.
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PV Driving Storage in the Grid
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Global Grid Storage Market Overview
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Solar Thermals Globally
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Marketdevelopment
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Contribution of Solar Thermals
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Renewable Energy Growth RatesSolar Thermals Decreasing Growth
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Main markets
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Main TechnologiesWorld
Europe
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Market Development in EU + Ch
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PV History of Denmark (1/3)• Very first Danish
professional projects at Jydsk Telefon
1979
19901987
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• Greenland 1980-95• The telecommunication backbone of 2,500 km on the west coast is PV powered • Most navigational aids PV powered• > 250 kW installed
PV History of Denmark (2/3)
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•UVE Programme in 1989• Integration of all public
solar energy activities under the Energy Authority• Solar Energy Committee for
all solar technologies• Many PV projects initiated;
Denmark in IEA PVPS 1993• Net-metering (pilot) 1989• National PV Strategy started
in 2001• New government in 2001 – stop!
PV History of Denmark (3/3)
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A series of PV projects on residential houses: Sol-by (30 PV houses on same grid radial); Sol-300 (focus on end-user behaviour); Sol-1000 (focus on deployment aspects)
Initial National Projects – a Restart 2002
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PV-OPT project – in 2007-8
• Purpose: optimized design under DK conditions• Base: about 3 MW installed – data available• Results:– Design tools OK if operated decently/professionally– Insolation data more uncertain – various sources –
best measured data from DMI (16 stations)– Little transparent operational data available inter-
nationally and nationally– Need to collect DK data continuosly
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Stor skala PV anlæg i Danmarki 2011 - 12
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Recent National Projects• Skive Municipality– Target 1 MW (revised target: 1,5 MW)
• PVIB (EU EcoGrid)– Target 5 MW on Bornholm
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PV Market in Denmark
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
kW
kW
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20110.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Growth rate[%]
Growth rate[%]
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Technical Potential Wind
Electricity: 45 wind farms each 35 km2 (200 MW)Gross energy: 280 wind farms each 35 km2
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Technical Potential Biomass
• With agriculture for food: about 40 % of energy• Only energy crops: about 65 % of energy
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Technical potential PV
Electricity: 323 km2 (@ 360 TJ per km2)Gross Energy: 2260 km2
¼ of built up area =½ of electricity demand
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PV in Denmark – Recent Market Trends (1/6)
• In 2012 was installed about 70.000 plants equalling 407 MW. “ the Boom year”!
• In 2013 was installed about 29.000 plants equalling 155 MW.
• I 2014 was installed 1.860 plants equalling 42 MW.
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Energinet.dk (TSO) registers all grid-connected PV plants
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PV in Denmark (2/6)week 32 2015
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PV in Denmark 3/6)
Sum of ´0 - 1
Sum of ´1 - 2
Sum of ´2 - 3
Sum of ´3 - 4
Sum of ´4 - 5
Sum of ´5 -6
Sum of ´6 -10
Sum of ´10 -20
Sum of ´20 -100
Sum of >100
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
135 1074
5090
90816997
46854
544 215 201 30
Number of PV system per kW grouping installed in 2012
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PV in Denmark (4/6)
Sum of ´0 - 1
Sum of ´1 - 2
Sum of ´2 - 3
Sum of ´3 - 4
Sum of ´4 - 5
Sum of ´5 -6
Sum of ´6 -10
Sum of ´10 -20
Sum of ´20 -100
Sum of >100
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
274828
21743262 2924
17228
586 5601114
420
Number of PV systems per kW grouping installed in 2013
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PV in Denmark (5/6)
Sum of ´0
- 0,99
Sum of ´1
- 1,99
Sum of ´2
- 2,99
Sum of ´3
- 3,99
Sum of ´4
- 4,99
Sum of ´5
-5,99
Sum of ´6
-6,99
Sum of ´7
-7,99
Sum of ´8
-8,99
Sum of ´9
-9,99
Sum of ´1
0 -19,99
Sum of ´2
0 -29,99
Sum of ´3
0 -49,99
Sum of ´5
0 -99,99
Sum of ´1
00 -199,99
Sum of ´2
00 -499,99
Sum of ´5
00 -999
Sum of ´1
000 -1'999
Sum of >
20000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
53
128
202
359
139
93
310
34 3620
164
83102
5625
52
2 1 0
Number of PV systems per kW grouping installed in 2014
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PV in Denmark (6/6)• Politically influenced market – rather unstable
– DK/EC conflict re. PSO.• Nett-metering scheme definitions set the
market. • Trend towards a new market (for private and
commercial) targeting self consumption.• Threats: taxation, price for grid-access.• Potentials: “grid defection” (w. storage),
reduced KVA max. payment.
