Globalization, Digitization & Competition: Forces For Positive Change
Solar competition, positive change, and energy efficiency
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Transcript of Solar competition, positive change, and energy efficiency
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
There's a word in SpanishItalian and GermanIn sign language, morse code, semaphore and gibberish . . .
Elvis Costello
If you want to go fast, go alone.
If you want to go far, go together.
Integrated Design Process
Arc
hite
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ME
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Str
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Civ
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Lan
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G.C
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Sub
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Off
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The 10 Decathlon Contests
1. Architecture 200 pts2. Engineering 150 pts3. Market Viability 150
pts4. Communications 100
pts5. Comfort Zone 100 pts6. Appliances 100 pts7. Hot Water 100 pts8. Lighting 100 pts9. Energy Balance 100
pts10. Getting Around 100
pts
Client
BuilderDesign Lead
Struct. Eng.
Waste Sp.
Structural Sub.
Energy Modeler
Planner
Landscape Arch.
Mech Sub.
Habitat Sp.
M.E.P. Eng.
Civil Sub.
Millwork
Finish Subs.
Electrical Sub.
Commissioning AgentAnd so on . . .
Composite Master Builder
Change begins with information.
Anita Roddick
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new reality that makes the existing reality obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
Boston, MA
Pop. 589,181
Boston, MA 3-meter sea level rise
Pop. 589,181
Source: Architecture 2030 and Google
Fossil Fuel Resources & CO2 Emissions Source: Adapted from J. Hansen et al.: Dangerous Human-made Interference with Climate, 2007
20% all buildings over 7 years
10 days
30 days
$500,000,000
300,000
Maryland Statistics
34 MM tons CO2 emissions
95% national average of lbs/MWh generated
40 states have lower average retail price for residential customers on a cents/kWh basis
39 states have lower retail price across all sectors (residential, commercial, industrial)
61%
6%
2%
1%
30%
0%
0%
Coal Oil Gas BiomassNuclear Wind Solar
Maryland Generation Resource Mix
Source: Leonardo-energy.org
Source: nwcommunityenergy.org
Source: Architecture 2030.org
Sokolow and Pacala, Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University
http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/CMI_Stab_Wedges_Movie.swf
Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4)
CO2 Capture & Storage (3)
Stabilization Triangle
Renewable Fuels& Electricity (4)
Forest and Soil Storage (2)
Fuel Switching(1)
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
2007 2057
8 GtC/y
16 GtC/y
TriangleStabilization
Nuclear Fission (1)
Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled Produce today’s electric capacity
with double today’s efficiency
Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings
Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge
There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055
Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today
Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA
Efficiency
Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity,
OR
Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel
Photo courtesy of DOE A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30
Wind Electricity
Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program
Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054
A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times
Solar Electricity
Source: Architecture 2030.org
Area Lighting16.4%
Task Lighting
3.0%Plug Loads
15.2%
Pumps11.3%
Fans8.7%
Gas Heat15.8%
Gas DHW0.2%
Tower1.2%
DX Cooling28.4%
ASHRAE 90.1-1999 ModelTotal Cost: $131,902/ yr
Normalized Cost: $1.889/ sf/ yr
Gas Heat9.9%
Plug Loads16.3%
Task Lighting
3.2%Area
Lighting15.2%
DX Cooling20.5%
Savings21.9%
Gas DHW0.2%
Pumps7.1%Fans
5.4%
Tower0.3%
As-Designed ModelTotal Cost: $102,988/ yr
Normalized Cost: $1.475/ sf/ yr
Sustainable Development
To be sustained Nature: earth,
biodiversity, ecosystems
Life support: ecosystem services, resources, environment
Community: cultures, groups, places
To be developed People: child
survival, life expectancy, education, equity, equal opportunity
Economy: wealth, productive sectors, consumption
Society: institutions, social capital, states, regions
T.E.Graedel, 2002
EconomyEconomyAttract capital Increase tax baseCreate jobs
BiosphereBiosphereNatural Capital:Clean air, clean water, soil, pollination
SocietySocietyHealthCulture & historySocial equity
The Three P’s: Planet, Prosperity, People
Capacity of Living Systems
Margin for Action
Population and demand
Hitting the Wall of the Funnel
?• Habitat disruption• Endangered species• Human health risks• Resource shortages• Social disruption• Government regulations• Higher prices• Climate change
RestorationNon-sustainable activities
Effects:
Nature’s Operating System
From William McDonough and Paul Hawken
Waste = food
eliminate the concept of waste
Use current solar income
green plants can do it, we can too
Respect diversity
value nature’s services – live off interest, not capital
Gabrielli Design Studio, LLC
We have exactly enough time. . .starting now.
Donella Meadows