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Support Instruments in Denmark (1/3)
• Up to end of 2012 net-metering time window of 1 year. Value of a kWh: about €c 0,30.
• Transitory regulations in terms of “additional support” ranging €c 9 – 17 depending on time of contracting and plant size/application; basic support €c 8/kWh for 10 Y, next 10 Y €c 5,3 – then expected Nordpool market price
• Mid 2013 new law (no.: 900) – finally!
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Support Instruments in Denmark (2/3)• Law 900 submitted to the EC for approval (state
support regulations) – refused and questions to the PSO system.
• Additional support instruments in freeze during DK-EC negotiations up to spring 2015.
• Interim solution found up to end of 2016; before DK to elaborate and get approval for a new PSO scheme.
• PV ”lots” (3 x 20 MW + 1 x 20 MW) offered for additional support ranging €c 10 to 15 kWh depending on ”lot” and time.
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Support Instruments in Denmark (3/3)
• 01.07.14 new EC regulations on competition and state support – ”common sense” interpretation.
• Three new requirements to the Danish PSO:– PV plants < 500 kW: OK.– PV plants 05 – 1 MW: market price + ”adder”; balancing
obligatory; no support when prices negative.– PV plants > 1 MW: tendering – transparent!
• New procedures for applications: first permission!• New evaluation criteria: incentivise!
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Business Models for PV
• Direct capital grants have in general not been successful and do not promote quality and performance.
• Feed-in-tariff (FIT) has been good at kick-starting markets but only for a limited time and does require often adjustments to reflect cost.
• Net-metering as FIT, but raise the question of payment fro grid access.
• P.t. the model in Europe is ”own consumption”
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Danish National PV Strategy (1/2)• Aims at help co-ordination of the various
programmes in support research, development and demonstration (R,D&D) and at assisting applicants in focussing their applications for support. Deployment addressed as a ”catalogue of ideas” – no conflict with the political process.
• First Strategy in 2005 compiled by the Energy Agency and the power sector and involving a broad set of key stakholders in a dialogue.
• Strategies exist on various energy technologies.
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Danish National PV Strategy (2/2)• Strategy last revised in 2009 – now in collaboration
with the Danish PV Association (DSF).• The Energy Agency decided mid 2015 there was a
need to revise the PV Strategy (this time without direct collaboration with the power sector) but in collaboration with DSF and again a broad set of stakeholders. Joint format for new strategies.
• The Strategy is expected completed by end of 2015• A similar strategy for solar thermals – last revised in
2007
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Small scale solar thermals too expensiveLarge Scale Growing – District Heating
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Solar Thermals for District Heating Set to Grow
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Solar Thermals Best Use of Area
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Solar Thermals in Denmark
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The Sun May Rise Again for Solar Energy in Denmark
• Power from PV cheaper than from off-shore wind• New small and large PV with no additional support
(0,60 DKK/kWh 10 Y, 0,40 kr DKK/kWh next 10 Y) • A national PV strategy is under preparation• MoE launches call for large scale PV (< 2,4 MW)• Large scale solar thermals for district heating on
the rise, small scale suffers and for residential housing may be replaced by PV powered water heaters.
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Thanks for your attention!
Peter AhmPA Energy Ltd.Snovdrupvej 16, DK-8340 Malling DenmarkTel. +45 86 93 33 33Email: [email protected]